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St. Louis Cardinals Prospect Discussion

I'm now working on the Mariners. The next team on the list is the St. Louis Cardinals, so use this thread to discuss the system.

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Jesse Todd

I expect big things from him in 2009, and hopefully a spot in St Louis. I wonder where he will be ranked, Top 5 probably due to having a weak system?

by Ralpho316 on Jan 2, 2009 12:15 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Weak System?

They are better than most give them credit for with Rasmus and Wallace leading the system. They also have some interesting bats with Daryl Jones, Bryan Anderson, David Freese, Allen Craig. Plus, Chris Perez is still a prospect, so he’ll be up there. So, Todd could be Top 5, but that doesn’t make it a poor system as Todd has turned into a pretty good prospect in his own right.

I’m more curious about how Jaime Garcia will be ranked considering his recent injury.

by thudean on Jan 2, 2009 12:22 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Todd

is intriguing to me. Great numbers in ’08, but not a highly-thought-of prospect without strikeout numbers and stuff. He may have gotten a little lucky this year, but obviously moved quickly. He seems like the perfect project for Dave Duncan. Hopefully Duncan will get started on Todd in the first half of ’09.

by richieabernathy on Jan 2, 2009 12:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

that weak system

was rated by BA as the 8th best system in the majors.

Hyperventilating prospect geek/Overrated Faberge egg lover
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 2, 2009 8:26 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Kozma???

Underrated prospect . . .or most underrated prospect?

by mrkupe on Jan 2, 2009 12:36 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Under

I think he is gonna be pretty good…I think he gets overlooked because he struggled upon his late season promotion..if he stayed the entire year in Lo-A…he would be fine

by NYSOX on Jan 2, 2009 1:13 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

More like most boring prospect.

by aCone419 on Jan 2, 2009 1:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Boring?

Nah. He’s a true shortstop with some impressive skills for a player his age. He also makes plenty of contact. It’s a hell of a package . . .not sure why he doesn’t get more talk. I suppose he isn’t as flashy or as toolsy as your prototypical young middle infielder top prospect, but eh.

by mrkupe on Jan 2, 2009 6:58 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

boring is sorta understandable

a lot of 55’s, maybe 60 fielding and 30 power. The bar for shortstops is pretty low offensively, so having an above average SS in the system is valuable.

Hyperventilating prospect geek/Overrated Faberge egg lover
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 2, 2009 8:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Sleepers?

Richard Castillo is not only a sleeper in the Cards. system..but I feel in all baseball

by NYSOX on Jan 2, 2009 1:14 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Numbers are solid

Isn’t he small?

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com

by Baseball Handyman on Jan 2, 2009 5:25 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Tommy Pham

He is a lot like Daryl Jones. Tons of raw athetlic talent that just hasn’t been realized yet.

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 2, 2009 10:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I've seen both

and came away more impressed with Pham’s athleticism, actually. More power, more speed, better arm. Now if he could only make contact…

Hyperventilating prospect geek/Overrated Faberge egg lover
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 3, 2009 12:38 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Prospect List

I have a head cold that has mostly taken my ability to think clearly, but I’ll try to throw one together anyways.

1. Colby Rasmus- He’s the clear cut number one in this system.

2. Brett Wallace- One of the best college hitters of 08, transitioned to pro-game well, has some chance to stick at third for a while.

3. Bryan Anderson- Still hitting for average, draws some walks, and passed ball problem continues to improve. The power has never shown up, but you’re still talking about a league average bat on the right side of the defensive scale.

4.Chris Perez- Little left to say, has great fastball slider combo, and command issues. He’ll be pretty vital to the success of St Louis this season.

5. Jaime Garcia- Not surprisingly underwent TJ surgery this year. Still the best starting prospect in the organization. TJ survivor-ship is high So he still ranks near the top.

6. Daryl Jones- For quite sometime we’ve heard about the tremendous tools, but haven’t seen production to match. This year’s 352 PAs, .326/.403/.476, .385 wOBA at Palm beach, and .290/.404/.500, .380 wOBA at Springfield finally show results. Might be relegated to left field, could look something like a Carl Crawford type player. reminds me personally of a Curtis Granderson skill set but looks sorta like a left handed B.J. Upton.

7. David Freese- At twenty five he’s probably the hardest to put this high, but his ascension from A ball to AAA while posting a 306/.361/.511, .387 wOBA line. All while reports have suggested he’ll be above average at third base. He could be a league average third baseman in 09, maybe better.

8. Jason Motte- Having a reliever with one predominate pitch shouldn’t make him a top ten prospect. Unless of course he somehow struck out 111 batters in 66.2 innings in AAA and then continued with a little slice of slicing up big leaguers with a 11 IP, 16K/3BB, 45% GB, 1.02 FIP line.

9. Jess Todd- A lot of people are excited about todd. He does have pitchability on his side, and of course his ground ball ways, His Numbers are good, not great 103 IP, 81K/24BB, 53% GB, 4.37 FIP at springfield, 22.2 IP, 20K/10BB, 48% GB, 5.63 FIP at Memphis. Probably never be the front of the line starter some expect.

10. Clayton Morteson- I really like the guys stuff, not a big fan of his demeanor. His numbers aren’t tremendously worse than Todd’s, but morteson was rushed pretty badly, spending the majority of the season at AAA one year removed from college. I’ll admit, I’m a little higher on him than most, but with his stuff, he could be a front on the line starter, if he can manage better control.

11. Pete Kozma- Was pretty inconsistent with his first full season, which left a lot of different perspectives about Pete. 434 PA, .284/.362/.398, .339 wOBA Line in A ball might be what to expect from him, even though he was quite streaky. Could go either way in 09.

12. Allen Craig- Reminds me of an older Rich Aurillia because he manages to get a lot done while not looking very good doing it. I can see why scouts aren’t very impressed with his overall game, but overall he’s impressed me. The bat should get him to the bigs within the next year or so.

13. Jon Jay- Very high floor, moderate ceiling. Jay will be a very useful player, he’s pretty darn good in center, has a good approach at the plate and will be the old school managers quintessential number 2 hitter because of his aggressiveness and situational awareness. However, he has put on a lot of lower half weight since last year and is probably no longer the lead off candidate he once was, but will probably smack some home runs and some doubles on occasion.

14. Mitch Boggs- I don’t know if there could be a less exciting pitching prospect, but at the same time his success and durability speak well. Does possess a nice sinking fastball, but doesn’t quite have the development on his secondary stuff to make him consistent at this point. could move to the bullpen if those don’t come along.

15.Tyler Henley- 367 PAs, .280/.341/.438, .331 wOBA at high A ball, while struggling with some injuries. palm beach is a pretty hard place to hit, and he was slowed by the injury. His skill set is very close to jay’s, with just a little less track record.

16. Adam Ottavino- Kind of a rough season. Okay, a really rough season. Springfield’s a tough place to pitch in, and Adam still maintained a decent k rate with 95K in 115 IP, even had a good 45% ground ball rate. Don’t look too much farther, it only gets ugly after that.

17. Niko Vasquez- A few too many question marks for me. Will he stick at shortstop, are the scouts concerns about bat speed valid, is his plate discipline going to stand up at higher levels? I like the skill set thus far (237 PA, .312/.405/.460, .384 wOBA in rookie ball) but he’s going to have to do it a while longer. Small sample size in a ball is only the smallest bit concerning ( 44 PA, .128/.205/.154, .175 wOBA)

18. Tyler Herron- finesse righty? it almost seems like it. Maybe AA will treat him better next year, 81.1 IP, 59K/29BB, 44% GB, 4.81 FIP in 08, but his line at palm beach 62 IP, 46K/14BB, 49% GB, 3.85 FIP, wasn’t bad.

19.Lance Lynn- Exactly what the cardinals look for in a pitcher, which means his ceiling and floor are pretty close together. reminds me a little of Joe blanton.

20. Take your pick- Luke gregorson, fernando salas, Richard Castillo, Fransisco Samuel, Steven Hill, P. J. Walters, Adam Reifer, Shane Peterson, nick addition, Fransisco Rivera, Peter Parise, Roberta de la cruz, or Jermaine Curtis.

There is a lot of depth to this system, but it’s a little short on impact players. If there was a competition for how many role players from a system can produce, I would pick this system as the favorite.

I'm Glad I'm not an Astros Fan

by Dave Barry on Jan 2, 2009 1:40 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Vazquez > Kozma

I don’t like Kozma much at all.

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com

by Baseball Handyman on Jan 2, 2009 5:27 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lance Lynn Deserves More Love

Like top 10 love!

he would be between 7-9 on my list. I liked him enough to even write about him for my blog.

Lynn

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com

by Baseball Handyman on Jan 2, 2009 5:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

He'll get it

his work load was pretty high this year and he didn’t pitch very many innings as a pro. One thing that is concerning, he had a velocity drop during his last year in college. When it comes to fast moving pitchers, Lynn will move very quickly, but expecting his ceiling to be very high would be a mistake.

His placement here isn’t really a knock on him however, there are just several similar pitchers farther along ahead of him.

I'm Glad I'm not an Astros Fan

by Dave Barry on Jan 2, 2009 5:45 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Lynn

Lynn could rise up the charts if he regains the stuff he had his sophomore year at Ole Miss.

I had a chance to watch him in his regional start against Missouri and a conference game against Kentucky and he just wasn’t that impressive. 88-91 MPH, little movement, slurvy curveball that hung quite a bit. His slider had decent movement, though it wasn’t real tight and I don’t remember him spotting it that well. His main strength was his command of his fastball.

I’m hoping that better conditioning and rest helps him regain that 91-93 MPH fastball he used to have. In turn it should help him tighten up his secondary stuff.

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 3, 2009 10:04 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe not this year, but

he’s surefire for next year’s list

Hyperventilating prospect geek/Overrated Faberge egg lover
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 2, 2009 8:28 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The more I think about it

the more I like the depth of the system. Ryde Rodriguez, edgar lara, joey hage, yunier castillo, juan Mosquera, david kopp, jon edwards, Andrew Brown, Donovan solano, Tony Cruz, Shane robinson, Daniel Descalso, Justin fiske, Samuel Freeman, Josh Dew, and derrick hooker are all names that could slide onto the back of this list

I'm Glad I'm not an Astros Fan

by Dave Barry on Jan 3, 2009 12:55 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Roberto De la Cruz (aka Pena)

could also make his way on the bottom of the list if bonus amounts mean anything. Tyler Herron and Tyler Henley are other names to note.

by nmstar on Jan 3, 2009 1:00 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

they’re on the list above, many of these players in the lower tier will fill top 20 list next year because so many of the higher prospects have the opportunity to lose their status next season.

I'm Glad I'm not an Astros Fan

by Dave Barry on Jan 3, 2009 1:07 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Luhnow seemed to be

pretty high on him, calling him by far the most impressive all around player in the instructional league. he said he could possibly start in Batavia, leapfrogging the GCL and the Appy. So we at least know the Cards are high on him.

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 3, 2009 4:18 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Mark Diapoules

Diapoules is one of my favorite pitchers in the Cardinal’s system. He’s not as heralded as some of the other guys but he supposedly has a good sinker/slider combo. The numbers he put up for a 19/20 year old in the Midwest League and Florida State League were very impressive.

I don’t think he projects as anything really special but I think he is still someone to keep an eye on next year. He could be starting in AA at age 20.

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 3, 2009 10:11 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

he is sort of interesting.

not a real high velo guy, but he does get a ton of groundballs. his strikeouts dropped quite a bit after jumping up from the MWL to the FSL.

I'll be the one overrating these Faberge' eggs, thank you very much!
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 3, 2009 4:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jonathan Edwards

I think he could be in the top 20. He is one of my favorite players in the cardinals system. He was drafted out of high school in 2006 and has since put up 274/368/477 line. He has had 555 at bats where he has hit 22 homers and 41 doubles. I have seen him play and he has a cannon for an arm, but he only has average range. I think he would end up being slightly above average defender in right. He does Strike out way to much but he makes up for it a little with how much he walk.

Yadi is my hero

by Big Phil on Jan 2, 2009 3:22 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

sleeper

he is a sleeper but i dont think i would put him in my top 20. still not enough production in full season ball, and i think the birds have a lot of interesting guys in the #10 to #20 spots. he kind of reminds me of joe mather and chris duncan…tall high school guys that took a few years to figure things out. i hope 2008 was a real step forward for edwards. he is still young and has good tools.

by dmb60614 on Jan 2, 2009 3:37 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

huge power

but huge holes in the swing. could be a 3TO type of corner OF, and you’re right, he does have a rocket arm. But he’s far away and I’d like to see him cut down the K’s from 30% to 20% before I can take him more seriously.

Hyperventilating prospect geek/Overrated Faberge egg lover
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 2, 2009 8:29 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Strengths and Weaknesses of the System

Strengths:
-Hitters
-Relief pitching
-Back of the rotation pitching
-Talent spread throughout the system

Weaknesses:
-Top to middle of the rotation pitching(other than the surgically repaired Jaime Garcia)

According to Jim Callis(I believe) of BA, the Cardinals have the 8th best system in baseball. The high ranking is no doubt because of the two guys at the top: Colby Rasmus and Brett Wallace. Anytime you have two highly respected hitters who project to fill the 4-5 spots in your lineup for the next 10 years, your system is going to be ranked high.

However, guys like Daryl Jones, Jaime Garcia, Bryan Anderson, Jess Todd, Chris Perez, Lance Lynn, Tyler Greene, Clayton Mortensen, Mitch Boggs, Peter Kozma, Adam Reifer and one of my sleepers Deryk Hooker give the system a very nice amount of depth.

The only real flaw that I can find in the Cardinals farm system is the lack of a starting pitcher that projects as middle of the rotation or better(other than Garcia who is healing from surgery).
I don’t see Jess Todd or Clayton Mortensen as much better than a Braden Looper/Jeff Suppan type. Their stuff seems good enough to be able to handle starting in the bigs, although Mortensen needs a little more work, but I can’t see them dominating many teams like a #1-3 starter can.
Mitch Boggs has the fastball of an ace but the secondary stuff of a AAAA pitcher. He might be a #3 in time but I can’t predict it yet.
With the 19th pick in the 2009 draft, I’m hopeful the Cardinals can fill this void. Maybe with a guy like Zack Wheeler or Andy Oliver.

I think one of the strengths of the system that is overlooked is the abundance of good relievers(Perez, Motte, Reifer, Salas, Samuel and maybe Perdomo if the Giants don’t keep him and McCormick if the Cards finally move him to the pen).
We have seen the importance of these prospects this winter as Khalil Greene was acquired for Mark Worrell and a PTBNL, which some speculated could be another reliever. We also saw Mark DeRosa and Kevin Gregg get traded for relief pitching prospects.
A good relief pitching prospect seems to have gained a lot of value as trade bait over the years. Also, take a look at the contract Kyle Farnsworth just signed. Give me Jason Motte for 400K instead of Farnsworth for 4.5 mil or whatever he got.

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 2, 2009 4:01 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

draft

UB, you know we rarely disagree on the draft, and it is the same story this year. i would love to get wheeler or oliver in the first round.

by fewgoodcards on Jan 3, 2009 12:20 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler is my dream pick at 19 right now. I do find it hard to believe, though, that he will actually last til 19 unless he pulls a Harold Martinez or hurts his arm.

He’s 6’4", touches 95, has a great curveball and solid command. His mechanics remind me of Roger Clemens’. Does anyone know why Wheeler committed to Kennesaw State?

by UncleBuck44 on Jan 3, 2009 10:15 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jones could be better than Rasmus

Jones could be the next Granderson and will be pressing Rasmus by mid year IMO. If Rasmus has another slow start, he will be passed.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 2, 2009 6:03 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Probably not

Jones is a nice talent, but watching them play there is a very large gap in skill set. Off the top of my head would you rather have Carl Crawford or Grady Sizemore. That is the ultimate upside for Jones and Rasmus, respectively.

I'm Glad I'm not an Astros Fan

by Dave Barry on Jan 2, 2009 6:15 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Wow

That’s REALLY REALLY high praise. I am very bullish on Jones, but I don’t think either is that good.

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.com

by Baseball Handyman on Jan 3, 2009 2:32 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

The skill sets

are quite similar for both players listed. Only time will tell if they’ll reach the level of consistency of the two players, but their ceilings are quite high.

I'm Glad I'm not an Astros Fan

by Dave Barry on Jan 3, 2009 3:21 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

no.

Hyperventilating prospect geek/Overrated Faberge egg lover
Future Redbirds

by erik on Jan 2, 2009 8:30 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Did the Cards ever send the PNL in the Greene deal? maybe one of the #20 guys or Boggs?

by RJ24 on Jan 2, 2009 7:46 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

not yet

I think the Padres have through March to make their decision. It is said that they have their choice from three players: two are pitchers and the other is a position player.

by nmstar on Jan 3, 2009 12:57 AM EST up reply actions   0 recs

Jon Jay is very much under valued

If we didn’t have so many OF prospects he would be near or the top OF prospect in a lot of systems.

Adam Reifer has major upside. BA considered him the top pitching prospect in the Penn league. 80 Fastball, 70 Slider.

The two things the Cardinals do not lack is OF and Relief Pitching prospects

Stat Whore

by FlimtotheFlam on Jan 2, 2009 10:24 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

Posting Order?

Does John do these in a particular order? I came here specifically to see what grade he gave to Colby Rasmus, and he’s doing the Cardinals now. Is there a set order for these teams, or does he just know what I’m thinking?

by fps31520 on Jan 3, 2009 2:32 PM EST reply actions   0 recs

random

order is more or less random.

I’m behind today and the Cardinals won’t be up until Sunday night.

by John Sickels on Jan 3, 2009 6:33 PM EST up reply actions   0 recs

GET OUT OF MY HEAD, JOHN!

I figured it was random, I just thought maybe you made a post with the order and I missed it.

Take your time, I made a gentelmen’s bet with a friend of mine on what your grade for Rasmus will be. So, try to give him the exact grade I’ve given him.

by fps31520 on Jan 4, 2009 11:05 AM EST reply actions   0 recs

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