Matt Wieters - Worst Case 2009
by goose102977 on Jan 9, 2009 3:51 PM EST
51 comments
I have to admit, I am already sick of Matt Wieters and he hasn't even had one AB in the Majors. I was joking in another post regarding the top fantasy players under 25 that I believe the expectations are a little high for this kid...he cannot walk on water, cannot turn water into wine, etc. Is the reason he is getting so much hype due to the fact that Baltimore hasn't had much to root for since Jeffrey Maier ripped their hearts out in 1996 (I know they won the AL East the following year)?
This leads to my question, what is the worst line Matt Wieters could produce in 2009 that you would still consider the season a success? By the way he has been hyped, I think he has to produce nearly as much as Geovany Soto did in 2008 (.285/.364/.504) for people to be happy. That is a lot of pressure for a kid who has yet to turn 23. Any thoughts?
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.270/.360/.460
that’s a succesful season, though people think he will do much better.
I do think he’ll hit 25 HRs and come close to 500 slg
by daveh33 on Jan 9, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
.250/.330/.430
If he hits that as a rookie, I’ll say he did fine. That’s already a slightly above average hitting catcher. It would be a disappointment if was not at least average at his position.
by aCone419 on Jan 9, 2009 4:00 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
his absolute floor is rod barajas' second best year according to OPS+
.230/.352/.393
he’s gonna have absolutely stellar secondary skills, but i think his worst case scenario would center around him struggling mightily to make contact.
When they should be sacrifice bunting, they are buying effeminate designer jeans. When they should be fouling off pitches, they are masturbating. Always, they are masturbating.
by variablesdont on Jan 9, 2009 4:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Wow...
I think a lot of people would be disappointed with those numbers. Problem with the baseball community these days is everyone plays fantasy baseball where defense isn’t valued, therefore people forget how important it truly is.
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by goose102977 on Jan 9, 2009 4:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
Wieters plays excellent defense. Not sure what the point of that sentence was.
by Lt Melmo on Jan 9, 2009 6:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
In other words
If he produced the above line – people will be disappointed…even if he is still valuable because he plays good defense…
by Dfarth on Jan 9, 2009 8:34 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Yeah...
What Dfarth said. I thought it was pretty clear, maybe not.
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by goose102977 on Jan 10, 2009 8:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
high expectations
I think that around here in Bmore, folks know they are not winning this year. If Weiters hits .270 w/ 20 HR and 70 RBI, people will love him.
by slickterp on Jan 9, 2009 4:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
People and smart analysts are two different things
If he doesn’t hit .275/.350/.450 he will be a “dissapointment”
Hes fine if he hits .260/.335/.425 I’ll be more than happy with it
I’d expect .270/.345/.440 if I had a gun to my head
by Navi's_Navy on Jan 9, 2009 4:29 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Well
he can always bomb…but there is really no reason why he shouldnt have a .250+/.340+/.430+ line…
by viktor06 on Jan 9, 2009 4:51 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
worst case?
He dies.
Or maybe he kills his entire team and family first and then he kills himself.
by Galt on Jan 9, 2009 4:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
.330/.455/.620
If he doesn’t win MVP, Cy Young, ROY, GG, Silver Slugger, and WS, it will be a disappointment.
by Take3 on Jan 9, 2009 5:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
+1
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Jan 9, 2009 5:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
what about the Lincecum
if he steals that away from Lincecum, then I’ll be impressed
by daveh33 on Jan 9, 2009 5:20 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
true
I won’t be impressed unless he wins AL Cy Young AND NL Cy Young.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Jan 9, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
lets hope he doesn't pull an Alex Gordon
by Bravesin07 on Jan 9, 2009 5:26 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
not every prospect jumps to the big leagues like it's nothing....
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Jan 9, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
His point. I can’t believe I actually agree with one of Braves’ laconic posts ….
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 9, 2009 7:56 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
God forbid he doesnt burst onto the scene, Evan Longoria-like
and instead just gets incrementally better each year, but remains a fantasy disappointment for a couple years.
by alskor on Jan 10, 2009 3:22 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Worst case scenario
is he is the second coming of Eric Munson…
I would probably expect him to put up Brian McCann numbers offensively – that maybe overrating or underrating his potential, depending on which ‘expert’ you talk to.
by BBFan1 on Jan 9, 2009 7:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
If Munson could actually catch
He’d still be in the big leagues.
by aap212 on Jan 9, 2009 9:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Worst case....
Someone convinces him he’s Brandon Inge.
Everett, Laird, Treanor, and E. Jackson. Print those WS tix now!
by sportznut3081 on Jan 9, 2009 11:35 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bill James
Bill James 2008 Major league projection for Wieters:
.311/.407/.526, 24 HR, 63 K, 76 BB
Wow!!!
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by sully10x on Jan 9, 2009 11:40 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Bill James projections are notoriously overoptimistic for hitters
but that’s still ridiculous for a guy with zero major league at-bats. Normally those systems figure a guy is for shit until he proves otherwise.
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by PaulThomas on Jan 10, 2009 5:40 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
A little twist . . .
What does Baltimore do with Wieters?
A) Sign Pudge to a minimum deal and bring up Wieters in May/June (a la Longoria) to get 1 more year out of him?
B) Wieters is the starting catcher on Opening Day?
(I actually got a little giddy typing “Opening Day”!!! How much longer?)
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by Savoy on Jan 10, 2009 12:06 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Pudge
As a Tiger fan, you don’t want to bring Pudge in as a starter and screw him over like that. He may not be starter material, but he still thinks he is. He would be a disaster in the clubhouse. He is anyway, but if you pulled that it would be even worse. You really have to look at baseball as more then just putting a bunch of number lines together.
by NMUWildcat027 on Jan 10, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
I'd imagine
The best thing you could do is option A, but over the course of the season have him play 1/3 of the games at DH, 1/3 at catcher, and sit 1/3 of the time. That would still start Puge 2/3 of the time, so he’d probably be content.
by JayWise on Jan 10, 2009 1:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
They definently go A...
Maybe not Pudge, but they will start Wieters in AAA. It’s the right business choice…and after all…it is a business, not a sport, right!
"Yesterday Is History, Tomorrow Is A Mystery, Today Is A Gift...That's Why We Call It The Present." Master Oogway (Kung Foo Panda)
by Kenner's Corner on Jan 10, 2009 2:06 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
theyre in talks with Greg Zaun
"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
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by harendaman365 on Jan 11, 2009 12:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You are all being conservative
Bill James, a guy I think all of us have to respect, projected this for wieters in 2009:
.311/.407./.526 in 133 games with 24 homers. and some people even say he could put up better numbers than that. i’m just as sick of hearing his name as the rest of you, but i started to take notice when i read teixeira comps…..imagine mark teixeira as a catcher. that’s what one of the websites said of him (either bp or ba). he will not stumble whatsoever. if he even comes close to that bill james projection, then he will have already outproduced mccann AND mauer in only his rookie year.
you can say he’s overhyped all you want, but this could be one AMAZING catcher.
by psugator on Jan 10, 2009 12:21 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
conservative?
The question is asking for his “worst case” line. People are predicting that he’ll be one of the top 5 catchers in the AL as a worst case scenario. Is that really conservative?
Worst case scenario: he hits .270/.340/.450…in AAA.
by SmokeyJoeWood on Jan 10, 2009 1:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Bill James...
Yeah, most of us here do have a lot of respect for him as a baseball analyst and statitician. But when it comes to predictions for young stars, he has always been very, very generous. He constantly predicts MVP types of numbers for players who have never even taken a Major League at bat before.
As for the Tex comp… Teixeira only hit 259/331/480 (26HR) his rookie year. How much better do you expect Weiters to hit? We all have to remember that Wieters has never hit above AA, and even that was for only half a season. I think he is a Top 2 prospect in baseball just like everyone else, but even those prospects fail from time to time. Not all become Future HOFers. Remember the line Ben Grieve put up in AA/AAA? He had 2 good seasons in the majors and a couple other decent ones, but other than that, he was less than replacement level.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on Jan 10, 2009 1:17 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
You people...
What you guys don’t remember is that this guy has EVERYTHING. You can’t just use the past to prove that he won’t be good, because there is not a single thing wrong with him. He even has all the intangibles, likeliness to be a clubhouse leader, etc. Jay Bruce was picked out of high school, and so had little experience for the reaaaaal majors. But Wieters had 4 years in college, and his league (the Cape Cod League) used wooden bats. He’s acclimated to this type of stuff already!
There may be an adjustment period, but for me that means a .270/.360/.445 line. He’ll be a monster.
by maneatingbaby on Jan 10, 2009 9:48 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
Everything?
Can you show us pictures of your Matt Wieters shrine? He maybe everything you assume and there is really no debating his potential, but he still has a long way to go before he is enshrined in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.
by BBFan1 on Jan 10, 2009 10:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"You people"?
What do you mean “you people”???!!
by Rocktopus on Jan 10, 2009 10:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
"You people"?
What do YOU mean “you people”???!!
by PhillyPhanatic on Jan 10, 2009 11:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
blah blah blah
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on Jan 10, 2009 11:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
The “you people” was based towards the people who had doubts. I made sweeping generalities because I’m sweepingly smashed. Who knew girlfriends could be so I-don’t-know-if-we-can-curse-on-here-because-I’m-new?
Obviously Wieters has a long way toward enshrinement. No prospect has more than a .0001 chance of making it in there. But what I wrote is a regurgitation of everything I’ve read and seen of Wieters over the last coupla years (I like to go to minor league games and pretend I know how to examine the mechanics of a player) Every report I’ve read said there is nothing wrong with this guy.
by maneatingbaby on Jan 10, 2009 11:31 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
re:
I wasn’t really directing that at you… sorry for the mix-up. I was just quoting a scene from “Tropic Thunder”. Just thought it was funny and it fit perfectly…
by PhillyPhanatic on Jan 11, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Worst Case
Weiters is abducted by aliens, but manages to hit .400 on the planet Volton.
Everett, Laird, Treanor, and E. Jackson. Print those WS tix now!
by sportznut3081 on Jan 11, 2009 9:49 AM EST reply actions 0 recs
Volton
BP’s park adjustment factors for Volton shows that it’s a severe pitchers environment (probably because the ball weighs about 16 lbs). Nevertheless, I would be disappointed if Wieters only hit .400 there.
by siddfynch on Jan 11, 2009 12:12 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
Haha
Good stuff.
Everett, Laird, Treanor, and E. Jackson. Print those WS tix now!
by sportznut3081 on Jan 11, 2009 1:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs
OPS
I’m hoping for at least .800. If it’s over .750, everything’s okay. If he’s under .700, it’s certainly a disappointment. If it’s in between .700-.750, there’s discussion as to whether or not he had a disappointing year.
by journeymen on Jan 12, 2009 2:23 PM EST reply actions 0 recs
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