Community Prospect Lists - Padres

by cwhitman412 on Oct 15, 2009 6:52 PM EDT Comment 56 comments

On to the NL West. This was probably one of my favorite sleeper systems going into the year. It did not disappoint at all. Top 10 system easily in my opinion. 130 AB, 50 IP limits

1. Jaff Decker

2. Simon Castro

3. Tate

4. Darnell

5. Eduardo Rincon

Other names are Forsythe, Galvez, Portillo, Poreda, Pelzer, and Carroll.

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At first run through, I'll go

1. Simon Castro – If I was truly, truly being honest with myself, Decker is probably more deserving. But I really, really like Castro, and while he will be 22 next year, he’s still a bit raw.

2. Jaff Decker – Sorry BA, you mucked up your list. Maybe Decker doesnt’ belong in the first spot, but he deserved to be much higher than BA put him. Okay, maybe I’m doing Jaff a disservice by putting him 2nd.

3. James Darnell – I really don’t like this, but he raked the ball, and Tate has too many questions that, until they are answered, I’m wary of putting him here.

4. Donovan Tate – Too talented to ignore.

5. Jonathan Galvez – I really wanted to put Kellen Kulbacki here, as I still believe Kulbacki can hit, but I’ll go with the raw Galvez for now, who seemed to show some promise this year, granted, in AZL.

I think the system has a lot of raw upside, and a lot of cup of tea guys. Reminds me a bit of where the Cubs system was last year. By next year, this could be a really enticing system. I do like guys like Sogard/Zawadzki/Canham to potentially have a shot to make some sort of role in the bigs (the former two, I could see them challenge for the 2nd base gig sooner than later, although 2011 is probably more likely). I also think they have some arms that can fill out the back end and the pen, but they really are banking a lot on raw arms like Castro to develop and become, along with Latos, and hopefully, Gallagher, guys that can carry that rotation. I’d say 2010 is more rebuilding, with 2011 an outside shot of pushing .500 depending on the budget, with 2012 probably the more realistic early target for trying to make a playoff push.

by toonsterwu on Oct 15, 2009 7:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Castro

I love him as well. This year he will become a household name. Bursting to double A, with tons of strikeouts. Easily a top 10 pitcher this time next year.

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by cwhitman412 on Oct 15, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i forgot about

dexter carter, who i really like. cwhit, for “voting” purposes, put me down for Carter as 5 and slide Galvez out.

by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2009 11:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Done.

by cwhitman412 on Oct 16, 2009 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oy

Galvez I at least see the argument, but I think there are more guys with significantly better stuff than Carter. Carter is a fringe top 10 guy, and really not close to top 5 for me. Just curious why you like him so much.

by thudean on Oct 16, 2009 2:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

assuming his late season control collapse isn't anything serious

and I haven’t heard anything as such, low 90’s fb that he can reach back and take up to the mid-90’s, a solid curveball (don’t think it’s plus), and an “improving” changeup (yeah, I know, improving usually means eh … that shows some promise). I like his frame, and again, assuming that nothing serious has happened to him mechanically or health wise, I think more time rounding things out and being more consistent will make him very intriguing and perhaps add a tiny bit of velo, perhaps enough to have him sit more, say, 92-94.

Is it a terribly intriguing profile? Probably not. Best case scenario is probably that he develops into a Sean Gallagher type arm that has 2/3 type potential (there are some similarities between those two, granted, one came in as a HS arm and the other as a college arm). That said, he’s coming off a, for the most part, solid year, and he seems a bit more polished than some of their really raw assets. It’s just a really raw system and I think Carter’s polish deserves a nod, and it’s not like he doesn’t have the stuff to potentially be somewhat intriguing.

by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2009 3:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

fine but...

Fine argument, and understandable. However, my feeling on Carter is that the lack of control immediately after the trade could be a reoccurrence of the lack of control that plagued him in college. That’s a big downer for me. Carter #1 (White Sox Version) must be doing something different than Carter #2 (Padres Version), and now you have to hope a new organization can set him right. Either that, or its an injury (bad), or mental (worse). To me, I don’t consider that to be a polish, but still very rough around the edges.

If you are looking for a “polished” guy:
Pelzer has the same quality stuff but lacks the same build.
McBryde has the same stuff, but also lacks some polish and has an injury (upsetting cause I liked him alot)
Hefner/Luebke – Not the same stuff, but definitely more polish.

My opinion is that there is nothing in Carter’s profile that really sets him apart from this other group of pitchers. To me, your argument suits you better if you are saying he’s a top 10 guy (which I can see). But I don’t see that argument playing out for a top 5 spot considering how good the Padres system is (which you yourself noted).

by thudean on Oct 16, 2009 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

just to be clear

I don’t think the system is good. I think the system has raw upside. Off the top, I don’t consider this, say, a top 10 system in baseball, and I’m not sure it’s a top 15 system. Everything comes down to who’s grading, but most of their talent is in the lower levels.

I will say this – if he has some sort of injury or something is messed up with his mechanics, then yes, he has no business being in a top 5. If not, though, I feel pretty comfortable with him there, but that’s half the fun with ratings.

by toonsterwu on Oct 17, 2009 12:43 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think it’s easily a top 15 system. They may have more raw prospects than the average team, but they have a ton of them. The 2009 draft brought in some very good pieces (and I’m not even a big Tate fan). It doesn’t have the top prospect that puts them in the top 10, but this is one of the most impressive systems that I’ve ranked during this process.

by jar75 on Oct 17, 2009 11:27 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i guess

everything comes down to who is ranking it, and that’s the beauty of rankings in some respects. Granted, I’d have to see the lists next to each other to really know.

i really like the talent in the system, but if i was slapping grades on these, i’d probably see very few B/B+’s (Decker/Castro, with an outside thought on Darnell/Tate), a few B-‘s, and a load of C+’s. At best, that screams to me a borderline top 15 system.

But that’s me.

by toonsterwu on Oct 17, 2009 12:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I just don’t think I can come with 15 teams who have a better system. With their C+’s, almost all of them will have the caveat “with big time potential.” Maybe I’m overrating upside here, but I really like this system despite the lack of a top 25 guy.

by jar75 on Oct 17, 2009 12:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

saturday, football, so randomly

thinking …

Systems that I think are better: Braves, Phillies, Giants and Rockies (I think)

Cubs (before anyone calls homer on this, compare the top 7 or 8 of both systems against each other … and the Cubs depth isn’t bad in the lower levels)

Systems that I think they are better than:

Diamondbacks, Cardinals, Astros, Mets, Marlins

I’m not sure:

Nationals (the top, say, 4 or 5 of the respective systems may actually lean Washington’s way … does the Padres depth overcome it?),

Pirates (I’d really have to think about it some more to be honest, the two systems seem fairly similar)

Brewers (Gamel/Escobar still qualify, I think, which makes this much closer)

Reds (I’ve actually got very little clue of what to think about the Reds system right now … )

Dodgers
_________

actually that doesn’t do much. I’ll think about it later … anyhow, i do think it’s a possible top 15, I’m just not sure it’s a clearcut

by toonsterwu on Oct 17, 2009 1:30 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Actually,

I’ll concede this one to you. After going through the teams, I’d say they’re in the mix with quite a few other teams for the 10-15 spots. Teams who I think are clearly better (no order):

Boston
Tampa Bay
Cleveland
Kansas City
Oakland
Texas
Atlanta
Florida
Philadelphia
Colorado

After that there’s a lot of teams that are close in my mind.

by jar75 on Oct 17, 2009 2:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

boston??

even after they traded aaway all their prospects?

by matthewmafa on Oct 17, 2009 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

All

You mean 2 of them for Vmart?

Who loves orange soda?

by Kenan and Kel on Oct 17, 2009 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha, yeah,

the Red Sox are loaded with 18-20 year-old high ceiling guys.

All they lost was Hagadone who probably will end up as a reliever.

Keep in mind that no one graduated this year besides Bard.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Oct 17, 2009 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

and for lars?

when the top prospect stinks things up, nothing happens?

mission accomplished.

by zotzotpadre on Oct 24, 2009 3:32 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

interesting

florida and oakland as clearcut betters? Florida’s system seems to fall off fast … and Oakland seems to be a similar system somewhat.

by toonsterwu on Oct 17, 2009 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Florida/Oakland

Oakland has a lot of depth. Carter is a premier prospect at this point (despite my reservations). Grant Green seems to be underrated here. Weeks/Cardenas are good MI prospects and Desme/Brown are interesting OF prospects. Wallace is probably a first baseman, but he has a good bat.

Florida does fall off a bit, but their top 5 is pretty damn impressive. I like Dominguez more than most so that may shade my opinion a bit. Chad James is a very nice pitching prospect and it is too early to write off Skipworth.

by jar75 on Oct 17, 2009 4:35 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

KC?

I’d probably take SD over them.

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Oct 19, 2009 7:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His body is supposed to be really bad. His bat looks good, but I don’t think that alone makes him premier.

by jar75 on Oct 19, 2009 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sorry, replied in the wrong place

I like KC’s top more than SD’s. I still believe in Hosmer and Moustakas.

by jar75 on Oct 19, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. Dacker
2. Poreda
3. Tate
4. Castro
5.Portillo
5. Poreda

by jarjets89 on Oct 15, 2009 7:53 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

poreda was listed twice

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Oct 15, 2009 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

accident thanks. i meant hes number 2

by jarjets89 on Oct 16, 2009 1:10 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. Simon Castro
2. Jaff Decker
3. Donavan Tate
4. Everett Williams
5. James Darnell

6. Keyvius Sampson
7. Aaron Poreda
8. Edinson Rincon
9. Logan Forsythe
10. Jonathan Galvez

This system is pretty deep

by jar75 on Oct 15, 2009 8:02 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Couple arms

That bear watching also are Dexter Carter and Cory Luebke.

by killa on Oct 15, 2009 11:11 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yes

I could have very easily went to 15 and maybe even 20. Jorge Reyes is someone who should be watched closely after his impressive Cape Cod performance. This system is lacking the premier prospect, but it is very underrated.

by jar75 on Oct 15, 2009 11:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I may be mistaken, but...

Jaff Decker isn’t a premier prospect?

Is his defense that bad?

"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond

by hero66 on Oct 19, 2009 7:58 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

His body is supposed to be really bad. His bat looks good, but I don’t think that alone makes him premier.

by jar75 on Oct 19, 2009 8:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He's a premier prospect.

He’s not out there running marathons — he’ll be just fine.

To put up a .956 OPS in the MWL at 19 is absolutely remarkable.

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Oct 20, 2009 3:31 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. jaff decker
2. simon castro
3. james darnell
4. donovan tate
5a. logan forsythe
5b. aaron poreda

really hard time choosing between forsythe and poreda for the #5 spot

Adoptive parent of Kyle Nicholson

by gore51 on Oct 15, 2009 8:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

1. Simon Castro
2. Donovan Tate
3. Jaff Decker
4. Edinson Rincon
5. James Darnell

by gogotabata on Oct 15, 2009 8:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I'd go...

Decker
Tate
Castro
Darnell
Poreda
I can’t see how Poreda is not top 5.

by joegonzo on Oct 15, 2009 9:06 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

seems like most people agree on the top 4

so the question becomes number 5. Me personally, I don’t buy Poreda as a starter, and there’s enough guys that I think could push Poreda out of 5.

That said, there’s definitely a huge case for Poreda at 5. I’m just not a huge fan.

by toonsterwu on Oct 16, 2009 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Top 5

Decker
Darnell
Castro
Tate
Sampson

by killa on Oct 15, 2009 11:16 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

3b

who is the 3b of the future for the Padres? Forsythe had over 100 walks this year, and seems to have an underrated bat

by krgrecw on Oct 15, 2009 11:33 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

3B

I think of the “Big 3” Rincon will be the best…but he wont stay at 3B. I have heard Forsythe may be moved to 2b. I think Darnell will be there 3B long term..or maybe Headley will head back

by NYSOX on Oct 16, 2009 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Swain Carroll

What do you guys think about him. Can he eventually hit for more power without sacrificing his bb rate and ba.

by hrv1978 on Oct 16, 2009 1:16 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Hmm...

1. Jaff Decker
2. Aaron Poreda
3. Simon Castro
4. Donovan Tate
5. Logan Forsythe

6-10 (no particular order): James Darnell, Eric Sogard, Adys Portillo, Wynn Pelzer, Kellen Kullbacki

I’m one of the few who would take Forsythe over Darnell right now. Its definitely close and I’ve almost gone back on my decision a few times now. I just like Forsythe’s skillset, especially if he moves back to 2B (though I also like Sogard, so hard to say).

As someone said, the system is really deep. Arguments for the top 10 available for Rincon, Galvez (though I didn’t like reports on his middle IF defense), Carroll, Hefner, Italiano, McBryde… and probably a few others. I don’t think Sampson is a top 10 guy. Pure arm strength, sure. But Portillo is above Sampson in my eyes, and maybe a few of the guys that just were sterling in Low-A and High-A this year who have good stuff.

by thudean on Oct 16, 2009 8:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

mine

1. El Torito
2. Donovan Tate
3. Logan Forsythe
4. James Darnell
5. Simon Castro

by LCT on Oct 16, 2009 9:46 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

BTW

I call Jaff Decker El Torito( like a little Bull )

by LCT on Oct 16, 2009 9:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

1. Decker
2. Castro
3. Rincon
4. Darnell
5. Pelzer

by NYSOX on Oct 16, 2009 1:08 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

yo

Decker
Castro
Darnell
Tate
Galvez

by daveh33 on Oct 16, 2009 1:26 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

real interested

in seeing tate. will he be a long twerm project or does he have polish? he did play for the heralded east cobb travel team for the past 3 years with a good track record.

by ScottAZ on Oct 16, 2009 1:27 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

my list

decker
castro
darnell
forsythe
portillo

by hrv1978 on Oct 16, 2009 2:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Padres 5

Tate
Poreda
Decker
Castro
Darnell

by acerimusdux on Oct 16, 2009 4:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

poreda and tate above decker??

can i have a reason for either

by matthewmafa on Oct 16, 2009 4:59 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Padres

top 5

1. James Darnell
2. Jaff Decker
3. Simon Castro
4. Donavan Tate
5. Dexter Carter

H.M. Poreda, Kullbacki, Forsythe, Torito

Deolis Guerra = Daniel Cabrera ?
I tend to think so

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Oct 16, 2009 5:12 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

1) Decker
2) Darnell
3) Castro
4) Tate
5) Rincon

Brett Anderson is the Truth. Brett Anderson is divine presence. Brett Anderson is eternal life. Brett Anderson is within you. Brett Anderson is here. Brett Anderson is Now.

by Frederick0220 on Oct 16, 2009 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Mine

1. Jaff Decker
2. Donovan Tate
3. Simon Castro
4. James Darnell
5. Eric Sogard

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Oct 18, 2009 11:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Cedric Hunter?

Any love still left? I like him and he is still young enough to develop. This is the year or he is a complete bust

by Marlinsin7 on Oct 20, 2009 10:25 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

not much love here

Basically every single fear about him proved to be true this year. He’ s a solid contact hitter with above-average speed but everything else is really fringy. He got challenged and beaten by AA pitching . . .frankly, they probably should have sent him back down to put himself back together.

I think he’s got 4th-5th outfielder upside, but anything more than that is seriously pushing it.

by mrkupe on Oct 24, 2009 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

3b prospects

This is a 3b producing machine for them, how will that fit in long term?

kouz- i guess they trade him
headley- either in lf or 3b
antonelli- is he a bust after 1 bad season?
forsythe, darnell

by Asfan4ever723 on Oct 22, 2009 2:54 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

re: 3b prospects

kouz – yes, trade him.
headley – back to his natural position.
antonelli – he’s a 2b prospect, and it’s now 2 bad seasons.

mission accomplished.

by zotzotpadre on Oct 24, 2009 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My list

1) Jaff Decker
2) James Darnell
3) Aaron Poreda
4) Donovan Tate
5) Jonathan Galvez
6) Simon Castro
7) Logan Forsythe
8) Kellen Kulbacki
9) Keyvius Sampson
10) Edinson Rincon
11) Everett Williams
12) Adys Portillo
13) Sawyer Carroll
14) Jeremy McBryde
15) Cory Luebke
16) James Needy
17) Alan Dykstra
18) Wynn Pelzer
19) Chad Huffman
20) Luis Durango
21) Matthew Clark
22) Eric Sogard
23) Lance Zawadski
24) Corey Kluber
25) Evan Scribner
26) Cedric Hunter
27) Jorge Reyes
28) Dexter Carter
29) Jerry Sullivan
30) Jeremy Hefner