2nd tier Catcher smackdown
by daveh33 on Oct 20, 2009 2:33 PM EDT
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PrintI did enjoy the smackdowns... but I think it'd be cool to include more than just a couple names.
My "top" tier is Posey, Montero, Santana, Norris, and Flowers. So I'm including the next 10 names at the C spot. Fact-based discussion strongly encouraged.
My 2010 Top 100 list is almost done, but I have to admit that catcher is the hardest to gauge, so I look forward to seeing the results/discussions out of this one.
I think the next tier looks something like this:
Jason Castro - HOU
Hank Conger - LAA
Josh Thole - NYM
Wil Myers - KC
Austin Romine - NYY
Christian Bethancourt - ATL
Tony Sanchez - PIT
Alex Avila - DET
Wilson Ramos - MIN
Travis D'Arnaud - PHI
5 of these are currently in the 70-100 of my list... 2 others were on there but I have since knocked them out. Ramos seems over-rated to me.
I thought about including a poll, but I'd rather just see everyone post their own rankings. I'll post mine later
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No Donaldson?
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
Adam Moore
I put him a tick above Thole (of course, I’m less impressed by Thole than most).
Moore,
I like Adam Moore than Thole also. I’ve read his defense is mediocre though. I’m not sure how much better Thole’s is, but i prefer Moore’s bat to that of Thole’s.
Also, how good is Moore’s arm? If anyone has more info, please share…
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
Most reports I've seen have Moore as a pretty good defensive catcher...
and his arm is his best tool, defensively.
+1
"Life is a horizontal fall" -Jean Cocteau
by King Richard on Oct 20, 2009 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah Another +1
I think in any kind of list, you need to include the “also-rans”. Whether it’s a Top100 with 15 HMs, or a Top 10 Positional list, I think you should include the guys who just missed. I don’t know what makes someone like Thole better than Donaldson in the overall rankings. If it’s defense, then we have to rethink Conger even being on the list (although I’ve read he’s improved this year). But a complete lack of power has to be taken into consideration somewhere. Doubles turn into homers, SOMETIMES, but not always.
Let's see.
Castro
Sanchez
Thole
Avila
Romine
Myer
Conger
D’Arnaud
Bethancourt
Ramos
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Caleb Joseph?
Check out my website, it has scouting reports for all the Orioles' top prospects and is updated daily. www.oriolesprospects.com
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by Jordan Tuwiner on Oct 20, 2009 4:03 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Wow, some of these lists look like the inverse of mine . .
Thole and Castro are getting way overrated, methinks.
1) Avila
2) Ramos
3) Myers
4) D’ Arnaud
5) Conger
6) Sanchez
7) Castro
8) Bethancourt
9) Romine
10) Thole
yeah...
I really dont get the Castro love. So far as pro he has been less than impressive. Very blah.
He hasn't done anything bad...
and he has the tools to be really good. he is pretty fast and will likely develop at least average power.
Everything Ive read said that this year made scouts really downgrade his tools
Seems like your typical catching prospect who is getting lots of play mostly b/c he’s a catcher. Good candidate for catcher stagnation syndrome at the higher levels.
why?
What evidence do you have that leads you to believe this? He even cut his K% below 14% in AA. That’s usually the biggest problem. The only fault he seems to have right now is his lack of power. Great OBP (especially for a catcher) has stayed constant across all levels.
Disappointing: Jason Castro, Astros (Saguaros)
There’s nothing necessarily wrong with Castro, Houston’s first-round pick in last year’s draft out of Stanford. The question is what he does especially well. Scouts just can’t identify any plus tool other than a smooth, contact-oriented swing that should allow him to consistently hit for average, leaving him as a low secondary skills hitter and an average defender who should be a solid big leaguer, but nothing approaching a star.
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9623
Jason Castro, C, Astros (10th overall)
This selection was nearly universally panned when it was made, but those screams turned to whispers when Castro hit .309/.399/.517 at High-A Lancaster in the early going this year, and then hit a home run in the Futures Game. Numbers at Lancaster always need to be taken with a spoonful of salt, and while Castro flirted with .300 at Double-A, his power disappeared, and he finished with a line of .293/.362/.385 in 63 Texas League games. He’s not a bad prospect, and he’s very nearly a sure-fire big leaguer. But scouts see no tools to project him as any more than average at best…
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9586
fwiw, Goldstein was never a Castro fan and lampooned the pick pretty badly. Castro’s performance this year was less than inspiring, though. He hit at Lancaster – whoop de doo! He’s shown very little power outside of the most hitter friendly park in the minors. Castro really did nothing to help his prospect status this year, IMHO. Same guy we thought he was last year: Just enough of everything to probably be a decent MLB catcher, but no real chance at being anything more. That’s not getting him very far on my prospect lists. If he was MLB ready in AAA or raking, sure… but there’s just not a whole lot to recommend the guy. Whenever I look at catching prospects I seem to list the guys I like and then when I run out of names I think to myself “I should probably throw Castro in there.”
Adam Foster
at Project Prospect seems to believe he is a good catcher, nice receiving skills and arm. I think Adam was a catcher himself. Good eye and balance at the plate, compact swing, but not much power. I know that isn’t his mle, but if he eventually is a decent catcher in the field and hits close to that .290/.360/.385 TL line in the majors, he’d be a top 10 starting catcher. At least based on last year’s major league crop. But with Posey, Wieters and santana coming on catcher is picking up, and you’re right, he isn’t the most exciting catcher, although 2nd tier already implies that.
A catcher
At what level was Adam Foster a catcher? If he last played in high school, that’s not noteworthy. He’s a journalist, not an athlete.
oh, I know
He played college ball with Descalso at cal-Davis, i think.
I would assume that playing college ball, talking to scouts, watching tons of these guys play at all levels live and on tape, he has some inkling. Did Goldstein play any ball? Did John?
I don’t know that Adam is an expert, but he seems like he knows his stuff.
oops
I may have misread that. He went to college with Descalso, didn’t say he played there. I read elsewhere he had played and then got injured, but maybe that wasn’t college ball. My mistake. He still gives a pretty good take on his D and i think he knows his stuff.
Looked it up
From his PP profile:
The 25-year-old played baseball in high school, but realized that 5-foot-7 lefties who only: hit to the opposite field, run a tick above average, and attack hitters with a two-seam changeup/four-seam changeup combo don’t tend to draw much interest from college programs.
Did Goldstein play any ball? Did John?
Not to my knowledge, but no one is claiming their opinions on the rigors/skills of a position is granted more authority because there previously.
I wasn’t criticizing Foster’s abilities as an analyst, just the idea that his opinions should be viewed with extra weight, since they are those of a “catcher.”
good catch
Like I said I think I mistook an post of his as meaning he played with Descalso at Cal-Davis. And for some reason i thought he was a a catcher. That’s why i added that. If not I suppose you are right. Although i like the sound of that 2 seam change-up/4 seam change-up combo. :)
you still didn't answer why he is a prime prospect for catcher stagnation syndrome...
the little pieces you posted seem to indicate he will be a very capable major league catcher and has no mention that he is a prime prospect to flame out. Quite the opposite actually. They seem to think he will be a solid catcher, maybe just not one that was worthy of a top 10 pick. But if I can get a catcher in the first round that will be starting for me within 2 years of being drafted, handle the bat pretty fairly (but with the only caveat being his limited power) , and handle my pitching staff, I’d say go ahead and draft him. Not to mention that he’d have a top 5 OBP for catchers. He might not be someone to build around but he’s definitely not near the bust that you seem to envision.
First off, you really shouldnt try to justify the draft pick. That battle is over and lost. It was a bad pick. End of story.
I think he’s a good candidate for catcher stagnation syndrome b/c he doesnt have any real plus tools other than contact hitting, and that’s a pretty fluky tool. Playing at Lancaster has made him look better than he is. If in 2010 he puts up a line similar to his second half that would be a pretty big disappointment, no?
As was mentioned in the quotes above, he’s also an average defender, not a plus one. So the lack of power is really troubling. So… he hasnt impressed at all with his performance… nor are his tools impressive.I find these types of guys are the ones who seem to be victimized most by CSS. We basically put them on top prospect lists because hey, you gotta have some catchers on there, right? Castro is a good candidate for CSS because what recommends is that he doesnt have any glaring flaws… not because he has anything he does really well. That’s one of the major ways prospects get overrated, IMHO.
I do NOT necessarily envision him a bust. I think the odds are he’ll be a solid major league regular. Im just not enamored of him as a prospect because I dont see him as a sure thing at all and his ceiling is relatively low. There are a good number of catching prospects Id much rather have.
Im not really sure what youre objecting to so strenuously … My original statement was:
yeah, I really dont get the Castro love. So far as pro he has been less than impressive. Very blah.
Battle Over?
Really? I think you have to wait a few years before declaring whether that ws such a bad pick. Some guys behind him may become stars, sure, but a lot of them will flame out. Smoak went next and I’d prefer him too, but i am not sure of the money or other issues involved.
If alskor himself thinks Castro should be a "solid major league regular"...
then it’s pretty hard to turn around and argue it was a bad pick. I think 26 or 27 teams each year would be thrilled with “solid major league regular” in the first round.
Disagree
With a top 10 pick, most teams would rather take a guy with more upside. It was a bad pick then and it still looks like a bad pick. This isnt about cherry picking guys who were picked afterwards and saying “they should have taken player x.” You can do that with nearly every pick of every draft, of course. At the time, pretty much everyone in baseball and baseball analysis lampooned this pick as a bad one, perhaps made to save money. If Castro looked like a stud I would say I was wrong about the pick, but he doesnt. He looks like a pretty mediocre player without anything special about him, but who does enough that he has a pretty good shot of being a MLB player. That’s not a good first round pick. You cant use the logic that x amount of first round picks fail. The logical extension of that is that “most 1st rounders fail and never make the majors, so a team should be happy if they drafted an Alex Cora clone, because at least they got a useful player.” That obviously isnt correct. You expect a little more out of top half of the 1st round picks.
logical extension
Really? Alex Cora is a solid MLB regular (which was the term you used for Castro)? That’s just a little bit of a stretch. If you can get a solid MLB regular at a premium position at #10, it is not a bad pick. It’s easy to write off his Lancaster numbers, but no one talks about Corpus Christi being a hard park for lefties to hit for power. The breeze coming off the bay makes it difficult to hit out unless you hit it down the LF line. Not that anyone labels him a top prospect, but I expect people to make the same observations with Gaston when his power numbers drop off at Corpus. Back to Castro, he could turn out to be a Scott Hatteberg-type offensively, with better defense, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
by astrosfan76 on Oct 22, 2009 10:39 PM EDT up reply actions
Yup
That’s a bad pick for #10 when there’s zero chance of being better. There’s nothing wrong with a Hatterberg type, youre right… but that still go in the disappointment column.
Come now
If Castro hits like Hatteberg, but actually sticks at and is a good C, then it will be a great pick. How many catchers are their with good defense and capable of exceeding a 100 OPS+?
I think you are exaggerating the poorness of his toolset. He doesn’t have plus tools, but he has enough to be a good major player. Frem BA’s Texas league top 20 (He was #6):
Castro doesn’t have a standout tool, but he’s a slightly above-average hitter who should have average power. He has a knack for staying inside the ball as well as good pitch recognition. He’s a solid catcher with good defensive skills and the ability to handle a pitching staff. He threw out 28 percent of basestealers in the after nabbing 59 percent in the Cal League.
sounds ok to me
This oughta be fun to keep track of through the years.
Non-sequitor in a way, but Werth is a guy that some saw a bust for years, turned into a decent player. of course he was a catcher from HS with high upside i guess. Not like catsro. But on the issue of how long it takes to tell how good a pick was.
I don't see
why you can’t use the logic that x amount of first round picks fail. You also cannot dismiss money issues, signability, etc., not hat i know the details there. Skipworth went before him and seems like a much worse pick for now. Hell, Tim Beckham was number 1 and he has more upside I guess but we don’t know how that will turn out. Hosmer at 3. Cooper at 17. I really think it is Smoak at 11 that really burns some people about that pick.
The Astros are likely happy they got Lyles later.
Like it or not...
probability of being a successful player matters when evaluating prospects. It’s not all about ceiling. The fact that Castro has the tools to be an above-average major league catcher, and is much more likely to reach that ceiling than most players on this list, makes him a perfectly reasonable pick at that spot. Most evaluators (and many have admitted it since) were just wrong about Castro, at least to a degree.
Didn't BA have him at like No. 19 in their mid-season top prospects list?
That’s pretty high praise.
I think he'll be a fine mediocre catcher
decent defense, 7 or 8 hitter, stick around for awhile. Not a bad guy to have in your system (I’m a Mariners fan, and I’d rather have Castro than Moore), but nothing close to an essential player. I think the top five guys on my list have a decent shot of becoming occasional all-stars, or above average contributors in one way or another (a la Mike Napoli or Yadier Molina), so it seems catcher is pretty stacked these days. I think all ten are ML players; the only ones I could see not having some sort of ML career are Bethancourt (ways to go) or Conger (injuries move him off position, and he stalls as a AAAA slugging DH).
I agree with Frederick and gogotabata
mine would be
1. Ramos
2. Sanchez
3. Avila
4. Castro
5. Conger
6. D’Arnaud
7. Myers
8. Romine
9. Thole
10. Bethancourt (but he is getting better)
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 20, 2009 5:13 PM EDT reply actions
He certainly is
All you hear are great things about this young guy. Of course I am a Braves fan so I will think but he will probably be the best of this bunch in there years.
I'll go:
Travis d’Arnaud
Wilson Ramos
Austin Romine
Alex Avila
Jason Castro
Tony Sanchez
Wil Myers (I like his bat, but I have doubts about his ability to stay at catcher)
Hank Conger (same as Myers)
Christian Bethancourt
Josh Thole
I love this one
I would move Sanchez down two spots though.
Why....
Sanchez is a good hitter with good defense. I would compare him to the rookie version of Geovany Soto.
It isn't that I dislike him
as much as it is that I like the 2 behind him just a tick more
His bat
The questions regarding his ability to hit don’t go away simply because he hit well in 155ABs in the SAL. That’s an very small sample size and it was against competition that he should be doing well against. He, himself, said that he models his game after Yadier Molina and that’s what I see his ceiling being.
He’s a good prospect, but I don’t think he’s anywhere near elite.
I don't think there is any reason...
fir people to not have Castro and Sanchez in the top 2. They are pretty far ahead of everyone else in my opinion. after that though, you could have any of the guys in any spot and it wouldn’t be a bad list.
Myers and Avila are my top 2.
and i think far ahead of the others.
this is a very tough group to rank
mine
Myers
Avila
Bethancourt
Conger
Sanchez
Ramos
Castro
D’Arnaud
Romine
Thole.
Ramos and Castro are a toss-up for me… I might like Castro better tomorrow
Bethancourt
I don’t know if I would put him that high, but it’s better than the #10 placement that most people have been giving him. He had a really good year.
by blindsided789 on Oct 20, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking Bethancourt was being way underrated
The Braves seem to have a pretty good history with catching prospects. They paid him a lot. And BA seems to like him.
He has much still to prove though.
I agree.
But still, he has a lot of upside IMO. More than enough to give him a good spot on this list.
by blindsided789 on Oct 21, 2009 2:36 PM EDT up reply actions
Mine
1. Castro
2. Sanchez
3. D’Arnaud
4. Conger
5. Ramos
6. Avila
7. Romine
8. Myers
9. Thole
10. Betancourt
Max Stassi?
Any thoughts on the Oakland backstop? I thought he was equal (if not better) than Wil Myers heading into the draft.
The one constant through all the years, Ray, has been baseball. It reminds us of all that once was good, and that could be again.
Myers
Absolutely slaughtered the ball in his short time, haven’t researched Stassi yet (quickly looked at it, .705 OPS, but sample size). Will say that Myers was compared to Dale Murphy by BA, and could play anywhere from C-1B-OF based on bat-projections and the way the bat actually played in Rk Ball, with the obvious caveat of small sample sizes.
i think i remember in one of the BA chats
that Myers could handle CF if he can’t stick at C…. that gives you an idea as to how athletic he is.
well you can see the athleticism in the draft video too.
i love this kid. so upset the Rays didn’t pick him in the 1st round
Stassi
Pre draft most had him projected mid to late 1st rd, higher than Myers and likely the 1st HS catcher taken. Both obviously fell due to signability. I get the impression that stassi is the better defensive catcher, despite Myers being the better athlete (maybe why they keep saying he’ll switch positions also due to his size). Maybe like a jayson werth did.
by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 20, 2009 9:38 PM EDT up reply actions
Thole
How come no love for the man? Everywhere he goes he hits for a high average and high OBP, he looked very good in his stint in the bigs. Only downsides in my eyes are his power(which I dont see as a problem as long as he hits) and defense behind the plate which is something he keeps getting better at because of his late move to behind the plate
"My name is Daniel Murphy and I bat 3rd."
I dont like Thole much at all
I see a backup catcher or flawed, second division type starter. He’s just too limited as a batter… empty averages and walk rates that wont translate to MLB… where pitchers will realize he’s just a slap hitter. Its not like he’s an elite defender, either.
I could see him going either way – backup catcher or AAAA, but if he’s starting for the New York Mets… well, somebody needs to be fired (if there wasnt enough evidence for that already). Thole is what he is… and that’s a pretty marginal major leaguer. Lack of power combined with so-so defense is a pretty big problem for a catching prospect in my book.
Reminds me
I meant to make a post about this… I want to take a look at the most common mistakes people make when looking at prospects. I would have near the top of my list:
- “He hit at every level in the minors!”; and
- “Sure, he’s not a great hitter, but for a catcher/shortstop/centerfielder…”
Thole combines both of these in a perfect storm…
People see the one guy in a million who becomes a star in spite of this, and they burn it into their brains that they can recognize the next unheralded star this way. Take a step back. Both scouting wise and (translated) numbers wise, Josh Thole is a pretty unremarkable prospect. He’s not bad… he’s OK. There really isnt anything special or exciting about his ability to play baseball that portends success at the MLB level.
"just a slap hitter"
uh, he still had 32 XBH. He’s not a power hitter, but he can hit the ball. And his OBP makes him more valuable. Even if he dropped 40 BA points as a full time big leaguer, his OBP is about .350, which is average for a big leaguer, regardless of position. That’s something. You can’t just ignore that because you just dislike his power.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
ok i just checked again [because last time i checked was beginning of august with dewey's rankings]
his babip for the season in milb ended up at .358… closer to normal but still high… and it was mostly because of his aug babip of .276 that dragged him back to earth.
there were a ton of posts about this in the dewey/kbr C ranking thread.
Thole is a groundball-hitting catcher with no power who got lucky this year. he makes contact, that’s about it
You need to think of him as someone with a designed, specific approach.
It’s not exact, because Thole has SOME power, but think of him like Luis Castillo. Guy specifically goes up to the plate trying to make contact. He won’t strike out much, he’ll draw a decent amount of walks, and he’ll spray the ball into the field. A BABIP of .350 is probably a bit high for him, but for someone of his skillset, a BABIP around .320 isn’t unreasonable. So that’s what I’m saying. Even if his BA drops 30, 40 points, he’s still putting up an average line for a catcher.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
I mean, Derek Jeter has a career BABIP of like .360.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Derek Jeter hits a lot of line drives
Thole, um, doesn’t.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
he actually does
I think this is a case where the minor league batted ball data is inaccurate.
he actually does hit line drives.
Agreed, the minor league batted ball data sounds somewhat inaccurate on this one.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
The thing is
he has such a power deficiency that when he has a prolonged exposure to the majors his SLG and ISO will most likely drop, and consequently his walks should as well, as pitcher wont be afraid to pitch to him. The Major Leagues are more difficult than the minors. Its a mistake to assume his rates will translate consistently. That is rather unlikely.
His line, translated for peak performance on BP
is .293/.363/.426
That’s something.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
Yes
That’s something… something taken out of context that is not at all meant to be predictive of future MLB performances.
Actually, that's CLEARLY what it's meant to do.
Rudimentarily, of course. But still, what other purpose would it have?
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
To evaluate performance
Not meant as a predictor of future performance. They’re two totally different things.
As for Thole, saw this today:
Josh Thole, C, Mets (VEN), 2-for-4, 2B, RBI, K: Thole is batting .385/.467/.500 in 15 games. He has no power and has thrown out just one of 15 opposing base stealers, but he sure knows how to get on base.
I saw that too.
Hey, at least he got one of ’em.
"No power" isn't REALLY true.
“Rescue stations after a hurricane” power is more appropriate. Enough to do something…but not really.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
watch some video of him on MLB's site
http://mlb.mlb.com/search/media.jsp?player_id=489365
He chokes up pretty far on the bat handle and every pitch is pretty much “defensive hitting”. It’s all arms really. He gets the bat into the hitting zone pretty quickly and has a knack for making solid contact, but he’ll rarely hit the ball with any loft with his approach.
Skipworth
I’m guessing that if this topic had been brought up exactly one year ago Kyle Skipworth’s name would’ve been all over this thread. Now he hasn’t been mentioned a single time even in passing. That’s what a .612 OPS and 32% k-rate will do for you.
Good post.
Donaldson
Ive seen some people on AN kid of overrate him, but for a catcher he has a solid bat. Just not sure where he’ll play in the majors with kurt suzuki around. The only spot might be 3b,but thats untilwallace gets his chance to succeed or fail there defensively
LuCroy - Brewers...
Jonathan Lucroy
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 20, 2009 10:44 PM EDT reply actions
Lucroy
I like him too. A lot of these guys are good but have flaws. Hard for me to rank them. The project prospect dudes seem to like d’Arnaud, although i think they ranked Sanchez ahead of him. I’ll have to go back and study them some more.
And Salome made the top 20 in BA, so he may deserve some consideration, although his year was not so good.
doesn't like everybody love Jason Castro?
I don’t see how he’s in the second tier at all. He’s a better prospect than at least two of the prospects you listed, and one of the others that you listed is most likely not a catcher anyways. Solid all-around tools on both sides of the plate with a good eye . . .I think it’s just a matter of needing some ABs to adjust to pro competition until he breaks out in a big way.
As for the other guys, I’ve been an avowed Austin Romine fan since he was in the Sally and I don’t see a reason to veer from that now. He needs better patience but the bat has an awful lot of potential.
Not 2nd Tier Catcher Question - Tony Delmonico!
Anyone have any info on Tony Delmonico (dodgers)?
Posted a very solid 285/383/430. Part of why he interests me is that he’s doing a position switch of sorts – Played most games at 2B in his first year in the minors and then played 49 games at C, 34 at DH and a7 at 1B.
As a dodger prospect, I thought of Russell Martin as who also shifted to C after his first year in the minors. Martin’s BB/K was better, but as a 21 year old in A+ put up a 787 in Vero Beach and a 853 as a 22 year old in Jax.
Would love any insight or thoughts here…
Catchers
6. Tony Sanchez
7. JP Arencibia
8. Jason Castro
9. Wilin Rosario
10. Hank Conger
11. Jonathan Lucroy
12. Travis D’Arnaud
13. Wilson Ramos
14. Angel Salome
15. Austin Romine
I dont have strong feelings one way or the other
but I certainly dont think someone ranking Romine over Thole should raise any eyebrows. I probably take Romine, actually. Romine is solid all around and I expect him to translate better to MLB than Thole, who is entirely dependant on his batting AVG for his value… (with such little power I have trouble seeing him keeping his walk rate that high at the MLB level).
Thole
Coming into the season, BA had Romine as the #4 guy in the Yankees system, and Thole as the #23 guy in the Mets system. At the end of the season, Romine was the #11 prospect in the FSL, 1 spot behind Ike Davis, and Thole was around #28 in the Eastern League, about 15 spots behind Ike Davis.
Now I do think they have Romine over rated slightly. But, you won’t see any experts covering the Mets system debating Thole vs. Ike Davis, either. Thole really isn’t in the discussion in the Mets top half dozen right now, and in the next few spots, I happen to like guys like Nieuwenhuis, Familia, Havens, and Tejada all at least a bit better.
I like Thole, he’s a scrappy contact hitter, who I think will continue to hit enough. But he’ll probably never be an especially good defender, and might be better as a good offensive platoon/bench guy. A good debate might be Thole vs. Mike McKenry, who is a similar bat and probably a better defender. I would argue that Thole being lefty might make it close, though. I would also rank Thole ahead of John Jaso, who is a similar lefty, but I think not quite as good a bat.
I also left off a couple of highly regarded lower level guys in Betancourt and Myers. I’m just not sure yet how good those guys really are.
I’m pretty confident Thole will be a useful big league player. There is always room on a roster for a lefty catcher who can hit for average. You can start him against some RHP, against teams that don’t run much, and use him often as a pinch hitter when you have good matchups. But these other guys seem to have more of a shot to be regular starters. In reality, all won’t make it. Thole may well end up with a better career than a few of those.
But I have to put some weight on ceiling here.
by acerimusdux on Oct 21, 2009 11:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Agree with additional thoughts
While I agree that Thole has a lesser chance of becoming a regular than most of those guys on paper, in reality he may well have a better chance than the group as a whole, due to those skills that will make him a solid bench player. He’ll likely have more chances in case of injury than some of those other guys who won’t always have a clear-cut bench role.
Its also a question of how much progress he makes
He’s only really been a catcher for two seasons, so even though he may not have any eye popping raw tools and his skills may seem limited in their scope now, he may have more room for improvement than one would expect a player typically described in this manor. I’m not saying he’s going to develop a cannon arm all of a sudden, but his actions behind the plate could easily continue improve, he’s not unathletic and his defense really should be more raw than his offensive talent at this point. And you also have to consider how quickly he’s trying to absorb experience as a backstop. If he ever did become a more complete defensive catcher, there’s a good chance that he could focus more of his work on hitting. He obviously doesn’t have a lot of raw power, but his approach is geared almost entirely towards contact right now, and he did manage his highest HR and ISO totals in his FSL season, which is pretty counter-intuitive. Maybe when he feels more comfortable with his defense, it frees up a bit more ability to tinker with approach.
Anyway, of course this is all speculative, but I do think his upside gets undersold by the fact that his bat seems so polished, if unspectacular, and yet his defense lags so far behind. You’d expect that from a guy who’s only been playing the position professionally for half the amount of time as the guys he’s playing in leagues with. Even if his tools aren’t spectacular, they’re good enough for him to develop his skills into them quite a bit further.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 27, 2009 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
2nd tier not so bad
A couple years ago, this could have about qualified as 1st tier. I’ll just give a short list of rankings:
1. Castro
2. Conger
3. Ramos
4. Avila
5. Skipworth ( not on list, but I’m giving a year’s pardon)
The wind is in the buffalo.
Adam Moore...
these lists are a little bit ridiculous. Half of these players will never reach the majors, while Moore is coming into spring training as the favorite for a starting job next year. A catcher 1 year removed from a .300/.400/.500 season in Double-A with solid defensive tools who is as close to a lock to receive several hundred at-bats in the majors next year doesn’t make 90% of these lists?
Is this community really that blind to guys who are guaranteed to become major league players but have limited upside? THere needs to be some kind of balance here.
Why do people keep praising Moore's defense...?
Its not great.
Moore’s defense needs improvement; his receiving and blocking skills are well below average, and his decent arm is often offset by accuracy issues. He also runs like… a big catcher.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8562
He may be good enough to stay behind the plate, but he’s not a good defensive catcher… and likely not going to even be an average one. He’s riding on his bat. I like Moore plenty, but its not like he belongs near the top of the list.
I would agree he is somewhat underrated, though, especially given how close he is to the majors.
Hey dude
can you just post your list so we learn from an expert? You know instead of bashing every prospect.
I posted a list in August.
The next time you contribute something of value will be the first. I cant help it that homer fans of different teams tend to overrate mediocre catcher prospects. It happens every year.
objectivity
I don’t think it is all homerism. I like d’Arnaud, Lucroy, Avila, Sanchez and Castro but I’m a Mets fan. There’s some of that, but mostly I think people try to be objective on this site from what I have seen.
half of them won't reach the majors?
I doubt that. I bet almost all of them will barring injury.
As for Moore, maybe he does deserve a place on the list of next tier catchers. But he wasn’t listed in the post that started this thread and everyone just seemed to rank those guys and not put in their own names. Some other folks tossed out Lucroy and Donaldson.
Moore seems pretty good. He was also 25 this year and 24 last year, so a little older for the competition, but he does seem pretty good.
As for the listed guys, Myers and Bethancourt are far away so perhaps the most questionable as to whether they make it, but they get good reviews. Conger may not be a great fielder but he will almost surely get some major league time for his bat at some point. Thole and Avila have already played in the majors. Castro, Sanchez, d’Arnaud, Romine, Ramos all seem like locks to me to get some major league time. Barring injury.
BA on Stassi
BA: Draft Report Card
QUICK TAKE
Green and Stassi could provide Oakland with a pair of up-the-middle cornerstones from the same draft class.
POSITION PLAYERS
BEST POWER HITTER: Cs Max Stassi (4) and Josh Leyland (16) both have plus raw power, with the edge going to Leyland. He’s short to the ball and long afterward.
BEST DEFENSIVE PLAYER: Stassi had a prep reputation for having a polished bat, but the A’s always have held his glove in high regard. He’s an adept, polished receiver with good footwork and an accurate, strong arm.
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