BA's MWL Top 20
by gogotabata on Oct 1, 2009 2:41 PM EDT
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The write-up is over here.
The list:
1. Aaron Hicks, of, Beloit (Twins)
2. Dee Gordon, ss, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
3. Josh Vitters, 3b, Peoria (Cubs)
4. Brett Lawrie, 2b, Wisconsin (Brewers)
5. Mike Montgomery, lhp, Burlington (Royals)
6. Casey Crosby, lhp, West Michigan (Tigers)
7. Simon Castro, rhp, Fort Wayne (Padres)
8. Jaff Decker, of, Fort Wayne (Padres)
9. Cody Scarpetta, rhp, Wisconsin (Brewers)
10. Ethan Martin, rhp, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
11. Tim Melville, rhp, Burlington (Royals)
12. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Burlington (Royals)
13. A.J. Pollock, of, South Bend (Diamondbacks)
14. Wily Peralta, rhp, Wisconsin (Brewers)
15. James Darnell, 3b, Fort Wayne (Padres)
16. Chris Archer, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)
17. Kyle Russell, of, Great Lakes (Dodgers)
18. Grant Desme, of, Kane County (Athletics)
19. Pedro Figueroa, lhp, Kane County (Athletics)
20. Chris Carpenter, rhp, Peoria (Cubs)
Some stuff here to talk about. Simon Castro is ranked ahead of Jaff Decker, and Cody Scarpetta ahead of Ethan Martin. Hosmer falls past Montgomery and Melville in his own organization.
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Personally, I think this is a weak list
in terms of how they ranked them. Desme seems quite low to me. A bit surprised Archer of the Cubs made it safely in. Surprised Kyler Burke didn’t squeeze into the top 20. I’m not big on Scarpetta and Pollock. Castro and Decker seem low. Hicks at 1 surprises me.
I liked most of the lists up until this one, but this one seems … eh…
toonster,
did you see that they have Archer ranked ahead of Carpenter? I also was surprised by that.
BTW, no one posted a discussion of the NWL prospects here, did they? Lee #1, Jackson #3, and Watkins #19 were the Cubs who made that list.
by philadelphiacub on Oct 1, 2009 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions
yes
But I guess a fair point could be argued that the Carpenter in the MWL was a guy much older than the other kids, and still working out some control problems. Those problems still exist, but Carpenter overall might actually rank higher than Carpenter in the MWL.
I was mildly surprised that WAtkins was ranked 19 in the NWL as I thought he might go a few spots higher as the NWL seemed a bit weak this year and Watkins is still physically developing.
hosmer > melville
for me
fairly easily
was surprised to see that it was the other way around
baseball rules.
I was most surprised by Hosmer < Melville, and Scarpetta being slotted ahead of Ethan Martin, and by how low Desme ended up.
I think I would probably go Hicks/Lawrie/Gordon for my top 3.
they ranked martin that low
cause they think he;ll be a power reliever long term
btw, my quick comment on vitters
I’m not surprised with him ranking only 3rd, but for folks that might say he’s ranked too high here, keep in mind that he was dominant in the mwl
i'm reading the chat comments
And Callis indicates Brett Jackson would’ve ranked 3rd if he had qualified. Wow. Wow. Wow. I mean, I liked the pick … but 3rd?
seriously
that’s just stunning, and I liked the Jackson pick. not sure that will make me revisit my own Cubs rankings … but geesh …
Although tbh, I could see a case for Jackson ahead of Hicks, but don’t like Hicks as the top prospect in the MWL.
Just curious, who do you see as the #1 guy (excluding Jackson)?
I think there are several guys here that all could stake a claim to the spot. I personally would go with Hicks, but I think it’s a closely bunched group across the top 8.
If we're referencing just the MWL performance this year
and not how others did at other levels, I think you could make a case for Vitters (IIRC, in a recent comment, Callis was going to put him 1, so maybe he got overruled) or Lawrie. I’d ponder Decker and Castro for the top spots as well, and even Montgomery.
I’m not saying I would drop Hicks a ton, but him at 1? I’m not sold, but that’s me.
Kyler Burke
in a response to burke, Callis notes that he can’t hit lefties, lacks speed, and can’t stick in CF. My question/comments would be
a) He actually hit lefties okay this year. What he didn’t have was power against them.
b) Who’s expecting him to stick in CF? I know I’m not. Jackson’s got CF assuming they move up together, and I could see Hak-ju Lee move to CF if Castro establishes himself ahead.
Decker
He is number 1, unless he catches flyballs, juggles them and drops them over the fence for homers about every other ball hit his way and Hicks is Ryan Sweeney, Jr. in the field, then Decker. He’s even younger than Hicks. And not that matters, same stolen bases and fewer caught stealing. And that’s some impresive slugging for the MWL from Jaffy Lube.
Jackson looks pretty darn good, but his k rate in MWL was almost Desme-esque, even if he did qualify. Although decker strikes out a bit. Not quite as much. And a much higher walk rate.
by wobatus on Oct 1, 2009 3:49 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
Decker was another tough one to figure out. As a hitter, he’s right there with Vitters and Lawrie, and he’s the only lefty of the group. But while those two have most of their value in their bats, Decker has all of his value in his bat. As I wrote, one scout joked that Decker’s speed rated a minus-10 on the 20-80 scale.
baseball rules.
If vitters walked
at more than a 3% rate then maybe, but he didn’t. Lawrie’s bat also doesn’t compare, at least stat-wise, although I know he is promising and plays 2b. Hmm, Decker must have stolen 10 bases on shock value.
its really inconceivable to me how he ends up 8th in this league
… i mean, did they even look at his stats?
Probably not!
Probably didn’t even scout him either. Just liked his name, I suppose.
Yup.
I don’t understand how anyone can hammer Vitters and Lawrie for their awful gloves — rightfully so, I might add — and then put them above Decker presumably only because he’s a poor fielder. I mean, odds are pretty solid all three wind up at the bottom of the barrel of the defensive spectrum (LF/1B), and Decker put up markedly superior stats in the same league, and Callis didn’t say there’s anything to dislike about Decker’s bat on a scouting level… yeah, I don’t get it.
His Body
I think that played a pretty big role in his ranking. Callis said that he had a very poor body and that it will only get worse as he ages.
I’d have probably ranked him higher (along with Casey Crosby), but it looks like he relied heavily on athleticism. That’s the only way I can see Dee Gordon being ranked #2.
will only get worse
Hmm, does Callis have a degree in eugenics? Is Decker going to be like Mickey Lolich by the time he’s 27?
whatever
He seems to have some kind of idea of how this body type is going to turn out. Not the exact right word. I’m not suggesting that he wants to sterilize Decker. :)
He’s a squat kid, I get it, but does that mean he’ll get fatter and slower by 28 or something? I just don’t know what the science is for that. I remember reading someone (for some reason I think it was Bill James) say Albie Lopez would get fat fairly young “like a lot of mexican pitchers do” and I was like, whoa, studies please?
however
I know that scouts make physical projections all the time, that a young guy will fill out, have to move off this or that position, etc. Just am not sure that means a fireplug shaped 19 year old is going to get worse. Sure, when he’s a lot older. But maybe he actually improves his conditioning and body shape over the next 6-7 years. He might lose baby fat (ok, so maybe it ain’t baby fat at this age), reduces his body fat percentage, chases chickens around with Burgess Meredith like Rocky…I don’t know.
side note
the reports on Vitters glove this year were that it was improved from before. He’s still not a lock to stick at 3rd, though.
How the hell is Decker
“right there” with Vitters and Lawrie?
He’s in another galaxy offensively as far as I’m concerned.
"Chicks dig the long ball, although fat chicks will settle for warning track power" - Nick Diamond
Didn't BA have Pedro Figueroa in a similar list either last year or pre-season?
I don’t get it.
we in the losin baseball binness. and cousin, binness is a boomin.
ethan martin and homer bailey
check out both of their full first seasons… they are almost exactly alike
Wow
Desme’s ranking is ridiculously low here, as is Hosmer’s. My top 10 would probably be:
1. Decker
2. Hosmer
3. Gordon
4. Vitters
5. Crosby
6. Hicks
7. Montgomery
8. Desme
9. Lawrie
10. Melville
Jack "The Must, Just has no Rust, ain't no Bust, after him the ladies Lust, turns pitchers into Dust, likes his pizza with no Crust" Cust
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