BP's Orioles Top 11 Prospects
by larry on Jan 26, 2009 11:59 AM EST
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PrintFive-Star Prospects
1. Matt Wieters, C
2. Chris Tillman, RHP
3. Brian Matusz, LHP
Four-Star Prospects
4. Jake Arrieta, RHP
5. Brandon Erbe, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
6. Nolan Reimold, RF
7. David Hernandez, RHP
8. Troy Patton, LHP
Two-Star Prospects
9. Jason Berken, RHP
10. Brandon Snyder, 1B
11. L.J. Hoes, 2BJust Missed: Xavier Avery, OF; Brad Bergesen, RHP; Kam Mickolio, RHP
Ranking Challenges: Wieters is the obvious top prospect, but the system's incredible pitching depth creates a lot of uncertainty when trying to sort out those ranked behind him; scouts had wide-ranging opinions on the order of Tillman, Matusz, and Arrieta, though for most Arrieta ended up one notch below the other two. The unknowns about Patton following shoulder surgery provide a challenge, while the significant talent drop-off towards the bottom leaves the last three spots to be determined solely by personal preference.
...
The Sleeper: With 80 speed (on the 20-80 scouting scale) and a keen understanding of the strike zone, 2008 fourth-round pick Kyle Hudson projects at least as a bench outfielder, even if his bat doesn't come around.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8440
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Exactly right
KG is a bit higher on Troy Patton and Brandon Snyder than I am, but this is pretty much dead on.
hour and a half isn't exactly just.
"A lot of people talk about his on-base percentage. I like to think in terms of him getting into scoring position."
math is tough, huh.
when are we going to get around to enacting those windfall taxes on oil companies?
I think they were referring to posting the diary
But possibly not
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jan 27, 2009 12:43 PM EST up reply actions
KG is also doing a livechat at BP
Some good O’s stuff, including this blurb on Billy Rowell:
"Zach (Baltimore): Are Rowell’s attitude problems really so prevalent that his huge upside doesn’t even get him on the radar anymore?
Kevin Goldstein: It’s not his only problem. Bad shape, listless play, bad defense. I coudln’t find anyone with a positive thing to say about him other than the fact that he hits the ball hard in batting practice. I’d put him in the late teens somewhere, but he got very little consideration for the Top 11."
It's pretty sad...
That Rowell didn’t even just miss at this point, but it’s impressive that the Orioles have built up their young talent despite a key disappointment like that.
Makes you wonder
What the Orioles could have done in 2007 had they not foolishly squandered their 2nd and 3rd round picks signing worthless FA relievers.
Incidentally, the player drafted just after Billy Rowell in 2006? Tim Lincecum. D’oh!
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 26, 2009 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
2007
I do wonder if the Orioles would’ve gone after someone like Arrieta if they had their second and third round picks in the first place. Maybe they just would’ve picked Bascom and Arrieta sooner (though I doubt it), but I just wonder if they would’ve had the budget to sign another Boras client and thusly I wonder if they would’ve picked him at all.
Librarians are hiding something
A little surprised that Arrieta isn't a 5 star
Also the difference between KLaw’s and Kevin’s scouting reports on Arrieta is substantial. Makes me wonder if Klaw has ever seen Arrieta pitch.
Not paying for that
But Law’s opinions are weird precisely because he tries to see them himself, and so if he sees someone on a bad day they are significantly affected. Goldstein doesn’t watch anyone; he just talks to scouts.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/scouting-orioles-pitching-prospect-jake-arrieta/
when are we going to get around to enacting those windfall taxes on oil companies?
Presumably
A five-star pitcher has no real weaknesses. Arrieta’s control is a legitimate flaw in his game right now. He can (and I suspect, will) still work through it, but that’s the difference between Arrieta and Tillman.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 27, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Rankings
Surprised to see Tillman rated ahead of Matusz.
by RandyKutcherHair on Jan 27, 2009 12:42 AM EST reply actions
Why?
Tillman destroyed AA at age 20, and has great scouting reports. Matusz has great scouting reports.
Seems like a no-brainer to me.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 27, 2009 12:02 PM EST up reply actions
Both are 5 star...
so I wouldn’t be as concerned with their actual placement on the list. Although I think it’s a little misleading to say that Matusz is only scouting reports at this stage. While I wouldn’t compare AA ball to the University of San Diego, he simply dominated the competition, in a way you’d expect a future top of the rotation major leaguer to dominate.
ProspectTube.com
You Video. You Scout.
by ProspectTube.com on Jan 27, 2009 12:33 PM EST up reply actions
Berken
I’ve always been a big fan of Berken from his days at Clemson, but I thought he had gotten lost in the Birds’ system. It’s good to see he has reemerged. Does anyone have any scouting on the guy now? I haven’t seen him pitch post-surgery.
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