Florida Marlins Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Jan 9, 2009 1:26 AM EST
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Tools, tools, tools....
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Cameron Maybin, OF, Grade A-: He’s got some flaws, but overall I buy into the notion that he will refine his tools into skills. Just don’t expect him to win batting titles.
2) Logan Morrison, 1B, Grade A-: I think people are underrating his power. In 2009, he’ll put everything together, batting average, OBP, and homers.
3) Matt Dominguez, 3B, Grade B+: Close to an A-, impressive power with stellar glove, but have some concerns about his plate discipline.
4) Mike Stanton, OF, Grade B+: Anyone who likes space race history will love the book comment I wrote about him this year. Could be a superstar, could flail helplessly against Double-A pitching, too soon to rate higher than a B+.
5) Kyle Skipworth, C, Grade B+: At this point, I’m not worried about his rookie ball performance. I believe in the bat and his defense will come along with more experience.
6) Ryan Tucker, RHP, Grade B: He needs another pitch if he wants to start, but the ceiling stands out as excellent.
7) Sean West, LHP, Grade B: Another high ceiling arm, but command problems preclude higher grade at this time.
8) Jose Ceda, RHP, Grade B: Yet another high ceiling arm with command issues. Also has to watch weight.
9) Chris Coghlan, 2B, Grade B-: Nice steady contact hitter, won’t be a star but should have a long career.
10) John Raynor, OF, Grade B-: Fast, draws walks, has some pop, negatives are age and high strikeout rate.
11) Eulogio De La Cruz, RHP, Grade B-: Borderline C+, but I’m giving him credit for surviving
12) Gaby Sanchez, 1B, Grade C+: Borderline B-, but MLEs show him as a .260/.340/.420 hitter, not great for a first baseman. I do like his plate discipline.
13) Scott Cousins, OF, Grade C+: Has across the board skills, could be a strong fourth outfielder or an average corner guy.
14) Bryan Petersen, OF, Grade C+: Similar to Cousins to some extent, but a year behind him on the development curve. Both are players who deserve more attention.
15) Aaron Thompson, LHP, Grade C+: Could be a C. I don’t like the way his Double-A numbers slipped and I worry about health.
16) Brad Hand, LHP, Grade C+: Young projectable lefty from
17) Isaac Galloway, OF, Grade C: Tons o’tools, but may be held back by poor plate discipline.
18) Jake Smolinski, 2B, Grade C: Interesting player acquired in Willingham/Olsen deal. Nice left-handed offensive potential, but can’t stay healthy so far.
19) Brett Sinkbeil, RHP, Grade C: Surviving on reputation at this point. I think he is better-suited for relief work than starting. Still has the sinker but just doesn’t dominate.
20) Chris Leroux, RHP, Grade C: Could be a fit in the bullpen sooner than expected, if his command is there.
Others: Pete Andrelczyk, RHP; Andrew Battisto, RHP; Blake Brewer, RHP; Brett Carroll, OF; P.J. Dean, RHP; Johnny Dorn, RHP; Paul Gran,3B: Thomas Hickman, OF; Dan Jennings, LHP; Kyle Kaminska, RHP; Zack Kroenke, LHP; Chris Mobley, RHP; Edgar Olmos, LHP; Graham Taylor, LHP; Dallas Trahern, RHP.
As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF
The Marlins have a large group of potential impact players at the top of the system.
Maybin, Morrison, Dominguez, Stanton, and Skipworth all have the ability to be major league regulars and possible All-Stars. Few teams offer that kind of depth.
Beyond this group, there are other hitters who should be fine role players or average regulars. . .Coghlan, Sanchez, even Raynor, Cousins, and Peterson have that potential.
The pitchers are a bit less impressive. There are several very live arms, but they all have command problems and given the attrition rate on pitchers, the Marlins could use more depth here. But most teams could.
I do note a relative lack of C+ types, but some of the Cs have the potential to move into that category next year.
Overall, the Marlins are loaded.
Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!
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hmmm
i disagree with Dominguez even being a B+. he was in an extreme hitters park which really inflated his numbers.
Home Games 1.014 OPS
Away Games .688 OPS
his defense is great, but i still think there are PLENTY of questions about his bat.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
Morrison
I love the love for Morrison Mr. SIckels , well played. I am a bit suprised Skipworth got a B+ already as he struggled in his limited showing this year but i do think you nailed the high grades for Morrison and Dominguez.
First Basemen
Is this the most talented crop of Minor League first basemen ever? If not it has to be pretty damn close. Lars, Smoak, Morrison, Hosmer, Freeman, Alonso, LaPorta, and Villalona make up a hell of a class. And not just that, but looking at the young 1B in the majors (Davis, Fielder, Miggy, Loney, Votto, Morneau), there is going to be a LOT of talent at the position for a long time.
Dominguez over Stanton
Why?
I imagine a major part is Dominguez’s defense, but Stanton is an athletic beast that played some CF. Certainly not projected to stay there, but the guy’s no slouch.
How do you rank this system overall?
Some quick hits:
Other teams with two or more A’s:
Rangers have three (one A, two A-)
Giants have two (one A, one A-)
Royals have two A-
Cardinals have two A-
Only three other teams also had 3 B+’s (Orioles, Rays, Braves). No team had as many B+ and A combined
Only 5 other teams had atleast their top 10 being filled with at worst B-‘s (Rangers 10, Braves 13, Royals 12, Red Soxs 13, A’s 15), with Marlins being 11.
ignore the links from the numbers, were suppose to be inside brackets like [ 10 ]
by nny on Jan 9, 2009 4:22 AM EST up reply actions
Has to be
one of the top systems with those grades.
Great system
Generally speaking, this is how I’d want an ideal system to be structured (with more depth at the bottom though. 5 B+ or better bats, and then some upside B arms.
Wow
I just don’t see it.
I’m fine with an A- for Maybin and can live with the B+ for Stanton but Morrison, Dominguez and Skipworth seem all at least a grade to high. Almost ever rank seems to be based almost purely on projection. Heck even many of the B/B- guys you could argue are to high.
While I’m posting though, I think Sanchez could probably get that B- since he is MLB ready but for the most part I think there is to much missing to give these kinds of grades to some of these players. Id go something like:
1) Cameron Maybin = Grade A-
2) Logan Morrison = B+
3) Mike Stanton = B+
4) Matt Dominguez = B
5) Ryan Tucker = B
6) Sean West = B-
7) Gaby Sanchez = B-
8) Kyle Skipworth = B-
9) Jose Ceda = B-
10) Chris Coghlan = B-
But I’m just not willing to go out on the limb with some of these guys considering the amount of projection still needed to get the grades they got.
Like I said in the other thread, you expect BA to go out on the limb for young, toolsy players with almost everything to prove because that is their MO. John on the other hand doesn’t tend to do that which is why I was surprised. When it comes down to it, I think both are overrating the system and some of the players; either they look great for being aggressive with so much projection still needed for those players to become the players they think they can or they will look absolutely horrible. We will see.
Wow
You sure are projecting an awful lot with these grades. To me, almost all of them seem high until you get into the B’s. I’m really surprised with this top 20.
Jai Miller
He deserves a mention..great Defense and has improved his BB/K ratios at each step
Jai is frustrating
He’s one of those guys who passes the old eyeball test. He looks like he should be a world class power hitter when you see him up close, but he’s incredibly inconsistent and displays very little power. I’ve seen Jai play maybe 30-40 games, and other than looking impressive in a uniform, he’s never done anything to impress me offensively. His defense is pretty solid from what I’ve seen, but I doubt he’ll ever make it out of the minors, unless he makes a lot of changes.
Logan Morrison
What kind of power do you think he will end up having? Why do you give him the benefit of the doubt re: power but not someone like, say Taylor Green? Green’s ISO’s in each of the last 2 years (same league as Morrison both times, hence the choice of comparison) were just a tad behind him. Further to that Green put up better BB rates, K rates and LD rates in both years but that’s more to the topic of how underrated I think Green is (very unlucky babip this year). But anyway, on Morrison, isn’t it far more likely that he ends up a high-average 1bman with just “okay” power?
Could it be that Taylor Green is a year older, slugged .443 to Morrison’s .494 and is on the small side at 5’10" 180 compared to Logan’s 6’2" 215.
by The_Godfather on Jan 9, 2009 1:51 PM EST up reply actions
SLG
Most of the SLG difference was due to Morrison’s higher average (despite his lower LD% and higher K rate). Their ISO’s (163 vs 154) were not that different. No question Morrison’s size gives him more power projection. But is it really that much more? That’s all I’m really asking. I mean the difference in their prospect ratings (A- vs. C+) is huge. And in every other area they seem to be either equal or Green comes out on top. Its the same with Morrison vs. other 1b prospects. What that says to me is John is not just saying he’s going to pick up a little bit of power, but that he’s REALLY going be a power hitter. Just asking why.
Thank you
Thank you, John for the top 20 series. You got through the whole league while BA still has 2 full divisions to go and BP is not yet at the half way mark – Way to keep baseball going all year long!
Great list John
I agree with most of them. Dominguez is severely underrated on this forum. I mite drop skipworth to a B, but its nice to see the marlins getting some respect.
Stanton
is the reason we discuss prospects. This guy could be a star or could never play in the Bigs. Obviously 39 bombs as an 18-year-old is ridiculous. He’s already shown production to go along with an impressive set of tools, but maybe it’s too much too soon, meaning he develops bad habits by attempting to reproduce a 39 hr season. I am very intrigued and interested to see what he will do next year. Maybe John will write a controversial prospect piece on him.
Ron Wright hit 40 at a young age in the Braves system
and he never made it and got traded.
Wright had 36 homers
in A+/AA one year, and he was two years older than Stanton. Though their profiles weren’t that similar, it is kind of an interesting statistical comparison.
.275/.363/.604, 20, A+
v.
.293/.381/.611, 18, A
I am put more in mind of Ian Stewart’s Sally line:
.319/.398/.594, 19, A
Coghlan
I am probably higher on Coghlan than more fantasy owners just cuz I have him in my farm system. I really think they are gonna bring him up this year to start at 2nd. I see him as a solid prospect. I would probably rank him with a B.
Anyone else think he’ll be in the bigs? Or am i just silly?
I’m pretty high on Coghlan myself, all he does is get on base and he has hit wherever he has been. As far as him starting it obviously all depends on the Marlins moving Dan Uggla at the deadline, which I’d put at about 50/50.
by The_Godfather on Jan 10, 2009 5:00 PM EST up reply actions
Raynor
Higher than I expected he’d be rated, but at a perfect position with a perfect grade.
And I thought I’d be one of very few B-’s for him.
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a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong
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