Early Prediction of BA's Top 100
by rhd on Oct 25, 2009 10:06 AM EDT
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PrintBA just finished their League Top 20's, and are about to begin their Team Top 10's. I thought I'd take an early stab at predicting who'll be in their overall Top 100. Instead of trying to assign a rank to each player, I included a range of where I think the player will likely be ranked:
1 J. Heyward (1 or 2)
2 S. Strasburg (1 or 2)
3 J. Montero (3-10)
4 P. Alvarez (3-10)
5 M. Stanton (3-10)
6 B. Posey (3-10)
7 D. Jennings (3-15)
8 J. Smoak (3-15)
9 D. Ackley (3-20)
10 D. Brown (5-25)
11 N. Feliz (5-25)
12 M. Bumgarner (5-25)
13 C. Santana (5-25)
14 L. Morrison (5-25)
15 B. Matusz (10-30)
16 J. Chacin (10-35)
17 M. Perez (10-40)
18 A. Escobar (15-40)
19 F. Freeman (15-45)
20 K. Drabek (15-45)
21 L. Chisenhall (15-50)
22 B. Wallace (20-45)
23 Y. Alonso (20-45)
24 M. Taylor (20-60)
25 R. Westmoreland (20-60)
26 W. Davis (20-60)
27 T. Beckham (25-50)
28 C. Friedrich (25-60)
29 T. Matzek (25-60)
30 J. Turner (25-60)
31 C. Kelly (25-60)
32 A. Hicks (25-65)
33 D. Gordon (25-65)
34 F. Martinez (30-65)
35 M. Saunders (30-70)
36 C. Carter (30-75)
37 M. Moore (30-75)
38 A. Crow (30-80)
39 M. Gamel (30-80)
40 B. Lawrie (35-75)
41 J. Teheran (35-80)
42 A. Jackson (35-80)
43 A. White (30-90)
44 S. Miller (30-90)
45 Z. Wheeler (30-90)
46 M. Montgomery (40-80)
47 C. Crosby (40-80)
48 Star. Castro (40-80)
49 M. Moustakas (40-90)
50 G. Green (40-90)
51 B. Allen (40-90)
52 J. Castro (40-90)
53 B. Revere (45-80)
54 R. Brignac (50-80)
55 T. Frazier (50-80)
56 D. Norris (45-90)
57 J. Tabata (45-90)
58 D. Tate (40-100)
59 J. Arrieta (50-90)
60 M. Ynoa (50-100)
61 J. Bell (50-100)
62 R. Kalish (50-100)
63 I. Davis (50-100)
64 J. Reddick (50-100)
65 A. Liddi (50-100)
66 C. Withrow (50-100)
67 E. Martin (50-100)
68 J. Iglesias (50-100)
69 T. Reckling (50-100)
70 D. Hudson (50-100)
71 J. Mitchell (50-100)
72 J. Knapp (50-100)
73 J. Lyles (50-100)
74 J. Mejia (50-100)
75 J. Hellickson (50-100)
76 M. Dominguez (50-100)
77 Sim. Castro (50-100)
78 T. Scheppers (50-100)
79 H. Rondon (50-100)
80 J. Vitters (50-100)
81 E. Hosmer (50-100)
82 J. Parker (60-100)
83 D. Espinosa (60-100)
84 B. Lincoln (60-100)
85 T. Flowers (60-100)
86 D. Duffy (60-100)
87 J. Tazawa (60-100)
88 P. Bourjos (60-100)
89 W. Ramos (60-100)
90 T. Neal (60-100)
91 Jay Jackson (60-100)
92 A. Lambo (60-100)
93 T. Melville (60-100)
94 E. Rogers (60-100)
95 H. Lee (75-100)
96 J. Decker (75-100)
97 C. Scarpetta (75-100)
98 D. Bard (80-100)
99 P. Aumont (80-100)
100 W. Flores (80-100)
Honorable Mentions (20)
A. Vizcaino
M. Banuelos
K. Gibson
T. Gillies
N. Weglarz
D. Viciedo
M. Brantley
S. Sizemore
C. Carrasco
C. Heisey
A. Cardenas
A. Poreda
A. Rizzo
C. Triunfel
J. Niese
M. Trout
M. Sano
J. Darnell
L. Anderson
W. Myers
More Possibilities (30)
Z. Britton
Bran. Snyder
C. Lin
M. Bowden
R. Strieby
H. Conger
A. Romine
J. Weeks
G. Desme
N. Barnese
Z. Stewart
B. Borchering
Cody Johnson
A. Cashner
Brett Jackson
J. Mier
T. Robinson
C. Gindl
J. Lucroy
A. Gose
C. D'Arnaud
T. Sanchez
L. Lynn
M. Leake
L. Forsythe
E. Rincon
Ev. Williams
R. Kieschnick
C. Marrero
I. Desmond
I wish I could say that all the players that end up on their list are included in the above. But every year they have a few surprises. But I wouldnt think there'd be more than a handful that I didnt include. Perhaps you disagree.
Comments?
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Comments
Eh.
There’ll probably be more than a handful that you didn’t mention, just because it’s so hit or miss ranking guys in the last quarter of the 100.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Nice list
Heyward deserves #1 spot based on productivity but personally prefer Strasburg above him.
This list has a few Cy Young caliber talents. From the right-side, if Feliz can transition in a SP w/o control issues, he may have very comparable upside to Strasburg long-term. I also like Hellickson to be a future dominant starter and think Ethan Martin may climb the prospect ladder in 2010.
Matutsz and Bumgarner are my top choice from left-side to be elite #1 starters with Martin Perez a close third.
Offensively, I also like Alvarez and Stanton better than Heyward long-term, but so far Heyward has statistically outperformed them both. Keep an eye on Michael Taylor … I am buying the Daryl Strawberry comps on him.
Just my opinion.
Thanx for the response...
It will be interesting to see how Feliz does as a starter; for his sake, hopefully better than Hughes and Joba so far.
Hellickson seems to project as a #3-#4 starter. Also, may have trouble cracking that Tampa rotation. Martin OTOH could be a top of the rotation guy. Needs to sharpen his control.
You could be right about Alvarez and Stanton. They may have more upside, but Heyward seems a better bet to reach his.
Dont know about Taylor; I expected him to be ranked higher, altho the EL had some dynamite guys at the top. HIs scouting report doesnt tell much.
I've never seen...
Hellickson projected to be a top-of-rotation starter. Stats have been good; scouting rpts not as good. He did make good progress this year. Maybe I’m wrong.
jeff dacker
is way too low… what he did in the MWL at the age of 19 is AMAZING…
he's trying to guess BA's list
and BA did put Decker a bit lower than many expected
This is a projected BA list
BA hates his body and he will not be very high on the top 100.
Comments:
-I think Liddi is too high
-You’re probably right, but I hope that Ynoa doesn’t make a top 100 list again.
-Sano will most likely be on there. I strongly disagree with it, but BA tends to overrate the top IFA guys.
Another one
Considering the Lambo write-up in their Southern League top 20, I don’t think he makes a top 100 list.
I read that...
and that’s why I ranked him as low as I did. He may very well miss the entire list, but he was at #49 last year and had a decent, if unspectacular year, and was a bit young for AA, so I figure he still make the back end.
especially with his performance at the AFL so far
he might sneak back out… also if they consider he was just 20!!!! at AA the whole year… its pretty tough..
by matthewmafa on Oct 25, 2009 12:45 PM EDT up reply actions
Dont go by...
the order in the list. Go by the the range indicated. I thing Liddi will be in the 50-100 range, altho I dont know where at this point. He got a favorable scouting rpt and a hi ranking in his league to go along w the monster stats, so I think he’ll be on it somewhere.
Hard to tell about Sano, since he hasnt played. Like you say, he may very well make it.
I know he got a high ranking in the Cal, but I have a hard time buying Liddi.
And another one, I bet Wil Myers cracks the top 100.
He had good numbers outside of High Desert
but i still wouldnt put him that high. maybe in 80-100 range or honorable mentions because he just had the one good year. If he can build on that next year than i would say he could be a solid player in the bigs
by Marinerfanjake on Oct 25, 2009 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions
pretty good
i mean, i think it’s probably a fair guess as to BA’s final list. As a Cubs fan, I half wonder if Jim Callis somehow fights for Brett Jackson to get in there. He’s talking about Brett as the number 2 prospect in the Cubs system, ahead of Vitters. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jay Jackson fell out, despite his lofty BA ranking.
I also think Chris Carpenter may be someone they talk about. He won’t make a top 100, but since you did do hm and more possibility lists, I think he would fit in there.
Bumgarner and Smoak are higher than I would place them
Feliz and Matusz are too low.
Great list, though.
I like steak.
The order in the list...
isnt necessarily the rank. I just thought it would be beneficial to order them by how high or low the range I had for them was. I think Feliz will fall in the range I indicated (5-25). Probably closer to #5. I think Matusz will be in the 10-30 range, altho he might crack the top 10.
Still concerns...
about K’s for Carter, altho the walk #s are good. Defense is very iffy also. Great stats, but in hitters leagues. He was #76 last year so if he makes the 30’s it’s still a big jump. He might be ranked higher, tho, but I tend to doubt it at this point.
still?
I don’t get how people continue to talk about Carter like he’s striking out at a horrible rate. Sure, in ‘07, he was quite bad at over 26%. But he was 20% this year. That’s not bad. There aren’t a lot of power hitters with K rates much under 20%. Guys like David Wright, Raul Ibanez, Werth, Youkilis, JD Drew, and Hawpe all had K rates over 20%
Matusz will probably be top 5
10th at worst. He’ll be the 2nd pitcher, behind Strasburg.
Even atheists believe in Matt Wieters
Jason Castro
He was a top 25 guy for them halfway through the season. IN THEIR MIND, do you really think that many people moved ahead of him? BA has been consistently high on them.
Excellent list
I’m not sure why BA would like Jesus Montero better than Carlos Santana. Yes he’s 3 years younger than Santana and they had a similar wOBA at AA (.418 for Santana and .409 for Montero), but Montero looks to be a DH while Santana looks to be a solid if not better defensive catcher. The only knock on Santana that I’ve read is that he doesn’t speak English very well yet and that hurts his game calling. However, Santana has a cannon of an arm and is a good blocker to go along with his superb offensive skills. Overall even though Montero has a higher offensive ceiling, I believe Santana should get the nod because of his value at catcher.
I also think that Hector Rondon and Daniel Hudson should ranked a little higher, but that’s just nitpicking.
Thanx...
for the response. I think my ranges for Montero and Santana are accurate, which doesnt necessarily mean Montero will be ranked higher. But if Callis’ recent comment is any indication, I think he will be. His comment was something like he’d probably choose Chisenhall as Cleveland’s #1 prospect over Santana. I dont think he’d rank Chisenhall above Montero. Of course, I might be wrong about that, too.
and Robbie Ross
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 25, 2009 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions
Aroldis Chapman
Since he’ll probably will be signed before the list comes out and it really doesn’t matter by who if he’s got 100-mph heat from the left side my guess is he’s included in the top 100.
I’ll venture the guess of him squeezing into the top 25, somewhere between 20-25 and easily before 35.
Just a not on that
@jorgearangure RT @NYPOST_Mets The Mets won’t be pursuing Cuban defector Aroldis Chapman after being told he wants up to $60 million to sign.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 25, 2009 2:03 PM EDT up reply actions
note*
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 25, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions
Why would you not be greedy? Get yours, especially when you're a pitcher and haven't made money before.
Tools Whore
stras was not a free agent
this guy is a free agent
i used to not care, and often think most athletes were udnerpaid
dunno, maybe its due to our economic times, but $60 mil just seems too ridiculous to me
don't really disagree
but because he is a free agent…if he can get 4 or 5 teams (like all large markets, another reason baseball is f’d up, that’s for another day) bidding for him…he’ll get that much.
baseball rules.
Chapman
From what I’ve heard, if Chapman were eligible, he’d be in their top 10. I would expect that he will get signed, if he can get into the country, which I’d expect he will. Maybe he wont get $60 mil, but if his workouts for teams look good, he’ll get a lot from somebody.
BA can't be that stupid.
Chapman may have huge heat, but his secondary stuff still needs work.
As for the money, who knows. International free agents may have more freedom to choose, but teams aren’t going to throw out money brazenly to someone they aren’t sure on.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Oct 27, 2009 2:25 AM EDT up reply actions
Jake Arietta?
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
Follow me on twitter
so Gamel and Escobar are indeed eligible I guess
even though both have over 130 PAs…. hmm, got me thinking that the AB cutoff is kinda stupid. either way I forgot to include them in my list because i was looking at PA when i made the cutoff, lolz
I believe Gamel isn’t eligible as a “prospect”, Escobar is, it’s 130 AB or more they use, so Gamel is right at 130 and Alcides had 129.
The rule is...
not more than 130 MLB ABs. So Gamel and Escobar are both eligible for BA’s list, and most probably you will see them both on there.
Ynoa at 60?
ugh
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
I can't decide if you think this is too high or too low.
I want to say too high, because it clearly is, but I’m sure a lot of homers think the opposite.
+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
way too high
For a kid who lost a full season of time and has zero professional innings to look at I can’t see him being ranked this high.
Bryan Smith (12:17:17 PM PT): Justin Smoak and Josh Hamilton. The AL West might just have found their Bash Brothers, v. 2.0.
i dont think
he even gets in the top 100
i think based on upside alone,
he’s certainly a top 200 prospect, but i wouldn’t put him in my top 150 or so
Maybe
I could certainly see placing him in the 150-200 range if you really believe in the scouting reports, but he wouldn’t make mine. There are a lot of other high upside arms who have played competitive baseball and haven’t lost a season to injury.
The range is...
50-100. Maybe closer to 100, I dont know. He was #54 last year and hadnt pitched then either. He hasnt lost any talent, so unless his injury is expected to be a long-term concern, which I havent heard it is, I think he’ll be on the list somewhere.
He may not have lost talent (though it's possible with any injury)
But he’s lost a year of development. Of course he’s still very, very young, but he can’t be ranked as high as last year because he’s a little bit less of a unique commodity now.
by thejd44 on Oct 31, 2009 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Bard no longer a rookie
Although only 49 1/3 innings he was up far more than 45 days during the period of 25 man rosters. Thus he won’t be on the list. Also, Carter was ranked third in Texas League by BA behind Latos, who passed 50 innings and Smoak who will be way up the list, leaving a lot of room for Carter to rank as high as the mid-20s.
re: Bard
Yes, he will. BA doesn’t look at service days like the rookie requirements.
question
Why is Turner ranked above Crosby at this point? Is his stuff that much better?
Also, why no Avila?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
It's a BA list
I’d be absolutely shocked if they didn’t rank Turner ahead of Crosby. BA doesn’t seem to like Casey Crosby all that much for whatever reason; Callis ranked him 6th in the Midwest League (behind Aaron Hicks, Dee Gordon, Josh Vitters, Brett Lawrie and Mike Montgomery). I don’t agree with it, but I think the ranking is on point.
KG seems to like Casey Crosby a lot more, and I’m interested to see if Crosby or Turner gets the number 1 spot when his top 11’s come out.
Clarification
“I don’t agree with it, but I think the ranking is on point.”
Just wanted to clarify that I meant that I don’t agree with BA’s lack of enthusiasm for Crosby, so I think rhd’s ranking is on point.
Fair enough
Thanks!
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Oct 26, 2009 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I like Elbert
But I don’t think the Dodgers have much interest in trying him as a starter. It’s a shame, but his prospect status takes a pretty big hit as a reliever.
nice list
i like the ranking range too.
i’d knock down westmoreland, kelly, moustakas, ynoa, beckham down some notches. keeping westmoreland in the top 50, the others out. kelly is a top 50 prospect, but i’d discount him a bit until he is firm on his decision to be a pitcher. ynoa doesn’t deserve a top 100 nod. hm yeah. moustakas should be in the 50-100 range. beckham fringe top 50 at best. i recall reading in a few places that he might have to move out of ss.
randell delgardo should get a hm.
agree about Delgado...
he’s a very underrated arm
Ryan Strieby
What am i missing here? why isn’t this guy a solid lock for top 100 prospect? he just turned 24 and spent the full season in Double A this season. He was drafted in the 4th round in 2006. Here are some cherry picked stats from his last two seasons:
2008 – A – Lakeland – FSL – 421 AB, .278/.352/.563, 46:101 BB: K, 29 HR
2009 – AA – Erie – EL – 294 AB, .303/.427/.565, 57:80 BB:K, 19 HR
He is a 6’6" monster and has dominated at each level while showing the ability to make adjustments. The Tigers have been keeping him at each level for a full season, but with Miggy at 1B I could see them converting Strieby to an OF or trading him.
I didn’t mention he did have wrist injuries which only allowed him to play in 86 games this year and he hasn’t been immune to other nagging injuries in the past. Still – it didn’t seem to sap his power as he had 38 extra base hits in 294 ABs while OPSing .992 in a strong pitcher’s league.
Thoughts?
There isn't a lot
to not like about Strieby, and he could be one who is slipping through the cracks due to age? He certainly has put up some well above average numbers in both power (.283 IsoP in 2008 / .263 IsoP in 2009) and his ability to take a walk (9.6% in 2008 / 15.6% in 2009). The Tigers have been very cautious with him (1 level per year), although that isn’t a rarity with their hitting prospects.
forgot to mention
that in such a weak system and large-market franchise, usually a guy like Strieby would be overrated.
interesting.
Wondering what is keeping him out in your opinion?
I feel like looking at the 1B prospect universe, he is severely underhyped and gets less credit for outperforming his peers.
Not trying to defend my suggestion he should be in there, just curious to hear your viewpoints.
by saltybiscuits on Oct 28, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions
Probably the only reason he isn't high on radars is because, well...
he’s 24. Not that diminishes his ability to break out, but still, it’s less impressive a line in context of his age.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I too...
am impressed by Strieby’s stats and would expect that he would be getting more hype. But BA left him completely off their League Top 20’s (EL), so he doesnt get a mention here. I imagine he’ll be #6 or #7 on Detroit’s Top 10, maybe higher. Someone I have my eye on.
i agree
strieby has been a masher…and lets not forget about another guy who was a bit old for the minor leagues (ryan howard)…look how that turned out
injuries
there was quite a few folks who thought he could be decent. injuries have killed any chances he had.
baseball rules.
that and not performing....
i’ve yet to understand why people were ever even high on him…
Fire Everyone
by billybeingbilly on Nov 3, 2009 8:24 PM EST up reply actions
i loved Botts
baseball love, not man love.
by richieabernathy on Oct 30, 2009 5:24 PM EDT up reply actions
i stood right next to him many years ago when he played in Savannah
one of the most impressive physical specimens i’ve seen
Injury risk plays a big part
His age plays a little part. We’ll all be getting much more familiar with Streiby (probably as a LF or DH) very soon.
Anyone else see a little Billy Butler in him- pure hitter, bad defensively?
President, Vice President and Secretary of the Casey Crosby Fanclub.
by David Tokarz on Oct 28, 2009 10:13 PM EDT up reply actions
not with that strikeout rate.
Pure hitter? No. He could have a Kevin Millar ceiling though, which is a lot better than it sounds.
I know you have a range, but...
You have Hellickson and Rondon ranked way too low IMO
If Hellickson isn't top 50 much less as low as 75 BA must just not like him or something
everyone else seems to have him top 30 and some top 20. I’m not really sure what else he can do to prove he deserves to be in the top pitching prospect discussion. The kid has stuff + results. Forgive him, lincecum, Oswalt, Pedro for not being 6’4
Jennings, Hellickson, Davis, Brignac, Beckham, Moore > Your top 3
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