Hypothetical trade: Luke Scott for Willy Aybar

by StickRat on Oct 18, 2009 9:09 PM EDT

The last trade idea I posted didn't inspire a lot of conversation, and perhaps it didn't warrant much. Maybe the reason for this is the two players involved in that proposed trade are neither top prospects, nor are they well known. I realize it's difficult to assess fringe players. This was evident in a similar post from a year ago; a smackdown querry between Michael Aubrey and Travis Ishikawa. The memorable response from that one was something to the effect of: Neither of them are very good. Well, I suppose by a higher standard of prospecting, this is true of many of the guys I've posted about.

So I'm trying a different approach. Luke Scott and Willy Aybar are in interesting and similar situations. They each performed quite well in the '09 season. Each probably deserved more playing time than he received, but they were dealing with a lot of competition at their respective positions.

Now, the reason this is applicable to minor-league ball, and the grounds for my posting the subject at this site, is a straight-up deal for these two players could likely involve some lesser-known prospects. So in proposing this trade, I'm hoping not only to gauge the value of Scott and Aybar, but to inspire some conversation about prospects of value and interest who could conceivably be involved in such a trade. Also welcome is anyone wanting to propose such a trade involving either Scott or Aybar going to another team.

Tweet Comment 13 comments | 0 recs |

Do you like this story?

Comments

Their Batting averages were pretty close

by Marinerfanjake on Oct 18, 2009 11:02 PM EDT reply actions

I'm curious as to who people perceive to be the better player

Bad Left Hook - The SB Nation boxing blog
"Baseball is played on the field, not on a calculator."

by Brickhaus on Oct 19, 2009 1:03 AM EDT reply actions

If we believe their career UZRs, Scott is pretty clearly the better player on the field. A +8 LF has the same defensive value as a -2 3B, and I don’t think anyone doubts Scott is a significantly better hitter.

However, I don’t think Scott’s defense is really that good, so the on-the-field gap between the two probably isn’t that big.

When you factor in the fact that Aybar’s 5 years younger and has his next two arbitration years bought out at a low price, I think I’d probably rather have Aybar, although it’s an open question how well he’d adapt to full-time play.

by dkdc on Oct 19, 2009 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions

Real Life ?

you’re talkin Willy Aybar
strictly Fantasy purposes? -probably Luke Scott…

but I’d probably take Ayabar anyway because he plays a more premium position.

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 19, 2009 1:47 AM EDT reply actions

Leaving aside issues of

performance, tools and skills, or even age and cost, I am not sure why the Rays would be interested in Scott. He is a good ball player, but I do not see where he meshes with the Rays’ needs.

by bobr on Oct 19, 2009 8:34 AM EDT reply actions

yup

by rglass44 on Oct 19, 2009 8:56 AM EDT up reply actions

Uhh...

don’t the Rays have Matt Joyce rotting in the minors?

I’m not sure you could build a better (6 years younger) approximation of Luke Scott if you had the technology.

by PissedMick on Oct 19, 2009 4:16 PM EDT up reply actions

+10

by slickterp on Oct 19, 2009 11:38 AM EDT reply actions

I’m not sure this is a particularly great deal from either side, frankly. Luke Scott is a significantly better overall hitter, with minimal corner positional flexibility and is older, but I frankly don’t see that he offers a whole ton more than either Gabe Gross, Pat Burrell or Matt Joyce, nevermind Desmond Jennings, who is coming soon.

As for Aybar, I don’t think he’s very valuable, either. He is in essence a platoon bat v LHP and can play poor defense at 3B and 2B (slipped from last year’s decent performance). He controls the strike zone well but just doesn’t seem to have much. With that said, he’s a pretty solid backup utility guy assuming the Rays are willing to put up with his below average defense.

So, to echo what everyone else said, not sure I see the point here..

by WrenFGun on Oct 19, 2009 1:57 PM EDT reply actions

I think you are underestimating

Aybar a bit. Before 2009, Dave Cameron identified him as the best bench player in the majors (I think I am right about that) and had good reasons to do so. I haven’t looked at his 2009 defensive numbers although I think he declined somewhat, but his reputation is as a decent infielder.

Offensively, he has never had a full season worth of ABs, but when he has played regularly, he has produced. In 2008, he replaced an injured Longoria effectively for about a month, and had some good stretches in 2009 as well. He works pitchers well, is a decent contact hitter (which the Rays need) and has some power.

We cannot know yet whether he can produce enough as a regular, but we should not underestimate the value of solid reserves. Such players are very valuable, and as a switch hitter (with better stats against righties by the way) who can play 3 infield positions, his flexibility makes him even more valuable.

by bobr on Oct 19, 2009 2:24 PM EDT up reply actions

Aybar had a split below .700 v R. Combined with an only slightly better season in 2008, I don’t really think he’s very likely to be more than a platoon asset over time..

by WrenFGun on Oct 19, 2009 3:56 PM EDT reply actions

If he is a platoon asset,

then he is a very valuable player, especially if he is inexpensive. And he has really not had enough playing time to make any confident assertions about what he can become.

We may be nitpicking each other. I tend to value complementary players, not more than stars of course, but perhaps more than others do. In my view, someone like Aybar, or if we are sticking to the Rays, players like Gross and Kapler as well, deserve more credit than they often receive. The Rays in 2008 were successful at least in part because of the ability of reserves like Aybar, Gross, Hinske et al to fill in. And the Yankee problems in 2008 were partly due to their lack of adequate reserves.

by bobr on Oct 19, 2009 7:43 PM EDT up reply actions

Meh

I don’t like the trade for either side. Aybar is better as a reserve for TB. If he played for the O’s, they might be tempted to play him every day, which would probably be a mistake as his weaknesses would become all too-apparent. Meanwhile Scott is one of Baltimore’s better hitters, and as previously pointed out, not really any help to the Rays at all. So, they’re each better off right where they are.

(Still don’t see how this affects minorleagueball…)

The wind is in the buffalo.

by journeymen on Oct 20, 2009 11:24 AM EDT reply actions