Community Prospect List: #118
by King Billy Royal
on Jan 6, 2009 9:28 PM EST
36 comments
After 424 votes the winner of the poll is Henry Sosa with 17% of the vote. Jason Castro (117-6%), Michael Montgomery (117-2%), Kyle Drabek (117-3%), Dominic Brown (117-3%) be removed from the poll because they fell below the 7% cutoff. John Raynor, Juan Ramirez, David Hernandez, Jose Ceda, Sean West will be added to the poll. Also, when listing testers if you do not provide the first AND last names they will not be considered.
1. MATT WIETERS - C (Baltimore)
2. DAVID PRICE - SP (Tampa Bay)
3. JASON HEYWARD - OF (Atlanta)
4. TRAVIS SNIDER - OF (Toronto)
5. MADISON BUMGARNER - SP (San Francisco)
6. COLBY RASMUS - OF (St. Louis)
7. CAMERON MAYBIN - OF (Florida)
8. TREVOR CAHILL - SP (Oakland)
9. NEFTALI FELIZ - SP (Texas)
10. MATT LAPORTA - 1B/OF/DH (Cleveland)
11. MIKE MOUSTAKAS - 3B (Kansas City)
12. TIM ALDERSON - SP (San Francisco)
13. PEDRO ALVAREZ - 3B (Pittsburgh)
14. RICK PORCELLO - SP (Detroit)
15. DEXTER FOWLER - OF (Colorado)
16. BRETT ANDERSON - SP (Oakland)*
17. DEREK HOLLAND - SP (Texas)
18. ANDREW McCUTCHEN - OF (Pittsburgh)
19. BUSTER POSEY - C (San Francisco)
20. CHRIS TILLMAN - SP (Baltimore)
21. LARS ANDERSON - 1B (Boston)
22. JUSTIN SMOAK - 1B (Texas)
23. THOMAS HANSON - SP (Atlanta)
24. ELVIS ANDRUS - SS (Texas)
25. ANGEL VILLALONA - 1B (San Francisco)
26. JHOULYS CHACIN - SP (Colorado)
27. BRIAN MATUSZ - SP (Baltimore)
28. ERIC HOSMER - 1B (Kansas City)
29. TIM BECKHAM - SS (Tampa Bay)
30. MAX RAMIREZ - C/1B (Texas)
31. JARROD PARKER - SP (Arizona)
32. MICHAEL STANTON - OF (Florida)
33. MAT GAMEL - 3B (Milwaukee)
34. JESUS MONTERO - C (New York-AL)
35. BRETT WALLACE - 3B (St. Louis)
36. JORDAN SCHAFER - OF (Atlanta)
37. WADE DAVIS - SP (Tampa Bay)
38. LOGAN MORRISON - 1B (Florida)
39. CARLOS SANTANA - C (Cleveland)
40. FERNANDO MARTINEZ - OF (New York-NL)
41. JAMES McDONALD - SP (Los Angeles-NL)
42. JEREMY HELLICKSON - SP (Tampa Bay)
43. JOSH VITTERS - 3B (Chicago-NL)
44. YONDER ALONSO - 1B (Cincinnati)
45. TAYLOR TEAGARDEN - C (Texas)
46. FREDDIE FREEMAN - 1B (Atlanta)
47. GORDON BECKHAM - SS (Chicago-AL)
48. BRETT CECIL - SP (Toronto)
49. ALCIDES ESCOBAR - SS (Milwaukee)
50. JORDAN ZIMMERMANN - SP (Washington)
51. CHRIS CARTER - 1B/DH (Oakland)
52. CARLOS TRIUNFEL - SS (Seattle)
53. AUSTIN JACKSON - OF (New York-AL)
54. BEN REVERE - OF (Minnesota)
55. MICHAEL BOWDEN - SP (Boston)
56. TYLER FLOWERS - C (Atlanta)
57. ADRIAN CARDENAS - SS (Oakland)
58. REID BRIGNAC - SS (Tampa Bay)
59. JAKE ARRIETA - SP (Baltimore)
60. JORDAN WALDEN - SP (Los Angeles-AL)
61. MICHAEL MAIN - SP (Texas)
62. WILMER FLORES - SS (New York-NL)
63. MATT DOMINGUEZ - 3B (Florida)
64. MICHAEL SAUNDERS - OF (Seattle)
65. DESMOND JENNINGS - OF (Tampa Bay)
66. CARLOS CARRASCO - SP (Philadelphia)
67. AARON CUNNINGHAM - OF (Oakland)
68. J.P. ARENCIBIA - C (Toronto)
69. GIO GONZALEZ - SP (Oakland)
70. PHILLIPPE AUMONT - SP (Seattle)
71. JEFF SAMARDZIJA - SP/RP (Chicago-NL)
72. MICHAEL INOA - SP (Oakland)
73. AARON HICKS - OF (Minnesota)
74. JEREMY JEFFRESS - SP (Milwaukee)
75. ANGEL SALOME - C (Milwaukee)
76. DANIEL CORTES - SP (Kansas City)
77. GREG HALMAN - OF (Seattle)
78. JACOB McGEE - SP/RP (Tampa Bay)
79. KYLE BLANKS - 1B (San Diego)
80. MARTIN PEREZ - SP (Texas)
81. JULIO BORBON - OF (Texas)
82. NICHOLAS WEGLARZ - OF (Cleveland)
83. JAMES SIMMONS - SP (Oakland)
84. GORKYS HERNANDEZ - OF (Atlanta)
85. JOSE TABATA - OF (Pittsburgh)
86. JASON DONALD - SS (Philadelphia)
87. KYLE SKIPWORTH - C (Florida)
88. DARYL JONES - OF (St. Louis)
89. AARON POREDA - SP (Chicago-AL)
90. MICHAEL BURGESS - OF (Washington)
91. CHRIS PEREZ - RP (St. Louis)
92. NEFTALI SOTO - 3B (Cincinnati)
93. JONATHAN NIESE - SP (New York-NL)
94. TODD FRAZIER - SS/3B (Cincinnati)
95. ENGEL BELTRE - OF (Texas)
96. ADAM MILLER - SP (Cleveland)
97. VINCENT MAZZARO - SP (Oakland)
98. NICK ADENHART - SP (Los Angeles-AL)
99. BEAU MILLS - 1B (Cleveland)
100. CHRISTOPHER MARRERO - OF (Washington)
101. DELLIN BETANCES - SP (New York-AL)
102. IVAN DEJESUS - 2B (Los Angeles-NL)
103. HANK CONGER - (Los Angeles-AL)
104. COLE ROHRBOUGH - SP (Atlanta)
105. DANNY DUFFY - SP (Kansas City)
106. MATT MOORE - SP (Tampa Bay)
107. KILA KA'AIHUE - 1B (Kansas City)
108. NICK NOONAN - 2B (San Francisco)
109. SEAN DOOLITTLE - 1B (Oakland)
110. CHRIS COGHLAN - 2B (Florida)
111. JULIO TEHERAN - SP (Atlanta)
112. ETHAN MARTIN - SP (Los Angeles - NL)
113. BRETT LAWRIE - C (Millwaukee)
114. JEMILE WEEKS - 2B (Oakland)
115. ANDREW LAMBO - OF (Los Angeles - NL)
116. JEFF NIEMANN - SP (Tampa)
117. HENRY SOSA - SP (San Francisco)
CANDIDATES - Brad Holt, Michael Taylor, Rafael Rodriguez, Tim Melville, Scott Elbert, Matt Antonelli, Eric Hurley, John Raynor, Juan Ramirez, David Hernandez, Jose Ceda, Sean West
TESTERS - Jonathan Lucroy, Michael Almanzar, Adam Moore (110-2%), David Huff (112-4%), Wilson Ramos (112-2%), Shooter Hunt (112-2%), (112-2%), Cedric Hunter (113-2%), Luke Hughes (113-2%), Josh Reddick (114-4%), Brandon Erbe (114-5%), Ryan Tucker (114-3%), Nick Barnese (115-4%), Yorman Rodriguez (115-2%), Blake Beavan (115-4%), Zach McAllister (115-1%), Drew Stubbs (115-4%), Daniel Bard (116-5%), Will Inman (116-3%), Jefry Marte (116-2%), David Cooper (116-4%) , Jason Castro (117-6%), Michael Montgomery (117-2%), Kyle Drabek (117-3%), Dominic Brown (117-3%)
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TESTERS
Please put them under this thread:
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jan 7, 2009 12:16 AM EST
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Michael Almanzar
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on
Jan 7, 2009 12:47 AM EST
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Jonathan...
Lucroy
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on
Jan 7, 2009 2:08 AM EST
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+1
A noob or n00b is someone that lacks intellegance or common sense, most people think that noob is a word used only in the online gaming world, but in reality it is becoming an ever popular word with teenage society.
a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong
by cwhitman412 on
Jan 7, 2009 3:36 PM EST
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Dominic Brown
Seems appropriate since BA just named him the #1 Phillies prospect.
"Ninety percent I'll spend on good times, women and Irish Whiskey. The other ten percent I'll probably waste."
by strums on
Jan 7, 2009 7:49 AM EST
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He's already a tester
Was on the last poll.
by rhd on
Jan 7, 2009 11:05 AM EST
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Tester
Mark Melancon
http://yankeesmtom.blogspot.com/
by hallofamer2000 on
Jan 7, 2009 3:06 PM EST
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I have an interesting idea...
How about if we vote a few people OFF the list?
by slurve on
Jan 7, 2009 12:24 AM EST
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Nope
The list isn’t perfect but it is the first time in a few years that we have completed a top 100 list. Pinstripes and myself have put a lot of work in organizing the polls and I don’t intend to go back and selectively ‘edit’ them.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Jan 7, 2009 12:29 AM EST
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Michael Taylor
For what seems like the 15th straight poll.
by wolviex18 on
Jan 7, 2009 3:18 AM EST
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Explain to me
Why would you take Brad Holt over Scott Elbert?
by aCone419 on
Jan 7, 2009 10:35 AM EST
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Easy answer
Because Elbert has pitched like 200 innings . . .over the last 3 years.
Elbert’s got a good arm, but at this point there’s no reason to believe that he’s going to hold up under the strain of a starter’s workload.
by mrkupe on
Jan 7, 2009 12:12 PM EST
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He's only had one injury, right?
Durability is obviously a concern for any pitcher returning from injury, but I don’t see why Elbert stands out in that category. We’ve already put on a number of guys with various degrees of injury problems: Miller, Rohrbough, Betances, McGee (fairly similar to Elbert of a year ago in my opinion), Main, Teheran. The lack of IP is most a timing issue of the one injury, and a result of the Dodgers easing him back as a RP.
Anyway, I know Elbert’s weaknesses. There is a reason he isn’t a top 100 prospect at this point (for most). My question is why does that one demerit (reasonable high chance of move to RP), one that is not wholly alien to Holt and his one pitch I might add, outweigh all the ways he is clearly better (stuff/repetoire, performance, ARL). When Elbert was Holt’s age, he was already in AA putting up enormous K-rates. Seeing as he has made a successful return from injury, I am puzzled why people are so down on him and there’s no way I’d take Holt over him based on some innings in A-.
by aCone419 on
Jan 7, 2009 1:04 PM EST
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1 pitch?
While his fastball his by far his best pitch all reports say the new curve he started throwing in brooklyn looked good, his change up decent, and slider ok.
When I saw him he has a great fastball the hitters couldn’t handle it, the change was good he just left it up a little too much, and the slider has some nice break but the control wasnt there.
by Pelferized on
Jan 7, 2009 10:41 PM EST
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Obviously not literally one pitch
He has one major league pitch, at the moment. The rest of his arsenal lags, as your description even attests.
by aCone419 on
Jan 8, 2009 8:40 AM EST
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I know....
you didn’t literally mean 1 pitch, but both times I saw him it was early in the season so his curve wasn’t there yet and if anything he is a 2 pitch pitcher (fastball/slider) with a change and curve that are okay if he uses them every once in a while but i expect them to continue to get better at a rapid pace Holt seems like he knows how to “pitch”
by Pelferized on
Jan 8, 2009 6:39 PM EST
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Holt
doesn’t profile as a reliever yet, and the people who say he does are being a bit short-sighted about it. He combines terrific physicality with clean, repeatable mechanics, and he really maintains his velocity deep into games, having shown the ability on multiple occasions to stay around 92-94 mph beyond the 100 pitch mark. You don’t move an arm like that to the bullpen unless his performance forces you to, and nothing suggests thats imminent.
Holt has some tremendous upside and he’s shown an excellent development curve over the last year. He’s really filled out and saw his velo spike from 89-91 all the way to the 93-95 range in his last year at UNC. The problem is, he doesn’t have a very long track record, so the data is limited. Still, if he continues developing at the pace he’s been on for the last year and a half, he could quickly rise through a Mets system that loves promoting players aggressively. The key is going to be the curveball and to a lesser degree the changeup, but all reports indicated significant progress throughout his professional debut. Some reports even went so far as to say his curve improved with every start he made.
IMO, although theres still some bust potential given the lack of data, Holt has as much helium potential as any arm in the minors. He could ascend quickly next year, and his ceiling is at least a #2 starter if the curve becomes an above average pitch. If it becomes a true consistent out-pitch, #1 is not out of the question.
Elbert spent all of 2008 in the pen, and it seems that’s where he’ll likely stay given the fact that the Dodgers will already be relying very heavily on some of their younger starters. I still like him, but it seems his ceiling has been capped a bit lower than people were anticipating a year or two ago. Its hard to envision Elbert as a future closer, he seems more like a setup man to me, so if he stays in the pen, his value is fairly limited.
by Meddler on
Jan 8, 2009 2:36 AM EST
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Still not seeing it
The RP concerns over Holt are due to having only one good pitch at the moment. He’s working on others yadda yadda we get it; but he is what he is at the moment, and thus the concerns are not crazy.
A successful righty with a 60 FB, a couple other 45/50 pitches in A- at 21, with some mild reason for concern over velocity backslide or being a reliever down the line.
v.
A successful lefty with a 60 FB, 60 CB 45/50 CH in AA at 22, more likely to move to the bullpen due to circumstance.
If Elbert stays in the pen (not a forgone conclusion, but likely with the Dodgers backlog), he has all the stuff and mentality to be a closer. The only thing limiting him is Jonathan Broxton.
by aCone419 on
Jan 8, 2009 8:50 AM EST
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Sickels: Holt B, Elbert C+
John did say Elbert may be a notch too low, but still durability and command issues. But you raise some good points.
by wobatus on
Jan 8, 2009 12:04 PM EST
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Sure
John seems to think Elbert is more of a health concern than I do; that’s defensible. But I don’t think he is much more of a concern than most.
And I would really like to see Holt repeat his improvements next year before fully buying into them.
by aCone419 on
Jan 8, 2009 3:59 PM EST
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That
I can understand, but I still think he has considerable upside, and that viewing him as a future reliever is short-sighted. For Elbert, its all but a forgone conclusion, for Holt just isn’t in the cards whatsoever right now. He may have only one MLB pitch, but even given limited data, he’s shown tremendous improvement and durability. In his last start for UNC he threw 139 pitches and was clocked at 94mph in the 9th inning. Amateur, pro, lefty, righty, I don’t care, that’s very impressive and very promising. It speaks volumes about his mechanics and raw talent.
by Meddler on
Jan 10, 2009 4:50 PM EST
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There's more to consider than current arsenal
Holt is built on a big pitchers frame, and his improvements over the last year surprised no one in any way, aside from how quickly things came together for him. Elbert is smallish and has mechanical issues that lend to his durability concerns. Really, I don’t see them as far apart in value, but they’re so different its tough to compare. Elbert’s a smallish lefty with a polished arsenal but what appears to be a limited ceiling and Holt is a big physical righty with a great fastball (I haven’t seen a 20-80 # put on it, but everyone describes at as “plus plus” which suggests more than a 60 to me, more like a 70 or even a 75. Given that its 93-95 and touching 98 with excellent lateral movement, I think a 70 makes more sense than a 60) but a lack of command or a polished secondary pitch.
I also think we’re confusing his slider and curve here, from what I understand, he only really throws one breaking ball, and when thrown correctly its a a power downer in the 79-81 mph range. When he gasses it in the 80s and over throws it, it may read more like a small slider that lacks vertical movement, both to pitch f/x data and the naked eye, but its still the pitch that scouts describe as his “curveball” because that’s what he calls it. I don’t think he’s working on multiple breaking ball grips though, its one pitch that at times looks like more of a bad slider when thrown incorrectly, but looks like a quality power curve with more vertical movement than horizontal when thrown correctly.
by Meddler on
Jan 10, 2009 4:46 PM EST
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Melville
I like the upside and the scouting reports. Taylor just looks like a 4th OF to me.
by guru4u on
Jan 7, 2009 12:08 PM EST
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Taylor a 4th OF?
Based on what? I’d think you’d need to see more before making that assessment. Maybe he will end up that way, although there seems to be potential All-star upside as well.
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/10/28/648643/philadelphia-phillies-top
by wobatus on
Jan 7, 2009 12:27 PM EST
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Depressing
It’s sad Raynor gets on to be destroyed like this. Hopefully he’ll be back on soon.
A noob or n00b is someone that lacks intellegance or common sense, most people think that noob is a word used only in the online gaming world, but in reality it is becoming an ever popular word with teenage society.
a noob could be simply a level 100 running round shouting ‘’WTF DO I GO!?’’ or someone calling someone else a noob and then getting hit with a brick, anyone can call anyone a noob, but normally they are noobs themselves
-robert_d_wilfong
by cwhitman412 on
Jan 7, 2009 3:39 PM EST
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With some "B-" guys already on the list
I’ll throw out the two latest "B"s: Mat Latos and Jaff Decker. Although I think we have tested one or both already.
1-10-DEN 18 (9:52) (Shotgun) 6-J.Cutler pass short right intended for 19-E.Royal INTERCEPTED by 93-L.Castillo (95-S.Phillips) at DEN 18. 93-L.Castillo to DEN 14 for 4 yards (62-C.Wiegmann). 6-J.Cutler pouts ob to DEN 25 for 11 yards.
by Wonko on
Jan 7, 2009 8:35 PM EST
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Other Sickels' B's
As far as I can see, these are the B’s not on the list. I may have missed someone. BTW, there are B-‘s and C+’s on this thing now. Our list shouldn’t match John’s, but these guys should probably at least get testers.
Michael Pineda (Seattle)
Trevor Reckling (Anaheim)
Hector Rondon (Cleveland)
Reese Havens (New York – NL)
Christian Friedrich (Colorado)
Jon Lucroy (Milwaukee)
Chris Valaika (Cincinnati)
Ryan Westmoreland (Boston)
Ryan Flaherty (Chicago – NL)
Daniel Schlereth (Arizona)
Travis D’Arnaud (Philadelphia)
Craig Kimbrell (Atlanta)
Carlos Rosa (Kansas City)
Ryan Perry (Detroit)
Jaff Decker (San Diego)
Mat Latos (San Diego)
Kellen Kulbacki (San Diego)
by parish on
Jan 8, 2009 4:48 PM EST
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Testers...
Angel Morales (Best OF in GCL last year)
continue on with Wilson Ramos- he needs to stay on the voting option list!
Danny Valencia
Anthony Swarzak
Daniel Schlereth
Carlos Rosa
Michael McCardell
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on
Jan 8, 2009 6:47 PM EST
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Us v. Sickels
Based on John’s rough grades from his posting, we have the following:
Grade A : 4
Grade A-: 16
Grade B+: 40
Grade B : 69
Brade B- : 97
That means, if going straight by grades, no person who received a B- or lower should be on the top 129 players. So, who do we have on the list who is B- or lower:
Henry Sosa, Jeff Niemann, Julio Teheran, Chris Coghlan, Nick Noonan, Matt Moore, Dellin Betances, Jason Donald, Gorkys Hernandez, James Simmons, Nick Weglarz, Martin Perez, Jacob McGee, Michael Inoa, JP Arencibia,Michael Saunders, Reid Brignac, Vince Mazzaro, Nick Adenhart [20 players]
Therefore, with 117 players chosen, and 20 over John, we have 97/129 B or higher players on the board. To me, this just shows how varied player evaluation can be.
by thudean on
Jan 9, 2009 11:30 AM EST
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Interesting
That 4 over the “overranks” come from Tampa Bay.
by aCone419 on
Jan 9, 2009 1:59 PM EST
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