Atlanta Braves Top 20 Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Oct 25, 2009 5:36 PM EDT
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Top 20 Atlanta Braves Prospects for 2010.
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do so. The list and grades are based on a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all these players can be found in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book, now available for pre-order..
1) Jason Heyward, OF, Grade A: A complete prospect, perfect Five Tool/Seven Skill player.
2) Freddie Freeman, 1B, Grade B+: We'll have to see if the wrist injury cuts into his power development, but given his age he gets some slack.
3) Julio Teheran, RHP, Grade B: I still worry about his health and durability.
4) Randall Delgado, RHP, Grade B: A rare thing, an Atlanta pitching prospect that might be underrated. Usually Braves guys get too much hype.
5) Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, Grade B: Acquired from the Yankees in the Vazquez deal, Vizcaino provides another outstanding young arm for the lower levels of the system.
6) Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Grade B: If his command holds up he can be a bullpen force.
7) Mike Minor, LHP, Grade B-: Borderline Grade B. Excellent pitchability with pretty good stuff. I hope I get to see him in Arizona Fall League.
8) Christian Bethancourt, C, Grade B-: Grade includes a lot of projection.
9) Zeke Spruill, RHP, Grade B-: Younger and more projectable than Hoover, but I worry about his durability.
10) J.J. Hoover, RHP, Grade C+: A personal favorite. Need to see him at higher levels, but I love the K/IP and K/BB ratios.
11) David Hale, RHP, Grade C+: Power arm from Princeton, another possible relief mainstay if the command is there.
12) Mycal Jones, SS, Grade C+: Good speed, strikeout rate is rather high, will he hit at higher levels?
13) Brett DeVall, LHP, Grade C+: Would rank higher if not for questions about health.
14) Cody Gearrin, RHP, Grade C+: Another possible bullpen reinforcement.
15) Adam Milligan, OF, Grade C+: Great numbers in his pro debut, scouting reports are mixed, poor BB/K ratio is a caution flag. Could rank as high as 11th.
16) Michael Dunn, LHP, Grade C+: Acquired from the Yankees in the Vazquez deal, Dunn provides a power arm to help in the 2010 major league pen.
17) Jose Ortegano, LHP, Grade C+: Could fit as fifth starter or swingman.
18) Robinson Lopez, RHP, Grade C+: Good rookie ball arm, a long way from being ready but worth watching.
19) Cody Johnson, OF, Grade C+: Enormous power potential but with huge holes in his game.
20) Luis Valdez, RHP, Grade C+: Older prospect, scouts don't love him, but has been great in the upper minors and could help in the pen. Might knock him down to a Grade C.
21) Scott Diamond, LHP, Grade C: Like Osuna and Ortegano, he could appear in the majors as soon as 2010. Doesn't have great stuff, but could be useful under the right circumstances.
22) Dimaster Delgado, LHP, Grade C: Good numbers in the Sally League, but another mediocre-stuff lefty according to the reports I have.
Others (all Grade C right now): Thomas Berryhill, RHP; Caleb Brewer, RHP; Erik Cordier, RHP; David Francis, RHP; Cory Harrilchak, OF; Ty'Relle Harris, RHP; Brandon Hicks, SS; Jeff Lyman, RHP; Chris Masters, LHP, Brett Oberholtzer, LHP; Angelo Paulino, RHP; Cory Rasmus, RHP; Gerardo Rodriguez, 1B; Cole Rohrbaugh, LHP; Riann Spanjer-Furstenberg, 1B; Tyler Stovall, LHP; Richard Sullivan, LHP; Jacob Thompson, RHP; Matt Young, OF (might get cut due to space).
I ended up writing about 40 guys, but I have to say that I'm not overly impressed with this system. They have a near-certain superstar in Heyward, a good first base prospect in Freeman, and then a huge bunch of questionmarks. The lack of offensive talent beyond the two elite guys is very striking. I do not believe in Cody Johnson. I think the strikeouts are going to eat him alive.
Even the pitching, historically the strength of the system, strikes me as overrated compared to the "pitching factory" reputation. There are a whole bunch of projectable young arms at the lower levels, but even the best ones (Teheran, R. Delgado) still have a lot to prove. There is the raw material for a good bullpen here (Kimbrel, Gearrin, Hale), and Minor looks like a solid strike-thrower who will advance rapidly. I love Hoover but we really need to see him outside the Sally League. They'll probably get one usable pitcher out of the finesse lefty group (Ortegano, Osuna, Diamond, D. Delgado) but I don't know which one it will be. I also have no idea how to rank Rohrbaugh at this stage. You could interchange him with any of the last three.
This is only the second team I've done, so it will be interesting to see how they compare to other organizations and perhaps I'm being too hard on them. As always, I'm open to suggestions and discussion, and will to back and revisit the grades as I get further into the book process.
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Im a big fan of Mycal Jones
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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I would have liked to see
Hefflinger and Rose included somewhere.
by another know it all on Oct 25, 2009 5:56 PM EDT reply actions
Like the list
It seems like the first 5 or 6 are pretty obvious and then it’s a real crap shoot. Huge difference in a year after graduations and trades (Hanson, Schafer, Gorkys, Flowers, Gilmore, Locke). Having a huge prospect like Heyward definitely helps take some of the sting out of what has suddenly become a relatively thin system (though one with a lot of upside).
Interesting to see three ‘09 draftees in the top 11 (Minor, Hale, and Jones). I’m assuming (considering the general criticism of the Braves’ draft) that this is more because of the weakness of the system overall than anything else. That being said, Hale and Jones are interesting and should be fun to follow.
My list:
1. Heyward
2. Teheran
3. Freeman
4. Betancourt
5. Kimbrel
6. R. Delgado
7. Spruill
8. Hoover
9. Milligan
10. Rohrbough
11. DeVall
12. E. Osuna
13. Minor
14. D. Delgado
15. Matt Young
16. C. Johnson
17. Pruneda
18. Ortegano
19. Stovall
20. Hale
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
They’re the same age (Minor was born a month and a day after Osuna). Mike Minor has pitched ~30 professional innings, Osuna has pitched 349. He’s ahead of him developmentally, I don’t think their ceilings are all that different (Minor’s is probably a number 3 starter where as Osuna is probably a 4/5/swingman). Osuna’s professional experience and track record surpasses Minor’s advantage in upside (which isn’t really all that much, anyway) for me.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
Robinson Lopez
Many Braves fans are really sleeping on this kid, he’s the same age as Teheran and doesn’t get as much pub but has comparable stuff to Teheran and R. Delgado. Unlike Delgado he skipped over the DSL and started in the GCL where he put up better number than Delgado. He was consistently 94-96 with his FB, has a great change and a slurve that is really coming along according to the scouts. He may start next season in Rome so many Braves fans will really get a chance to see him for the first time and not just see stats. He should definitely be in the Top 20.
I think this system is pretty strong
but I must like Teheran and Bethancourt a lot more than John does
I think John's list accurately reflects its strengths
There is a lot of talent, but much of it is a good ways away. I like both those guys as well, but I think their grades are very appropriate, given their respective risk.
Cody Johnson
I’m not a fan by any means, his strikeouts are ridiculous, but just the pure power has to place him in the top 20 I’d think even if there is a tiny chance of him ever being a productive major leaguer.
R.I.P Jazz #6
exactly what i was thinking
the top 20 thing.
i'll think about it
I’ll think about it. No way i can give him higher than a Grade C at this point though.
by John Sickels on Oct 25, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions
I'd agree with that
Out of all Braves fans I’ve talked to about Johnson, I’m one of the most pessimistic. I really think the guy is destined to be a minor league slugger who maybe becomes a source of power off someone’s bench, but even with that view, the tiny chance of him putting that insane power to use puts him ahead of some of the low-level fringe backend guys.
R.I.P Jazz #6
Question on Heyward
How was it that he slid to the middle of the first round in 2007? I remember almost from the time the pick was made people saying that Heyward was an elite talent, that Atlanta got a steal with him there and Heyward being rated higher than quite a few guys who went ahead of him…
How did he end up going at #14?
Scouts werent sure about him
everyone in high school pitched around him, so no one knew just how good he really was.
hohohhohohoh its the offseason, time to rosterbate in public places
there are a lot who theorize he threatened not to sign with anyone but the braves
that probably would have gotten out by now, though.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 25, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions
It was also a draft with a lot of high-end talent
Of the 13 people taken before him, only a couple are busts.
There was just enough uncertainty around him for teams to go with another player.
by OldDutchPots on Oct 25, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
Hugely talented draft. Folks who went ahead of him:
David Price
Mike Moustakas
Josh Vitters
Daniel Moskos
Matt Wieters
Ross Detwiler
Matt LaPorta
Casey Weathers
Jarrod Parker
Madison Bumgarner
Phillippe Aumont
Matt Diminguez
Beau Mills
Ton of Arms, and some heavy-duty college bats that could help their teams sooner than and with the higher degree of liklihood than a high school OF. From what I remember, Heyward was considered on raw talent to be a top 5 candidate, but that due to a mix of organizational needs and cost-of-signing, that he was expected to fall below that but still in the top 10, and that it was a shock on draft day that he fell to the Braves at 14. I remember that pretty distinctly.
Looking back here at Mr. Sickel’s draft thread and follow-up, people were throwing Heyward’s name out from the 7 spot on, and John called him the steal of the draft. But hey, Cleveland got Beau Mills out of the deal, so…. (drinks)
this is part true
the well-documented answer for this is that he was pitched around, and he has extraordinary strike zone judgment and patience, so he was just not swinging a lot. being in their backyard, the braves could afford to scout him, and thus had a better idea of what he could do when he did swing.
i think it’s also important to note that he fits their traditional drafting strategy well, being a projectable high schooler who would sign for approx. slot.
by son.of.sourman on Oct 26, 2009 12:41 AM EDT up reply actions
albert pujols
we wonder how heyward went ALLLL the way to number 14…..
HOW DID Pujols last till the 13th ROUND?!?!?!?!?
really how did this happen??
Pujols was a chubby Community College shortsop
Tough to judge a players skill when he is playing against that kind of talent. Just like Heyward. There aren’t a huge number of guys who get drafted high when playing for a community college.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by Matt Garrioch on Oct 25, 2009 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Pujols at Memphis
I remember when Jose Pujols played briefly for the Memphis Redbirds in 2000 for the PCL playoffs. He was called up from Peoria, I think. Anyway none of us had heard of him (and my circle there was pretty well rounded with both minor league and Cardinals organization nuts). We were all like “Who is this kid?” “I don’t know, never heard of him.” “He was in A ball all year, guess he’ll be playing for us in a year or two.” We had no idea.
yep
i saw him on the showcase circuit in 1998 and although he was living in Missouri, just about everyone there assumed he was 2-3 years older than he was listed. He looked ridiculous playing against high school kids, looked as old as the coaches.
Jordan Schafer
I know he played 50 games for the Braves this season and thus doesn’t qualify for the list. But since he’s likely back in AAA next year, where would you rank him?
co-GM, Cienfuegos Chicken Roasters, DE League (Dynasty), CBS
current MiLB roster: Dayan Viciedo, Jeremy Hellickson, Jose Tabata, Jenrry Mejia, Brad Lincoln, Jaff Decker, Juan Duran, Adys Portillo, Yorman Rodriguez, Cesar Valdez, Daniel Duffy, and Esmil Rogers.
Looks pretty fair to me
Probably couple small disagreements I’d have, but looks pretty fair overall. I think, in terms of organizational rankings, the Braves might rank relatively high (say top 15) on account of depth, which sort of shows in John’s grades with the number of C+ guys that John has so far.
Heyward - a safer top prospect
Heyward deserves all the accolades and based on production and talent is the best minor talent last year. I do not disagree on the A rating either.
However, I am not sold on him being a 7 tool talent. His defense is slightly above average and speed is average (most likely not play out in MLB career).
His calling is his offense and furthermore, factually speaking, his offensive appeal is more due he has a higher floor (less likely to fail) than an extremely higher ceiling (be a top 5 offensive talent in his peak). He is a safer top prospect due to his good contact rate and excellent plate discipline.
Just my opinion.
I have to disagree with you. Heyward has better than just slightly above average defense and, while his speed is only slightly above average, he really seems to know how to use it efficiently, which brings to mind Nate McLouth.
Heyward
For his defense to be slightly above average he’ll need to be routinely +9 over a full season in the corner. I have a heard time believing that is going to happen.
Wouldn't being routinely +9 over a full season in the corner make him well above average?
by Adam J. Morris on Oct 26, 2009 11:02 AM EDT up reply actions
don't you DARE even say one negative thing about the next god
don’t do it. he’s basically a lock to be the best player ever.
baseball rules.
Ever since
The Royals drafted Mousuckass you have been really hating on Heyward why?!?!
Seriously
What issues do you have with Heyward?!?! Has he personally done something to you or you still think that Moustakas is a better player than Heyward will ever be?!?! What is it answer the question seriously.
seriously?
i’ve answered this before.
some people have treated Heyward like he’s a lock to be a HOF caliber player. therefore i am making fun of those people that think that. i have absolutely nothing against him as a player or prospect.
baseball rules.
disagree with this statement
As the other guy said, his defense is considered to be pretty good in right with a good arm. He’s not a burner on the basepath but he’s got decent speed and is an excellent baserunner so he puts all of that to use.
I’m also not sure where you got the idea that he doesn’t have an extremely high ceiling. I easily see him as a guy, who with his plate discipline and projectable power (he still has room to fill out) could average around .300/.400/.500 for his prime while playing a good right field. That’s worth a number 1 ranking.
R.I.P Jazz #6
agree
i don’t see how anyone can really criticize him as a prospect. He doesn’t have burner speed? Neither does Mauer, Pujols, Howard, Arod, etc, etc. If thats the best they can do then they are really nit-picking.
IMO, the kid will hit 310-330 with solid power numbers in his prime. A .320/.410/.500 line would put him in the top 5 players in the game. If thats not an “A” prospect then what is?
Cody Johnson
Cody Johnson has to be on this list. Are you really telling me that players like Valdez and Ozuna have a better chance of contributing at the Major League level? Seriously…..I love you Sickels, but c’mon.
by sheetskout on Oct 25, 2009 8:21 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
johnson
I’ll think more about it but I am a johnson skeptic. he has maybe a 20% chance to be Russ Branyan and about an 80% chance of doing nothing. Valdez probably has a 50% chance of being a useful middle reliever.
by John Sickels on Oct 25, 2009 9:30 PM EDT up reply actions
I don't disagree with you on Johnson
Though I’d add he’s probably got a 2% chance to be an Adam Dunn. His development just hasn’t really happened thus far. He’s gotten a little bet better at the things he was already good at and made no progress in the areas that he struggles in. But I disagree on Valdez. I’d set the over/under at 1/2 of meaningful outs he’ll get in MLB in his career and take the under. Not that it isn’t useful to chew meaningless innings, bu guys with that ability and nothing more are a dine a dozen. I don’t really consider them prospects.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
by PWHjort on Oct 25, 2009 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
Do you not factor in the fact that ended up at AA as a 20 year old? He has been consistently moving up a level a season since he was drafted out of high school, and despite the strikeouts has done a pretty good job of keeping up with the competition.
I mean, the guy is in the middle of working a huge hitch OUT of his swing and figuring out the left field position (after playing infield in high school) and still moving up at a quick pace. I haven’t seen it myself, but a very trustworthing fan has constantly noted the differences in Cody’s swing from when he was drafted. Give the guy a chance…
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 26, 2009 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
He played in 6 games at AA
Saying he was “20 in AA” is misleading. He was in A+ the whole year. And due to the strikeouts he hit .242 there.
Hey, a promotion is a promotion. Point is, he earned it as a 20 yr old and ended the season at AA…
A .242/.345/.517 line at A+ isn’t terrible, especially when you factor in the notorious pitcher’s park at Myrtle Beach, the terrible lineup (once Heyward and Freeman left early for AA, it hurt even worse), and the fact that he led the league in home runs.
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 26, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions
striking out over 40% of the time in the low minors is terrible. No one is doubting his power, but if A-ball pitchers are getting him to whif that much, then it’s almost a guarantee that more advanced pitchers in the upper minors will be able to tear him apart.
R.I.P Jazz #6
He has never struck out over 40% of the time…
An older Ryan Howard had similar K numbers at the same levels, so give him some hope. Another one to note, Cody’s K percentage stayed roughly the same after he moved up levels.
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 26, 2009 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
ryan howard is not a good comparable for ANYONE
howard is a freak… theres nobody like him..
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Just pointing out a fact…
Not saying their swings were similiar, or anything like that. However, Howard made the necessary adjustments and improved his 160ish Ks a season, so why can’t Cody?
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 27, 2009 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions
Why do people insist on K% by at bat instead of plate appearances? Oh yeah, thats what fangraphs does…
Your saying: Everytime Cody came to the plate in 09, and does NOT walk, get hit by the pitch, or sacrifices, he strikes out 40.5% of the time.
I’m saying: Everytime Cody came to the plate in 09 he strikes out 34% of the time.
So…I apologize, he does strike out 40.5% when you factor out his walks, hit by pitcher, or sacrifices.
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 28, 2009 8:38 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not getting to this again
go ahead and use walks+hits- RBIs/HRs for batting average for all I care. You can change whatever stats you want I guess.
R.I.P Jazz #6
Changing stats?
What the hell are you talking about.
Nobody is wrong here. Its just that the way I’m arguing for is more efficient and simpler in telling exactly how many times Cody Johnson will K each time he steps up to the plate.
Your way takes walks, hbp, and sacs out of the picture, which sucks.
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 28, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
so no one is wrong?
Except you told me I was wrong when I said he struck out 40.5% of the time. Is it really that big an issue for you that you need to change a stat to something that almost no one else uses? I get it, you think it’s better, but that doesn’t change the fact that K% is K/AB, not K/PA. That’s just how you come up with it, so it’d probably be smart to at least accept that as legitimate when it’s brought up in discussion.
R.I.P Jazz #6
Sorry that I said you were wrong, I don’t go to Fangraphs, so your stats didn’t look right to me at first (thats before I knew how you were calculating it).
There is no fact that K% is K/AB or K/PA (it can be either), I prefer the K/PA cause its smarter…
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 28, 2009 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions
Let me ask another thing
Do you calculate BA by H/PA? Is SLG TB/PA?
R.I.P Jazz #6
by was385 on Oct 28, 2009 2:03 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
No
Why would you want to factor in walks into BA or SLG?
I prefer K/PA because you can either K, BB, H, SACFLY, HBP, etc…
Saying that he K’s 40.5% of the time does not take into effect that he also walked 15% of the time per at bat.
Saying that he K’s 34% of the time takes into effect that he also walked 12% of the time that he comes to the plate. You can also easily add these together to come to the conclusion that he either Ks or BBs 45% of the times he comes to the plate.
Do you not think its easier to say that: “Cody’s coming to the plate, he strikes out 34% of the time, what a loser.”
than: “Cody’s coming to the plate, if he doesn’t take a walk, hit a sac, or get hit by the pitch then he strikes out 40.5% of the time, what a loser.”
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 28, 2009 3:34 PM EDT up reply actions
No, it’s obviously not easier if everyone disagrees with you because you’re not using the real formula for it. And I’ve never heard anyone say that, they just say his strikeout rate is 40.5% and everyone understands what that means…. except for you I guess.
And a .300 hitter doesn’t get a hit 30% of the time he comes to the plate, so why wouldn’t you divide his hits by the number of PAs so you can actually know what percentage of the time he gets a hit when he comes to bat?
R.I.P Jazz #6
There have been plenty discussions about this very issue on this very site
I don’t think there is a “right” stat per se, but plenty of people prefer K/PA.
The main advantage of doing it that way, in my opinion, is so you can compare K/PA and B/PA to easily see a players K:BB ratio.
No, it’s obviously not easier if everyone disagrees with you because you’re not using the real formula for it.
1. No one else has stated that they disagree with me.
2. Real formula? What the hell are you talking about, there is no real formula for K% because its not an official MLB statistic. You can use whatever formula you want for K%.
I already stated my opinion on the 2nd paragraph, so I’m not even going there.
"Hey Fat Kid...the monster is right behind you! RUNNNN!!" -The Host
by bwellnjonesco on Oct 28, 2009 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Andy Otero, LHP
Is there any scouting information out there on Otero? He’s a young Braves lefty who had a dominant summer in the DSL.
From what I’ve read he gets up into the low-90’s and has an advanced curve ball. Almaraz likes his stuff, and he’s supposed be a very aggressive pitcher. He was the youngest pitcher in the Braves system this year, and he was one of the best in the DSL. He’s under-sized, but he was also barely 17 this year so maybe he still has some room to grow vertically.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Re:
Here’s what I posted in the discussion thread last week:
Andy Otero, 16 – Absolutely blew the DSL away, may even skip the GCL next season and start in Danville at 17. At 5’9" this kid is very agressive with his FB in the 91-92 range topping out at 93, he racks up a ton of Ks by going directly after hitters with excellent control and a very good change and a decent slider.
Impressive DSL campaign for Otero
0.84 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 93-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The question is, will his stuff work in MLB? We’ll see. I hope so, he has a chance to be good.
http://www.capitolavenueclub.com/
At 16
He has tons of room to grow and get better. I think most people are afraid of his height but there have been several short LHP that could bring it and Otero could get taller and add weight to his frame, he’s only 16. Tons of upside with this kid.
by Jay212033 on Oct 26, 2009 9:13 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Actually he’s 17. Born on 6/3/92
Either way you cut it, he’s effin’ young though. And I’m with you, I’d actually be pretty surprised if he isn’t skipped over GCL and sent straight to Danville. But we’ll just see what happens. Definitely an advanced arm,and the best amateur arm from Panama last year. I think his stature was what prevented him from being a bigger name IFA; but the Braves have shown that they aren’t afraid to take chances on under-sized pitchers recently (Medlen, Pruneda, Kimbrel, and signing Weber out of this year’s draft class).
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Cody Johnson
I know you say you don’t believe in Johnson and you are probably right in the long run. He’ll likely be no more than a minor league slugger with a few September call-ups and maybe one legitimate shot – think Mike Hessman. But he’s still going to see more Major League time than a quarter of the guys listed in the top 20. I believe in Johnson more than I believe in a handful of those guys.
..K% is horrible but he’s 20 at AA. There are quite a few people given more slack on this (like Greg Halman last year…I realize it worked out terrible) but the plus plus tool alone is pretty significant.
there is no one really in Johnson's class in this are
Halman as a 20 year old in High-A struck out 29.6% of the time, Johnson this past season as a 20 year old in High-A struck out 40.5% of the time
R.I.P Jazz #6
and?
That’s hoct withw you calculate K% so it makes sense that that is how they’d do it. Walks have absolutely nothing to do with Cody Johnson’s problems. You can look at his ability to take walks separately.
R.I.P Jazz #6
No doubt, thats why I take strikeouts out when I look at BB% and don’t add BB to AB to get PA per BB. So pretty much this should be the new BB% according to you in Johnson’s High A stats:
64/(171-422)=21.6% BB%
Sweet.
so are you out of high school yet?
because the only thing telling people what they believe does is annoy them.
As far as your theory, you can have fun arguing with some other stat geek about the merits of it because I really just don’t care that much. This is what is generally accepted and used, deal with it.
R.I.P Jazz #6
A K counts as an AB...
…so K% is usually calculated as a % of AB. A BB does not count as an AB, so BB% is calculated as a % of PA. You can calculate BB/AB if you want, but it’s a ratio of two unconnected quantities, not a %, and if you try to use it like a %, nobody will know what you’re talking about.
If you think BB should count as AB, fine. Go back in time and take it up with Mr. Cartwright.
Cody Johnson and the List
I like the realism of the List: the Braves have some critical weaknesses in their minor leagues and did little in the last draft to address them. It should also be pointed out that promotions (Schafer and Hanson) and trades (Flowers, Hernandez) have done much to thin out the upper levels of the system.
That said, Cody Johnson has to be on the list. 32 HR aside, the fact of the matter is that he has gotten better with every promotion. Sure, he will find AA pitching tough, but he is young and has shown that he is coachable.
He will always strikeout a lot, but I see him as a Jay Buhner type; not a superstar, but a useful player….
by Stephen in the UAE on Oct 26, 2009 12:50 AM EDT reply actions
Stovall
Stovall’s numbers are very interesting—if he can just get some command, he might have a very high ceiling….
by Stephen in the UAE on Oct 26, 2009 7:15 AM EDT reply actions
Delgado and Hoover
I think both are nice pitchers, but not top 10 guys in this Braves system. Neither of them were even top 20 guys in their leagues this year, as was also the case with Spruill.
Overall I like the list, but a few of your “others” are players that are better prospects than guys in the top 20 list (e.g. Oberholter, Berryhill and Brewer).
At best
That is about where I would put Delgado.
Dont get me wrong, I really like this player, but for him to jump from #11 on their prospect list to top 5 after the year he had, I just dont see it happening. Especially when you consider that he brought the same “effectiveness” to the Sally League, but got hit harder.
Both he and Hoover will have to really shine in the Carolina league, for me, to be considered top 5 or 10 guys in the Braves system.
Kind of hard to crack that top 5 in this organization imo with Heyward, Freeman, Bethancourt, Teheran and Minor.
What was wrong with his season?
He K’d over 10 per 9 and had an FIP of 3.20. It wasn’t an elite season, but it was very solid for a 19 year old in the SAL.
Minor wasn’t exceedingly effective in college and projects to be a mid rotation arm. Bethancourt, who I do like, is still very far away.
yeah I don’t really think you know what you’re talking about. The guy can hit 95 with his fastball as a teenager in the Sally league, vastly improved his walk rate in the second half and was a good pitcher overall in the league for a very bad defensive team. How he doesn’t make the top 10 is a little mind boggling.
I conceded that
He is top 10, but his command issues, as of right now, keep him out of the top 5.
Hitting 95 isnt really indicitive of anything, hitting 95 with not so great command just means the ball leaves the park faster. The more important number is that he sits at about 91-92. He still has some work to do with his secondary pitches and if he can miss some more bats in the Carolina league next year, he could move himself into the top 5 on this list.
Jumping from 11 to 5 would be holding position for Delgado.
As you will see below, six players that were ahead of him on this last year are now gone or graduated.
I think it makes sense to have him top 5, or close.
Delgado definitely is top ten and a case could be made for top five
I assume you’re talking about BA leaving him off their sally league top 20 list, but the general consensus around here was that he was a pretty big oversight on that list.
R.I.P Jazz #6
Interesting, John.
I follow this system closely and find it interesting that your list is so different from mine.
To me, Jones, Kimbrel and Hale seem pretty high. If Jones and Hale really belong in the Braves’ Top 20, maybe the 2009 draft wasn’t so bad.
I really think Oberholtzer makes this list easily. Johnson and even Rohrbough make it for me, too, though Rohrbough comes close to falling off.
Others – Hicks, Francis, Gerardo Rodriguez, and Chris Masters. These are all bottom of the list guys.
I think this might point to a lot of borderline C+ guys and maybe this system is a little stronger than given credit for.
I think you are focusing too much on the specific rankings
All the guys you’ve mentioned (save Kimbrel) are either C+ or C, and as it says at the top, there isn’t a big difference there:
Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Luis Valdez?
At 17 is pretty weak, IMO.
He’s been up with the team, we’ve seen what he’s got, and honestly I’m not overwhelmed by him. He may help fill the tail end of the ’pen in 2010, so I guess his upside is in his higher floor, but give me Benino Pruneda over him.
Pruneda wasn’t even included yet we’re talking about a 20 yr old who dominated the Sally and was solid in the Carolina League, can touch triple digits and has a career 11.6 K/9.
To me he’s a much more intriguing prospect than a lot of the other guys who were mentioned as C grades as well.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
pruneda
I thought about Pruneda but there was some reason I left him off. Can’t remember what it was now. If I add him I’ll have to cut someone else.
5'9" RP with 4.73 ERA in A ball
I don’t think it’s crazy to leave him off, though I personally think he’s probably worth including. It is definitely true that he’s much less likely to make any impact in the majors than a guy like Valdez who is already on the cusp.
He throws hard and pitched well until the end of the season. Got roughed up pretty good those last two months. But he “reportedly” throws up to 100 with the FB. He doesn’t throw 100 but he sits in the mid 90’s with armside run and that’s always a good start for a major league reliever.
"Four of us wolves, running around the desert together in Las Vegas, looking for strippers and cocaine..."
His durability is his biggest question mark, and he obviously wore down this year in Myrtle Beach. His first and second half splits are pretty polarized.
First Half (8.0 IP in Rome): 28.1 IP, 4.4 H/9, 0.32 HR/9, 4.4 BB/9, 12.7 K/9, 1.27 ERA, 0.99 WHIP
2nd Half: 30.2 IP, 12.3 H/9, 0.59 HR/9, 5.6 BB/9, 10.9 K/9, 7.92 ERA, 1.99 WHIP
I can certainly see why you left him off, but even with his second half I think he’ll be fine next year.
Q: If on-base pct is so important then why don't they put it on the scoreboard? -Failcoeur
A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
Changes from last year:
Looking at last year, here are teh changes in the system. I am not counting "C’s" that were added or dropped, because those could have just been editorial decisions by John:
Improved:
Heyward: A- to A
Teheran: C+ to B
R. Delgado: B- to B
Hoover: C+ to B-
Gearrin: C to C+
Ortegano: C to C+
Valdez: C to C+
Regressed:
DeVall: B- to C+
Osuna: C+ to C
Stovall: C+ to C
Francis: C+ to C
Hicks: C+ to C
Additions:
Mike Minor, B-
Christian Bethancourt, B-
David Hale, C+
Mycal Jones, C+
Adam Milligan, C+
Robinson Lopez, C+
Graduated: Hanson (#3 last year), Schafer (#4), Medlen (#9), and James Parr (#16).
Traded: Flowers (#5), Hernandez (#8), and Locke (#10).
Released: Campbell (#15) and Ka’aihue (#18).
That’s clearly a net loss from last year, but not a total disaster as the comments make me think. The system has lost some of its luster and is even less balanced than last year. It probably goes from a top 5 system to just outside the top 10.
Jason Heyward
I have been a believer from the beginning. I think he’ll be a perennial MVP candidate in his prime, with more power than people are projecting currently. But also, I am becoming concerned with these minor injuries that keep keeping him out of the lineup here and there. For instance, he hasn’t played in well over a week in the AFL due to a sore ass. Coincidentally, it makes me think of another superstar Atlanta Braves product, Chipper Jones, who seems to miss the next game after being hit by a pitch, legging out a triple, etc. Also makes me think of Aramis Ramirez. Anyway, does anybody else see this as concerning considering Heyward is only 20? His body looks to develop power, but it isn’t built for comfort and durability questions are already being raised.
by richieabernathy on Oct 28, 2009 10:44 AM EDT reply actions
when he fills out if it's still happening I'll be concerned
until then, he’s still a pretty lanky guy with a ton of strength. Those little strains and pulls are just gonna happen.
R.I.P Jazz #6
Chipper was incredibly durable for years.
People forget that he went like 8 seasons with 100+ rbi and missed a whole year at the beginning of his career with something a lot more serious than anything Heyward has faced.
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