Is this the year Alex Gordon breaks out?

by nyy601 on Jan 21, 2009 9:31 PM EST Comment 32 comments

Coming out of college he was a can't miss 3B. He then went on to back that up in the minors, putting up great numbers, and was widely considered the best prospect in baseball.

His first two years have been some what of a disappointment. Not bad for a 23-24 year old in the majors, but not what you would expect from the best prospect in baseball.

While many other prospects have shown flashes of greatness (Longoria, Bruce, Upton), Gordon hasn't yet at the major league level. He did however improve in his second year (average, power, and walks went up). But he has not performed nearly as good as most people thought.

Is this the year Gordon puts it all together?

Poll

What does the future hold for Alex Gordon?

Gordon will still become a star

83 votes

Gordon won't live up to the hype, but will be a very good player

176 votes

Gordon will never be more than an average 3B

37 votes

296 votes | Poll has closed

1 recs | Comment 32 comments

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yes, he will quietly put together for a great year

I hope the A’s can somehow steal him from the Royals as a replacement for Chavvy while his value is still relatively low.

"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."

Another reason he needs to go.

by diehardoaklandfan22 on Jan 21, 2009 9:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

There is no way

the Royals even think about trading Gordon

by nyy601 on Jan 21, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think there is

Look, they have Moustakas coming up behind him, Hosmer coming up at first, and hes not gonna be athletic enough for the outfield. I think they very well could trade him, move Teahen back to third, wait for Moustakas, then move Teahen back to the OF

"Sometimes Joe (morgan) doesn't like facts to get in the way of his opinions."- billy beane
"That was a great pick...if this was 2002" Me, to guy who selected Barry Zito in a fantasy draft
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by harendaman365 on Jan 21, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

So you think the Royals should trade their best prospect to come through the system possibly ever, the guy that is supposed to become the face of the franchise, to make room for a 18 year old with 11 pro at bats. That is ridiculous.

by nyy601 on Jan 21, 2009 10:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, Im saying

they could decide to trade a guy who the rest of the league values but who they think is a bust before the rest of the league realizes

by harendaman365 on Jan 21, 2009 11:24 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Carlos Beltran?

by soxkid on Jan 22, 2009 12:25 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

widdle bit different situation there

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 22, 2009 12:39 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beltran was a very good prospect

but he was not even close to being as highly touted as Gordon. Beltran was ranked #14 by BA. Gordon was pretty much the undisputed #1 prospect.

by nyy601 on Jan 22, 2009 12:51 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Would you bet on Gordon being a better player than Beltran?

I sure wouldn’t. And just because he was an elite prospect two years ago doesn’t mean we should ignore what we’ve seen the last two years. Delmon Young was an elite prospect, too, and I don’t hold out any hope that he’ll be an all-star caliber player at this point.

by aap212 on Jan 22, 2009 1:53 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

you guys aren't even arguing the same thing

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 22, 2009 1:54 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Delmon

I must defend his honor! He’s performed reasonably well and progressed in his two years in the bigs! And he remains very young for a big leaguer! Delmon Young may yet become an All-Star and it is WAAAAAY to early to say anything definitely about him beyond the very beginning of his career.

by GuyinNY on Jan 23, 2009 6:44 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

nyy601... possibly ever?

There’s a guy named George Brett… Brett was no slouch. I mean, he is an HOFer… Careful about overhyping a player…

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Jan 22, 2009 2:38 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

best PROSPECT...meaning while still in the minors

i’m certainly not old enough to remember Brett as a prospect, but from what I have read/heard, he wasn’t necessarily a very hyped guy.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 22, 2009 3:01 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

As a prospect, George was rather immortally considered a poorer hitter than his brother Ken (a good hitting pitcher, at that time for the Red Sox IIRC). On the other hand he shot up through the system quickly and made his major league debut at age 20. Ironically, Brett never had a BA of .300 in any of his 4 minor league seasons, nor did he ever have an OPS of .800. His best batting attribute as a minor leaguer was his plate discipline, consistently posting ISOs around .080 and 1:1 bb/k ratios.

Get the hell out the way Bengie, Pablito's hit the show!

by Roger on Jan 22, 2009 3:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Adjust hype for inflation

The internet and sports journalism boom have wildly inflated the amount of attention and hype given to prospects. Of course George Brett is unlikely to have received the hype that Alex Gordon did. I doubt Tom Seaver got nearly as much hype as David Price. That’s not the measure of a prospect’s quality.

by aap212 on Jan 22, 2009 4:33 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wrote something abt this on AN

by harendaman365 on Jan 21, 2009 10:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what about for Mazzaro, Simmons, Carter + Bailey or Carignan?

Another reason he needs to go.

by diehardoaklandfan22 on Jan 21, 2009 9:47 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

my bad, i spaced about the reply button

Another reason he needs to go.

by diehardoaklandfan22 on Jan 21, 2009 9:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

In the dream world where KC is trading Gordon

You aren’t getting him without Anderson or Cahill at the top of that package.

by aCone419 on Jan 21, 2009 10:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

And one of them would just be the starting point.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jan 22, 2009 12:06 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Are you kidding?

I don’t think the Royals would trade him, but if I’m Dayton Moore and I’m offered that package, I drive Gordon to Oakland myself.

by aap212 on Jan 22, 2009 12:09 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I am not kidding

Cahill or Anderson straight up for Gordon is not enough for Moore to pull the trigger.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jan 22, 2009 1:11 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

The Royals

would probably laugh at that offer. Like actually laugh out loud.

There is NO WAY they trade Gordon.

by nyy601 on Jan 21, 2009 9:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't say "NO WAY," but the chances are certainly extremely slim

the deal would have to be ridiculously skewed.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 21, 2009 11:49 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Good way of looking at it

Alex Gordon real stats:
2007, MLB: 543 AB, 60 R, 134 H, 36 2B, 4 3B, 15 HR, 60 RBI, 41 BB, 137 K .247/.314/.411/.725
2008, MLB: 493 AB, 72 R, 128 H, 35 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 66 BB, 120 K .260/.351/.432/.783

Note that Gordon skipped AAA in 2007 and went directly to the majors. The best method for evaluating his development, then, is to convert his 2007 MLB statistics to the PCL. You get the following stats, then:

2007, AAA: 529 AB, 79 R, 152 H, 41 2B, 5 3B, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 55 BB, 127 K. .287/.354/.494/.848
2008, MLB: 493 AB, 72 R, 128 H, 35 2B, 1 3B, 16 HR, 59 RBI, 66 BB, 120 K .260/.351/.432/.783

In other words, he’s really not doing that badly. No, he is not setting the world on fire and perhaps he has underperformed slightly. But he’s still well on track to being an above-average player in his prime, which is really all you can ask of any prospect. Truly elite outcomes can be envisioned but should very, very rarely be expected.

by mrkupe on Jan 22, 2009 12:30 AM EST reply actions 1 recs

Honestly, I think he's already broken out...

But we will need more PA’s to confirm this
Check the all-star splits for last season:
Pre-All Star break:.253/.334/.407/.741 in 356 PAs
Post-All Star break: 277/.392/.496/.888 in 137 PAs

More telling is his platoon splits during those times.
Alex has always hit righties, but its been lefties giving huim trouble.
I dont have the exact stats but I do remember that his pre-all star break OPS vs. lefties was a horrific .550, and that after was almost .840

Which means that if he has figured out left handed pitching, then next year could be amazing for Alex. right now 25 HR’s with a .420 OBP wouldn’t suprise me.

I refuse to set up a signature....DAMMIT

by RoyalPug on Jan 22, 2009 12:25 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Really?

A .420 OBP would be a shock to my nervous system.

by Daniel Plainview on Jan 22, 2009 4:26 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's see if a non-Royals fan would go unsurprised by a 420 OBP and 25 HR.

by aap212 on Jan 22, 2009 4:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

royals fan here...

honestly, i wouldnt be surprised by 35 or so homers, but a 420 OBP would absolutely shock the hell out of me. lets shoot for a 370 or so OBP with 25-30 homers and less shitty defense

TPJ...you're dead to me

by billybeingbilly on Jan 22, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

interesting stuff

putting gordon on my draft board. thanx for the info

by harendaman365 on Jan 22, 2009 9:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

RBI's

Where does he sit in the batting order this year?
Will he have a chance to knock in a few more RBI’s with the guys in front of him possibly getting on base more often than last year?

Ripken.....thanks for the memories...

by bodyiq on Jan 22, 2009 8:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs