Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects for 2010
by John Sickels on Oct 19, 2009 2:06 PM EDT
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Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospects for 2010.
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don't get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get beyond the Top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you want to emphasize.
Feel free to critique the list, but use logic and reason rather than polemics to do so. The list and grades are based on a blending of present performance and long-term potential. Full reports on all these players can be found in the 2010 Baseball Prospect Book. We are now taking pre-orders for the book. Order early and order often!
1) Aaron Hicks, OF, Grade B+: Excellent tools, numbers are better than they look on the surface. I think he'll break out in 2010.
2) Ben Revere, OF, Grade B: Kenny Lofton ceiling, Juan Pierre midpoint, Joey Gathright basement.
3) Kyle Gibson, RHP, Grade B-: Would be a Grade B+ at least if not for the injury concern.
4) Wilson Ramos, C, Grade B-: Power and defense are positives, main question is weak walk rate.
5) Adrian Salcedo, RHP, Grade B-: Best of the pitchability right-handers in a system full of them.
6) Billy Bullock, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+; great stuff but will he throw strikes?
7) Angel Morales, OF, Grade C+: Could make a case for B-. Very good tools, numbers are better than they look on the surface, needs to improve discipline.
8) Danny Valencia, 3B, Grade C+: Needs to improve strike zone judgment and glovework to get a job in 2010.
9) Chris Parmalee, OF-1B, Grade C+: Lotsa power, draws walks, other skills are unimpressive.
10) Miguel Sano, SS, Grade C+: I really have no idea how to rank him at this point. Might turn into Miguel Cabrera, could fizzle in A-ball, no way to know yet.
11) Carlos Gutierrez, RHP, Grade C+: Ground ball machine. Could rank as high as seventh.
12) Joe Benson, OF, Grade C+: Excellent tools and is showing signs of skill development. Could also rank as high as seventh.
13) David Bromberg, RHP, Grade C+: Classic Twins pitching prospect, relies on pitchability rather than pure stuff.
14) B.J. Hermsen, RHP, Grade C+: Great rookie ball performance, projectable, need data from higher levels.
15) Ben Tootle, RHP, Grade C+: High-ceiling arm, needs to improve command.
16) Anthony Slama, RHP, Grade C+: Deceptive delivery with high strikeout rates, tough on right-handed hitters, could slot into middle relief role in 2010.
17) Matt Bashore, LHP, Grade C+: Could rank higher if he stays healthy.
18) Tom Stuifbergen, RHP, Grade C+: Could be a Grade C. Another pitchability guy. Gets lots of grounders.
19) Jeff Manship, RHP, Grade C: Possible fifth starter or long relief type.
20) Tyler Robertson, LHP, Grade C: Stock has dropped a lot, but looks like a potential LOOGY to me.
OTHERS (all Grade C right now): Oswaldo Arcia, OF; Alex Burnett, RHP; Rob Delaney, RHP; Estarlin De los Santos, SS; Deolis Guerra, RHP; Chris Herrmann, OF; Steve Hirschfeld, RHP; Luke Hughes, INF; Max Kepler-Rozycki, OF; Bobby Lanigan, RHP; Andrei Lobanov, LHP; Jose Lugo, LHP; Derek McCallum, 2B: Mike McCardell, RHP; Josmil Pinto, C-DH; Trevor Plouffe, SS; Tobias Streich, C; Brad Tippett, RHP; Mike Tonkin, RHP; Rene Tosoni, OF; Loek Van Mil, RHP, Blayne Weller, RHP.
There were about 10 other guys I considered but cut due to space reasons. I can't write about everyone. The Twins system is thin at the top, but they have a huge number of Grade C prospects with potential upside. Grades for several guys could be much higher once we have 2010 data. The signings of Sano and Kepler-Rozycki show an increased emphasis on high-ceiling players from the international market, though due to their youth and lack of pro data I'm going with conservative grades right now. I like the organization's interest in European players like MKR, Lobanov, and the Dutch pitchers.
Pitchability is obviously very important in this organization, and recent hitting draftees such as Parmalee, Hicks and Revere show awareness of strike zone judgment as well.
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Sano
I like the cautious ranking of Sano. I just don’t think you can give him any grade higher than C+
-1
I think he has got to be 5th. If you could have only add one guy to your farm system you would take Chris Parmalee over him! The Twins didn’t give 3 million for a guy they though was less of a prospect than Chris Parmalee.
He's a complete lottery ticket
His entire prospect status is based on projection and batting practice sessions. The amount of money he was paid is irrelevant here because he was eligible to sign with any team. The fact that he’s only worth $3M on the open market should tell you something about the likelihood of him panning out. It was a good gamble for the Twins because a $3M investment is insignificant, but the odds of him never making it out of the minors are very high.
This isn’t to say that he doesn’t have a high ceiling (because he does), merely that using some restraint is advised when ranking 16/17 year olds who have limited baseball experience.
Only worth 3 million on the open market?
How many latin amateurs have gotten 3 million? Aside from Sano, two! I understand that there is a lot of risk with Sano. I’m not advocating that he be given an B+ or an A- rating. What I am saying is that one of the highest rated latin prospects ever should rated higher than a fringy prospects like Morales and Parmalee.
Indeed, there’s a reason why they don’t get more than that. I absolutely would rather have Morales. I’m not a big Parmelee fan, but I would rather bet on him making the majors if I had to choose one.
What makes Sano better than Gary Sanchez or Guillermo Pimentel?
Assuming that the free market is operating at least semi-rationally,
the reason that Latin amateurs haven’t gotten more money than that is simply that they SHOULDN’T be rated higher than those guys.
It’s not like these bonus babies are routinely going out there and dominating the opposition. They’re even more of a crapshoot than draft picks…
Linda's in the cold ground, won't see her anymore
Somewhere out on the highway tonight, the drunken engines roar
It's just one of those things, one of those things
-- Al Stewart, "Accident on 3rd St."
In memory of Nick Adenhart and all victims of drunk driving
Trevor Plouffe?
You have him listed as an OTHER, but wasn’t he traded to the A’s for Orlando Cabrera?
Salcedo
Surprised he was ranked so high, given that he has no experience above GCL. I figured he would get conservatively graded and lumped in the vicinity of Sano and Hermsen (ahead of Hermsen of course).
Twins fans got to love all that potential.
salcedo
Yeah….it’s a fairly aggressive grade for a GCL guy but I like him.
by John Sickels on Oct 19, 2009 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Salcedo
will definitely be in my top 10. Like John said, he’s got the best mix of great control and stuff that is nasty in the oranization.
I Rated Him At 5 As Well
Actually very close to my list, minus Bromberg. Why’s he so low?
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A Dear John Letter
Duensing and Swarzak.
Yes, yes, I know they had too many innings to make the list but I would still like to know what kind of grade they would get since I’m prepping for my all-important DMB League draft.
I know John has to have a cut-off point but it would be nice if he could cover all 1st year players (in MLB) since a lot of sim leagues and fantasy leagues have that as the draft point. I know this site is for learning and sharing about prospects, but truth be told, many readers come here to prepare for their drafts. Giving all 1st years grades would increase readership and bring in more ad revenue for John and ultimately sell more books.
Even just quick grades would be nice without a write-up. Using the example of Duensing… He was a C in John’s last book but the guy pitched well in 84 innings and even looked solid vs. the Yankees in the playoffs. Is he a C that pitched way beyond his capabilities or is he now a B type pitcher that could have a successful career? Or is he a B+ like his Twins stats would indicate?
I know this creates more work for John, but I think it would increase hits to his site and it’s all within the realm of prospecting. To me, Duensing is still a young baseball player who is an unknown quantity and in many readers mind, a prospect.
Just my 2 cents as a long-time reader of this site.
marginal
I think both Swarzak and Duensing are fifth starter types, potentially average major league pitchers. Not a lot seperates them from Manship in my opinion other that they are beyond the innings limit for the book.
by John Sickels on Oct 19, 2009 2:49 PM EDT up reply actions
Yeah, I agree with John
Brian Duensing pitched like a #3 starter this year
but in all reality he was a C to maybe a C+ prospect all along coming up through the Twins system from the U of Nebraska Lincoln.
I say Duensing is a classic #5 starter
and Swarzak a #5 with a chance to be a #4 in the American League.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2009 5:08 PM EDT up reply actions
looks good at
first glance. I think some of those C+ guys should be C’s, but I also think a couple of them should be B-’s (namely, Bromberg).
Valencia
I thought he played 3rd, not outfield.
I am beginning to lose patience
With my personal relations.
They are not deep
And they are not cheap.
W.H. Auden
by jimduquettesucked on Oct 19, 2009 3:25 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
My nits
I have Ramos as a B+/B guy. Terrific defense and arm, has demonstrated a really knack at getting hits, decent power. The walks are worrisome, as are the health pings.
I think Bromberg is a B-, and Sano as well.
I’ll take Gibson as a straight B as well. I’m not terribly impressed by Revere; I see him as a non-prime Juan Pierre.
Ramos
I can see him as high as #2 and I’d put him as an A-/B+ type. I really think he’s got a chance. He just has to stay healthy.
I agree with al those.
especially Revere. I also have Parmelee a little higher, but that is b/c I really like him.
No Shooter Hunt?
Just kidding. One guy who could be on the others list is Jorge Polanco, a solid SS out of D.R. I think he signed in the $750K range.
http://milbprospects.blogspot.com/
I don’t really understand what makes Ben Revere better than Joe Benson…or for that matter, Michael Brantley..No power speedy CF’s are really a dime a dozen. Benson’s got more than that, IMO.
I’d have Bromberg much higher, too..I think my top 4 would be Hicks, Bromberg, Gibson, Benson, though I know a very small amount about the Twins system outside of them.
interesting....
1 I’m surprised so many relievers are getting mention, and mention that highly in the rankings…
2. Also Rene Tosoni ? John- what do you make of him? you must only see him as a 4th or 5th OF’er ? … I think he could be a #3 guy
I like him at C+ and in the top 15 or so….
3. Grades altogether, I think a lot of poeple are 1/3 of a letter grade lower than I would have thought…. but Most of them are probably right on.
some ex:
Ramos B- to a B … Morales C+ to a B- …. Bromberg a C+ to a B- as well maybe?
all in all I take a LOT away from this list
+ Salcedo and Bullock
- on Daniel Rams and Rene Tosoni (I’m also lower on Ty Robertson and Steven Singleton now than I was before)
Interesting…. and awesome read, good job
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2009 5:05 PM EDT reply actions
+1 +1 -1 +1
Tosoni was a future games player who cruised thru the minors in a hard system to move quickly in, C+.
Ramos is doing well in winter ball already, you could keep him at B-, but I’d move him higher.
Morales should show more improvement before moving him higher that C+.
Bromberg is clearly a B- because he done very well at every level and puts up all the right numbers, but “stuff” may always keep him from reaching the B+ level.
My option is Tom Stuifbergen is a C guy and not top 20 stuff.
I’d also like to request a Matt Fox write up, I like rebound stories.
"I couldn't do that. Could you do that? Why can they do it? Who are those guys?"
Also I have 1 more point
SP Deolis Guerra should be in the top 20 IMO…
sure his peripherals and raw stats from 2009 don’t look all that great but if you consider what he did in AA at his age (20)
that has to impress you (at least is impresses me)
Also there were reports this year that Guerra picked back up some Velocity from 2008,
while he probably doesn’t have the Velo. he once did as a Met ’spect it is looking as if things are turning back around in the positive manner for Deolis again.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2009 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
Bert
No wonder they have an appetite for Dutch pitchers, just look at the example from the trading card at the top.
But John, if not for the injury concern
I doubt GIbson would’ve fallen to the Twins. So it’s a quid pro quo gamble you guys got going there…
You’re name has 2k9 in it — what are you some 8 year-old who makes Pillsbury Doughboy cookies and jerks off to that bullshit video game with Tim Lincecum on the cover--
Frederick0220
Bromberg
How can you call Bromberg a pitchability guy? You don’t lead the minors in k’s in 2008 and lead the FSL in k’s without good stuff. He’s actually got swing and miss stuff which is more thne I can say about anyone in the system.
Yusmeiro Petit disagrees with you
True, he didn’t lead the league in Ks (because he only made 9 starts), but he easily lead the FSL in K/9 (12.6) as a 19 year old in 2004.
scouting reports
scouting reports I have (and what I saw in the Midwest League in ’08) indicate average stuff in the sense of velocity and movement. But he changes speed so well that he has the component ratios of a power pitcher.
by John Sickels on Oct 20, 2009 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Josmil Pinto
I find it very suprising, given his stats this year, that Josmil Pinto couldn’t break the top 20. I realize he’s not much of a catcher but given the dearth of hitters in the organization I’d figure he’d be around 15.
Pinto
I’ve got some pretty negative reports about his defense, and not everyone believes in his bat despite the big numbers.
by John Sickels on Oct 20, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
I agree here
Josmil Pinto might be able to swing it…
but being a DH in Rookie Ball is not a good sign
he literally has no glove.
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 20, 2009 8:16 PM EDT up reply actions
quick question (still a noob)
What’s the ceiling/floor comp for Aaron Hicks? Also I never heard of Morales kind of intriguing considering he’s #7 here.
Draft guru in training.
granderson
Granderson is a good comp for Hicks. If his power really comes forward some people have made Strawberry/Eric Davis type comps. I don’t think he’ll be quite that good.
by John Sickels on Oct 20, 2009 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions
So aaron hicks
is either Curtis Granderson or Andrew McCutchen
I wonder what those 3 have in common.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 20, 2009 7:31 PM EDT up reply actions
they are all center fielders
obviously..
Ugggghhhh
Do people always need to make a ‘race’ accusation every time somebody compares a person to a player of the same race? If you don’t agree with McCutch or Grandy, who is a ‘white’ centrefielder you think his game resembles?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Oct 20, 2009 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions
Do I need to?
Nope but I felt like it.
Do you need to complain about someone else complaining? Nope but you felt like it too.
I don’t have any particular animosity towards these comps, I just think it’s funny that it happens without fail.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 20, 2009 8:18 PM EDT up reply actions
weak
if you’re going to pick an ideological argument, at least have the stones to follow up your point.
So Kenan and Kel is either Shirley Temple or Little Bo Peep. I wonder what those three have in common?
Which I'm not O_O
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 20, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
You think it's really a matter of lacking stones?
Please, first of all I wasn’t attempting to make an ideological argument,it was a point that I’ve seen made here before, and it was done so in jest.
Had I wanted to pick a fight I would have done so. Furthermore, there was no need to follow up my point, it was made quite clearly, even a bit misinterpreted, and I feel it would have pointless to continue hammering my opinion down your throats.
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 20, 2009 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Did I need to call it a lack of stones?
Nope but I felt like it.
Do you need to complain about someone else commenting on an apparent abeyance in your trousers? Nope but you felt like it too.
I don’t have any particular animosity towards your stones, I just think it’s funny that they disappeared.
My gosh that was offensive
Who loves orange soda?
by Kenan and Kel on Oct 20, 2009 11:10 PM EDT up reply actions
If you're looking for a white guy...
How about Andy Van Slyke as a ceiling comp for Hicks?
.285/.360/.460 average lines during ages 24-31, 15-20 homer with 25 HR peak, 20-25 SB with 30+ SB peak and GG defense.
Van Slyke was a damn good player in that pre-roids era of the late 80’s/early 90’s.
My guess is Hicks doesn’t have that kind of pop which might make him into more of a Brett Butler type leadoff hitter as a floor (Hicks’ walk rate is very good so far for his age) which is still obviously very useful.
by two fishsticks on Oct 21, 2009 8:12 AM EDT up reply actions
Nate McLouth
Randy Winn
Shane Victorino
Corey Hart
Carlos Beltran
These are some players I could see him turning out similar too, regardless of race.
by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 22, 2009 12:32 PM EDT up reply actions
Dexter Fowler
I could seriously see
maaaaybe Corey Hart
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 3, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
Not Bad
I think Morales and Valencia are pretty high on the list and am a little surprised to see Ladendorf left off.
I agree with 1 through 5 but after that there is a disagreement. I would put Sano at number 6. Its probably pretty likely that he will wind up being the teams #1 prospect at least on BA’s list going into next year.
I would have Bromber and Gutierrez in the top 10.
I don't think Ladendorf would have made top 20
anyway top 30-35? yeah
but not top 20…
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 3, 2009 10:26 PM EST up reply actions
Anthony Slama is a pretty cool name.
that is all.
In Minnesota, when 11,000 people are in the Dome, you feel like you are at an especially depressing demolition derby. -Joe Posnanski
and the future 8th inning guy for the Twins real soon
setup-man for Nathan
Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Nov 3, 2009 10:25 PM EST up reply actions
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