BA's Sally League Top 20
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 2, 2009 2:24 PM EDT
145 comments
The write up is obviously free so no issue posting it...
Most years, the best teams are led by the best players. In the previous two years in the low Class A South Atlantic League, for example, No. 1 prospects Desmond Jennings (Columbus in 2007) and Madison Bumgarner (Augusta in 2008) sparked their clubs to championships. This season, the storyline was different. League champion Lakewood's highest-rated prospect, outfielder Anthony Gose, checked in at No. 13. Righthander Jason Knapp, who ranked seventh, opened the season with the BlueClaws but finished the season in Lake County after getting included in the trade that sent Cliff Lee from the Indians to the Phillies.
In another change, pitchers rather than position players dominated the league. Thirty-one of the 40 prospects on our 2007-08 SAL Top 20s were hitters, but this year pitchers claimed the first three spots and seven of the top 11. And Asheville lefthander Christian Friedrich would have ranked prominently had he not missed qualifying by two-thirds of an inning. The Rockies' 2008 first-round pick went 3-3, 2.18 with 66 strikeouts in 45 innings for the Tourists.
"There's no question about it. The starting pitching was the cream of the crop," Bowling Green manager Matt Quataro said. "Pitching is where the majority of the talent was."
1. Martin Perez, lhp, Hickory (Rangers)
2. Casey Kelly, rhp/ss, Greenville (Red Sox)
3. Matt Moore, lhp, Bowling Green (Rays)
4. Derek Norris, c, Hagerstown (Nationals)
5. Tim Beckham, ss, Bowling Green (Rays)
6. Jordan Lyles, rhp, Lexington (Astros)
7. Jason Knapp, rhp, Lakewood (Phillies)/Lake County (Indians)
8. Jared Mitchell, of, Kannapolis (White Sox)
9. Manny Banuelos, lhp, Charleston (Yankees)
10. Wilmer Flores, ss, Savannah (Mets)
11. Rudy Owens, lhp, West Virginia (Pirates)
12. Tony Sanchez, c, West Virginia (Pirates)
13. Anthony Gose, of, Lakewood (Phillies)
14. Tim Federowicz, c, Greenville (Red Sox)
15. Dexter Carter, rhp, Kannapolis (White Sox)
16. Nick Barnese, rhp, Bowling Green (Rays)
17. Travis D'Arnaud, c, Lakewood (Phillies)
18. Alex Perez, rhp, Lake County (Indians)
19. Trevor May, rhp, Lakewood (Phillies)
20. Melky Mesa, of, Charleston (Yankees)
Glaring omissions? Who's ranked too high?
1 recs |
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beat me to it
just deleted my post.
Overall, I think it looks like a fairly solid list, IMO, better than the MWL list. The SAL was definitely loaded this year. Can’t say I know leagues without Cubs squads as well, though, so maybe I’m off.
Barnese coming in so low mildly surprises me, and Banuelos seems a tiny bit high, but overall, the list looks relatively fair to me at first glance.
by toonsterwu on Oct 2, 2009 2:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Barnese
was a bit surprising considering how highly regarded he’s become.
Mitchell at 8 was unexpected, same with Kelly at 2.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 2, 2009 2:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rome Braves
Arent the Rome Braves in this league? No Randall Delgado etc…
by NYSOX on Oct 2, 2009 2:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Kind of crazy....
There’s no way a shoulder surgery needing Jason Knapp separated himself enough from Randall Delgado to warrant being #7 while Delgado is #21 IMO.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Travis d'Arnaud
He seems a bit low to me, but that might be because of his struggles early in the year. I’m a bit surprised to see Rudy Owens that high, too. There was a ton of pitching in the SAL this year, and I didn’t think he was regarded quite that highly.
by jar75 on Oct 2, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Few suprises
I thought Carter, Barnese , May and Alex Perez would all beranked ahead of Rudy Owens.
by NYSOX on Oct 2, 2009 2:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Rudy Owens...
had a monster year and has theb est change up in that league and one of the best in the minors.
by joegonzo on Oct 2, 2009 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
True, but......
He’s 2-3 years older than players excluded from this list. If you see enough Sally games, it becomes very obvious ANY pitcher with a quality change is going to have success, and a lot of it.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's 21...
which isn’t much older than any of these players. Also, his change up is more than quality, it is a true plus pitch.
by joegonzo on Oct 4, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He also tore apart...
Carolina league hitters once he was promoted.
by joegonzo on Oct 4, 2009 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Where is Xavier Avery?
I was shocked he didn’t make the list. A two sport athlete in high school, Avery doesn’t have nearly the baseball background of other ultra-athletic guys like Anthony Gose, but he made adjustments and held his own in the SALLY League at 19! Furthermore, he’s not just a slap hitter. Scouts think he has a Carl Crawford like offensive potential, obviously that might be a little ambitious, but the point remains that he has some power potential.
by Birdfan01 on Oct 2, 2009 2:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
held his own...
to the tune of a .262/.306/.340 slash line. And half the list was 19 or younger, so that alone shouldn’t get him on.
by aCone419 on Oct 2, 2009 10:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ya
the numbers in and of themselves are not impressive. But when he was drafted, a lot of people viewed him as 2 year rookie ball player, because of the poor HS competition he faced/being a 2-sport guy. Compare him to a guy like Destin Hood of the Nationals, who has not yet made it to full-season ball, but is very highly regarded. My argument is that Avery’s ability to transition to pro ball so quickly, combined with his incredible athleticism make him a very good prospect and a player worthy of making this top 20 list.
by Birdfan01 on Oct 2, 2009 10:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
well, you're half right
He’s a good prospect despite being really, really raw. To give a somewhat educated speculation guess, .262/.306/.340 in the Sally would probably rate as something close to .290/.340/.410 in rookie ball. That’d be pretty good and might just get him inside a short-season top 20, but the Midwest/Sally Leagues are ALWAYS loaded with tons of interesting high upside prospects and it’s really competitive. In almost any given year you could go 35-40 deep and still find really interesting guys.
He’ll be interesting to watch next year. I worry some that he’s a good candidate to go out there and repeat the Sally to the tune of another .650 OPS, but we’ll see.
by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2009 11:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Avery
I really liked Avery when I saw him play. Good bat control, worked to his strengths by hitting ground balls back up the middle and using his legs. He had crazy range, but he made things a bit of an adventure.
With Gose, Jay Austin, and Avery, the Sally had a number of phenomenal athletes manning CF.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:41 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
this list is pretty solid
did Julio Teheran not have enough innings?
by daveh33 on Oct 2, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
After the top ten, I don’t really like this list at all.
Randall Delgado should certainly up there ahead of Owens, D. Carter, Mesa, etc.
by gogotabata on Oct 2, 2009 2:43 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Delgado
Maybe I am way off..but I thought he could possibly be the Braves # 3 prospect after Heyward and Freeman. I was thinking it was a possibility..that he would be at least in the top 3 in this league…I was WAY off I guess.
by NYSOX on Oct 2, 2009 2:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
mabye just a poorly constructed list?
The top 4, and Lyles, are the only ones on this list I’d definitely prefer to Delgado.
by gogotabata on Oct 2, 2009 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BA lists
As much as I like BA. I seem to think this list could be one of those problems that happens because BA has so many sets of eyes making lists and gathering info on prospects. This is a major reason I like Johns site..it is his opinion, his wording and his accountability. You may not like a list, you may like a list one individual likes…but at least you know where it comes from
by NYSOX on Oct 2, 2009 3:01 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Delgado a lot, and I’d agree with you before BA on this. Delgado seems like a glaring omission from this list.
Another auspicious omission that I just realized: Anthony Rizzo.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 2, 2009 3:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Tehran
well, this guy seems very hot on Julio Tehran (or is it Teheran?), saying he’d have had him in the top 5 if he’d have enough innings. That said, I agree with you and BA seems way off here. I certainly like Delgado more than Tehran though not by a big margin, and it is debatable. What doesn’t seem to me to be debatable is that Delgado should at least have been on the top 20. Alot of the guys in the 2nd half of this list are JAGs (just another guy). With the way Delgado finished the season, hard not to see the reasoning behind not including him.
by scooter on Oct 2, 2009 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
er...
that is: hard to see the reasoning behind not including him.
by scooter on Oct 2, 2009 4:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
it's the way he STARTED the season.
he struggled BIG TIME.
i like Teheran more than Delgado, but they’re both top 15 on this list (maybe top-10).
by apoxonbothyourhouses on Oct 5, 2009 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
+1,000,000
I don’t love the top 10, but can live with it. I REALLY did not like numbers 11-20. It looks like they just looked at stats.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I thought Jeurys Familia should have been at least under consideration
Granted I don’t really know enough about the depth of the league or some of the guys at the back of this list to judge. Still, Familia had a huge breakout year.
"All energy flows according to the whims of the great magnet
What a fool I was to defy him"
-HST
by Mark Himmelstein on Oct 2, 2009 2:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Woah, where's Familia or Allen?
You gotta have at least one of them there, I think.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 2, 2009 2:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
If you place Banuelos #9
Then Allen, Familia, and Pimentel should be included. Of the guys I saw, they were the second tier.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wilmer Font needs to be on there.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 2, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Fastball Font
He lit up the gun when I watched him pitch, but the ball is straight as an arrow and Sand Gnats hitters were raking him.
His change was his second best pitch, but his CB was terrible.
I would rank a number of other pitchers before I ranked Font. To be honest, Neil Ramirez had a better two-pitch mix than Font did and his prospect status has crashed and burned.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:45 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just one start
And alot of people are happy with his progression this year. Also remember that he didn’t pitch much at all last year.
The 2009 Texas Rangers offense: sigh...
by Kinslerhomer on Oct 4, 2009 11:50 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Damn, surprised to see mah boi Casey Kelly at #2,
but I’ll happily take it.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 2, 2009 4:00 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Completely Deserving
He already has an average FB, and borderline plus CB and CH. He’s going to move quickly.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The velocities seem way off
Kelly throws 90-94, but Lyles is 89-91.
That makes no sense, given their respective strikeout numbers.
Kelly has great secondary stuff, but was average in the K department, while Lyles has average secondary stuff, but struck out fellows left and right.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 2, 2009 4:07 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
That's what he's saying
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 2, 2009 4:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know, i wasn't sure why they could make such an obvious error
by daveh33 on Oct 2, 2009 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
And bullshit on Kelly being 90-94
I love Casey Kelly, but every report has him in the high-80s.
And, anyway, if he were 90-94 (with movement), a plus curveball, an above-average changeup, and plus-plus command, he would be striking out about 10/9 IP, instead of like 7/9 or whatever it was this year.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 2, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kelly is 84-88, touches 90
Kelly is Mike Musina (comparison). He’s polished as they come. But he isn’t a power pitcher. Like he isn’t a power hitter. He’s a great player and knows how to pitch, but he isn’t a power arm by any means.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Oct 3, 2009 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
is there a worry that
Knowing how to pitch might not be enough as he moves up the ladder, at least to the point where he becomes a star?
by wobatus on Oct 3, 2009 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would think so
He also doesn’t sit 84-88, it’s definitely not 90-94, but his fb isn’t that low.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 3, 2009 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
projectprospect top 25
Has Kelly at 86-90.
http://www.projectprospect.com/article/2009/10/01/top-25-pitching-prospects
I believe Scoutingthesally actually was at at least one of his games.
by wobatus on Oct 3, 2009 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
kelly fb
Yeah, 84-88 is a lot lower than just about anybody else has him at. And suffice it to say, if Kelly was going out there and throwing 84-88 MPH, he’d be a shortstop (where he’d probably rate very highly on this list anyways) and not a pitcher.
Project Prospect sounds accurate. FB velocity pretty average at the moment but with enough size, projection and athleticism to expect more on the way. Other attributes look excellent.
by mrkupe on Oct 3, 2009 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Totally correct. 86-88 touching 90!
I was using Brett DeVall vs Casey Kelly. I stand corrected on the 84, that was DeVall.
Kelly has polish, father was a MLer. He’ll be a MLer too as a pitcher. Like I’ve read, when he figures out a bat in his hands is a foreign object that doesn’t need to be there, he’ll make his move to the Majors.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Oct 4, 2009 2:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That Kelly MPH Reading
comes from my seeing him in person. There’s NO WAY he throws 94 MPH at this point.
He was sitting 88 when I watched him pitch. It was free and easy, so I can see him working in the 90 MPH range, but 94 is a crack pipe reading.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:48 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Velocities tend to vary from start to start
It is hardly inconceivable that he sat 88 in one start and sat 90-91, hitting 94 on occasion, in another.
by aCone419 on Oct 5, 2009 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Futures Game
Kelly’s max FB in the futures game was 93.9.
by jibs on Oct 5, 2009 10:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was 1 inning, though.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 5, 2009 8:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
heh
“That makes no sense, given their respective strikeout numbers.”
Only true if velocity were the only thing behind strikeout totals. It isn’t.
The thing that I find pretty interesting is that while BA can be inaccurate with velocity figures, I really can’t think of too many situations at all where they lowballed the guy’s velocity. Inaccuracies almost always stem from BA OVER-estimating the guy’s velocity.
So. Are you really sure that BA has that wrong? They really do talk to people around the league, people who have seen him during the course of an entire season.
by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2009 9:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know that,
but Kelly has good secondary stuff and Lyles doesn’t.
If those velo citings were true, then their strikeout numbers would make no sense.
Clearly, Lyles is bringing it, while Kelly is throwing cream puffs with solid movement, I suppose.
Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.
by Frederick0220 on Oct 2, 2009 9:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good stuff doesn't have to mean strikeouts...
if you look at Rick Porcello’s numbers throughout his career, he never had high strikeout rates despite his outstanding stuff. I could be that Boston asked him to focus more on doing a certain thing, like getting groundballs.
by joegonzo on Oct 2, 2009 10:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You are assuming way too much here
A player who has not devoted himself to pitching full time can have great stuff that doesn’t immediately translate to Ks. And that is just one of many potential explanations. I see nothing outlandish about the reporting re: Lyles v. Kelly.
Frankly, people here should read these reports with more of an open mind. What do you gain by saying “this is BS, just look at the stats”?
by aCone419 on Oct 2, 2009 10:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
not at all
You also make the assumption that overall stuff = strikeouts. It doesn’t.
Command of individual pitches, deception (especially important at lower levels), mechanical effectiveness, and luck all make contributions.
Lyles isn’t necessarily “bringing it”. He may well be sitting 88-91 with occasional touches of higher velocities. His secondary pitches have reportedly improved although they aren’t spectacular. He gets a lot of praise for his command (obviously this shows up in his numbers). Solid pitches with good command can show up in big-time lower level numbers.
Personally I wasn’t really big on Lyles last year, you can find the evidence of that I’m sure. My view of him has improved but I still think he looks more like a quality innings eater type in the long-run than a frontline guy. Higher levels are going to reveal a lot about just what kind of pitcher he stands to be.
by mrkupe on Oct 2, 2009 10:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Lyles...
Has room left for some serious projection. He was drafted as a polished guy with velo upside. I don’t think that has changed. I would take him at #3 right now over Moore based on command. Moore’s walk totals have me wondering if he’s going to crash and burn at higher levels.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:49 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow
You do realize that throwing really hard isn’t the only way to strike people out, right?
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
by hero66 on Oct 3, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's true, however as a very basic indiciator Velocity
has shown to be an indicator of whether you can have success at the MLB level.
Kevin Goldstein had an article about this on BP recently
Here is a link thought it may be behind the subscriber wall.
However, players with good changeups and/or breaking balls tend to get a lot of K’s on it as well…. but yes there are many ways to K a batter…. throwing hard def. helps a lot though.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
or follow me on twitter
by jbluestone on Oct 3, 2009 7:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great Goldstein Article
One of my favorites this year.
However, when you look at MLB pitchers, the best get hitters to swing and miss at fastballs about 16% of the time if I remember correctly. A good breaking ball is near 40%. The fastball keeps hitters off balance so the breaking ball can punch them out.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Melky Mesa?
No Chase d’Arnaud but Greg Halman wannabe Melky Mesa makes it? Don’t the yankees have enough guys named Melky already? He’s 22 and struck out 33%+ in A-ball. Nice ISOs.
by wobatus on Oct 2, 2009 4:18 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
In the chat, Forman explained Mesa’s inclusion by saying that managers around the league loved him, and he has four legitimate tools. To me, it seems like a token ranking, like those who had Brackman at #100 on their Top 100 last year.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 2, 2009 4:20 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
naturally
From his numbers you can see he has power and speed, probably looks good in a uniform. I would bet that guy never makes it and Chase d’Arnaud becomes at least a utility guy.
by wobatus on Oct 2, 2009 4:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, a real tools guy
Thing is, at that level, a tools guy who is in his 6th pro season and hits .225 isn’t really that much of a prospect. I think experience shows that stats and peripheral ratios really do matter for hitters as much as tools, even in low A.
On the other hand, the most useful stat for pitchers at lower levels is usually the one that comes off the radar gun. I personally would have gone with one of those big raw 19 year old power pitchers, like Wilmer Font, Randall Delgado, T.J House, or Jeurys Familia.
by acerimusdux on Oct 3, 2009 12:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Mesa BLOWS!
BA lost me here. Mesa can’t hit off-speed stuff. Read he’s in his 6th year of pro ball and swings out of his shoes. There you go BA, you got your Yankee in your list.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Oct 3, 2009 2:42 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
yup
Not like there’s another Yankee at #9 or anything.
http://www.theyankeeuniverse.com
by lemonjello on Oct 4, 2009 2:26 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Like Mesa, but top 20 is a farce
I watched him a handful of times and he makes a great first impression. The more you see him, the more you realize he has more holes in his swing than swiss cheese.
If he was 18-19, we would be talking about a Halman type. At 22, I’m rolling my eyes.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
100% agreed. BA isn’t sure d’Arnaud will stick at shortstop, but even if he doesn’t, he’s got a decent enough shot to be a solid second baseman, and I’d be shocked if he didn’t pan out at least as a utility guy. I like him a lot more than Mesa.
by PhillyFriar on Oct 2, 2009 4:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Flores and Beckham are too high for me
Beckham would sit outside the top 5 but a lock for top 10. Flores almost does not belong this list for me after his poor season to say the least. Melky Mesa’s inclusion is definetly questionable for me, his numbers are far from impressive besides reflecting his power and speed tools. Rudy Owens is an interesting pick considering he does not have the greatest pedigree but had a great season statistically. Federowicz is too high, his position should be on the extremities of this list rather than at 14.
They really missed out by excluding Delgado as said further up in the post. Barnese is another interesting exclusion though he would be near the bottom if he made it. His repetoire should put him on despite having not pitching that many innings.
by tdot mariner fan on Oct 2, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Barnese was #16
Vroom vroom party starter
www.raysprospects.com
by Imperialism32 on Oct 2, 2009 4:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Flores heated up as the season went by
Which puts him on the list by default, considering his age, position, and power potential.
"I dunno. I never smoked any Astroturf"
-Tug McGraw
by squid92 on Oct 2, 2009 11:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Beckham gets mentioned only because he was the #1 overall!
He hasn’t shown he’s a #1 at all. HS pick or not, he’s not all the next coming of GOD! Yet, because of his draft slot, we’ll keep seeing his name on lists.
Billy Chapel: "I can always tell when I'm in New York."
by LoveofTheGame on Oct 3, 2009 2:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He still has a lot of potential
And he did put up pretty good numbers. Just nothing phenomenal.
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by Brickhaus on Oct 3, 2009 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He put up decent numbers for a prep SS
but nothing to warrant his ranking in my opinion. He has a good scouting profile, but his peripherals are not encouraging 40/110 ish K/BB. Also, you cannot count on a prep SS in A ball from sticking at there as/if he fills out physcially. He is still top 10, but others such as Delgado, Mitchell, and Carter deserve to be above him. If you went on ARL, holding your own in the league, and pedigree alone, Xavier Avery should be easily in the bottom half. However, preformance is important though at lower levels it is not a major factor.
by tdot mariner fan on Oct 4, 2009 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
By the way
MILB splits has Beckhams defense at -19/150 for what it is worth.
by tdot mariner fan on Oct 4, 2009 2:38 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Beckham fills out?
He already has. With his huge lower half, I’m not sure he can stick at SS. He looks like a tweener to me.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
One guy who should be on is...
Starling Marte. Absolutely tore the cover off the ball and has more potential than most on this list. He has plus speed, power potential, defense, arm, and contact ability.
by joegonzo on Oct 2, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
+1
I was looking forward to this league write up and where marte would rank. I was fairly surprised he was not in the top 10, let alone the top 20.
by FRANCHISEv2 on Oct 2, 2009 6:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Numbers look pretty good
but he’s 2 years older than a lot of prep OF’s who weren’t bad either. I’m not sure I can rank him above Avery or Austin when both were playing their 18-year old seasons.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He has the tools...
to be ranked ahead of them. Also, considering this was only his first year in the US, he should not have been as developed as he has been.
by joegonzo on Oct 4, 2009 12:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Four Rome Braves
R. Delgado, D. Delgado, Spruill and Hoover should have at least been considered!
by Jay212033 on Oct 2, 2009 5:51 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
They didn't include a lot of players...
Delgado, Marte, Rizzo, Chase D’arnaud, and Font. Melky Mesa has no business being on this list. I also think Rudy Owens was too low. I have read that he sat low 90s touching 94 with the best change up in the league and he’s a lefty.
by joegonzo on Oct 2, 2009 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Too Low?
Seriously? I’m pleasantly surprised that he even made this list. The SAL was loaded with talent this year. I see 10 guys on that list who would probably make my top 100 (Perez, Kelly, Moore, Norris, Beckham, Lyles, Knapp, Mitchell, Flores and d’Arnaud). Rudy Owens at 11 in the SAL is very high praise.
by jar75 on Oct 2, 2009 7:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would take him over...
Mitchell, D’arnaud, Knapp(he would be higher if it weren’t for injury), and Beckham(SO overrated). A lefty who has amazing control of a low 90s fastball to go along with an amazing change-up is pretty good. I believe he has number 2 starter potential.
by joegonzo on Oct 2, 2009 9:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
You need to actually pay attention to players...
and stop acting like you know everything. Watch some videos and read some scouting reports on players before you say anything. Watching players in person won’t even get a scout half of what he needs to know to tell how they play.
by joegonzo on Oct 4, 2009 12:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
actually at this low of a level...
scouting is the most important by a decent margin
baseball rules.
by doublestix on Oct 4, 2009 3:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't the ScoutingtheSally guy a scout?
I’m confused here. First you say he needs to scout these players, then the next sentence says scouting them doesn’t tell you anything.
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by hero66 on Oct 4, 2009 5:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Are you serious?
Once I edit the 80 or so videos I recorded in person, you will be the guy trying to break down the videos I took. Then, you will read my scouting reports on a bunch of these guys and act like you know.
What you will learn if/when you start watching a bunch of these guys is that the scouting reports you read Online are usually game reports on steroids. Not a single pitcher I saw this season had a truly accurate velo reading compared to what I read when researching players prior to seeing them play. Fastballs were ALL 2-3 MPH more than what I saw with my own two eyes. That’s why I take so much pride in what I write. I ONLY report velo readings and information I see in person. If I don’t see them, I don’t do full write ups. PERIOD.
Back to Marte….
In a few days, Starling Marte will be 21. His line was .312/.377/.439 with a ridiculous BABIP of .405.
Let’s look at a few others….
Robbie Grossman, 20 yrs, 1 mo. with a line of .266/.373/.355 with another ridiculous BABIP. Was he as good, no, but at a full year younger, he doesn’t have to be.
Xavier Avery, 19 yrs, 9 mo. with a line of .262/.306/.340. He’s even further behind, but he can repeat the Sally and still not be as old as Marte is right now.
Jay Austin, 19 yrs, 2 mo. with a line of .267/.320/.360. Marte has him by just about two years meaning Austin can repeat the Sally TWICE and be a little more than a month older than Marte is now.
Were his 2009 totals the best of the three…sure. However, acting like he was such a sure thing is blatant “homer”. Now I didn’t see Starling Marte in person, but did speak to somebody in the Gnats organization about their game plan for W.V. hitters and Sanchez was the only guy the staff really worried about.
Mike Newman
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by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Regarding Rizzo
“Brett (The ILL): What was said about Anthony Rizzo? I have to say I’m shocked he didn’t make the list.
Matt Forman: Rizzo’s name definitely came up in talking to managers and scouts about the league. He has a classic lefthanded swing, though he doesn’t always pull the ball. Rizzo prefers to work the center of the field and go pole-to-pole. He has power in his bat, though he doesn’t always try to muscle the ball. His barrel stays in the zone a long time, though that means his swing tends to get long at times. He’s a plus defender, and I even had some people tell me that he could play above-average first base in the bigs right now. Rizzo has good glovework and footwork around the bag. The biggest thing managers commented on was his body he did a great job of getting into shape after chemotherapy, and one manager said he’s shaped like an NFL tight end. If you’re asking me in the long run, I would take Rizzo over Lars Anderson, but that’s just a personal preference. The knock on him is that he really needs to turn on pitches better and drive the ball. He’s a solid all-around player. "
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by Kenan and Kel on Oct 2, 2009 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was me.
I’m a big fan of Rizzo, and the fact that the only real knock on a 19(at the time) year old in the SAL League, who had only 27 games of pro experience due to a cancer diagnosis and the treatment of the cancer, yet still put up the numbers he did, is that he needs to turn on more pitches, is a very good sign. He’ll gain more experience and mature as a hitter, the power will come. He can obviously hit, and he’s clearly a big, strong guy, so it’s there. I think his reasonable ceiling, both offensively and defensively, is Adrian Gonzalez, who didn’t post a .500 SLG% until he was 23 and in the PCL.
"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"
by Brett Keith on Oct 3, 2009 3:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I liked Rizzo a lot
He should be top 20, and is very underrated. I compared him with Freeman on my blog (who is getting TONS of hype) and Rizzo definitely holds his own in comparison. That write up made him sound like an all star caliber first baseman. I didn’t see enough pop for me to go that far at this point.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:02 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Terrible comparison...
Freeman is more of a free swinger than Rizzo. They are two completely different types of first baseman.
by joegonzo on Oct 4, 2009 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Except for the fact that they’re both left handed batting 1B who are very close to being the the same size and age there is NOTHING to warrant an article comparing the two players.
by jibs on Oct 4, 2009 1:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks Jibs
joegonzo is just angry numbers 1-20 are not Pirates prospects.
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by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
joegonzo...
Have you watched both players with your own two eyes? I’ve seen both play multiple games in person.
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by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
The write up makes him sound like...
A bigger Mark Grace. I think eventually Rizzo will hit 20+ HR a season, with, as I said, Adrian Gonzalez as the reasonable ceiling.
"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"
by Brett Keith on Oct 4, 2009 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, A-Gon?
40 HR guy? in seeing Logan Morrison a couple of times towards the end of the season, the ball comes off of Rizzo’s bat similarly. Morrison’s power ceiling seems to be in the 15-20 range. I think the Red Sox would be thrilled if he wound up being a .300 guy with 30+ 2B and 20+ HR.
Mike Newman
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by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
I think that’s his reasonable CEILING, not the likely outcome. Both are lefty 1B, similar in size, Gonzalez is a Gold Glove caliber defender, Rizzo gets glowing reports on his defense. Gonzalez was a good hitter with an advanced approach coming up, Rizzo seems to be similar. Gonzalez had questions about how much power he’d eventually have and was seen as more of a “pure hitter” coming up, Rizzo seems similar in that way too. Both had similar production in Low-A at 19. Then, out of the strange coincidence category, Gonzalez played his 20 year old season in AA Portland of the Eastern League, and Rizzo, with his success in the Carolina league, is poised to spend a good chunk, if not all, of his 20 year old season at Portland of the AA Eastern League. Also, Gonzalez didn’t post a .500+ SLG% till he was 23 and in the PCL.
"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"
by Brett Keith on Oct 5, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Interesting, very interesting.
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by Frederick0220 on Oct 5, 2009 1:25 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
D. Delgado...
is purely a numbers guy. Sits 85-88mph and can maybe muscle it up to 90 once a game. His curveball is slow and loopy. Without tightening it up, it’s just not going to fool advanced hitters, and they’ll be able to sit on the fastball. He barely ever throws his changeup and has a decent feel for it, so if he gets more comfortable with it I could see him settling in as a back-end starter. He’s not entirely without projection, but there are a ton of guys with his profile floating around the minors. I’m not surprised he got zero consideration for this list.
If you combined Dimaster Delgado’s numbers with Randall Delgado’s stuff, you’d have a top-10 prospect. Unfortunately, Randall’s the only real prospect of the two.
by slamcactus on Oct 2, 2009 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't like Dimaster much
Very so-so….a product of being able to control breaking pitches against less polished hitters. He should get exposed at higher levels.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Randall Delgado..
was considered. Forman said he was the last player cut from the top 20. I think he should have been on it personally, but it’s not like they just forgot about him.
by slamcactus on Oct 2, 2009 6:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As an Astros fan
I have to be a little disappointed not to find Ross Seaton on this list. Not that I think he deserves to be, I think BA got it right in that regard. What I am saying is: after signing him for above slot and BA ranking him 3rd last offseason, it would have been a big plus for him to come right out of the gate in his full season. He did not. His K/9 was poor. I’m a little nervous about what happens to him next season too, his two options are AA (and he’s not ready — Jordan Lyles will start in the Texas League, watch) or high A Lancaster, LANCASTER!!! Ugh.
I’m a little confused about Lyles being 6th — and behind Beckham and Norris, come on — they had him top 50 earlier this summer. I heard his command is good, his secondary stuff is improving and that his fastball is hotter than 89-91.
by byronlhsdrmr on Oct 3, 2009 12:36 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
rankings
“they had him top 50 earlier this summer.”
Okay. I guess you’d have a legitimate grievance if one/some of the five guys in front of him were unlike to be in the top 50.
Perez
Kelly
Moore
Norris
Beckham
Which of those five aren’t going to be in the BA top 50? I’d be at least somewhat surprised if they’re not on that list by No. 35 or so. The minors are pretty stacked towards the lower levels at the moment . . .
by mrkupe on Oct 3, 2009 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If Beckham makes the Top 100, it's still a joke! He wasn't a #1 overall!
I didn’t like this pick and he still hasn’t shown he deserved it. But there you go. Ride the wave of Tim Beckham!
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by LoveofTheGame on Oct 3, 2009 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
um, okay
Notice I said “the BA top 50”. I didn’t say anything about my own personal opinion, so I’m a little bewildered when you act like I have the guy’s name tattooed on the back of my ass. :)
Personally I think he gets a bit of a bum rap. He never really fit the profile of a No. 1 overall pick, but I don’t think you would have found too many teams around MLB that didn’t have him rated in the upper half of the first round (and given the huge but unspoken variability that MLB teams have, that’s saying a lot). His performance this year wasn’t all that hot, but it wasn’t horrid either given the context (19 year old in first full season ball campaign). I think he’s still probably a middle infielder and a pretty decent one in the long run. Not a star but with numbers he can build on and a set of decent tools across the board, he should be a useful player at a premium position.
In other words: even if you think BA is hyping him too much (and they likely are), the hype isn’t THAT bad. He’ll still be a top 100-type prospect for even his detractors.
by mrkupe on Oct 3, 2009 3:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
So maybe it looks more like he'll be Todd Walker than Barry Larkin
A Todd Walker future is still worthy of a top 50 spot. If he actually lived up to potential so far, he’d be in the top 10, not the top 50.
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by Brickhaus on Oct 3, 2009 10:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn't love Seaton
Very so so. 86-90 FB without a biting breaking pitch. If I had to rank the pitchers I’ve seen, he wouldn’t be in the top 10 and I missed a few guys when they came through.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:05 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As an Astros fan
Have faith in Jay Austin. He was the best player on the field the night I watched him play. He really held his own this season as an 18-year old.
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by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carter too low?
How about Dexter Carter being on the list is a surprise!
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by LoveofTheGame on Oct 3, 2009 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
why?
solid stuff (low-mid 90’s fb with movement), a solid curveball, and a developing change. Good projection with his frame. Haven’t heard any serious mechanical issues after they tinkered with it once he got to the pros. oh, excellent year too at kannapolis, with good numbers and peripherals. So … why’s it a surprise?
I think it’s time folks let go of Carter’s final year at ODU. That’s in the past now. This isn’t to say he’ll succeed, but I don’t get why it’s a surprise he made the list. i think i agree with alskor in that there might be a case for putting him higher, particularly since his change made such big strides this year. Excellent arm for the Padres to build towards, the one arm I really loved in that deal, moreso than Richard or Poreda.
by toonsterwu on Oct 3, 2009 3:44 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
if it wasn't mechanical issues, i'd like to know what happened to him after he was traded.
by larry on Oct 3, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i don't know what happened in the 20 or so innings
after he was dealt to the MWL, but I haven’t heard it being any serious issue that can’t be fixed. What I was referencing were the reports when he was drafted, which, IIRC, basically said his mechanics and delivery were a mess. I remember BA posted a blurb early this year about how the White Sox spent time tinkering and fix it, and I don’t remember any subsequent report saying that he had serious mechanical flaws, although I can’t say I paid a ton of attention to Dexter Carter this year.
by toonsterwu on Oct 4, 2009 1:18 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carter was ok
Another guy who was more a product of a great CB than solid all-around stuff. He tossed his warm up ball to my son, so my family has a rooting interest, but he was not top 20 IMO based on his age and seeing him pitch in person.
If you said…
Kyle Allen vs. Dex I would choose Allen
Jeurys Familia vs. Dex I would choose Familia
Stolmy Pimentel vs. Dex I would choose Pimentel
Pimentel/Carter are actually pretty similar in terms of repertoire right now only Carter is THREE years older. That makes it not even close IMO.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ooc
since you watch the sally much more, i am curious … are the reports on Carter’s fb off? I’ve seen it listed as anywhere from low-mid 90’s, but the way you make it sound in your comment makes me wonder if those reports are off. just curious.
by toonsterwu on Oct 4, 2009 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Carter's FB
The evening I watched him pitch, he threw 8 scoreless so he obviously had his best stuff. He was between 88-90 the entire night topping at 92 once or twice. The curve is really nasty…maybe the best I’ve seen this year, but he lets up on the change and really needs a third pitch to not become a two-pitch RP. I really thought the ball would explode out of his hand, but it didn’t. He did not incorporate his legs into his pitches well.
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by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Jeurys needs love
As does Kyle Allen.
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by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
i know what you were referencing.
when you walk 32 in 120 IP and then walk 15 in 20 IP, i wonder what happened.
by larry on Oct 4, 2009 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Adam Milligan
How about Adam Mlligan? He destroyed Sally League pitching!
by Stephen in the UAE on Oct 3, 2009 3:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Very disappointing
Ball jumps off of his bat (if and when) he hits it. I didn’t like the contact tool. He struck out half of the at bats I saw him. I’m not sure he can catch up to a good fastball unless it’s a mistake.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Forman spoke to the fact that a lot of people like Milligan’s hit tool, but they aren’t sure if it will translate at the next level. I wasn’ sure if he would make the list or not, but I can’t believe Spruill or R. Delgado didn’t make it.
by yondaime4 on Oct 4, 2009 1:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
As somebody who has seen a lot of these guys in person....
The list was surprising enough for me to write a two-part piece about it which will post on my blog Monday and Tuesday.
There are a handful of guys who were omitted who definitely should have been included. The list makes me seriously wonder about the credibility of the other league lists.
by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 7:28 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Interesting list
you’re not a Yankee fan, are you?
by METSMETSMETS on Oct 4, 2009 3:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Speaking of B.A. and Yankee Love
On the night I watched Andrew Brackman, B.A. also wrote up the start.
B.A. had Brackman at 92-95 throughout. The gun I was watching had him 88-92, hitting 93 once.
Additionally, Elvin Ramirez of the Mets topped out at 94 MPH. If I was downgrading Brackman’s FB by 3 MPH, then Elvin Ramirez would have hit 97 MPH. Do you think Ramirez would be in the Mets top 40 prospects or so at that velo?
Things that make you go hmmmmmmm.
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by ScoutingTheSally on Oct 4, 2009 8:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BA really loves embellishing Yankees and Red Sox pitchers' velos
Casey Kelly: 90-94 mph
Can someone find me the article/link where BA said that Phil Hughes could touch 97 on the gun?
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by Frederick0220 on Oct 4, 2009 11:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's flirted with 97ish
Granted, it’s as a reliever. But I’m betting he hit it a few times in the minors.
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by Imperialism32 on Oct 4, 2009 11:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's a BA list
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by squid92 on Oct 5, 2009 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eric Surkamp
Was the highest rated on my list that wasn’t included.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
by garrioch13 on Oct 4, 2009 11:20 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
just curious.. where did you rank Surkamp?
by Wonderful Terrific Monds on Oct 5, 2009 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Randall Delgado as a just-miss just doesn’t make much sense. He was just 19, and had a 3.55 FIP and over 10 K/9 despite a so-so ERA. Also he finished really strong. He was one of the best starters in the league from the middle of July on. As a Braves fan I wasn’t totally surprised to see Spruill not make it (though apparently if you ask projectprospect he’s a top-25 arm), but BA snubbed Delgado big-time. Very under-rated prospect IMO.
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A: Because the Braves don't want to show their fans how bad you suck.
by timmy3 on Oct 5, 2009 12:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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