Better MLB Career - Jay Bruce or Michael Stanton???
by Wilbur Wood on Oct 12, 2009 5:11 PM EDT
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PrintA hybrid comparison as Bruce is already in The Show. Bruce is 2.5 years older, though still a very young player having played the 2009 season at age 22. I see some similarities inasmuch as the risk factor impeding the stardom of both players is a high K rate and the reciprocal low Contact %. Both have otherworldly bat speed and are good bets to be able to hit 40+ HRs in their peak MLB seasons. Stanton has a slightly longer swing, although Stanton probably gets points for having a better work ethic (not that Bruce's is bad it just that Stanton's is world class). Defensively they should both be average to slightly above average corner outfielders and base runners. Thus, the seperation between the two will be based upon their bat.
Bruce has already shown his strengths and weaknesses at the MLB level. Stanton should still have 1.5 years of minor league development in front of him. How do you factor this into player value?
Which hitter do you like better and why?
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with that logic
Randy Wells is better than Stephen Strasburg, you know, since Wells is ALREADY in the big leauges.
by richieabernathy on Oct 12, 2009 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions
That's not the same.
We’re talking about guys with similar ceilings. Both have huge power ceilings and contact issues. He didn’t fully explain that, but it can be pretty easily inferred that he’s taking Bruce because he’s already made it and his ceiling isn’t any lower than Stanton.
Tools Whore
Jay Bruce and contact issues?
Jay struck out 19.37% of the time he stepped to the plate this season. I took the top 150 HR hitters in 2009 and found the players who hit a HR at least every 20 at bats (that would be 61 guys this year, with Bruce ranking 18th at 15.68). The average strikeout rate of those 61 players was 20%. Higher than Bruce. He doesn’t have contact problems. He isn’t Joe Mauer or anything, but he isn’t a guy who struggles with contact either really.
exactly
the question didn’t ask who was better at the same age. If it did, I would have taken Stanton. It asks who do I like better, and I like a known commodity in the Bigs more than someone that struggled somewhat in AA.
Worse case scenario is Bruce never progresses and posts 750-800 OPS for the next ten years and is a slightly above average MLB OFer. Worse case for Stanton is he never makes it out of the minors.
better
I don’t dispute the point over the long term, but your inability to communicate made for failed logic.
by richieabernathy on Oct 13, 2009 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
bruce
i think both players are similar in that they both have massive hr ceilings, but will struggle to have a batting avg better than .280.
in short both are more athletic versions of adam dunn (which is not at all an insult). that said, and i could be wrong, but as i view both players as being similar i’d pick the one who is in the majors right now- bruce.
he had an unlucky year, but unless he gets this unlucky again, or for some reason regressess i think he’s a solid bet to produce 30-35hrs next yr, with a ba of ard .260 or .270. not superstar numbers, but close to all star numbers at 23 is pretty good.
Bruce by a country mile
Stanton could stagnate in AA, which is why Heyward, Montero, and Strasburg are much much better prospects than he is. Stanton could be the next Ron Wright for all we know and look at Wrights age 19/20 numbers and who do they look similar to. http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=wright002ron
He could stagnate in AA?
Wow. Couldn’t this be applied to, well, everyone who hasn’t made it out of AA yet, which includes Montero. How many games in AAA has Strasburg pitched? And Ron Wright? Really?
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