Discussion Question
by John Sickels on Jan 25, 2009 8:00 AM EST
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PrintHere is a discussion question to keep you busy on this fine Sunday.
Of the first ten players picked and signed (Aaron Crow doesn't count) in the 2008 draft, who is most likely to bust?
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Why Jason Castro?
Who was expecting him to be a star? Besides the Astros of course…consensus around draft day was it was a pretty poor pick. It was reported that it was a pick used for organizational need/depth, he may not amount to anything but I wasn’t really expecting him to in the first place which wouldn’t really make him a bust in my book. :D
Matusz . . .
Just playing the odds here . . . he is the only pitcher on the list and in a basic sense the physical act of pitching is completely unnatural . . . given the choice between a random batter and a random pitcher on who was going to bust I would take the pitcher every time . . . and it really struck me by the fact that he was the only signed pitcher out of the top ten. Also the Orioles haven’t had the best track record of developing their own pitchers. Sure there is Bedard . . . but wouldn’t Matusz be considered a bust if he didn’t contribute in a meaningful way until age 27?
+1
Always bet against the pitcher.
Chances are that one of the corner bats will end up spending a decade getting to know the best local watering holes of Fresno, Syracuse, Louisville, and Salt Lake City. But it’s anybody’s guess as to who. And while Skipworth is certainly tempting since he’s a very high risk/high reward kind of player, you just have to bet against the guy who needs a functioning labrum, rotator cuff, and UCL to do his most basic duties.
"Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on or by imbeciles who really mean it." - Mark Twain
This was my reasoning as well.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 26, 2009 9:39 AM EST up reply actions
+1
I think there’s a lot of folks expecting a TOR, and I’m just not sold that Matusz is a TOR type.
+1
Don’t forget the “Orioles are idiots” factor, too. Just one scenario: Matusz torches A- and AA-ball this year, gets a September callup, starts five games, and winds up with 200+ IP.
And yes, I’m thinking of Sidney Ponson racking up 12 CGs at ages 22 and 23 while throwing 440 innings. Who could have possibly forseen him getting injured and then sucking after that??
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 25, 2009 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
except the Orioles aren't idiots anymore.
by Daniel Berlyn on Jan 25, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions
Well
I don’t think we have the data necessary to conclude that. Certainly I like a lot of what McPhail has done — even more so now that he’s brought in Pie. But I think a lot of the Orioles’ problems at the minor-league level were systemic (cf. Leo Mazzone’s recent comments), and I’m not certain they’ve fixed them from top-to-bottom yet.
I hope so, of course. But I guess I’ll remain skeptical until they prove otherwise.
And Ponson is the easy case — but can anyone seriously argue that the Orioles did a good job handling Erik Bedard? Or Adam Loewen? Or Daniel Cabrera? Or… anyone, really?
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 26, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions
handling
Is it Kranitz’s fault that Cabrera never learned control, or Mazzone’s, or Perlozzo’s, or Flanagan’s, or Angelos’? Same goes with Loewen and injuries. Lots of pitchers will play hurt thinking that if they say something, it will hurt their career, not thinking that they will make the injury much more serious.
Bedard is a special case, given his unique background/signing and his big breaking ball, it’s tough to last given the way he throws.
ZAUN! ZAAAAAAAUN!
did you really just use an example for a decade ago?
that was, what, five managers ago?
"A lot of people talk about his on-base percentage. I like to think in terms of him getting into scoring position."
?
Yes, drafting the best hitting prospect in baseball is clearly relevant to the question of whether the organization shreds young arms.
by AndrewTorrez on Jan 26, 2009 10:16 AM EST up reply actions
oh my mistake
I interpreted that as meaning they’re idiots because they don’t know how to build a farm system. My bad. But Sidney Ponson isn’t exactly a recent example.
++++1
Everytime you use RBI as anything other than an indicator of where a guy is hitting in his team's lineup, another cute snuggly animal dies a horrible death.
- PT
Priming
I realize the poll is just for fun, but it’s likely that your last series of posts has predisposed a lot of folks to vote for the catchers.
I voted for Skipworth
A raw HS hitter with holes. Whehter he was a C or not, that seems pretty risky to me. Hosmer was the better hitter…I thought about T. Beckham to but went with Skipworth who I heard less about leading up to the draft. The Rays have been fairly successful with their drafts and truly liked him the most so I went with Skipworth.
Some of us were already predisposed
Given almost any prospect list, the likelihood of bust usually goes in roughly this order:
1) high school catchers
2) high school pitchers
3) college pitchers
4) college catchers
5) other high school player
6) other college player
There’s just so much more variance with high school prospects, especially catchers (given both Young Catcher Stagnation Syndrome and the risk that they’ll move to a far less valuable position) and pitchers (given the injury risk), that it’s almost impossible for a highly-regarded college prospect to be remotely comparable.
Not to say that college players are inherently more valuable; they’re just less likely to be complete busts, but they often don’t have quite as much of an upside either…
Pedro
I know everyone is down on him right now, but is he really as likely to bust as a high school shortstop in Beckham? What happened to the time when people said he was pretty much destined for stardom?
Well...
reports are he showed up to camp fat. I wouldn’t vote on him as a likely bust, but with his hype, if he turns into merely an above average offensive 1B with 25hr power, I think a lot of people will be pretty disappointed. He’s considered a better prospect than Alex Gordon was out of high school, and Gordon’s considered a disappointment even though he’s graded out as a slightly above average major leaguer in each of his first 2 seasons. Alvarez almost has to become a top-15 hitter to live up to his pre-draft hype.
Bust - Least Successful or Most Likely to Meet Expectations?
The answer varies based on how you define “bust”. I voted for Skipworth. As a high school catcher, he has a higher risk than others. However, if you look at those who are most likely to fall short of expectations, I would have to vote for T. Beckham, Alvarez or Hosmer because the hype involved with each.
Smoak
I don’t know the 7 people who voted for him but WOW!
A's fans who are bummed about not only losing him
but losing him to the Rangers.
Scott Feldman for 2009 AL Cy Young
Scott Feldman for 2010 AL Scott Feldman
I put matusz
simply because pitchers are always more likely to flame out or have career changing injuries….. not an indictment on what i think of his skills.
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I'm not certain why
but I have very little faith in either of the SSs on the list. I voted Gordon, but I’m not too confident about Tim either. Skipworth is another big question mark for me. I put Castro, Matusz, and Posey in the category of people who will probably be solid major leaguers, but nothing more – or less. The 1Bs strike me as safe picks, but I’m waiting to be convinced otherwise
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Really?
The SSs can miss their ceiling by a ton and still be plus major league players.
The 1B prospects are the ones who will need to hit their ceilings to be even above average at their position.
As a rule I agree with you that SS are better bets
I’m referring to these SS and these 1B specifically, though
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by OldProspects on Jan 26, 2009 10:27 AM EST up reply actions
I agree
a SS might not stick at SS, but there are a lot of positions lower on the defensive spectrum they can move to if their bat will play. There’s no place to move a 1B. I think catching prospects and pitching prospects bust the most often. I’m a Cardinal fan, and we have a trail of busted pitchers laying all over our draft history. Luckily, it looks to be getting better.
Castro
Why? Two words: Ed Wade. The most incompetent GM in baseball. Catchers are always risky, drafting for need always leads to reaches and the combination of those with Ed Wade is downright toxic.
Bowden???
Anyways, I’m not a huge Wade fan, but in respect to the draft, does the GM really play that big of a role (unless he takes over negotiations)? Unless there’s a communication breakdown between the GM and scouting director, the GM shouldn’t really matter on draft day. But, if you want to assume that he does, then what does it say when the core of the Phillies was drafted under his watch? But, if the S.D. is more important, then the GM’s chief role in the draft is making sure that he has a good S.D. in place. Arbuckle apparently did a good job and Bobby Heck came in with a great pedigree and the ’08 draft is, by and large, considered a good haul.
I would like to see where the club says they drafted Castro because of need. I’ve never come across one quote from the front office suggesting that and I’ve participated in chats where Heck asserts that he wasn’t selected based on need. Will Smoak put up better numbers? Probably. But, if anything, my assumption is that they didn’t want to bust slot (which only a few teams actually did) and signing a player for slot allowed them to spend more later in the draft for guys like Seaton. They spent $7M on the draft, so it’s not like they went cheap, either.
Personally, I did vote for a catcher. But, I think Skipworth has the greatest chance of those listed to be a bust. I considered T. Beckham, but settled for the raw catcher. To me, it’s hard to consider a guy who’s a good bet to be a solid, everyday catcher a good candidate to bust. As someone else said, he may not have the upside of some of the other guys, but he does have a high floor. If all he becomes is a solid, everyday catcher, that has to be considered a successful pick.
by astrosfan76 on Jan 26, 2009 10:26 AM EST up reply actions
To the guy commenting on the Orioles history...
Now, I certainly agree that they’re history hasn’t been of the cautious variety, and I also realize that pitchers flame out more frequently. In fact, I even voted for Matusz because of the latter reason.
But to judge a player’s likeliness based on what his team has done in the past is unfair. Every aspect of the O’s “faculty” has changed, besides Angelos (who doesn’t affect pitch counts, no matter how evil he is and how much Al Davis he is like) They’ve been ultra cautious with their pitchers the last two years, both with in game pitch counts and with overall games pitched. The pitching coach has changed. The GM has changed. The manager has changed.
Teams do change. You don’t see anyone calling the Yankees “the best team” anymore, because with time, they’ve changed.
by maneatingbaby on Jan 25, 2009 1:39 PM EST reply actions 1 recs
Won't reach the majors
I look at a ‘bust’ as someone who doesn’t make the majors. Some will make it and not be what people thought but to be a true bust they can’t make it at all IMO. Out of that group the only players I think could possibly not ever make an appearance in the league are Beckham, Hosmer, Skipworth. I never did like Skipworth that much from what I saw, Hosmer has to hit well to get there, Beckham athleticism gives him a big advantage on the other two, so I think of the three he’s least likely to ‘bust’ So I would rank them Skipworth, Hosmer, Beckham.
Posey and Castro will at least be backup C’s if they ‘bust’. Alvarez, Alonso, and Smoak have enough bat to where they will get there in some role. Gordon Beckham will at least find a utility role.
Posey
his defensive troubles in the HWL worry me. If he has to move to 1b and the bat doesn’t play, he could be a 4A guy and end in the bust catagory
I thought
Posey was a good athlete? Why would he have to move to 1B if he can’t stay behind the plate? Why couldn’t he be tried at 3B, RF, something other than 1B? I’m not a huge Posey fan myself, but I don’t think he’s in the C or 1B/DH category though. He should have some other options if he can’t stay at catcher.
"So's your mom"-David Sloane
he was a SS his first year of college before converting to catcher.
probably obvious that he won’t be a SS again but, yeah, i also don’t think the obvious move for a guy like that is to go to first base. he has some experience in the outfield, iirc, too.
when are we going to get around to enacting those windfall taxes on oil companies?
+1 on the logic
And I also happened to vote for Skipworth. He seems like a pretty easy choice to me, though I can understand just defaulting to the pitcher due to injury concern.
I forgot Matusz
I forgot to list Matusz, I dont’ like Matusz all that much I dont’ think he’s going to have much success, but he will eat some innings for the O’s in some capacity at some point. So I don’t think he’ll bust either. I think alot of the guys on the list will dissapoint, but probably not bust.
I say Hosmer or Alvarez
Hosmer is soooo far away anything can happen
And All the interesting things I’ve read on Alvarez both good and bad (apparent weight gain)
has me suddenly a little skeptical of him.
by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 25, 2009 3:47 PM EST reply actions
agreed on Hosmer
he is so far away and he’s a 1B. if he doesnt absolutely rake he’s worthless.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 25, 2009 9:15 PM EST up reply actions
By my count
the 15th 1B in terms of OPS last year was Adam Laroche, whose OPS was .841. Adam Laroche has been a starting 1B for 5 years, and this was a slightly better than normal year for him, and nobody has yet to call him “worthless” despite not “absolutely raking.” Lyle Overbay, also a starting 1B, had an OPS of .777 last year, and over his 6 years as a starting 1B, his career OPS has been .809. Is he worthless too? In some circles, James Loney is one of the highest regarded young 1B – his OPS last year was .772. Casey Kotchman started the whole year at 1B with an OPS of .738. Kevin Millar had a .717 OPS.
Presumably, the reason why a team started Kevin Millar for a whole year is that they had no one else who was better, meaning that he was certainly worth something. But the Orioles’ idiocy is neither here nor there – if these prospects develop into hitters who can post an OPS above .800 while providing adequate defense, then they will certainly have worth, whether or not they play only 1B
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by OldProspects on Jan 26, 2009 10:39 AM EST up reply actions
perhaps "worthless" was too strong a word
my apologies. my point was that as a 1B, his value is tied almost completely into his bat. if he doesnt hit well, it will be very hard for him to make it to the majors. the rest of the guys listed are either at premium defensive positions or are a few years more advanced than Hosmer. im not really knocking Hosmer as an individual (i dont really i know enough about him to make a definitive judgment either way, seeing as he is just out of high school), but rather high school 1B in general.
by Charlie Scrabbles on Jan 26, 2009 11:12 AM EST up reply actions
Oh, I wasn't offended
We’re agreed that 1B have to be good hitters in order to make the major leagues, and that Hosmer is at least a few years away in which he could easily slip. That being said, the chances that he will be at least an average or above average major league hitter seems quite high to me
TheSouthWing.com - A Magazine of essays, prose and poems
by OldProspects on Jan 26, 2009 10:15 PM EST up reply actions
Went with Skipworth
I was tempted to go with Matusz just because of the inherent injury risk with pitchers. But as a college lefty with good polish I think the chance of injury with Matusz is slightly mitigated.
I might have been a bit influenced by the recent series on catchers but I think that stagnation is always a risk with catchers, especially so with high school ones. There is a lot to like with Skipworth, but he is so far from the majors at a very difficult position that I think there is a high bust potential there.
Based On
The Ballplayer Name Theory, Matusz and Alvarez are guaranteed to succeed.
Skipworth is bound to be a bottomfeeder.
Went with Posey
He got the huge bonus, he’s been hyped to death and his profile looks very Ramon Hernandez to me. If that’s the performance level he reaches I wouldn’t term it a bust, but I would say it’s a disappointment based on current hopes of SF fans.
Doesn't look like Hernandez in key ways
Hernandez was only an average hitter with below average OBP and high teen HR power and so-so defense, as far as I can remember about his defense. Posey has been described by most accounts as a plus hitter who should get on base better than average, because he has good plate discipline, plus high teen HR power, who should have plus defense.
So I would agree that if he did turn out to be a Ramon Hernandez, he would be a bust, but I don’t think that he profiles like Ramon currently. The description I saw was that he profiles more like Mauer.
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by obsessivegiantscompulsive on Jan 26, 2009 6:56 PM EST up reply actions
Disagree
Hernandez was seen as a solid all-around prospect. His career minor league line is 290/372/456.
I’ve seen Posey around 40 times and Hernandez always comes to mind. Similar size at the same age. Swing mechanics are close though not identical.
At age 21 Hernandez tore apart the California League to the tune of 361/422/572 in 493 AB before a disappointing 161 AB in AA. The next year he handled AA just fine, hitting 296/371/445 in 489 AB. All along his walk and K rates were solid: for his minor league career he walked 247 times and struck out 251 times. So his on-base skills were above average.
When he was the same age as Posey is now, Hernandez was regarded as a great hitting prospect who needed work behind the plate but had the catch-and-throw skills to succeed there. By the time he got to the Majors he was working so hard on becoming a solid defender and game caller that his hitting suffered. Still, he’s averaged about 17 HR per 500 AB with a respectable 263/326/421 line, and he made himself a very solid defensive catcher who handled his pitching staff well.
Posey should start 2009 at AA, and his defensive showing in HWL puts him in about the same place Hernandez was at in 1997. He has better arm strength than Hernandez and is a bit better at hitting for contact, but his power isn’t on the same level.
I’ll stick by my comp. I saw Hernandez in Posey all last season, and am still shaking my head at how he wound up being picked 5th overall.
by ToddyBaseball on Jan 26, 2009 7:50 PM EST up reply actions
If Posey
has a career similar to Hernandez he will not be a bust. Not even close to a bust. Just because you don’t reach your hype doesn’t mean that you are a bust. There are a couple guys on this poll that probably wont even make to the majors. Saying he reminds you of a catcher that has been in the majors for 10 years and has 137 homers is not really a bad thing.
Quoting myself
“If that’s the performance level he reaches I wouldn’t term it a bust, but I would say it’s a disappointment based on current hopes of SF fans.”
by ToddyBaseball on Jan 27, 2009 9:35 AM EST up reply actions
technically
Smoak was picked 11th right? It doesn’t matter, he was projected top ten and is being touted as if he was top 5.
:P
Next Year! We Swear!
it's because Crow didn't sign.
"No... JD has been exposed as a kid who trades his remote-controlled helicopters for paper airplanes, then fails to consider the feelings of the paper airplane when he refolded it into a hat." -Telegraph.
by Kinslerhomer on Jan 26, 2009 9:47 AM EST up reply actions
Kyle Skipworth
The fact that he is a high school catcher should make this case. He also performed poorly last summer after joining the Marlins. He does have a ton of power potential but, he just looks like a high upside prospect with a good chance to bust.
Def Skipworth
I don’t see how people can vote for Castro. It wasn’t “Which team made the worst pick”.
1. Skipworth
2. TBeckam
3. Matusz
4. Hosmer
5. GBeckam
6. Alvarez
7. Posey
8. Castro
9. Smoak
10. Alonso
yep
and the 78 who managed to vote for alonso should be sent to the same prospect evaluation rehibilitation center
Chris (NJ): I am personally offended at how you ranked a prospect from my favorite team, even though I do not know said prospect, nor have I ever seen him play. In my opinion you only have your job because, like your employers, you have an unholy bias towards my favorite team’s rival. Also, you’re short.
Keith Law: You’re right. I am short.
hmm
when I said Heyward was the next Jesus I was wrong.
we have our new most overrated prospect.
Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.
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