Killa's 2009 Movers: Brett Cecil

Brett Cecil-LHP-Toronto-22-AAA-6’3”-220

2008:High A: 10.1IP-6H-2BB-11K-1.74ERA-0.77WHIP-2.91FIP

AA: 77.2-66-23-87-2.55-1.15-2.76

AAA:30.2-28-16-31-4.11-1.43-3.31

Brett Cecil was the 38th overall pick in 2007, signing for $810,000 out of the University of Maryland, where he was the team’s closer.  Cecil’s repertoire features a low 90s sinking fastball and a plus slider, while his changeup and curve are still works in progress.  His arsenal has generated plenty of groundballs (59% in AA, 69% in AAA) and strikeouts so far in his career.  In his 2007 professional debut in Low A, Cecil posted a 2.33 FIP in 49.2 IP with 56 Ks, allowing only 36 hits and 11 walks. 

In 2008, Cecil moved through 3 levels, pitching 118.2 innings and amassing 128Ks against 41 BBs and 100 Hits.  In his time in AA, Cecil got progressively better as the season wore on:

May: 8%BB/PA, 21.8% K/PA

June: 6.7%/25.8%

July: 4.9%/32.4%

Given his strong statistical performance and two plus pitches, Cecil looks like a decent bet to become a #3SP in the majors, with some more upside if the curve or changeup continues to develop.  The main concern most have is durability, as he was a reliever in college and was kept on strict pitch counts in 2008.  The Jays have converted Marcum and Bush in recent years however, so they do have experience in this area.

Cecil is already in the top half(#44) of my 2009 Top 100 Prospects, and could move into the Top 20 in 2010.  This is probably the last year you can pick him up in fantasy leagues before everyone knows about him.  He should need only one more year of success and experience in AAA before a late 2009 callup.  For fantasy purposes, Cecil has the potential to post a solid ERA and WHIP with good K numbers in his prime.