1B Rankings?
by rmarx01
on Jan 6, 2009 3:54 PM EST
70 comments
I just ran across this website comparing and predicting stats of Matt LaPorta, Mat Gamel, and Chris Davis at the MLB level. To me, the predictions and comparisons are absurd. So that you don't have to read the entire website, I have copy/pasted the the predictions of the players at the bottom of this post.
I am currently part of a 10-team Dynasty League looking to have one more year of "rebuilding", and then I'm going for the GOLD in 2010-2011. So the questions that I'm posing to you are these:
- How would you rank First Basemen (current and prospects), keeping the Dynasty League context in mind?
- Do you agree that the predictions below are absurd, considering that ONE player had more than 40 HRs this year (Ryan Howard) and this is predicting a 55 HR guy and a 49 HR guy with really high BAs, OBPs, and SLGs? If these numbers are all true, then depending on how long they are in the league, we have three HOF candidates. I just don't see that.
Matt LaPorta
Comparable Player: Lance Berkman
Early Projection: .285/.370/.540, 35 HR
Prime Projection: .315/.420/.625, 49 HR
What to watch for: While the Berkman comparison is legitimate, he also compares well to Travis Lee, who never really seemed to put it all together and retired with just 115 career home runs. I think LaPorta has a better chance of being a Berkman (or maybe Pat Burrell with more power) type hitter, but his strikeout rates could dictate how successful he is.
Mat Gamel
Comparable Player: Corey Hart, Chase Utley
Early Projection: .290/.340/.480, 24 HR
Prime Projection: .330/.400/.550, 34 HR
What to watch for: Gamel's power numbers have usually been low, with lots of doubles, mixed with a good OBP. His slugging percentage in 2008 seems abnormally high, and his top-end home run potential will probably sit in the mid-30's. His recent power surge could be a sign of a sustained improvement in the power department, but I think it's mostly a product of his age combined with a good surrounding cast at AA.
Chris Davis
Comparable Player: David Ortiz, Mark Reynolds
Early Projection: .275/.355/.478, 38 HR
Prime Projection: .318/.420/.645, 55 HR
What to watch for: Davis has all the power necessary to be a successful major league player, and the Rangers seem eager to get him through their system. He has demonstrated that he can adjust to higher levels of play quickly, and his adjustments at the plate have helped him keep his K% steady at every level. His increasing LD% has helped keep his average up near .300 and there's no reason he can't do the same in the MLB.
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Laporta
Is closer to Burrell than Berkman in my opinion. I just dont see Laporta matching Big Puma’s ability to hit for a high avg. Laporta’s power is for real though and comparable.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 4:05 PM EST
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I will have a 1B list for you shortly...
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 4:06 PM EST
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holy crap
those prime predictions are waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay to optimistic.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Jan 6, 2009 4:50 PM EST
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Uhm....
I could see having one or two seasons like his prime, but his early prediction OBP is a little low in my mind. Thats neither here nor there, its the only one thats close. Maybe a .285/.350/.450 early prediction for him with 18-22 HR (think Corey Koskie without the defense) and a peak of .315/.385/.500 with 27-32 HR type of peak (think Mike Sweeney)
How will Davis hit 38 HR and only a .478 slg? There is little fact based in these predictions I gander. I think its reasonable to expect 28 HR .265/.330/.475 as and “early” for Davis with 40 HR .280/.355/.525 type of peak
LaPorta prediction is just ridiculous. Maybe a .270/.350/.470 early prediction with 22-25 HR for LaPorta with the upside/peak of a .295/.380/.520 peak with 32-38 HR.
In terms of ranking 1B
1) Albert Pujols
2) Miguel Cabrera
3) Mark Teixera
4) Ryan Howard
5) Lance Berkman
6) Adrian Gonzalez
7) Justin Morneau
8) Prince Fielder
9) Chris Davis
10) Kevin Youkilis
11) Carlos Pena
12) Joey Votto
13) James Loney
if guys like Gordon don’t count then this is where it starts to get incredibly subjective so I’ll stop.
by Navi's_Navy on
Jan 6, 2009 6:04 PM EST
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mostly agree
I like your list, and I mostly agree with it, but I may drop Prince a spot or 2, and move Youkilis up a spot or 2. I like it, though!
by rmarx01 on
Jan 6, 2009 6:17 PM EST
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I’d take Youkilis over Howard…actually I’d take Berkman and probably Gonzalez over Howard.
by jfish26101 on
Jan 7, 2009 12:08 AM EST
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Top 10 MLB 1B Keepers
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Mark Teixeira
4. Justin Morneau
5. Prince Fielder
6. Ryan Howard
7. Lance Berkman
8. Adrian Gonzalez
9. Joey Votto
10. Kevin Youkilis
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 7:17 PM EST
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I don't think it's that big of a leap.
Votto is going to be 25, Youk is going to be 30. Both are very good, but I’d bet on Votto being better over the next few years.
Tools Whore
Sign Bonds!
by Tyler on
Jan 6, 2009 11:04 PM EST
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Stretch
Votto will indeed be good, The problem here will be the line-up around him limiting his numbers. The supporting cast just isn’t all that deep.
Youk on the other hand has the line-up support for higher rbi & runs.
Ripken.....thanks for the memories...
by bodyiq on
Jan 7, 2009 2:03 PM EST
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So this thread is supposed to be about fantasy value not actual contribution to winning on the field? If that is the case, I may understand why Youk is so low but if it’s about actual contributions on the field to a team winning then Youkilis is very underrated in this thread and perhaps on this board in my opinion.
by jfish26101 on
Jan 7, 2009 2:06 PM EST
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fantasy only
You are correct – this is looking at DYNASTY FANTASY value only. In other words, not for only 2009, but into the near future too.
by rmarx01 on
Jan 7, 2009 2:16 PM EST
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That is the problem with traditional fantasy baseball, what is valuable there is often or at least can be different than what actually is valuable. I have Youkilis in a 30 team DMB sim league that runs off projections and am extremely happy with Youkilis at 1B or 3B. Going back to the list that this particular string of replies is off of, I’d still put him above everyone but Pujols, Teixeira, Cabrera and Berkman. Depending on contract numbers, maybe I’d have Votto or Gonzalez above him but I dunno.
Of course my league takes into account park factors, defense, etc so, again, what traditional fantasy value is isn’t necessarily the same. Good luck though, I at least understand a little bit better now.
by jfish26101 on
Jan 7, 2009 2:38 PM EST
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yeah
what about that park votto plays in? he is about to put together five excellent seasons, by the way…
by richieabernathy on
Jan 7, 2009 2:54 PM EST
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As opposed to already doing so and still improving? Look I like Votto but I’d take Youkilis over him all day every day. Chances are Votto is moved to LF when Alonso is ready (2 years?) anyhow, Youkilis will likely end up on 3B when Lars is up which actually improves his value. I just think a lot of people here are drastically underrating Youkilis who has consistently produced for several years now. His line is .289/.385/.472/.857 and his OPS has improved every single year:
2004 = .780
2005 = .805
2006 = .810
2007 = .843
2008 = .958
He is in a hitters park himself, in a nasty lineup and it isn’t like he is old (30). Sure the power may go down but it isn’t outside of the realm of possibilities that he simply improved. He sacrificed a bit of his OBP/BA for more power and you can see it in his stats. If he was simply more aggressive at the plate, it’s certainly justifiable that his season was valid and able to be duplicated.
by jfish26101 on
Jan 7, 2009 3:05 PM EST
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Top 10 Minors 1B Keepers
1. Justin Smoak
2. Lars Anderson
3. Frederick Freeman
4. Yonder Alonso
5. Angel Villalona
6. Logan Morrison
7. Eric Hosmer
8. Beau Mills
9. David Cooper
10. Kyle Blanks
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 7:18 PM EST
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huh?
LaPorta, Gamel and Davis aren’t even in your Minors Top 10? I completely disagree with that. LaPorta at least has to be in the top 3
by rmarx01 on
Jan 6, 2009 7:57 PM EST
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RE: LaPorta & Gamel
I see them as LFs.
Chris Davis is no longer minor league eligible (295 mlb ABs).
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 8:01 PM EST
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ok
I’m hoping that LaPorta and Gamel get called up as 1Bs and play a little there so that they at least become eligible at 1B. I understand that Davis isn’t technical minor-league eligible, but I’m curious where you see him fitting in with your minor-league list.
I’m asking because I honestly don’t know much (anything?) about Davis.
by rmarx01 on
Jan 6, 2009 8:12 PM EST
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Davis
30-40 HR player with a batting average anywhere from .260-.280.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 8:43 PM EST
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I really think people are overrating Chris Davis's ability to hit for AVG
Its an issue. I see lower batting AVGs for him.
by alskor on
Jan 7, 2009 1:02 AM EST
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Agreed
I think Davis is in for a big sophmore slump next season…he strikes out way to often, and he can’t hit power pitching…MLB pitching staffs and coaches will find and expose his short comings. He’ll hit 25-30 hr’s and drive in 75-85, but I see a low average and mediocre OBP for 2009.
"Yesterday Is History, Tomorrow Is A Mystery, Today Is A Gift...That's Why We Call It The Present." Master Oogway (Kung Foo Panda)
by Kenner's Corner on
Jan 7, 2009 2:20 PM EST
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"he can’t hit power pitching" What makes you say that?
by Kinslerhomer on
Jan 7, 2009 3:12 PM EST
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The Numbers...
Avg OBP SLG
vs. Power Pitchers .216 .281 .307 (96 PA)
vs. Finesse Pitchers .341 .376 .675 (88 PA)
vs. Avg P/F Pitchers .272 .318 .617 (133 PA)
That is a HUGE difference…can’t he hit a good fastball.
"Yesterday Is History, Tomorrow Is A Mystery, Today Is A Gift...That's Why We Call It The Present." Master Oogway (Kung Foo Panda)
by Kenner's Corner on
Jan 7, 2009 3:46 PM EST
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Uh...
A. 96 PA isn’t enough of a sample to determine ANYTHING.
B. These numbers already show him mashing in the majors, while struggling against “power pitchers”—for him to experience a sophomore slump, he’ll have to drop off in one of these three areas. Are you trying to argue he’ll get WORSE vs. power pitchers?
C. Are you trying to suggest Chris Davis doesn’t have the bat speed to hit a good fastball?
by DrunkIrish on
Jan 7, 2009 5:03 PM EST
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His contact has always been at issue
He strikes out A LOT.
He struck out a lot all through the minors and in his MLB stint this he struck out a whopping 88 times in 295 ABs (29.8%).
There are major question marks about his ability to make contact. Its hard to strike out 25-30% of the time and hit for a decent average.
by alskor on
Jan 7, 2009 7:57 PM EST
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A, B, C
A] 100 AB’s is enough for me to see a problem here…a SLG of .307 against good fastballs is a concern for a so called “Masher”. I mean if it was like .400 it wouldn’t jump out at ya so much, but this is a pretty bad percentage considering it was 1/3 of his AB’s
B] I sure hope he doesn’t get “worse” against Power Pitchers, I’m not even sure that’s possible, but I do think teams will challenge him with fastballs more and bring in appropriate pen arms to contain his abilities.
C] Bat speed is only part of the equation, batting eye and pitch recognition are others. You can swing as hard as you want, but if your missing the ball to the tune of a 30% K rate…I would be a little concerned.
That said, if he works on it, and adjusts…he has the potential to be a bonifide masher!!! I just want to see it first before I start stirring the Chris Davis KoolAid.
"Yesterday Is History, Tomorrow Is A Mystery, Today Is A Gift...That's Why We Call It The Present." Master Oogway (Kung Foo Panda)
by Kenner's Corner on
Jan 7, 2009 8:58 PM EST
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RE: Davis
Will be 3B for the Rangers since Blalock was moved to 1B.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 8:11 PM EST
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No, Davis will start at first and Blalock will DH with Metcalf or Duran playing third.
by Kinslerhomer on
Jan 6, 2009 8:43 PM EST
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In that case...
I’d bump Youkilis off my list and put Davis at #9 and Votto at #10.
I’m sorry folks, I’m just not a huge believer in Youk to repeat.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 8:45 PM EST
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Even if he doesn’t, his glove and eye in the box are well above average without 1B type power.
by jfish26101 on
Jan 7, 2009 12:10 AM EST
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Everything Villalona does Hosmer does better....
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
by doublestix on
Jan 6, 2009 8:00 PM EST
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It's possible
I am anxious to see Hosmer debut.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
by Dewey Finn on
Jan 6, 2009 8:02 PM EST
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Freeman over Alonso/Villalona/Hosmer?
Do you really see Freeman doing that much? I’ve heard good things about him, but am I the only one who thinks those are a bit lofty projections, or is he really that good?
by fuzzy14eva on
Jan 7, 2009 2:14 AM EST
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To be fair,
Freeman is the only guy from that group that’s proven anything in the minors so far. He’s only a month older than Hosmer and less than a year older than Villalona, but he already posted a .316/.378/.521 with 18 HR playing his home games in a stadium that limits HRs pretty severely. Its tough to compare any of the other 3 to Alonso as he’s considerably older with a great college pedigree. I don’t think its a stretch to rank Freeman over the other 3.
by nixa37 on
Jan 7, 2009 3:23 AM EST
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How good can Chris Davis really become?
Personally, I never envision him hitting 50+ homers, Also I’m not so sure I see him playing 3B for the remainder of his career.
But In 2009 I could see Davis hit 30-35 homers with a 275/320/470 line
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on
Jan 6, 2009 8:22 PM EST
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Davis projection
Ron Shandler of baseballhq projects Dvais at 36 bombs and a .340/.550 line in 2009.
by wolviex18 on
Jan 7, 2009 3:25 AM EST
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well
that’s another website I will never trust for anything that matters
by IHateMitchMustain on
Jan 8, 2009 12:19 AM EST
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Haha
The book McKamey puts out under the umbrella of that site is actually very very good.
by jfish26101 on
Jan 8, 2009 2:06 AM EST
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Youk
Why is everybody so low on Youk? He was a top 25 PLAYER (not even just 1B) last year.
by rmarx01 on
Jan 6, 2009 8:26 PM EST
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Simple really...
He will turn 30 before opening day and his SLG last season was 116 points higher than his previous career high. He should continue to post an excellent OBP, but I have some doubts if he’ll ever SLG over .500 again.
by nixa37 on
Jan 7, 2009 12:05 AM EST
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mmm
i agree that dewey that laporta is not gonna hit for high avg. i seem him as sort of a burrell/dunn type. typical batting avg of around .250-.270, with a shot to hit .280-.290, along with 30+ hrs every yr and maybe a shot at 45+ during his prime.
my comp for gamel might be blalock give or take a bit. if i remember correctly, his tremendous first half was in part because of a ridiculous babip (i might be wrong, but this is what i remember reading). i think at his peak he might touch 25hrs, and will hit .280+
davis is interesting. i’m not quite sure who to compare him with yet. more power than laporta, but not sure how his batting average will end up. maybe ryan howard?
by bk11 on
Jan 6, 2009 8:27 PM EST
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Re mmm
interesting comps. I like the Davis/Howard comp, but I think Davis will have slightly fewer HRs and a slightly higher AVG. I see LaPorta as more of a Burrell than a Dunn. I think Gamel will be better than Blalock, though, unless you’re talking 2003 or 2004 Blalock.
by rmarx01 on
Jan 6, 2009 8:33 PM EST
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LaPorta
See him putting up similar numbers as Greg Vaughn.
by BBFan1 on
Jan 7, 2009 10:58 AM EST
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Which Greg Vaughn?
Steroids Greg Vaughn (e.g. 1998-1999) or regular Greg Vaughn? BIG difference!
by rmarx01 on
Jan 7, 2009 11:13 AM EST
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All of Greg Vaughn
Can be up-and-down performer, depending on health and ability to make contact.
In a healthy year, probably hits 25-30 home runs with a couple of big home run seasons [35 or more].
OK on-base percentage, but number is always depressed by supbar batting average.
by BBFan1 on
Jan 7, 2009 5:28 PM EST
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Callis' 1B rankings
When I put together my personal Top 50 Prospects list for inclusion in the 2009 Prospect Handbook, I listed six first basemen, including four in the Top 20: Hosmer at No. 12, Anderson at No. 13, the Marlins’ Logan Morrison at No. 14 and Smoak at No. 19. (By comparison, Anderson was my highest-rated first baseman the previous year, checking in at No. 29.) The other two were the Giants’ Angel Villalona at No. 32 and Alonso at No. 39.
Hosmer is significantly better than Villalona in Callis’ personal rankings, and I agree. I also think Dewey underrates Morrison, who is every bit the prospect of any other 1B prospect. There’s no way I take Freeman, Villalona or Alonso above him.
by guru4u on
Jan 7, 2009 11:51 AM EST
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Why?
I mean I guess I could understand Morrison over Villalona or Alonso because of the lack of a minor league track record for the two, but what would make you take him over Freeman? Freeman was a level lower, but he’s also over 2 years younger than Morrison and his numbers were every bit as impressive for his level, if not more so. I’m not disagreeing as much as looking for the reasoning behind your opinion.
by nixa37 on
Jan 7, 2009 12:17 PM EST
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Morrison
What he accompished in the FSL this year was extremely impressive. His home park suppresses HRs quite a bit, so I think he stands to hit for more power than his raw numbers showed. Morrison also put the smackdown on the Arizona Fall League this year to a .404/.444/.667 tune. Plus, scouting reports from every single analyst that has seen him play are positively glowing — sweet swing, great work ethic, the whole nine. Freeman has the potential for more power at the major league level, but Morrison has a much higher floor, a similar ceiling, and may be ready to hit in the big leagues as soon as next year.
by jibs on
Jan 7, 2009 7:42 PM EST
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And...
what Freeman showed in the SAL was every bit as impressive as what Morrison showed in the FSL. Freeman’s home park actually does more to suppress power than does Morrison’s, and he posted far better power numbers anyway, even though he was 2 years younger. The scouting reports for Freeman are pretty glowing as well.
What specifically makes you think that Morrison’s floor is much higher than Freeman’s? I’d agree with you if Morrison had already passed the AA test, but he was still only one level above Freeman. I guess you could make an argument on the basis of his AFL performance, but its a hitters league where many less than stellar prospects have posted huge numbers. Seriously, Flowers posted better A+ numbers than Morrison and better AFL numbers.
More than anything, I’m trying to understand this love affair with Morrison. I see a solid 1B prospect that looks less impressive with a cursory look than do many of the other guys. Maybe I’m missing something big, but I’m not exactly sure what it is.
by nixa37 on
Jan 7, 2009 11:07 PM EST
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I guess for me it's the scouting reports
I’ve yet to see a single analyst that doesn’t see Morrison as a big league player in the near future, whereas I have seen some say that Freeman may need some swing refinements in order to have his success translate as he moves up the chain.
by jibs on
Jan 7, 2009 11:20 PM EST
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scouting reports
might not be the end all be all, but you cannot just look at stats and think that tells the story, that would obviously be the difference in callis’ rankings, which i think are pretty fair from most of the things I have seen all over the place
by IHateMitchMustain on
Jan 8, 2009 12:22 AM EST
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Check out the thread I posted below
I’m trying to understand this love affair with Morrison. I see a solid 1B prospect that looks less impressive with a cursory look than do many of the other guys
I would argue you are missing something if you do not think Morrison ranks with the other elite guys. He had one amazingly impressive season given context.
by guru4u on
Jan 8, 2009 9:24 AM EST
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Freeman
Freeman is no doubt very impressive. But he kinda came out of nowhere in 2008, so I need to see prolonged success before getting too giddy over him.
I noticed you took issue with saying Morrison is better than Freeman – do you feel the same way then about Lars? Honestly, I do not see a “clear cut” best 1B prospect in the minors right now. One can make a very good argument for Lars, Morrison, Hosmer or Smoak as being the #1 guy. And if Freeman continues his 2008 success into 2009, I would place him in that group as well.
Check this thread out for a comparison of Lars vs. Morrison:
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/18/696568/prospect-smackdown-lars-an
Feel free to incorporate Freeman into the discussion if you’d like. Smoak and Hosmer would be a bit more difficult since neither has posted much of a pro career yet.
by guru4u on
Jan 8, 2009 9:22 AM EST
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One other thing on Freeman
His stats were posted in low A ball, while Morrison did it in High A and Lars in a combo of high A/AA. Low A to high A is a big jump for a prospect.
by guru4u on
Jan 8, 2009 9:26 AM EST
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I wasn't taking issue with Morrison over Freeman
As much as I was trying to understand what separates the two in some people’s minds. I think Anderson is a level ahead because his numbers are a little better and he already made the jump to AA with great success.
I think its a bit unfair to say Freeman came out of nowhere last year though. He was a 2nd round pick in 2007, and while he struggled in the GCL, he was just 17 the entire time he was there. Just because he didn’t have things figured out immediately in his pro debut as a 17 year old doesn’t mean he came out of nowhere.
As for the low A v. high A argument, I acknowledged that fact and there certainly is a difference. At the same time though, Freeman is over 2 years younger than Morrison and he just posted far, far better numbers than Morrison did as a 19 year old in low A.
by nixa37 on
Jan 8, 2009 12:18 PM EST
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Say
Any extra comments from Callis on Villalona?
Adoptive parental unit of Kevin " 2007's Most Spectacular Pitcher" Pucetas.
"I'm a Giant now... I like watching the ball get up there" - Wendell Fairley
"I'm really proud to be on this team." - Nate Schierholtz
"Woo hoo" - Tim "The Kid" Lincecum
by obsessivegiantscompulsive on
Jan 7, 2009 8:01 PM EST
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Anyone else?
Anyone else worried by Angel Villalona’s 118/18 K/BB ratio? You know, the one that didn’t improve as his season went along?
by sharksrog on
Jan 8, 2009 5:56 PM EST
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He's still young
but considering his defensive liabilites he’s firmly in my “overrated” category.
Promising young prospect… but people got WAY ahead of themselves on him.
by alskor on
Jan 8, 2009 6:49 PM EST
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Chris Carter (of Oakland)
I know his position is in doubt but assuming he develops as a 1B where would he fit in on the list of keeper 1Bs? Does he have 40HR potential in his prime?
by bunner on
Jan 8, 2009 9:09 AM EST
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Actually
I see a lot of Chris Davis in Chris Carter. Both can mash, but both have contact issues. That being said, Davis has proven he can mash big league pitching. Carter has proven he can mash high-A pitching. The contact rate is enough to have some concerns over him.
That being said, if I take Dewey’s list, I think I would slot Carter at #8 for minor league 1B. I would take Carter over Mills, Cooper and Blanks, but there are clearly 7 other minor league 1B better than Carter is right now.
by guru4u on
Jan 8, 2009 9:17 AM EST
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