Some Thoughts about Catching Prospects
by John Sickels on Jan 26, 2009 11:35 AM EST
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What conclusions can we draw after looking at the recent history of catching prospects? Some random thoughts. . .
*A catcher drafted early for his defensive skills but with a questionable bat may not be a very good risk. Recent failures/disappointments with that profile include Mark Johnson, Ben Davis, Ryan Christianson, Scott Heard, Dane Sardinha, and Rene Rivera. When your team drafts a defense-oriented catcher early with the idea that they will teach them to hit, be suspicious.
*Interestingly,the two best young catchers in the majors today, Joe Mauer and Brian McCann, were high school picks. So were Geovany Soto and Ryan Doumit. Martin was a junior college guy. Of the ten best catchers in baseball in 2008 (according to Win Shares), only Kurt Suzuzki and Chris Iannetta were four-year college guys.
*Grade A or A- catching prospects usually turn out well. The only Grade A who failed was Javier Valentin, but that was an early grade back when I was just getting started as an analyst. Grade A- definite failures were Raul Casanova (from Eddie Epstein) and Ben Petrick, whose career was ruined by impossible-to-predict Parkinson's Disease. It is too early to tell about Daric Barton and Jeff Mathis.
*Grade B+ prospects have a higher failure rate as you would expect. Injuries and/or Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome ruined Cline, Hinch, King, Pena,and Meluskey. Jeremy Brown topped out in Triple-A, which was predicted by scouts. It is too early to tell about some of the others.
*Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome is more of a description than an explanation. The theory is that young catchers often fail to develop as you would expect offensively, due to the physical stress of playing the position. Some guys just stop hitting for no apparent reason.
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Nice Work John
I really respect everything you did in your prospecting Catcher articles. Theyre such a fickle position that its almost impossible to project them.
by conquested reality on Jan 26, 2009 12:41 PM EST reply actions
Great Campenella card!
Props on that one…
- catcher of all time
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Jan 26, 2009 1:05 PM EST reply actions
Damn you Billy Joel
Everytime I see his name now I think “Rockefeller, Campanella, communist bloc….”
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
-1
If you think Roy Campenella is the No. 1 catcher of all-time your seriously mistaken. That said Campy was a really good player who followed some really huge season w/ some really poor ones. Also I feel he is a bit overrated because of the matchbox park he played in.
Yes
I meant as an all-around guy and catcher… not for his stats… him and Yogi Berra are a cut above the rest
by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Jan 29, 2009 1:46 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks, John.
As every Ranger and Red Sox fan would like to know, are either of Texas’ young guys worth Clay Buchholz?
Go Strangers.
Thoughts on Buster Posey vs. Kyle Skipworth?
I was pretty skeptical on both, and this post makes me even moreso on Posey.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
Thoughts
I think you might be underselling Posey a bit. He’s certainly not your typical catcher, having been a recent convert from shortstop – and he would’ve been a likely first rounder wherever he played. I’m not sure he’ll be a true star, but I think he’s a solid player somewhere on the field.
Skipworth has some pretty incredible potential, though. He’s also pretty athletic, with serious power potential. One thing I look for in catchers is power numbers – why, you ask? Because true, consistent power numbers come from a player’s ability to use his legs, and naturally strong legs are essential to enduring the wear and tear of catching. I personally suspect that poor hitting technique and/or lack of power in a young backstop is a telling sign of imminent Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome.
remember, Posey’s doesn’t fall into the “A catcher drafted early for his defensive skills but with a questionable bat may not be a very good risk” category. Posey’s bat is a major part of why he has been thought of this highly.
Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?
Exactly, if anything, Posey was drafted for the opposite reasons. He was viewed as a polished, college bat with the athleticism to become a very good major league catcher, defensively.
Idolizing Robb Nen since 2002...
by Smoke on the Water on Jan 26, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
From KG’s chat today:
Rob (Alaska): Do you see Buster Posey as a 300/400/500 hitter or more of a 320/380/460 hitter?
Kevin Goldstein: Can I mix and match here? I see him as more of a .290/.370/.475 type.
That's still fucking outstanding from a catcher, assuming he's not horrible defensively
A league-average catcher who put up that line would be about 5 wins above replacement, or a perennial true-talent All-Star.
Many years from now, when his name's recalled
Everyone will say, "He should have passed the ball"
-- Al Stewart, "Football Hero"
Less recent history of catching prospects
I got to idly thinking if the era just before John’s debut as an analyst might have anything more to tell us about catchers. Baseball America has its old Top 100 lists archived , which provides a few more possible data points:
1990: 5. Sandy Alomar Jr., c, Indians; 7. Todd Zeile, c, Cardinals; 63. Eric Wedge, c, Red Sox; 65. Todd Hundley, c, Mets; 70. Rick Wilkins, c, Cubs; 92. Tyler Houston, c, Braves.
1991: 7. Ivan Rodriguez, c, Rangers; 28. Tyler Houston, c, Braves; 47. Brook Fordyce, c, Mets; 52. Steve Decker, c, Giants; 59. Todd Hundley, c, Mets; 85. Greg Colbrunn, c, Expos; 95. Dan Wilson, c, Reds.
1992: 18. Todd Hundley, c, Mets; 29. Dave Nilsson, c, Brewers; 41. Dan Wilson, c, Reds; 67. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays; 78. Javier Lopez, c, Braves.
1993: 4. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays; 20. Javy Lopez, c, Braves; 38. Mike Piazza, c, Dodgers; 64. Brook Fordyce, c, Mets; 67. Mike Lieberthal, c, Phillies; 91. Dan Wilson, c, Reds.
1994: 5. Carlos Delgado, c, Blue Jays; 17. Javy Lopez, c, Braves; 20. Charles Johnson, c, Marlins.
I’m not in a position to argue about what any of that might reveal — mostly I was trying to find the Piazza/Javy Lopez years and see who else was being touted at that time. And I had completely forgotten that Delgado used to catch.
Great breakdown
Javier Valentin and Raul Casanova each had pretty darn good winters in the Puerto Rico Winter League though.
Another category that would add depth to this breakdown is catching prospects that converted to other positions: Josh Willingham, Jayson Werth, Joey Votto, Pablo Sandoval, Josh Phelps, Neil Walker, etc.
Agreed
Seems like the vast majority of good hitting catchers tend to move off the position either before or right after hitting the bigs. It is very rare for a guy like Piazza or Ivan Rodriguez to actually stay at C. So unless the evaluators are absolutely raving about the player’s defensive skills, I always have my doubts that the kid will stick at C (which is why I am starting to wonder about Posey).
The Other Side
Evaluating the evalatuion of prospects is one side of the coin. I think the flip side, especially for catchers, is how they are trained and used once they reach advanced levels. The NFL has increasingly gone to a two-running back model, both to reduce risk and extend careers. Running backs, in the old model (and maybe still in two-back models), are kaput by age 31 or 32, having only so many carries in their bodies (or alternatively, only so many hits they can withstand). Will some forward-thinking execs/managers develop a new model for catcher use, using a platoon system of sorts to reduce the wear-and-tear on catchers while still providing them hitting opportunities at other positions? Maybe something like a three-headed catcher platoon, where two or all three catchers are capable of playing multipe positions. I think if this would become prevalent, you would see less “segregation” of players earier in their careers. Say a high school catcher is a great hitter and a terrific prospect. How many of these players move away from catching because of the concern for career longevity?
I think you're far less likely to see this in baseball than football...
One reason is the contract structure of baseball. Catchers tend to reach the majors at a later age than other positions, and thus teams typically have contractual control over their catchers throughout their prime. (Obviously Mauer will end up being the rare exception when he becomes an FA after ’10 at age 27).
If the A’s run Suzuki into the ground in the next five years, some other team will be paying him for his past-30 decline.
Also, a backup running back creates less of a continuity problem than a backup catcher does. Many pitchers absolutely prefer to be caught by one of their teams catchers rather than the other. I’ve never a lineman complain about which running back is in the backfield.
Then again, lineman aren’t allowed to complain about anything.
A three-catcher platoon would never happen. It creates too much strain on the flexibility of the rest of the 25-man roster.
Batting 4th for the 2014 San Jose A's: 26-year-old RF Justin Upton, in the 1st season of a nine year, $250M deal.
by notsellingjeans on Jan 28, 2009 7:24 PM EST up reply actions
Good points
but:
1) I think that major league pitchers should get over themselves if they feel they have to have personal caddies. No “I” in team sort of thing.
2) I think it is a self-fulfilling prophecy that catchers take longer to reach the majors. I think the better athletes are selected out, thus you have lesser athletes taking longer to learn the tools of the trade. I think it is worth considering whether the current use and training of catchers is sub-optimal for staffing the position. Don’t you think a better athlete could, on the whole, become major-league ready sooner? And would be able to “minor” in a secondary position (LF, 1B, etc…), thus providing flexibility necessary for a 25 -man roster as well as playing catcher longer in their career, thus reducing the “use up, throw away, get another, etc..” cycle?
by slacker george on Jan 29, 2009 11:03 AM EST up reply actions
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