Early Prediction of BA's Top 100
by rhd on Oct 25, 2009 10:06 AM EDT
146 comments
BA just finished their League Top 20's, and are about to begin their Team Top 10's. I thought I'd take an early stab at predicting who'll be in their overall Top 100. Instead of trying to assign a rank to each player, I included a range of where I think the player will likely be ranked:
1 J. Heyward (1 or 2)
2 S. Strasburg (1 or 2)
3 J. Montero (3-10)
4 P. Alvarez (3-10)
5 M. Stanton (3-10)
6 B. Posey (3-10)
7 D. Jennings (3-15)
8 J. Smoak (3-15)
9 D. Ackley (3-20)
10 D. Brown (5-25)
11 N. Feliz (5-25)
12 M. Bumgarner (5-25)
13 C. Santana (5-25)
14 L. Morrison (5-25)
15 B. Matusz (10-30)
16 J. Chacin (10-35)
17 M. Perez (10-40)
18 A. Escobar (15-40)
19 F. Freeman (15-45)
20 K. Drabek (15-45)
21 L. Chisenhall (15-50)
22 B. Wallace (20-45)
23 Y. Alonso (20-45)
24 M. Taylor (20-60)
25 R. Westmoreland (20-60)
26 W. Davis (20-60)
27 T. Beckham (25-50)
28 C. Friedrich (25-60)
29 T. Matzek (25-60)
30 J. Turner (25-60)
31 C. Kelly (25-60)
32 A. Hicks (25-65)
33 D. Gordon (25-65)
34 F. Martinez (30-65)
35 M. Saunders (30-70)
36 C. Carter (30-75)
37 M. Moore (30-75)
38 A. Crow (30-80)
39 M. Gamel (30-80)
40 B. Lawrie (35-75)
41 J. Teheran (35-80)
42 A. Jackson (35-80)
43 A. White (30-90)
44 S. Miller (30-90)
45 Z. Wheeler (30-90)
46 M. Montgomery (40-80)
47 C. Crosby (40-80)
48 Star. Castro (40-80)
49 M. Moustakas (40-90)
50 G. Green (40-90)
51 B. Allen (40-90)
52 J. Castro (40-90)
53 B. Revere (45-80)
54 R. Brignac (50-80)
55 T. Frazier (50-80)
56 D. Norris (45-90)
57 J. Tabata (45-90)
58 D. Tate (40-100)
59 J. Arrieta (50-90)
60 M. Ynoa (50-100)
61 J. Bell (50-100)
62 R. Kalish (50-100)
63 I. Davis (50-100)
64 J. Reddick (50-100)
65 A. Liddi (50-100)
66 C. Withrow (50-100)
67 E. Martin (50-100)
68 J. Iglesias (50-100)
69 T. Reckling (50-100)
70 D. Hudson (50-100)
71 J. Mitchell (50-100)
72 J. Knapp (50-100)
73 J. Lyles (50-100)
74 J. Mejia (50-100)
75 J. Hellickson (50-100)
76 M. Dominguez (50-100)
77 Sim. Castro (50-100)
78 T. Scheppers (50-100)
79 H. Rondon (50-100)
80 J. Vitters (50-100)
81 E. Hosmer (50-100)
82 J. Parker (60-100)
83 D. Espinosa (60-100)
84 B. Lincoln (60-100)
85 T. Flowers (60-100)
86 D. Duffy (60-100)
87 J. Tazawa (60-100)
88 P. Bourjos (60-100)
89 W. Ramos (60-100)
90 T. Neal (60-100)
91 Jay Jackson (60-100)
92 A. Lambo (60-100)
93 T. Melville (60-100)
94 E. Rogers (60-100)
95 H. Lee (75-100)
96 J. Decker (75-100)
97 C. Scarpetta (75-100)
98 D. Bard (80-100)
99 P. Aumont (80-100)
100 W. Flores (80-100)
Honorable Mentions (20)
A. Vizcaino
M. Banuelos
K. Gibson
T. Gillies
N. Weglarz
D. Viciedo
M. Brantley
S. Sizemore
C. Carrasco
C. Heisey
A. Cardenas
A. Poreda
A. Rizzo
C. Triunfel
J. Niese
M. Trout
M. Sano
J. Darnell
L. Anderson
W. Myers
More Possibilities (30)
Z. Britton
Bran. Snyder
C. Lin
M. Bowden
R. Strieby
H. Conger
A. Romine
J. Weeks
G. Desme
N. Barnese
Z. Stewart
B. Borchering
Cody Johnson
A. Cashner
Brett Jackson
J. Mier
T. Robinson
C. Gindl
J. Lucroy
A. Gose
C. D'Arnaud
T. Sanchez
L. Lynn
M. Leake
L. Forsythe
E. Rincon
Ev. Williams
R. Kieschnick
C. Marrero
I. Desmond
I wish I could say that all the players that end up on their list are included in the above. But every year they have a few surprises. But I wouldnt think there'd be more than a handful that I didnt include. Perhaps you disagree.
Comments?
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Eh.
There’ll probably be more than a handful that you didn’t mention, just because it’s so hit or miss ranking guys in the last quarter of the 100.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 25, 2009 10:20 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Nice list
Heyward deserves #1 spot based on productivity but personally prefer Strasburg above him.
This list has a few Cy Young caliber talents. From the right-side, if Feliz can transition in a SP w/o control issues, he may have very comparable upside to Strasburg long-term. I also like Hellickson to be a future dominant starter and think Ethan Martin may climb the prospect ladder in 2010.
Matutsz and Bumgarner are my top choice from left-side to be elite #1 starters with Martin Perez a close third.
Offensively, I also like Alvarez and Stanton better than Heyward long-term, but so far Heyward has statistically outperformed them both. Keep an eye on Michael Taylor … I am buying the Daryl Strawberry comps on him.
Just my opinion.
by bryeic on Oct 25, 2009 11:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanx for the response...
It will be interesting to see how Feliz does as a starter; for his sake, hopefully better than Hughes and Joba so far.
Hellickson seems to project as a #3-#4 starter. Also, may have trouble cracking that Tampa rotation. Martin OTOH could be a top of the rotation guy. Needs to sharpen his control.
You could be right about Alvarez and Stanton. They may have more upside, but Heyward seems a better bet to reach his.
Dont know about Taylor; I expected him to be ranked higher, altho the EL had some dynamite guys at the top. HIs scouting report doesnt tell much.
by rhd on Oct 25, 2009 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hellickson number 3 or 4??
what??
by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 1:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've never seen...
Hellickson projected to be a top-of-rotation starter. Stats have been good; scouting rpts not as good. He did make good progress this year. Maybe I’m wrong.
by rhd on Oct 25, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
jeff dacker
is way too low… what he did in the MWL at the age of 19 is AMAZING…
by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 11:07 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
he's trying to guess BA's list
and BA did put Decker a bit lower than many expected
by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is a projected BA list
BA hates his body and he will not be very high on the top 100.
Comments:
-I think Liddi is too high
-You’re probably right, but I hope that Ynoa doesn’t make a top 100 list again.
-Sano will most likely be on there. I strongly disagree with it, but BA tends to overrate the top IFA guys.
by jar75 on Oct 25, 2009 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another one
Considering the Lambo write-up in their Southern League top 20, I don’t think he makes a top 100 list.
by jar75 on Oct 25, 2009 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I read that...
and that’s why I ranked him as low as I did. He may very well miss the entire list, but he was at #49 last year and had a decent, if unspectacular year, and was a bit young for AA, so I figure he still make the back end.
by rhd on Oct 25, 2009 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
especially with his performance at the AFL so far
he might sneak back out… also if they consider he was just 20!!!! at AA the whole year… its pretty tough..
by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Dont go by...
the order in the list. Go by the the range indicated. I thing Liddi will be in the 50-100 range, altho I dont know where at this point. He got a favorable scouting rpt and a hi ranking in his league to go along w the monster stats, so I think he’ll be on it somewhere.
Hard to tell about Sano, since he hasnt played. Like you say, he may very well make it.
by rhd on Oct 25, 2009 12:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know he got a high ranking in the Cal, but I have a hard time buying Liddi.
And another one, I bet Wil Myers cracks the top 100.
by jar75 on Oct 25, 2009 1:12 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He had good numbers outside of High Desert
but i still wouldnt put him that high. maybe in 80-100 range or honorable mentions because he just had the one good year. If he can build on that next year than i would say he could be a solid player in the bigs
by Marinerfanjake on Oct 25, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty good
i mean, i think it’s probably a fair guess as to BA’s final list. As a Cubs fan, I half wonder if Jim Callis somehow fights for Brett Jackson to get in there. He’s talking about Brett as the number 2 prospect in the Cubs system, ahead of Vitters. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jay Jackson fell out, despite his lofty BA ranking.
I also think Chris Carpenter may be someone they talk about. He won’t make a top 100, but since you did do hm and more possibility lists, I think he would fit in there.
by toonsterwu on Oct 25, 2009 11:30 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Bumgarner and Smoak are higher than I would place them
Feliz and Matusz are too low.
Great list, though.
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by Conjunction on Oct 25, 2009 11:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
The order in the list...
isnt necessarily the rank. I just thought it would be beneficial to order them by how high or low the range I had for them was. I think Feliz will fall in the range I indicated (5-25). Probably closer to #5. I think Matusz will be in the 10-30 range, altho he might crack the top 10.
by rhd on Oct 25, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why so low for Matusz?
I think he’ll be their top non-Strasburg pitcher, in all likelihood.
by James F on Oct 25, 2009 2:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
M.Montero?
i didnt know Miguel Montero was a prospect.
by mjr20 on Oct 25, 2009 11:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Carter?
He is way too low on the list.
I would rank him above Morrison, in the top 15.
by Zabat on Oct 25, 2009 12:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Still concerns...
about K’s for Carter, altho the walk #s are good. Defense is very iffy also. Great stats, but in hitters leagues. He was #76 last year so if he makes the 30’s it’s still a big jump. He might be ranked higher, tho, but I tend to doubt it at this point.
by rhd on Oct 25, 2009 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
still?
I don’t get how people continue to talk about Carter like he’s striking out at a horrible rate. Sure, in ‘07, he was quite bad at over 26%. But he was 20% this year. That’s not bad. There aren’t a lot of power hitters with K rates much under 20%. Guys like David Wright, Raul Ibanez, Werth, Youkilis, JD Drew, and Hawpe all had K rates over 20%
by Galt on Oct 25, 2009 11:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not a fair comparison at all
Wright in AA (21): 15% K rate
Ibanez in AA/AAA (24): 11.6% K rate
Werth in AA (19/20/21/22): 18.5% K rate
Youkilis in AA (23/24): 9.4% K rate
Drew in AA (22): 18.5% K rate
Hawpe in AA (24): 22.2% K rate
You can’t compare AA stats to MLB stats.
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by Frederick0220 on Oct 26, 2009 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Actually, if anything, that certainly doesn't help the argument at all.
AA numbers are mediocre or bad? Guess what? They’re not going to get better in the majors. If you have a hole in your swing, the pros are going to exploit the crap out of it.
This isn’t to say that Carter hasn’t improved (he has), but he’s not out of the woods yet.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 26, 2009 3:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
My point was that all of these guys regressed contact wise upon reaching the majors
Carter may have a 20% K rate, which wouldn’t be all that bad in the majors, but you can safely expect that to rise once he gets settled in the MLB.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 26, 2009 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, sorry if I wasn't clear.
I was agreeing with you and pointing out that Galt’s comparisons of players with strikeout rates in AA vs. the Majors wasn’t helping Galt’s argument at all.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 26, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Okay dawg.
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by Frederick0220 on Oct 26, 2009 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not fair either
Youk was not a power hitter in the minors, he was contact hitter who walked a lot.
Several of these other guys were not big power hitters in the minors either.
Look at guys like Fielder, Howard, Dunn, etc. MLB power hitters who were Minor league power hitters.
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by Wilbur Wood on Oct 26, 2009 7:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That wasn't Fred's argument.
Galt brought up those names.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 27, 2009 2:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very true
However, to bring up some names that fit into Galt’s argument:
Jim Thome: 22.9% (K/AB) in AAA as a 22-year old (1993). Career 21.6% minor league K/AB.
Carlos Delgado: 23.4% in AAA as a 23-year old (1995). Career 22.2% minor league K/AB.
Adam Dunn: 23.4% in AA-AAA as a 21-year old (2001). Career 22.4% minor league K/AB.
Troy Glaus: 23.6% in AA-AAA as a 21-year old (1998). That was his only season in the minors.
Pat Burrell: 24.7% in AA-AAA as a 22-year old (1999). Career 24.2% minor league K/AB.
Travis Hafner: 25.4% in AA as a 24-year old (2001). Career 25.5% minor league K/AB.
David Ortiz: 26.3% in A-AA as a 21-year old (1997). Career 24.3% minor league K/AB.
Mark Reynolds: 27.1% in A-AA spanning 2 seasons (22/23). Career 26.5% minor league K/AB.
Bobby Abreu: 28.9% in AAA as a 21-year old (1995). Career 21.3% minor league K/AB.
Carlos Pena: 29.4% in AAA as a 23-year old (2001). Career 24.9% minor league K/AB.
Jim Edmonds: 31.1% in AA-AAA as a 22-year old (1992). Career 27.9% minor league K/AB.
Derrek Lee: 34.0% in AA as a 20-year old (1996). Career 26.3% minor league K/AB.
Ryan Howard: 34.2% in AA-AAA as a 24-year old (2004). Career 31.6% minor league K/AB.
Chris Carter: 24.4% in AA-AAA as a 22-year old (2009). Career 27.0% minor league K/AB.
A couple notes:
A) Going by their single season K/AB, Chris Carter would fit right below Troy Glaus, ahead of David Ortiz, Bobby Abreu, Derrek Lee, Ryan Howard and others.
B) Going by their minor league career K/AB, Chris Carter would have only Howard and Edmonds below him with Derrek Lee and Mark Reynolds just above him. Those four are the only who seem to have a comparable career K-rate.
C) Derrek Lee was younger than Carter when he had his AA season by two years (seemingly fairly significant).
D) Mark Reynolds did not have any time above AA and only 248 ABs there at that. I included him because of the similar ages even if he was at a lower level.
D.1) The reason for Mark Reynolds’ two seasons is because he had a shortened season in 2006. I wanted to get a fuller sample size in order to have more trustworthy numbers.
In summation, there are successful major league batters who had high minor league K-rates. Some of them had a few great years and then flamed out (Hafner), one has been linked to steroids (Ortiz), and some of them have been fairly inconsistent at the plate (Pena, Burrell).
This is not a comp to say that Carter will definitely be a top major league hitter, but it is to say that there have been quite a few players who have had comparable K/AB ratios in the minors and gone on to hit well against major league pitching.
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by nobodyinparticular on Oct 27, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Now using K/PA rather than K/BB
Here are the numbers:
Jim Thome: 18.9% in AAA. Career 18.0%.
Adam Dunn: 19.4% in AA-AAA. Career 18.2%.
Carlos Delgado: 20.2% in AAA. Career 18.8%.
Troy Glaus: 20.3% in AA-AAA. -
Pat Burrell: 20.7% in AA-AAA. Career 20.1.
Travis Hafner: 21.1% in AA. Career 21.2%.
Mark Reynolds: 23.3% in A-AA. Career 23.1%.
David Ortiz: 23.9% in A-AA. Career 21.4% .
Bobby Abreu: 24.4% in AAA. Career 18.5%.
Carlos Pena: 24.5% in AAA. Career 20.7%.
Jim Edmonds: 27.5% in AAA. Career 24.5%.
Derrek Lee: 29.6% in AA. Career 23.3%.
Ryan Howard: 29.6% in AA-AAA. Career 27.1%.
Chris Carter: 20.4% in AA-AAA. Career 23.0%.
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by nobodyinparticular on Oct 27, 2009 2:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You might be aware...
but that’s a huge selection bias if you want to approach the issue that way.
by Mike I on Oct 27, 2009 11:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not sure the point of this post...
Because the point of my post was simply to bring up names and numbers of those who were able to be successful with high k-rates in the minors.
Are there a TON of failures with peripherals like Carter’s? Absolutely. You don’t even have to include his absolutely horrendous K-rates of 2008 to see that he has a bevy of failed prospects stacked against him.
The issue being addressed is the implied question: “Has someone with Carter’s K-rates been successful in the major leagues?” Galt brought in quite a few names that were proven not to fit the bill. I found some that did.
If one were to think that these names answered the question: “Will Chris Carter be a great major leaguer?” then that person would need an adjustment.
In short, as my final sentence of my first post stated, the only reason for the post is to show that there is a track record of players with similar or worst K-rates who have succeeded. As explicitly stated in that very sentence, “This is not a comp to say that Carter will definitely by a top major league hitter…”
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by nobodyinparticular on Oct 28, 2009 12:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Some people can't be bothered to read to the end.
Maybe though, just maybe, those people shouldn’t post a reply afterward.
by PissedMick on Oct 29, 2009 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Matusz will probably be top 5
10th at worst. He’ll be the 2nd pitcher, behind Strasburg.
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
by wickedwitch on Oct 25, 2009 1:03 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Jason Castro
He was a top 25 guy for them halfway through the season. IN THEIR MIND, do you really think that many people moved ahead of him? BA has been consistently high on them.
by byronlhsdrmr on Oct 25, 2009 1:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent list
I’m not sure why BA would like Jesus Montero better than Carlos Santana. Yes he’s 3 years younger than Santana and they had a similar wOBA at AA (.418 for Santana and .409 for Montero), but Montero looks to be a DH while Santana looks to be a solid if not better defensive catcher. The only knock on Santana that I’ve read is that he doesn’t speak English very well yet and that hurts his game calling. However, Santana has a cannon of an arm and is a good blocker to go along with his superb offensive skills. Overall even though Montero has a higher offensive ceiling, I believe Santana should get the nod because of his value at catcher.
I also think that Hector Rondon and Daniel Hudson should ranked a little higher, but that’s just nitpicking.
by Alex Trebek on Oct 25, 2009 1:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanx...
for the response. I think my ranges for Montero and Santana are accurate, which doesnt necessarily mean Montero will be ranked higher. But if Callis’ recent comment is any indication, I think he will be. His comment was something like he’d probably choose Chisenhall as Cleveland’s #1 prospect over Santana. I dont think he’d rank Chisenhall above Montero. Of course, I might be wrong about that, too.
by rhd on Oct 26, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chiz over Montero is pretty ridiculous (and I love Chisenhall btw)
Montero has the chance to be a .300/.400/.500 guy (in his prime) with great defense at probably the most valuable position on the diamond.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 27, 2009 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed, I don’t think Chisenhall should be over Montero. Chisenhall had a nice 2009, but he has to prove himself above A ball (which Montero already has done, though admittedly in a small sample size). Hard to get a read on what kind of defensive 3B Chisenhall will be. He made a lot of errors at the beginning of the season right after the transition, but he looked good the couple times I saw him at Akron. I’m kind of surprised Callis thinks Chisenhall should be above Santana…. Santana’s closer to the bigs and plays a more valuable position.
by Alex Trebek on Oct 27, 2009 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And on top of this,
I see Santana hitting for a higher average, better plate discipline, and the same kind of power, if not slightly superior. Santana’s clearly the guy to go with, here.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 27, 2009 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chisenhall
He reminds me a little of Adrian Beltre (defense aside). Ok average, Ok OBP, Good pop.
by Alex Trebek on Oct 27, 2009 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
wait
montero has a chance to be a great defensive catcher?? I have NEVER once heard that
by miraclemets on Oct 27, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's because its a load of BS.
He has zero chance of being even an average defensive catcher and is the longest of shots at even sticking at catcher.
by alskor on Oct 27, 2009 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, damn.
I got Montero mixed up with Santana for some reason.
I do actually have Montero over Chiz, but in my previous post I was talking about Santana.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 27, 2009 10:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Makes a lot more sense
I would take both guys before Chisenhall as well, but I too, really love Chisenhall.
by alskor on Oct 27, 2009 10:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Logical deduction
Logical deduction told me that you had to be talking about Santana in your post, but I had the exact same question going through my head that miraclemets asked.
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by nobodyinparticular on Oct 28, 2009 12:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
lol
i thought i missed the memo that everyone all the sudden is on board with montero sticking at C…but strictly bat, i too agree that montero will be a stud and would also take both montero and santana over chizz
by miraclemets on Oct 28, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Very good list
However, Hudson, Knapp, Lyles, Mejia, Hellickson, Decker look shockingly low.
Mejia should be top 20, and all of those other guys are easy top 50 fellows, if not top 30.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 25, 2009 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I agree with this pretty much totally.
Especially Hellickson.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 26, 2009 12:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
FWIW, I have Hellboy at #14
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 26, 2009 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, I'd have him and Mejia at least in the top 25, maybe 20.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 26, 2009 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have Mejia at #20 on the dawwwwwwt.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 26, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd be shocked if Hellickson is that low
BA has always rated him lower than every other ranking organization, but word is that they came away impressed when they finally got to see him first hand on a regular basis in Durham.
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by Brickhaus on Oct 26, 2009 9:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Heck, I'd be shocked if he's even in that range
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by Brickhaus on Oct 26, 2009 9:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanx...
Yeah, I’m starting to think now that Helly will be ranked higher. But I doubt if he’s above #20. Remember, BA didnt rank him at all last year. Did he make that much progress in 1 year? His stats have always been good. I’d say 20-70 or so if I had it to do again.
Mejia maybe will be a little higher, but not that much, I think. He’s not that projectible (6’0’’) and his secondary pitches need work. HIs scouting report says he could wind up in the pen.
by rhd on Oct 26, 2009 9:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hellickson
gained what many people consider to be a plus changeup and a solid sinker. On top of this, he tore up both AA and AAA, which allowed him to prove the skeptics wrong who contended that upper level hitters would tag his stuff.
Mejia struck out over a batter per inning in AA at 19 years-old and can touch 98/99 mph. BA will have him in the top 25.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 27, 2009 1:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Also, he's gotten better at commanding the lower half of the zone
His HR rate was less than half what it had been.
Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."
by Brickhaus on Oct 27, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
"He's not that projectible"
Please explain that.
If you mean that because of his frame he cannot handle his mid-90’s velocity, I’d be happy to pull up a few quotes from people who have seen him, review players professionally, and say otherwise.
by JayWise on Oct 28, 2009 7:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I meant that...
he’s only 6’0’’, and the vast majority of starting pitchers that height cannot throw hi-velocity consistently w/o a max effort delivery. So, his remaining a starter long-term while continuing to throw hi-velocity pitches w/o breaking down is questionable. Indeed, Callis in today’s chat expects him to become a reliever, which reinforces my thought that BA wont rank him too much higher than about #50. Pedro is a rare exception.
by rhd on Oct 28, 2009 7:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpen today, Starter yesterday
People have been bouncing back and forth about the reliever v. starter thing. About 2 weeks ago, someone else at baseball america said that he looked like he could be a top end starter, given a little bit of time in the upper minors to refine his stuff. It all really depends on that, and since almost every pitcher in minor leagues could probably work to refine their secondary stuff, pretty much every pitcher out there might end up in the bullpen.
As for his frame (and max effort delivery), baseball america said that he had a solid pitcher’s frame, which sounds like pretty much the opposite of what you’re guessing.
by JayWise on Oct 29, 2009 7:32 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just to be more thorough, here is a recent comment from KLaw at ESPN Insider
“The most impressive arm so far has been Jenrry Mejia of the New York Mets, who was on a short pitch count but showed two above-average pitches and a chance for a third. Mejia’s fastball sat from 93-96 mph and touched 98, he also threw a plus changeup that looked more like a two-seamer at 85-87. It should be noted, though: the latter pitch was a little inconsistent. His curveball was even less consistent, but he threw one very sharp one for a called third strike at 78 mph, with good depth and clear two-plane break. He comes from a slot just below 3/4 and needs to focus on staying on top of the ball. He missed a chunk of the second half with a strained finger, which could impact how he grips the ball even now. He has a strong, thick build. The velocity comes easily, and if his command is better than what he showed on Wednesday and he can snap off that good curveball more frequently, he’s a potential No. 1 or No. 2 starter.” (Emphasis Added)
by JayWise on Oct 29, 2009 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And one more thing, just to bury you with information
Mejia is ranked in the 70’s on this list. You said that you think he’ll be ranked a little bit higher. But in this baseball america midseason top 50, he was ranked in the 25-50 range. Even assuming that he was the 50th prospect on that list (highly unlikely), you’re implying that he’s going to drop at least 10 more spots, if not 20.
by JayWise on Oct 29, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
which would be ridiculous
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 29, 2009 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah, like I've said
Mejia’s a lock to be top 25 on BA’s list.
I keep saying it, but that’s because I love me guys like Mejia who pump it high-90s with promising secondary stuff.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 29, 2009 6:08 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pedro Martinez was 5 feet 11.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 28, 2009 2:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
hah i have a feeling he still might be...
by soxkid on Oct 28, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, yeah, haha.
I was just saying that his height didn’t stop him from being a dominant force
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 28, 2009 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He just had his legs lengthened.
Now they go all the way up.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 28, 2009 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilmer Font should be a HM.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 25, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
and Robbie Ross
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 25, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Aroldis Chapman
Since he’ll probably will be signed before the list comes out and it really doesn’t matter by who if he’s got 100-mph heat from the left side my guess is he’s included in the top 100.
I’ll venture the guess of him squeezing into the top 25, somewhere between 20-25 and easily before 35.
by phiago on Oct 25, 2009 1:59 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Just a not on that
@jorgearangure RT @NYPOST_Mets The Mets won’t be pursuing Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman after being told he wants up to $60 million to sign.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 25, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
note*
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 25, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why would you not be greedy? Get yours, especially when you're a pitcher and haven't made money before.
Tools Whore
by Tyler on Oct 25, 2009 3:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
didn't strasburg only ask for about $50 mil?
by daveh33 on Oct 25, 2009 3:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
stras was not a free agent
this guy is a free agent
by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 4:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i used to not care, and often think most athletes were udnerpaid
dunno, maybe its due to our economic times, but $60 mil just seems too ridiculous to me
by daveh33 on Oct 25, 2009 4:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
don't really disagree
but because he is a free agent…if he can get 4 or 5 teams (like all large markets, another reason baseball is f’d up, that’s for another day) bidding for him…he’ll get that much.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Oct 25, 2009 5:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Chapman
From what I’ve heard, if Chapman were eligible, he’d be in their top 10. I would expect that he will get signed, if he can get into the country, which I’d expect he will. Maybe he wont get $60 mil, but if his workouts for teams look good, he’ll get a lot from somebody.
by rhd on Oct 26, 2009 9:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BA can't be that stupid.
Chapman may have huge heat, but his secondary stuff still needs work.
As for the money, who knows. International free agents may have more freedom to choose, but teams aren’t going to throw out money brazenly to someone they aren’t sure on.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 27, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jake Arietta?
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by ravensfan3 on Oct 25, 2009 4:58 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
so Gamel and Escobar are indeed eligible I guess
even though both have over 130 PAs…. hmm, got me thinking that the AB cutoff is kinda stupid. either way I forgot to include them in my list because i was looking at PA when i made the cutoff, lolz
by daveh33 on Oct 25, 2009 6:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I believe Gamel isn’t eligible as a “prospect”, Escobar is, it’s 130 AB or more they use, so Gamel is right at 130 and Alcides had 129.
by bigboy1234 on Oct 25, 2009 7:00 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The rule is...
not more than 130 MLB ABs. So Gamel and Escobar are both eligible for BA’s list, and most probably you will see them both on there.
by rhd on Oct 26, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ynoa at 60?
ugh
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 25, 2009 8:14 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I can't decide if you think this is too high or too low.
I want to say too high, because it clearly is, but I’m sure a lot of homers think the opposite.
by PissedMick on Oct 25, 2009 9:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yes
and that whys they call them HOMERS
by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 9:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
pot calling the kettle black much?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 26, 2009 6:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
by flipgatey3 on Oct 27, 2009 1:21 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
way too high
For a kid who lost a full season of time and has zero professional innings to look at I can’t see him being ranked this high.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
by bigsteve on Oct 25, 2009 11:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i dont think
he even gets in the top 100
by miraclemets on Oct 26, 2009 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think based on upside alone,
he’s certainly a top 200 prospect, but i wouldn’t put him in my top 150 or so
by soxkid on Oct 26, 2009 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe
I could certainly see placing him in the 150-200 range if you really believe in the scouting reports, but he wouldn’t make mine. There are a lot of other high upside arms who have played competitive baseball and haven’t lost a season to injury.
by jar75 on Oct 26, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The range is...
50-100. Maybe closer to 100, I dont know. He was #54 last year and hadnt pitched then either. He hasnt lost any talent, so unless his injury is expected to be a long-term concern, which I havent heard it is, I think he’ll be on the list somewhere.
by rhd on Oct 26, 2009 10:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He may not have lost talent (though it's possible with any injury)
But he’s lost a year of development. Of course he’s still very, very young, but he can’t be ranked as high as last year because he’s a little bit less of a unique commodity now.
by thejd44 on Oct 31, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bard no longer a rookie
Although only 49 1/3 innings he was up far more than 45 days during the period of 25 man rosters. Thus he won’t be on the list. Also, Carter was ranked third in Texas League by BA behind Latos, who passed 50 innings and Smoak who will be way up the list, leaving a lot of room for Carter to rank as high as the mid-20s.
by Dalman on Oct 25, 2009 9:34 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
re: Bard
Yes, he will. BA doesn’t look at service days like the rookie requirements.
by bigboy1234 on Oct 25, 2009 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
question
Why is Turner ranked above Crosby at this point? Is his stuff that much better?
Also, why no Avila?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 26, 2009 12:42 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
It's a BA list
I’d be absolutely shocked if they didn’t rank Turner ahead of Crosby. BA doesn’t seem to like Casey Crosby all that much for whatever reason; Callis ranked him 6th in the Midwest League (behind Aaron Hicks, Dee Gordon, Josh Vitters, Brett Lawrie and Mike Montgomery). I don’t agree with it, but I think the ranking is on point.
KG seems to like Casey Crosby a lot more, and I’m interested to see if Crosby or Turner gets the number 1 spot when his top 11’s come out.
by jar75 on Oct 26, 2009 9:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Clarification
“I don’t agree with it, but I think the ranking is on point.”
Just wanted to clarify that I meant that I don’t agree with BA’s lack of enthusiasm for Crosby, so I think rhd’s ranking is on point.
by jar75 on Oct 26, 2009 9:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fair enough
Thanks!
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 26, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wouldn't be surprised to see Crosby tear up high-A ball and AA,
and become a top 15 prospect at year’s end.
Dude has some naughty by ‘naturish’ stuff.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 26, 2009 3:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmmmmmmmm....
……I guess I’m riding the Casey Crosby train by myself.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 26, 2009 6:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nah
your not. i love him too. don’t see him completely ripping through two levels next year, but he’s really good.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Oct 26, 2009 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm on it too
But I’m not ready to project him as a future top 15 prospect.
by jar75 on Oct 26, 2009 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
scott elbent
how is he not on this list?
by matthewmafa on Oct 26, 2009 9:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I like Elbert
But I don’t think the Dodgers have much interest in trying him as a starter. It’s a shame, but his prospect status takes a pretty big hit as a reliever.
by jar75 on Oct 26, 2009 9:45 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nice list
i like the ranking range too.
i’d knock down westmoreland, kelly, moustakas, ynoa, beckham down some notches. keeping westmoreland in the top 50, the others out. kelly is a top 50 prospect, but i’d discount him a bit until he is firm on his decision to be a pitcher. ynoa doesn’t deserve a top 100 nod. hm yeah. moustakas should be in the 50-100 range. beckham fringe top 50 at best. i recall reading in a few places that he might have to move out of ss.
randell delgardo should get a hm.
by bk11 on Oct 26, 2009 10:32 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
agree about Delgado...
he’s a very underrated arm
by soxkid on Oct 27, 2009 12:29 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ryan Strieby
What am i missing here? why isn’t this guy a solid lock for top 100 prospect? he just turned 24 and spent the full season in Double A this season. He was drafted in the 4th round in 2006. Here are some cherry picked stats from his last two seasons:
2008 – A – Lakeland – FSL – 421 AB, .278/.352/.563, 46:101 BB: K, 29 HR
2009 – AA – Erie – EL – 294 AB, .303/.427/.565, 57:80 BB:K, 19 HR
He is a 6’6" monster and has dominated at each level while showing the ability to make adjustments. The Tigers have been keeping him at each level for a full season, but with Miggy at 1B I could see them converting Strieby to an OF or trading him.
I didn’t mention he did have wrist injuries which only allowed him to play in 86 games this year and he hasn’t been immune to other nagging injuries in the past. Still – it didn’t seem to sap his power as he had 38 extra base hits in 294 ABs while OPSing .992 in a strong pitcher’s league.
Thoughts?
by saltybiscuits on Oct 28, 2009 9:32 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
There isn't a lot
to not like about Strieby, and he could be one who is slipping through the cracks due to age? He certainly has put up some well above average numbers in both power (.283 IsoP in 2008 / .263 IsoP in 2009) and his ability to take a walk (9.6% in 2008 / 15.6% in 2009). The Tigers have been very cautious with him (1 level per year), although that isn’t a rarity with their hitting prospects.
by soxkid on Oct 28, 2009 12:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
forgot to mention
that in such a weak system and large-market franchise, usually a guy like Strieby would be overrated.
by soxkid on Oct 28, 2009 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
On the radar
but not a top 100 guy for me.
by alskor on Oct 28, 2009 2:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
interesting.
Wondering what is keeping him out in your opinion?
I feel like looking at the 1B prospect universe, he is severely underhyped and gets less credit for outperforming his peers.
Not trying to defend my suggestion he should be in there, just curious to hear your viewpoints.
by saltybiscuits on Oct 28, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ARL, tools and the fact he’s a 1B and Im not sure exactly how much he’s gonna hit at the MLB level. Good prospect… but not top 100 for me.
by alskor on Oct 28, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Probably the only reason he isn't high on radars is because, well...
he’s 24. Not that diminishes his ability to break out, but still, it’s less impressive a line in context of his age.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 28, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I too...
am impressed by Strieby’s stats and would expect that he would be getting more hype. But BA left him completely off their League Top 20’s (EL), so he doesnt get a mention here. I imagine he’ll be #6 or #7 on Detroit’s Top 10, maybe higher. Someone I have my eye on.
by rhd on Oct 28, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i agree
strieby has been a masher…and lets not forget about another guy who was a bit old for the minor leagues (ryan howard)…look how that turned out
by miraclemets on Oct 28, 2009 8:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
let's not forget all the other huge mashing 1Bs with not-so-great ARLs
Jason Botts, etc
by daveh33 on Oct 28, 2009 11:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That Ryan Shealy sure can hit though.
by PissedMick on Oct 29, 2009 5:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
injuries
there was quite a few folks who thought he could be decent. injuries have killed any chances he had.
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Oct 30, 2009 5:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
that and not performing....
i’ve yet to understand why people were ever even high on him…
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 3, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
i loved Botts
baseball love, not man love.
by richieabernathy on Oct 30, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i stood right next to him many years ago when he played in Savannah
one of the most impressive physical specimens i’ve seen
by daveh33 on Oct 30, 2009 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Injury risk plays a big part
His age plays a little part. We’ll all be getting much more familiar with Streiby (probably as a LF or DH) very soon.
Anyone else see a little Billy Butler in him- pure hitter, bad defensively?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Oct 28, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not with that strikeout rate.
Pure hitter? No. He could have a Kevin Millar ceiling though, which is a lot better than it sounds.
by PissedMick on Oct 29, 2009 5:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know you have a range, but...
You have Hellickson and Rondon ranked way too low IMO
by at022482 on Nov 2, 2009 12:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Hellickson isn't top 50 much less as low as 75 BA must just not like him or something
everyone else seems to have him top 30 and some top 20. I’m not really sure what else he can do to prove he deserves to be in the top pitching prospect discussion. The kid has stuff + results. Forgive him, lincecum, Oswalt, Pedro for not being 6’4
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
by Dbullsfan on Nov 2, 2009 1:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
and Mejia.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Nov 3, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
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