Oliver projections now on Fangraphs

I bring this up because the Chris Davis fanpost had a lot of discussion regarding CHONE projections and their meaning towards second year players.  What has ended up happening is that folks are taking CHONE too literally while others are dismissing it entirely because they don't like the projections.

First, let me say that CHONE is a very good projection system.  It has been relatively accurate over the years and uses much better methods then the Marcel or Bill James projection methods.  It isn't perfect, though, and with the way it's formulas work it might be better served as a way of projecting veteran players or, at least, players with three years of MLB experience.  The reason for this is that CHONE only uses a three year equivalency at the major league level for it's projections, ignoring minor league stats entirely.  If a player doesn't have three years worth of data, CHONE does it's best with development and age curves.

Oliver, on the other hand, uses all of a player's major league years plus his minor league years adjusted with MLEs (Major League Equivalents).  What this means is that Oliver should be able to project major league performance for first, second, or even third year players with greater accuracy.  Time will tell is this is true or not, but for the moment we have a new tool to work with.

For comparison purposes, here is the CHONE mean projection for Davis for 2009 and the Oliver projection for 2009:

CHONE:  .265 / 316 / .492 - a .348 wOBA (8.8 wRAA) with 25 HR and 56 overa XBH in 516 PA

Oliver: .278 / .322 / .538 - a .362 wOBA (16.8 wRAA) with 37 HR and 79 overall XBH in 641 PA

The CHONE projection shouldn't be ignored, because it seems to be taking a heavier approach with Davis' development curve (especially the weaknesses that low contact + high strikeout guys have), but the Oliver projection has a better grasp on Oliver's power potential in the majors.  Both systems should be paid attention to because they both address separate issues, but neither one should be weighed above the other.  Oliver simply gives us another tool with which to project future performance.  I'm happy Fangraphs is continuing to bring us more information to play with.  It is really starting to become "the" site for modern statstical analysis.


Please replace every instance of CHONE in here with Marcel and please go find the Marcel prediction for Davis and replace it with the above CHONE projection.  Or don't.  Whatever you want to do is fine.

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