San Diego Padres Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Jan 7, 2009 12:40 AM EST
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The Ultimate 1970s baseball card. Just need some shag carpet. . .
All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Kyle Blanks, 1B, Grade B+: I don’t know where he fits except as trade bait, but I’m convinced that the bat is real. Considered Grade B, but that’s what I gave him last year and he improved in ’08.
2) Jaff Decker, OF, Grade B: Need to see at higher levels, could be a cross between Brian Giles and Matt Stairs.
3) Mat Latos, RHP, Grade B: I believe in his ceiling, and while the intercostal injury is annoying, he pitched very well when on the mound.
4) Kellen Kulbacki, OF, Grade B: The Winner of the 2009 Josh Willingham Award, given to a guy who can really f**king hit, but who doesn’t get as much respect as he deserves due to lack of tools.
5) Cedric Hunter, OF, Grade B-: Improved slightly compared to ’07. Young, hits liners, Double-A will tell us a lot.
6) James Darnell, 3B-OF, Grade B-: Although drafted behind Allan Dykstra, his balance of tools and skills is likely more valuable in the long run.
7) Allan Dykstra, 1B, Grade B-: Will hit homers and draw walks, but where does he play?
8) Will Inman, RHP, Grade B-: Continues to defy the scouts. Needs to lower the walk rate but K/IP continues to stand out. Considering downgrade to C+.
9) Wade LeBlanc, LHP, Grade C+: Hammered in the majors, but will get more chances. Finesse lefty with thin margin of error.
10) Matt Antonelli, 2B, Grade C+: A very difficult grade and ranking. Despite horrible season, he continued to control the strike zone very well. Hard to know what to think here.
11) Eric Sogard, 2B, Grade C+: Excellent secondary skills. Needs to repeat this in Double-A.
12) Jonathan Galvez, SS, Grade C+: Very hard to know where to rank these DSL guys. Could rank as high as 9th if you are going just for tools and youth. Could be much higher next year.
13) Simon Castro, RHP, Grade C+: Hard-throwing right-hander is a breakthrough candidate. Not sure why he doesn’t get more attention.
14) Cole Figueroa, 2B, Grade C+: Another relatively polished college bat. Would like larger sample size, potential to rank higher next year.
15) Adis Portillo, RHP, Grade C+: Pitching version of Galvez….very young, talented, but very far away.
16) Blake Tekotte, OF, Grade C+: Another guy with strong baseball skills but needs to repeat at higher levels.
17) Jeremy Hefner, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper from 2007 draft had a very fine year in A-ball, good components.
18) Josh Geer, RHP, Grade C+: Could be a nice strike-throwing fourth starter if his elbow holds up.
19) Logan Forsythe, 3B, Grade C+: Good glove, polished bat, lack of power could make him a Joe Randa type.
20) Will Venable, OF, Grade C: Looks like a fourth outfielder.
Others: Tyson Bagley, RHP; Anthony Bass, RHP; Greg Burke, RHP; Everth Cabrera, SS; Mitch Canham, C; Cesar Carrillo, RHP; Sawyer Carroll, OF; Erik Davis, RHP; Travis Denker, 2B: Ernesto Freire, RHP; Steve Garrison, LHP; Chad Huffman, OF; Drew Miller, RHP; Rob Musgrave, LHP; Ivan Nova, RHP; Wynn Pelzer, RHP; Cesar Ramos, LHP; Chad Reineke, RHP; Nick Schmidt, LHP; Evan Scribner, RHP; Michael Watt, LHP; Mark Worrell, RHP.
As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.
NOTE TO READERS:
These aren’t supposed to be detailed reports, folks, these are preliminary grades from the book and thumbnail blurbs. The book has more detail.
Another point: as stated numerous times, these grades are PRELIMINARY. That means they are not final. That means I am still thinking about them. That means I will go back and review every grade before the book goes to press, to make sure that no one gets screwed on a grade just because I’m in a bad mood or exhausted or something.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF
I expected this system to be thin, but if you sit down and look at it, it is not as bad as people say. There is a definite lack of sure-fire stars, but there is considerable depth in C+ types.
Of the Bs, Blanks looks like he can be a solid first baseman, and Decker’s bat could be very special indeed. Kulbacki, Darnell, Hunter, and Dykstra should all be contributors in one way or another, and all of them have a chance to be regulars. I remain highly intrigued with Latos, if only he can stay healthy. I like Inman more than the scouts do, and yes I have seen him in person. He’s got flaws and I might go down to C+, but there is just something about him that makes me think he will continue to surprise people. We will see if that remains true in the PCL.
Antonelli is a huge enigma, and no I don’t know what to expect.
The mass of Grade C+/C guys has a whole lot of players who could be useful role players, with a few high ceiling/high risk guys (Castro, Galvez, Portillo) mixed in.
Overall this system needs more impact talent, especially on the pitching side, but it is not as bad as it’s reputation, and I kept finding guys that I didn’t want to leave out. As it stands I will probably have to cut some of the Cs.
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Big fan of Tekotte.
I’ve followed him since his senior season in Miami. He doesnt have great power, but the guy can get on base as well as anybody, makes good contact, and can steal bases. He can be a valuable leadoff guy in the majors, I think.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
I like these grades
John’s top 5 matches mine. I was thinking there’d be a few more B- guys, but the sheer amount of C+ guys and their interchangeability makes it seem like it fits. Fingers crossed that a 2-3 of those C+ move into the B range next year and either Decker or Latos push into the B+ area.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
Hmmmm....
I expected this system to be thin, but if you sit down and look at it, it is not as bad as people say. There is a definite lack of sure-fire stars, but there is considerable depth in C+ types.
I still think this system IS A LOT deeper than even John suggests. He says the system lacks impact players but check how Cedric Hunter’s numbers compare to Tony Gwynn despite being a high school draft pick and playing in pitchers’ parks and how his first few years compare to Derek Jeter’s first few years… Hunter’s a stud in CF too. John says next year will tell us a lot. However, next year Hunter will play in a park that makes Petco play small. His numbers will not be as good, but they will still be solid.
John is right about the Padres needing more impact pitching talent.
its matt antonelli
not mike. Not being a prick, just hate typos and goofs on the net. Used to drive me NUTS when people would spell Michael Jordan’s name with an O or Ripken’s last name with an I or McGwire McGuire. Cheers.
+1000000
This is only annoying to me b/c I’ve been talking endlessly about him.
www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com
sorry
Sorry. I worked a 16 hour day yesterday
by John Sickels on Jan 7, 2009 10:12 AM EST up reply actions
Speaking of Antonelli
What a cop-out grade in a C+. Seems like a guy you should be taking a stand on one way or the other. To just say “i dont know” and play it safe with a neutral grade is a disappointment.
?
C+ is exactly the grade Antonelli should get. NOBODY knows what to make of him, but the potential is still there for him to rebound.
Again
I’ve been preaching a turn around.
www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com
i don't know
You want me to lie and pretend I do know?
Well, I’m not going to do that. I’m telling the truth, I DON’T KNOW. No one does.
Sad to see Cesar's stock has fallen this much. Hopefully he can rebound from TJ and make some waves this season.
by thejd44 on Jan 7, 2009 2:43 AM EST reply actions
I don't think his stock has fallen...
Carrillo still features an 88-91 2-seamer and flashes a 4-seamer that has 2-4 more mph on it… I saw him in the CAL last year and he couldn’t find the plate in the first (but got away without surrending a run) then dominated innings 2-5. That’s like most guys coming off TJ; inconsistent. We’ll know a lot more about him this year (though his numbers may be inflated in San Antonio – check his home/road splits). I think he’s still a solid potential #3.
I guess what I mean is that he was a first round pick a few years ago
And now he’s not even in the top 20 of a system that is probably around the middle of the pack.
He’ll be 25 for this season, so he really needs to light up AAA, and hopefully he’ll get a shot in the majors. I think he can as long as he’s healthy.
by thejd44 on Jan 7, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
The sad thing is...
…he should have had surgery right away when he hurt his elbow but he wanted to try rehabbing it. So he missed 2 yrs instead of 1. He’s still fine tho. I expect a big rebound in this, his second season following surgery.
Kellen Kulbacki
Also, most deserving of having an f-bomb dropped to describe how f**king good he can hit.
One of the top...
…hitters in all the minors… Also, I’ve seen him play, he’s not above-average in RF by any means, but he’s no stiff either (though he probably is best suited for LF).
I don't know how many saw my post...
…in the Padres discussion…
Check out Kulbacki’s aggregate MiLB numbers:
In 163 games & 591 AB: .303/.393/.521 w/ 33 2B, 3 3B, and 30 HR and a 83/127 BB/SO ratio
(And most of those strikeouts came in his pro debut in the Northwest League.)
Luis Domoromo?
Another big int’l FA signing, why isn’t he in at least the others section?
www.thebaseballuniverse.blogspot.com
Too low on
I think you’re too low on Canham for 1. Have you taken into account that he really hasn’t been catching for long? A high-obp catcher is a nice thing to have.
Also, I expected at least honorable mentions for Drew Cumberland and Jeremy McBryde. I figured McBryde especially would be a favorite of yours.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
curious
Do you comment on anyone you don’t own in MWBL on here?
http://rswanzey.blogspot.com
cumberland
Cumberland should be in there. Love McBryde’s K/BB, don’t like the H/IP.
by John Sickels on Jan 7, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
Mcbryde's H/IP
Valid point, but he did also have a fairly absurd .378 BABIP this season, so I think he deserves to be given a bit of slack in regards to his H/IP rate.
John
Will you rank the systems as a whole at the end?
Deeper in other ways too
It’s interesting how this system has quite a few recent high picks who are either ranked as “Other” or not ranked anywhere (Carillo, Schmidt, Bush)
What’s the latest on Bush anyway? Does he have any upside at all at this point?:
by ofsticksandbats on Jan 7, 2009 11:16 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
John
what is the likelihood that Decker is advanced enough to begin full-season ball in the cozy California League?
by richieabernathy on Jan 7, 2009 11:26 AM EST reply actions
I'm not John, but it's not likely...
The Padres have had a highly regarded HS hitter in each of the last few drafts (one fizzled and 2 are still in the system) each started their first FULL season in the MidWest League (Kyler Burke, Cedric Hunter, and Drew Cumberland). There’s no reason to think Decker won’t follow them to Fort Wayne.
Completely agree
But I’m hoping he crushes the league to the point where he gets a midseason promotion to Lake Elsinore. That would put him on track for a 2012 San Diego debut (at, I believe, age 22), which would be awesome.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
I actually disagree...
I want him to do very well, but I’d love to move one level per year. If he’s not in San Diego until 23, then we get him through 28, I’d rather have him for his year as a 28 yr old than his year as a 22 year old… Getting a player all the way to the bigs quickly is fun and great for bragging rights, but teams’ also lose their rights to a player before that player reaches his prime.
Castro
I think he is ranked too low. I think if Latos is a B then Castro is at least a B-. His numbers are as good as Latos. I am not saying Latos isnt a good prospect..he is..but Castro has improved from lower levels…and Latos(because injury) hasnt shown the same
Wynn Pelzer
I really like what I’ve seen so far from him. He was old for the MWL, but he’s got 3 above average pitches and has really done well with adopting the change-up heavy philosophy of the organization. Seems to be giving up a few too many hits, but I could see mgmt pushing him up to AA next year and if he has success there, it’d be tough to leave him off of any top-20 lists.
Pelzer
I heard talk of moving him to the pen..maybe CL? That would move him along faster..but he pitched pretty well in the rotation last year..what would you do with him?
Pelzer
Absolutely keep him in the rotation until he proves he can’t handle the workload. For a system that’s pretty thin in the SP department, they need all the help they can get.
It’ll be good for his arm anyway to keep it stretched out. I’m not sure how true it is, but I heard that they (Padres) also discouraged him from throwing his plus split-finger pitch in favor of developing the change. Maybe John can confirm this? If they let him throw that again, it just gives him another weapon to be successful with.
Hey John,
I like your generosity for the home town farm system but I still cannot understand how you rate Blanks higher than Beau Mills? Your description fits both to perfection.
Blanks vs. Mills
Looking at 2008 alone, Blanks put up better numbers (they had the same SLG and walk rates, Blanks was better in K%, AVG and OBP) in a higher level playing in one of the worst home parks for hitters in the minors. I’d think that is worth an extra “+” at the end of Blanks’ grade compared to Mills.
Not to be arguementative, but this
was Mills first full year and Mills was blocked by other prospects from moving to AA. No such problem in Padres system. Hard to envision a home park worse than Kinston but too lazy to look it up. Number difference is minimal and you were selective. Texas League is generally considered a hitter’s league from what I read. Has Blanks learned what the glove is for?
Nelson Wolff stadium
The home of the Missions is, as I understand it, absolutely brutal on righties. There’s basically a jet stream that blows in from LF knocking down any pull-power these guys might have. This is what started the demise of Chad Huffman’s power. Blanks was able to get around it because he’s still actually a hitter and knows how to go the other way with a pitch.
I am not trying to belittle Blanks hitting
at all. He is a perfectly capable hitter and I would expect him to do well in the majors, although it is unlikely to be for the Pads. I have only seen him play once whereas I have seen Mills several times. I don’t really rely on stats. I rely extensively on watching them play. I believe it is fair to say that the Blanks that i saw was unathletic and “lumbering” around 1B. Mills is far more athletic and will be a far better 1B with experience. I do not believe the same can be said for Blanks as a defender but it has been a year since I saw him play. Although I don’t rely on the local rag for analysis any more than I do BA or even John, the paper said his skill level at 1B was poor. I know nothing of Nelson Wolff stadium. My only comment was that Kinston is a notorious pitcher’s park in a pitchers league. Which is worse, I cannot say. When looking at ballplayers, I really don’t check out stadiums. I evaluate the player skills and potential ceiling. I let the statheads argue the minutae. There is a place for that but scouts don’t really care. And yes, I have been wrong on many occasions. I thought Michael Main would be a better OF than pitcher and that is not a widely held view, especially now. That is why there are multiple levels to the scouting process. I will back off the question I posed about his defensive prowess when I see it. I will get another chance this year if form holds.
Stats are how they play
Even when you’re not watching.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
Those that can watch and evaluate do just that.
Those that can’t just read the stats. Fact of baseball life. Place for both.
SUCH irony!!!
You’ve been trumpeting Beau Mills – a 2-tool player (hitting & hitting for power) and a guy a lot of scouts questions (despite great college stats)…
Not this one. Not a superstar but has
good potential. You must view Blanks differently but, as noted, I do not.
Blanks could be a better hitter...
…than Adrian Gonzalez. Yeah, he’s that good. And as for the scouting aspect of it. He doesn’t try to crush the ball (I’ve seen him a few times) he swings easy and compact and the ball just JUMPS off his bat. When he was at Lake Elsinore, the Storm played a game at Petco and he had this easy swing and the ball went to Beach-corner and off the wall on one swing, on another the ball hit the wall/facing behind the LF seats in-between the Western Metal building and where the upper LF seats are… It was a no-doubter and it was an easy swing. He’s got super-star hitting ability.
No arguement from me. I think he is probably as good
as Montero. And he can field better!
"Blanks could be a better hitter...than Adrian Gonzalez."
Stop it.
He’d be at least an A-, if not an A if that was the case. Apparently even Gonzalez is underrated by his own fans.
You’re coming off as homer of the “enormous” variety.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
No...
I was the first to say that Adrian would play early b/c of Klesko’s injury and not give up the starting position. I know Gonzalez’ value, Blanks is just THAT good of a hitter. Also, notice I didn’t say he WILL be a better hitter, I said he could be.
Look: In 6 MiLB seasons, Adrian had 69 HR, in 4 MiLB seasons, Blanks has 61.
Career MiLB stats:
Gonzalez: .296/.365/.448
Blanks: .307/.398/.508
(And Blanks has played in some pretty extreme pitchers’ parks.)
The only problem is
You only get to see two teams that way. Stats belong with scouts because scouts can’t be at every game. You got to accept it.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
I forget which BA author said it...
I think it was Callis, but he said something along the lines of, “Tools are more important than production, but at some point those tools have to produce.” So for all the Ruben Riveras out there (a tools god) if he doesn’t produce (statistics) the tools don’t matter. Yeah, the BA guys look at stats too.
That is all the BA guys do.
They are writers, not scouts. They rely on stats and word of mouth. I have yet to see a BA writer at any game but it might happen someday. However, that would be something new and BA hiring its own scouts to write does not appear to be in the cards.
A good scout would have told you
that Ruben Rivera had no clue about hitting. But there had to be some love until that became obvious. Not to defame poor Ruben but he was the only intellectual match in baseball for Manny. However, Ramirez’ work ethic at hitting has been a bit better.
People started to question his defense...
…when he DH’d most of 06. He won’t make people forget about Adrian Gonzalez but he is probably slightly above average.
How can you NOT take park into account? Does Xavier Nady is as good as a hitter as Adrian? Yet their stats are about the same (.871 vs. .867 OPS)… If we don’t account for park-affects then how do we know if players’ stats are over or under-rated (or accurate)?
Nelson-Wolff stadium is fairly average dimmensions, but every night there’s a 10-15mph wind that blows straight in. It is supposedly much harder on right-handed hitters and it supposedly makes Petco play small (wow!).
Lastly, scouting is important, HUGELY important. However, the problem with scouting is that if they see or don’t see something, they cannot comment on it. Scouts filter the noise. If I saw Adam Kennedy play one game, Game 6 of ALCS the year they won the WS, he hit 3 HR. Would I then surmise that he had 40-HR power? Stats can confirm or contradict what scouting shows. If you don’t look at stats, you’re missing half the picture.
If you really want to know how to look at performance
from a scout’s perspective, there is a nice article on BA for the uninformed. Read it and get back to me if you still feel the need.
blanks
For what it is worth, I have seen Blanks in person, and I’m convinced he will hit. It isn’t just the numbers.
by John Sickels on Jan 8, 2009 12:00 AM EST up reply actions
I have seen him as well, John.
There is no issue about his hitting. If there is an issue, it is about his defense. Even though it has been over a year since I have seen him play in the field, I questioned whether his glovework had improved. I did not see much that would indicate there was a high ceiling defensively. As I stated, I see much more projection in Beau Mills defensively. You can tell me I am wrong about this and I will accept that. But I have seen both and I believe there is a significant difference in defensive upside. I also think there is little difference in offensive projection in spite of the year advancement progress wise by Blanks.
No offense but you are coming off pretty snide. You are in a thread about Padres players, not really sure what you expected. Are you actually a scout? Or just someone who watches baseball a lot and feels he is just as good as one? Either way, I think you should back off just a bit; Blanks is a very good hitter and I’ve heard he is pretty athletic for his size.
if you thought
that was a good article, then you are in the dark ages of baseball scouting.
by richieabernathy on Jan 8, 2009 9:32 AM EST up reply actions
Can I assume you are speaking from professional
knowledge on the subject? If you are in the business, I would be interested in your criticisms of the article. Oh, I most definitely started scouting in the dark ages. How long have you been doing it?
How was I being selective about their stats?
What else do you want to consider besides SLG/OBP/Ks/BBs? Let’s just call it even then and say that that they both had relatively similar statistics this year — Blanks put up his numbers at a higher level, so I’d say at a pure statistical level his season was more impressive. And whether Mills was blocked or not, it doesn’t change the fact that he was playing at a lower level than Blanks while they were the same age (Blanks is a month younger).
Funny that you’re ragging on Blanks’ defense, when Mills’ defense has been long been in question as well. And for what it’s worth, there have been reports in multiple places this year about Blanks’ much improved defense at 1b, and there were even reports that he’s athletic enough that the organization was considering trying him in LF in order to get him and A-Gonz in the same lineup — something that Mills could never do because of his weak arm.
What concern? I just happen to believe that. in most cases, it
is a better projector of ML power advancement than slugging %. It does not have much to do with projection which is my main interest. Both are subject to variables but HR power is subject to fewer IMHO.
No, but I only feel qualified to opine on it
if I have seen it fall. Statistically speaking, did it fall or was it cut?
Retort
That’s a fantastic line. I’m going to steal it and perfectly sums up your argument.
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
I am not sure your enthusiasm for the remark
is shared by the other bloggers. But thanks!
So let me get it straight
If watch a tree for 50 days and think it looks great and sturdy. Then the next day it falls down. You are going to ignore that and say its great and sturdy? Because, statistically speaking if it was cut you were right. If it fell on its own, you are wrong.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
i give. whatever you said is cool because it is
way beyond me to see any point. so i will agree if it makes you happy!
Tyson Bagley
I am happy to see him on here, as I had some classes with him at Dallas Baptist University.
Nova and Worrell
I’m curious what everyone thinks the chances are of these two guys sticking in the bullpen for the Padres in 2009. Nova was a Rule V guy, so if he can’t hack it, no big deal, but Worrell they actually had to give up a decent piece to get (Khalil Greene) and it’d be a bummer if this guy doesn’t give them a decent return.
Andrew Parrino
John, Do you see anything for this kid in their system. Ok #’s at Fort Wayne last year
Jackson Quezada
What do you make of him? I think he has a decent shot at a bullpen career.
Question for John
John, where would Steve Garrison be if he wasn’t injured? Would that put him into the top 20? His peripherals have always just been okay but he’s been successful at every level.
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