Trevor Cahill > Brandon Webb?
by Dewey Finn on Jan 4, 2009 6:47 PM EST
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PrintIt's no secret that I am a HUGE Trevor Cahill fan. I've compared his upside to that of Brandon Webb in the past. However, I now feel that he could be even better than Webb. They are very similar pitchers who use the same repertoire (sinking fastball, curve, change). Webb's career GB% is 64.3, Cahill's 2008 GB% was 62. The difference that I see is that Cahill's stuff is better in comparison to Webb. Webb's avg fastball velocity over his major league career is 88.1 mph. Unfortunately, I dont have an exact record of Cahill's avg fastball velocity, although various scouting reports indicate that his hard sinking fastball sits in the low 90s and can touch mid 90s occaisonally. Furthermore, his curveball (knuckle curve) is a true out pitch and is better than Webb's hook. Although Webb's changeup is currently better, Cahill has developed his in becoming a very good (above average pitch). If he continues to work on it, it may become a plus pitch. From a physical standpoint, Cahill and Webb have similar builds (6'3, 210 & 6'2, 220 respectively). Do I think Cahill will immediately start putting up Webb-like numbers upon promotion to the majors? Certainly not. However, Cahill is much further along in his development at a younger age with better stuff and performance. The only thing lacking for Cahill is command/ control. In my opinion, this issue is blown out of proportion. Cahill tries to make hitters chase, not because he can't consistently locate. Anyways, Brandon Webb also had command/control issues early on in his career.
Lets look at their minor league numbers for A-, A+, AA:
Webb (age 21) Low A - 3.24 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 4.9 BB/9
Cahill (age 19) Low A - 2.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
Webb (age 22) High A - 3.99 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.8 K/9, 2.4 BB/9
Cahill (age 20) High A - 2.78 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
Webb (age 23) Double A - 3.14 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9
Cahill (age 20) Double A - 2.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9
Career MiLB Stats:
Webb - 357.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9
Cahill - 238.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9
In my opinion, Trevor Cahill matches up extremely well to Brandon Webb. Needless to say, I can't wait for Cahill's promotion to the big club. With a great defense and pitcher friendly home park, I think he can put up impressive numbers almost immediately and eventually put up Webb-like stats (with the potential for even better).
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People develop differently
in every aspect of life, just because one’s numbers are better at the same age really doesn’t mean anything at all. You know how many prospects have [had] better numbers than the career minor league numbers of Brandon Webb, even pitchers with similar styles? A ton. If prospecting was easy enough to compare major leaguer’s numbers at the minor league level with current prospects, it would be an exact science. It doesn’t work.
Webb
He was one of those guys that got by prospect evaluators. He also had three years taken way by the University of Kentucky. Danny Haren is another guy that kind of slipped through the cracks.
Webb is a lofty comparison
I understand the similarities in there repertoire but I think there is a big difference between dominating Low minors hitters with a sinking fastball and dominating MLB hitters. I know this difference is present for every prospect but I think it especially big for sinkerballers. Most MLB players feast on fastballs, so the skill that a righty can conistently get such poor contact on a ~90 MPH fastball like Webb is something I am reluctant to bestow on a prospect.
That said I think the bit of extra zip on the fastball and the quality of Cahill’s knuckle-curve mean that he will K enough guys that his GB rate won’t have to be as good as Webb’s for him to be a very good MLB pitcher.
Yeah, webb was never considered a top prospect
I have never seen a sinker move the way I see Webbs move, part of his growing pains in his 2nd year in the majors was figuring out how to throw it for strikes.
Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics
Nope.
He does have similarities to Webb in that both of them are sinkerballers with good breaking pitches. But Webb’s sinker grades out even higher and his command of the pitch is damned near uncanny. Webb also has a nice changeup, which is something that Cahill has the potential to duplicate but is by no means a given yet.
Cahill has a couple of small advantages . . .his velocity is probably a little better and his curve (while still a rather unpolished weapon) has a shot at being plus-plus. But there’s a lot of projection you still have to do with him, and trying to project him into a pitcher who is Brandon Webb’s equal or superior seems like a stretch.
If he’s successful, as I’ve noted before on here, I think he’ll end up being rather similar to Webb. But that might end up meaning that he’s a No. 2 or 3 starter rather than a perennial Cy Young candidate.
Of course
Stuff does not determine the quality of a major league pitcher. Greg Maddux’s and Tom Glavine’s stuff besides their change ups, graded out as average their entire careers. While guys like Kip Wells and Jamie Wright both have above average arsenals, but have flamed out.
An ace has to have the mental part of his game perfected before, he can truly become an ace.
Brandon Webb
is way too good to be worse than Cahill
not really
http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/12/baseballs-most-valuable-pitchers-2006-2008/
He’s finished 1st, 2nd, and 2nd in the Cy Young voting the past three years, but people still seem to be underrating him. No pitcher is a better bet to give you 230 IP in the 140-155 ERA+ range.
That sound you just heard
… was Dewey’s posts hitting a new low.
No, Trevor Cahill is not better than Brandon Webb. As much as we love the art of prospecting here, there are cases where minor league stats don’t mean shit, and I’d imagine that Webb’s is one of those cases. When Trevor Cahill starts dominating in the major leagues, then you can call me. Until then, be prepared to be called out by the masses for moronic shit such as this.
Also, I’m 85% sure that this post could be classified as trolling.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jan 4, 2009 9:45 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Just to further clarify
When I say that Dewey’s post is essentially trolling, here’s what I mean.
1.) Dewey has to be aware that the majority of people here think he has no idea what he’s talking about (and if he is not aware of that, he is incredibly naive).
2.) It is a fact that Dewey IS aware of the ridiculous, pointless rec-ing bandwagon that follows him around, as he’s proven in comments elsewhere.
So, when Dewey starts a thread with a title along the lines of “OMG, JASON NEIGHBORGALL YOU GUYZ, BETTA THAN NOLAN RYAN?!??/?” with a body pointing out meaningless, unrelated stats and saying “SIMILAR? PERHAPS.”, further proving the basis of event 1, that he HAS to know that event 2 will occur. It’s f—-in’ common sense.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jan 4, 2009 9:54 PM EST up reply actions
I think he just has 3 accounts, and recs all his posts right after he makes them to get them up there.
facepalm.jpg
you are the recs
mystery solved everyone!
(Before you call people ignorant, the word you are looking for is “where”.)
+1
I pointed this out to Dewey last week, more less saying that continuing these were nothing less than asking for it.
And you need to grow up. He is posting threads for discussion on a…wait for it…wait for it…DISCUSSION BOARD. The post you +1’d is completely off base and everyone who continues to walk around the website as if it was your own and say what can and can’t be posted are simply ridiculous. Dewey isn’t being rude, he isn’t being hateful, he isn’t doing anything wrong. Perhaps you should place your hatred on the people who keep rec’ing his threads if you dislike them so much or simply not read them.
Can some of you atleast...
Put your hatred for me aside and open your eyes to the fact that I am trying to make a logical argument that Trevor Cahill has the POTENTIAL to be a great pitcher. Perhaps even better than Brandon Webb.
I find it very irksome that you guys go on the offensive against me without even reading what I have to say. You see the name ‘Dewey Finn’ immediately attack. How am I ‘trolling’? How am I ‘asking for it’? This is just ridiculous.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Hmmm
Are you Bravesin’s evil twin brother?
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 4, 2009 11:11 PM EST up reply actions
You just can't project someone to be that good
When Sickels compared Wieters to a Piazza-Mauer hybrid, he didn’t say he’s likely to be a better player than those two guys’ strengths combined. Webb is a hall of fame caliber pitcher, and has been a uniquely excellent pitcher over the last few years. You can’t project a guy to be better than that when he’s only a prospect.
Also, statistical analysis of the two guys side by side simply doesn’t work. Webb has a legendarily odd development path, where his minor league performance wasn’t particularly good.
they get kinda mad
cause that’s a pretty silly comparison. Prospect vs. Cy Young winner…hmmmmm…who wins that battle…. Anywho, you make pointless comparisons like that all the time, and they get kinda annoyed at all the fanposts you make out of them. Sometimes it seems like youre specifically trying to get people to read your threads and provoke pissed off reactions, like that time you made that thread about Colby Rasmus sucking.
What out....
you’re now a marked man – the philanthropist brigade / trolling definition police may come after you!
I REPENT! I REPENT!
COLBY RASMUS SUCKS!!! IM SORRY! IM SORRY!
-1
Brandon Webb is a fair comparison for evaluation purposes, but not many pitchers live up to Webb’s last 3 years or his potential future.
But somebody probably will
I’m not arguing that it will be (or won’t be, for that matter) Trevor Cahill, but though Brandon Webb is an outstanding pitcher, it isn’t like he’s unprecedented or unrepeatable. I think we’ve learned too well the lesson about how difficult it is to predict any precise player to be a superstar, and forgotten that there will be a few superstars who are currently prospects. If most players don’t develop to their 100% scenarios, some will.
Consider this: in the last 20 years, we’ve had a number of players who will probably be considered amongst the historical greats. On the pitching side, Maddux, Clemens (overlooking steroids for the moment), Randy Johnson, and Pedro will all be discussed as perhaps the greatest pitchers in history. On the hitting side, Ken Griffey Jr. was one of the best CFs, and Barry Bonds was a little better, even before Griffey got injured every day and Bonds started taking more steroids than god. Mike Piazza was the greatest hitting catcher in history, and A-Rod and almost certainly Pujols will be discussed as amongst the greatest players not named Ruth. Though a number of these players were massive prospects, for none of them – none of them – was this their 50% result. For some, it was their 150% result.
It’s possible that the last twenty years were exceptional but I suspect not. It’s too early to say, but Hanley Ramirez and David Wright and Miguel Cabrera already look like potentially great players. Of course if you predict a player will be an historical great, you’ll look foolish very many more times than not, but consider this: what if you had said in 1986 that you think Greg Maddux will one day be considered one of the greatest pitchers of all time?
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by OldProspects on Jan 5, 2009 10:53 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Last time I checked...
Nobody else was posting anything nearly as interesting or thought provoking as DF. Everyone needs to calm the F down. If you disagree with what the post is saying, say “I disagree because of XYZ”. Don’t attack people personally. Grow up.
+1
Back off the guy… At least he’s trying to start worthwhile discussions even if this one is a bit absurd. Everyone enjoyed Dewey’s lists when he was making them and he contributes on a regular basis and puts time and thought into his posts, that’s more than I can say for most of you.
Ah
The inevitable backlash against the backlash much like the hysteria over the insidious Friends theme song ….
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 5, 2009 5:24 PM EST up reply actions
Why is it you only seem to pop up in flame wars?
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 5, 2009 9:27 PM EST up reply actions
If Cahill > Webb
i’ll be shocked. But he’s got a chance because of his stuff. All prospects have the chance to reach their potential, that’s why/how john makes his living. If it were possible to determine with 100% accuracy how good a prospect will eventually be, a lot of people would be out of work.
You can reasonably say that Webb is Cahill's upside
But projecting any player to be a Cy Young winner is wishcasting.
How about projecting the Cy Young award to be named after someone else in a few years? Those silly Giants’ fans. :D
To Dewey's defense
I appreciate that Dewey just doen’t follow along with the consensus in ranking his players. He has his own mind on many prospects is isnt afrad to share his feelngs. I disagree with much of what he says, but I also agree with many of his opinions that fly in the face of this site’s convential wisdom. Thats one of the great things about prospecting, nobody views every player exactly the same.
More importantly, Dewey seems to be respectful of other posters, even when those posters take personnal shots at him.
Cahill
How many Cy Youngs? 3? 4?
Cahill is going to be a first ballot hall of famer. He will receive 100% of the vote.
His sinker can strike out Chuck Norris.
I'll warm up with you anytime
Bullshit
Nothing can strike out Chuck Norris except Chuck Norris taking three pitches because he’s bored with hitting.
by thejd44 on Jan 5, 2009 4:04 AM EST up reply actions
impossible
nobody is stupid enough to throw something in chuck norris’s general direction for fear that he will throw it back straight through their face!
Or hit it straight back
Or am I thinking of Albert Pujols?
by David Tokarz on Jan 5, 2009 12:42 PM EST up reply actions
Cahill
He is probably a better prospect then Webb was in this stage of their careers and ages, but what Webb did after he hit the big leagues is remarkable and not easily duplicated. You could argue that Jhoulys Chacin has similar stats to Cahill off the top of my head, including extreme ground ball tendencies, but I wouldn’t go putting him above Webb either. Webb is an every year Cy Young Award candidate. In the major leagues already. Doing it against the best in the world. It’s just unfair and silly even to make a comparison like this. It’s ok to be excited about a prospect, but remember that Cahill is going to be pitching in the American League, a far more dangerous hitters league. And until Cahill does it on the big stage, there’s no sense in even making this argument.
Just a follow-up to my earlier post
I probably could have been a little less personal, but the controversy surrounding Dewey in the past couple weeks is getting really irritating, and there are simple ways to stop.
One of those ways, for instance, is for Dewey to realize that his posts are being closely monitored by the community, and rethink things for a second when he’s about to argue that a prospect who has barely gotten to AA is better than (or even has the potential to be better than) one of the best pitchers in the game. It’s not unreasonable to ask Dewey to have a little bit of a filter with what he posts.
I don’t think I’ve personally attacked him in this post, just trying to figure out what good he could have possibly thought was going to come from this sort of thread, with this sort of thread title.
Also, to stay on topic
I suppose I’ll weigh in on the actual contents of Dewey’s post.
What is so remarkable about what Brandon Webb did is that he turned “just OK” minor league stats into great, Cy Young award-winning major league stats. That is incredibly uncommon, and in that respect, it’s not even really fair to compare him with an actual, honest-to-God prospect, using only minor league stats. It’s like comparing apples to oranges, I think, because Webb’s current legacy does not stem from his minor league stats, and was not even really built from them, whereas it is likely that what we see from Cahill now is what he will build upon once he gets to AA, AAA, and the majors.
So, while parts of their games are comparable, and while it is likely that Trevor Cahill will be a comparable (though likely inferior) pitcher to Brandon Webb, it is not fair to compare their minor league stats in order to arrive at the conclusion that you arrived at. Minor league stats just aren’t relevant for Webb, while they likely will be relevant for Cahill.
by RedSoxFaithful on Jan 5, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
Disagree
I think it is is unreasonable to ask Dewey to have a little bit of a filter with what he posts. The reason is because Dewey rarely does anything uncalled for in his posts. Dewey does not swear, rarely makes a personal attack (unlike you and your Dewey vendetta) and is bringing up new debate about prospects. I would rather read original opinions on prospects (i.e. Dewey’s prospect lists) then the same old arguments. I don’t always agree with what Dewey says but I would rather disprove him with facts and not make myself look foolish by insulting him which you did earlier in this post. It seems that Dewey’s biggest ‘problem’ is that he does not like Brett Anderson. Well get over it people!!!!!! A lot of members of the community think he is an overrated prospect. People seem to forget that this is a MESSAGE BOARD. John makes money by having people come here (i.e. advertising revenue). Dewey not only has every right to participate, he SHOULD participate as that is what a message board is for.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 5, 2009 12:08 PM EST up reply actions
It's just weird.
Dewey is really not a problem. . .as others have said, this is a discussion board. Posting is not a bad thing. And it’s getting rather ridiculous that all of the umpteen million threads that he posts are being filled with other posters encouraging him to step back.
He’s really no different from like 95 percent of the people who post here. While I certainly do not think more of his opinion and disagree with him quite often, I do not think LESS of his opinion, either.
You can interpret my comments however you wish.
dewey
echoing other’s statements here. Just because I might not agree with him, I enjoy reading his posts and I hope he keeps it up. Without guys like him this board would be even duller than it already has become. People are so quick to demean others and their posting, but at the same time refuse to post topics themselves. Is that because they are scared of people doing the same thing to them or they just have nothing positive to contribute to the community here? I don’t know but its a little tiring reading flame wars in every post, and it really should never come to that. You don’t agree with his stance, like me, state that in your post and move along. There should be no personal attacks on a baseball discussion board. It’s childish.
I could use the same argument
to say that Brett Anderson or Rick Porcello will be better than Brandon Webb. Or every pitcher in the minors with a high GB%, a good (not necessarily great) fastball, and good (not necessarily great) stats.
DO IT!!!!!!!!!
I will love to read a well thought up write up on Porcello or Anderson. I am guessing that Dewey compared Cahill to Webb because that is the pitcher Cahill is most compared to.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 5, 2009 2:31 PM EST up reply actions
You go Dewey!
Yeah, it is far-fetched, but don’t go saying it can’t happen. Cahill will PROBABLY not be >Webb, but he MIGHT be >Webb. And wouldn’t that be something!
Here's an argument I will buy..
If you were to say that Cahill’s pitching style most closely resembles Brandon Webb, I could see that.
If you were to say that Cahill has the potential to be a top-of-the-rotation starter, maybe even an All-Star, I could see that.
To combine the two and say in any way Cahill could be better than Brandon Webb? No, I don’t think so. I’ll wait to see him go a year in the show before I even think of doing that.
Damn
Using this logic, Brett Anderson > Johan Santana.
The A’s rotation is going to be great!
Never, Never, NEVER give up
im going to make a suggestion for a small alteration that would greatly improve this post
write “could” in front of trevor cahill in the title. and then say cahill has better minor league numbers. ok so that was two alterations.
"My group runs some frogloks down the hall to finish them off and POP! RASTER! If there was a way to scream louder than caps in EQ I was doing it. Man I am straight panicking because I know I have NO CHANCE soloing and the party has run off. I'm in my hotel room; it's like 5am, and I am straight hollering, in EQ and in real life. Bottom line is the group comes back, heals me, and kills Raster! WOOT!" -Curt Schilling on his favorite memories in the video game "EverQuest"
I think that was deliberate to stir up discussion. I’m not sure Dewey is saying he will definitively but just that it’s possible and not out of the question to think it might happen. You are correct though, that small change would probably clear up some of these problems but in my opinion he shouldn’t have to alter his posting because he hasn’t really been doing anything wrong in the first place.
Wow, you all suck
Let’s get on someone for posting a thread that at least takes a stance on something.
No, it’s much better that everyone just starts a new thread linking some other site’s rankings of some team’s farm system, or people post about their fantasy league.
Better yet, how about everyone just post about how awesome we all are on this board and how we’re smarter than everyone else.
Christ, people have been comping Cahill to Webb for the last two years, now Dewey is a jackass for making the same comp?
Get over yourselves.
Cahill debut
So when does he hit the bigs? April 09 or are we going to let him get some additional minor league innings work?
Ripken.....thanks for the memories...
Short message from an occasional visitor
I love John Sickels’s blog. I visit whenever I can, though other things take priority for me, especially during the offseason. I post comments on most visits and occasionally start a discussion.
But I find the bickering (whether you are for or against this Dewey fellow) totally obnoxious and unreadable. If I post something like, “Brewers will win it all this year, and here’s why..”, hopefully readers would rather dismantle my arguments using stats, numbers, or just common sense, rather than trying to dismantle my value as a human being and as a poster. Attacks ad hominem are meaningless and add nothing to the site. In fact they detract in a way that likely drives the community you wish existed here away.
So my suggestion is, if you think a post is ridiculously off-base, explain why you feel differently. Don’t bother telling us how the poster is stupid or a troll or whatever. Because it turns out that you ruin your community by trying to ‘protect’ it.
Ichiro, on facing Daisuke Matsuzaka for the first time: "I hope he arouses the fire that's dormant in the innermost recesses of my soul."
let's compare Cahill to mystery player 1
Lets look at their minor league numbers for A-, A+, AA:
M 1 (age 19) Low A – 2.73 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 11.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9
Cahill (age 19) Low A – 2.73 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.4 BB/9
M 1 (age 21) High A – 2.09 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.3 BB/9
Cahill (age 20) High A – 2.78 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9
M 1 (age 22) Double A – 2.46 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, 2.1 BB/9
Cahill (age 20) Double A – 2.19 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9
Career MiLB Stats:
M 1 – 365.0 IP, 2.86 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9
Cahill – 238.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9
First one to guess who our mystery player is gets an e-candy!!!
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