Seattle Mariners Top 20 Prospects for 2009
by John Sickels on Jan 2, 2009 6:58 PM EST
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All grades are EXTREMELY PRELIMINARY and subject to change. Don’t get too worried about exact rankings at this point, especially once you get out of the top 10. Grade C+/C guys are pretty interchangeable depending on what you are looking for.
1) Carlos Triunfel, INF, Grade B+: He has flaws, but holding your own in the Cal League at age 18 is special. High risk, high reward.
2) Greg Halman, OF, Grade B: Another high risk/high reward guy, awesome power/speed potential but huge problems with breaking balls. Could be a B+ but high risk of failure and 2.5 years older than Triunfel.
3) Phillipe Aumont, RHP, Grade B: Impressive arm and good numbers in the Midwest League, but too raw to get a B+.
4) Juan Ramirez, RHP, Grade B: Another live arm who did well at the lower levels but needs additional refinement.
5) Michael Pineda, RHP, Grade B: Doesn’t throw quite as hard as Aumont and Ramirez, but better command.
6) Michael Saunders, OF, Grade B-: Good tools, skills coming along, but high strikeout rate is concerning.
7) Adam Moore, C, Grade B-: Good pop, good arm, still polishing defense. Deserves more attention than he gets.
8) Jharmidy DeJesus, 3B, Grade B-: Another young high ceiling guy with strike zone problems.
9) Dennis Raben, OF, Grade B-: Love the power and patience, but other tools are mediocre, may strike out too much to hit for average.
10) Mario Martinez, 3B, Grade C+: Considering B- based on projection. Worried about low walk rate but very young.
11) Mike Carp, 1B, Grade C+: Power and patience, acquired from Mets, but track record is a bit erratic and scouts give mixed reports.
12) Mike Wilson, OF, Grade C+ Murders lefties, strong power, has some fielding ability too, strikes out a lot. Could be good platoon hitter.
13) Maikel Cleto, RHP, Grade C+: Power arm acquired from Mets. Great fastball, but rather raw.
14) Joshua Fields, RHP, Grade C+: I’m assuming he will sign. Stuff is here, but what about command?
15) Shawn Kelley, RHP, Grade C+: Sleeper prospect could help in bullpen sooner than expected.
16) Matt Tuiasosopo, 3B, Grade C: I think he can be a useful role player, but doubt he will hit enough to start.
17) Ezequiel Carrera, OF, Grade C: Speedy guy acquired from Mets, probably a bench asset eventually.
18) Brett Lorin, RHP, Grade C: Projectable arm from 2008 draft, somewhat raw for a college pitcher.
19) Justin Thomas, LHP, Grade C: Seems to take well to bullpen use, could be fine utility pitcher.
20) Steven Hensley, RHP, Grade C: Another interesting college pitcher from 2008 draft, I think he could surprise if command sharpens up a bit more.
Others: Nathan Adcock, LHP; Denny Almonte, OF; Reegie Corona, INF; Tyson Gillies, OF; Gaby Hernandez, RHP; Donald Hume, LHP; Rob Johnson, C; Jose Lugo, LHP; Julio Morban, OF; Gabriel Noriega, SS; Efrain Nunez, OF; Carlos Peguero, OF; Andrew Pribanic, RHP.
As usual, don’t sweat so much about where the Grade C+/C types rank exactly on this list. After I get past the top 10 I don’t worry so much about exact placement, since I’m trying to concentrate on the book right now. Some of the Grade C guys could be C+ in the book, and vice versa.
SYSTEM IN BRIEF
The big trade with the Mets provides a quick boost for his list, adding a bit of depth to a system that needs it.
This system has considerable high risk/high reward talent. Halman and Triunfel are the epitome of that on the position player side, and Saunders,
The Mariners have put a lot of money into
Full reports on these players and over 1,000 others can be found in the 2009 Baseball Prospect Book. Pre-order for January 31st shipping now!
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Since this was debated in the discussion thread,
How well do you think the M’s system compares to other AL teams?
sorta above average
good in terms of upside, but their best prospects are raw-high risk guys, which could be bad news for an organization that really needs to rebuild. If it weren’t for that Bedard trade, their system could be elite right now…
The 2008 Rogelio Moret League Fantasy Baseball Champions!
by The Congo Hammer on Jan 2, 2009 7:46 PM EST up reply actions
Risk/Reward
This entire system is littered with them without any one “sure” thing with high upside.
It could swing either way given how well these players are developed.
Everett, Laird, Treanor, and E. Jackson. Print those WS tix now!
by sportznut3081 on Jan 2, 2009 7:54 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think we're that far behind the Rangers or A's systems.
I’m not doubting that both are better, but with a solid draft and getting the 2nd, 21st (maybe), 28th, and the second pick of the second round we could make up that distance considerably. You have to also look what we’d get if we start trading off our veterans (Beltre, Bedard, Wash). Most people considered the Rangers to have an extremely weak system in 2007…like BA ranked them 28. After they traded Tex, Gagne, and Loften and with five 1st round draft picks (Beaven-17, Main-24, Borbon-35, Ramirez-44, and Hunter-54) they went from one of the worst systems to fourth.
Talk to me in a year, and I bet we’re not that far behind or have better systems than them. Most of the guys in our system are pretty young too…I doubt we lose anyone to elidgeability next year in our top 20, which means they’re be considered prospects at this time next year – for what that’s worth.
I agree that the Mariners system can be very good very soon.
We have all those picks in 2009, and several in 2010 as well (1st round pick, 2 comp picks for Beltre if we keep him until the end of the season, possible sandwich picks from guys like Bedard, Washburn). It could be interesting.
Also, I really don't expect Fields to sign
It’s not that he doesn’t want to sign, but that Zduriencik would rather get that pick back in the ‘09 draft. From what I’ve read there’s a very small chance that he signs, unless he signs for slot.
Drafting a reliever in the first round is ridiculous. I don’t think relievers should be drafted until round 10 or later.
Relievers
If you limit yourself to not taking relievers until the 10th round, you’re cutting out a huge pool of options for your early rounds. Not a good draft philosophy.
If you don't draft "relievers" until after the 10th round
your not going to get any pitchers who throw hard unless your picking in the first half of the first round. By the end of the first round, most of the hard throwers considered sure-bet starters are off the board, and your going to stuck drafting guys with lower velocity but with better secondary stuff or command. I’d rather be poppin guys with more arm strength and give em the chance to delvelop secondary stuff, which if they don’t then stick em in the pen.
I think that's a misconception. There are hard throwers available late.
Shawn Kelley, who John has right below Fields, throws around 92-95 I believe and was an 11th or 13th round pick (can’t remember exactly). Last year Seattle drafted Luke Burnett in the 14th round, and he’s been clocked in the upper 90s.
Taking starters that end up as relievers in the end is a completely different story, because how are you supposed to know they won’t cut it as a starter? Mark Lowe (5th round) and J.J. Putz (6th) were drafted as starters, but obviously didn’t make it to the bigs in the rotation.
Drafting a pure reliever with an early pick seems very pointless to me. I’m not saying that none of your early round picks can’t BECOME relievers if they fail as starters (and there are your hard throwers), but drafting a college reliever AS a pro reliever just seems like a waste.
Drafting relievers early can make sense
The thing is it has to be for the right team. I would think it would only work well only for teams who build primarily though free agency. And those that are more often than not competing for a division crown. However, those teams are pretty few and far between. Other than that I completely agree with you.
I wouldn't put Carp in the top 15
Can’t hit a lefty, his defense is poor, and shows his frustrations on the field while in slumps. I saw him in left field and I thought I saw a poorman’s Chris Duncan.
Fields
Surprised he’s a C+ … kinda thought he would be a B-/B guy. I think most people agreed he was a first round caliber talent and he’s someone who doesn’t figure to need much time in the minors.
As far as Ramirez, BA has mentioned a Rafael Soriano comp two years in a row now (last year and this year) … anyone buy that comp?
Looks fair
I prefer Ramirez as the 2nd prospect in the system, but certainly, that is debatable.
yeah, but hey
that’s just my 2 cents. I like Ramirez a lot – I tend to think he gets a bit underrated. I get worried about Aumont and Halman a bit, for different reasons and between Ramirez/Pineda, I’d lean Ramirez, so yeah, I’d put him 2nd behind Triunfel, but it’s just me.
I don't think it's that crazy. I could have him as my 3rd prospect
I have very little faith in Halman. I think Aumont will be fine, though.
I posted a top 15 M's list a few weeks ago
And had Ramirez first.
i hear that
Josh fields has 3 plus pitches and one of those is already ML ready. Is that a fact or just a rumor? Anyone have a scouting report on him?
Fields
Free content from http://pgcrosschecker.com/draft/2008/Rounds/round1.aspx
“UPDATE (5/1): As mediocre as Fields was in 2007 as a junior, he’s been every bit as brilliant this spring. Until an uncharacteristic three-run inning in mid-May, Fields had been virtually perfect throughout the entire season and was still sporting a 2-2, 1.52 record with 16 saves as Georgia entered the SEC tournament. His true dominance can be seen by his hits-to-strikeout ratio: 29 innings, nine hits, 53 strikeouts. Two things stood out with Fields this year. First, he regained his command and ability to throw his 94-98 mph fastball over the plate early in counts and get ahead of hitters. Second, the power and bite on his curveball returned. When Fields is ahead in the count and throws his 81-84 mph hammer where he wants it, he’s virtually unhittable. He seems a shoe-in to be the first senior to hear his named called this year, possibly in the middle of the first round.—DAVID RAWNSLEY”
2 plus pitches i think
but a C+ is an idiotic ranking for a guy who should make a pretty quick impact and his worst case is probably a good 7th or 8th inning guy at the very worst even if he can’t hold down a closer’s role, the mariners have a weak system, he should be well into the top 10 easily if he signs
by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 2, 2009 9:46 PM EST up reply actions
He may impact the backstop at Safeco a few times, yes.
The guy doesn’t have MLB ready control. Yes, he struck out 63 batters in 37.1 innings in 2008. But he also walked 22 batters in the same 37.1 innings, along with 4 wild pitches and 4 hit batters. He needs to find the strikezone before he puts his fastball and curveball to good use.
by JLC on Jan 2, 2009 9:53 PM EST up reply actions
Given the weak state of the AL West, Ichiro's advancing years, falling FA prices and
the high risk nature of these prospects, does it not make sense to trade these guys for proven talent and sign some FA to go for it in 2009?
Their upside may mean high trade value but their high risk makes it unlikely that more than a couple become good players, meaning you can’t really count on them to form a nucleus.
Seattle’s solid fanbase means they have money to go get FAs.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
But other GMs will know they are high risk.
And will only offer up proven talent that accordingly matches with that high risk nature.
Besides, I don’t think all of our top prospects are high risk. Adam Moore, for example, I think is very low risk, as is Michael Saunders, Dennis Raben, and Mike Carp. A lot of our guys are just plain young.
by JLC on Jan 2, 2009 9:44 PM EST up reply actions
I'm not sure Saunders is low risk given the K's. I also think Halman, Triumfel and Aumont have trade value.
I also don’t see these guys having a high probability of forming a good nucleus. You’re hoping for a bunch of free swingers to all come through. I can see it in a couple of non-essential guys, like the Rangers have in Beltre, but not from everybody.
Cash is like gold! in today’s market and the Mariners have a solid fanbase they don’t want to lose.
Carp, Raben and Moore aren’t going to be good enough to form a nucleus but they have a bit of trade value — maybe to boost the pen.
It's not the results, it's how you look going about those results -- Tim McCarver
by WaddellCanseco on Jan 2, 2009 10:56 PM EST up reply actions
I agree that Saunders might not be as high-risk as some say
The strikeouts are pretty bad, though. Walking at a slightly above-average clip (which he does) could help him get around it. Obviously shortening his long swing should be high on his list as well.
I'm fine with the K's as long as he keeps up the BB's.
I don’t think he’ll be a superstar, but I think he’s a fairly safe bet to be an average regular with a higher ceiling if everything comes together. I think his best attribute is the above-agerage defense.
I don't have any major complaints.
I didn’t include Josh Fields for obvious reasons, but aside from Tuiasosopo’s grade (I have him at C+ for now) I think I’m generally on board with what you have here.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 2, 2009 9:10 PM EST reply actions
I am willing to give Tuiasosopo another year before I categorize him as a role player.
I think he’s just a couple adjustments away from really turning it on offensively. Hope I’m right.
I think Tui's age throws people off, too.
He was only 22 in 2008 and will be 23 near the start of 2009.. It feels like he’s been around forever, but he’s still young enough that he could figure it out and become a useful major league ball player.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 2, 2009 9:24 PM EST up reply actions
Fans treat him like a 1st round pick, as well
because he was the Mariners first pick that year (3rd round) and received 1st round money.
Dude signed for 2.29 mil.
That was the ninth highest bonus that year. I think a lot of expectations were put on him.
Robert Rohrbaugh
Left handed starting pitcher in the Marinres system: where is he now? Is he still with the organization?
Balentien
Too many at bats, but wondering what the consensus is on this guy. Will he become a capable regular or will he quickly be passed by Saunders?
His fate is in his own hands.
If he starts to hit then he’ll still have a place on this club. I think Saunders pretty much becomes our starting left fielder in 2010 regardless of what Wlad does, but Wlad could still end up as DH or a platoon bench bat or something.
Fans are typically idiots.
by The Typical Idiot Fan on Jan 5, 2009 6:10 PM EST up reply actions
More reason why the Mariners should not sign Josh Fields.
"And you just don't get it, you keep it copacetic..."
A very good list
I just have a few comments. First of all, I really think Halman is too high considering his ability to make contact and take a walk at the plate right now. If you look at his minor league K/BB ratios and K% and compare them to current MLB players, you will find few or maybe even no regular players that K so much and walk so little. Right now, Halman struckout in nearly half of his ABs in the AFL and his 2008 minor league rate is not much more impressive. Realistically, he needs to improve and both areas and then hope he does not take a hit on those improvements when he is promoted and pitchers adjust to him. I know he has immense power potential, much like Balentien, but Balentien could take a walk in the minors yet he still struggled greatly in his first run of the MLB. Halman has a great wall to climb.
Second, I think Moore should be a solid B. It is fairly rare to find a catcing prospect who can OPS .900 in AA. It is even rares to find one with good defense, he still needs to work more on his recieving skills but he is supposed to have a strong arm to aid him. I should also say I would personally put both more Moore in Ramirez over Pineda. Several people have said Pineda does not have impressive stuff but I do not know enough to say that with certainty.
Finally, I am wondering what your opinion is on Johan Limonta. I think he would be an interesting honorable mention. He has not exactly failed to hit since he came over from Cuba. I have read little scouting wise on him, maybe he is not seen as projectable so that is why he is left of, just interested.
by tdot mariner fan on Jan 3, 2009 2:05 PM EST reply actions
John?
Where would Carp, Cleto, and Carrera rank on the Mets prospect list if they hadn’t been traded?
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