We agree that walk rates and strikeout rates show a demonstrated skill set: plate discipline.

We agree that home runs (and, to a lesser extent, doubles and triples) show a demonstrated skill set: power.

It’s not much of a stretch to say that, in most cases, high average in the minor leagues correlates with good contact skills. It’s also not much of a stretch to say that stolen bases (and perhaps triples) are a reflection of a players speed and baserunning abilities.

So the following stats are useful

AVG 2B 3B HR K BB SB CS

Look familiar? It’s a stat line ;)

I don’t mean to belittle you (though I probably am, for which I apologize), but while I agree that minor league stats aren’t great in predicting player performance, when coupled with scouting reports, they are useful to a certain degree.

His playing position could determine his playing time.

Generally projection systems wont do that unless the player has a history of injuries. In this case, CHONE is just using trends with other first or second year players to determine the possible playing time of Davis in 2009.

a misunderstanding of which player was being discussed, the whole thing is kind of pointless now.

He’ll have plenty of oportunity to see if he can do it or not. The point of the concern isn’t to rail on him but to temper the enthusiasm with realistic caution.

Also, overcoming same-handedness is only going to be common with right handed hitters. One of the few lefties who has a measurable and consistent reverse-platoon split that I’ve seen in the last dozen or so years is Ichiro Suzuki.

Who?

I made no attempt to discredit you personally aside from responding to someone calling me a moron and saying I should be banned. I have every right to respond to that, an said reply was accurate. I also called you biased in response to you calling me a tool.

Making it even more ridiculous is how often you bring up people being ranger fans, trying to discredit me personally rather than any points I’ve made, and implying several times that I don’t understand various projections and such.

There are at least 4 posts in this thread where you either did not reply to a fair counter point that had no personal attacks, or replied only to say something unrelated.

As for putting too much emphasis on a projection for a players first full year with a 25 hr projeciton as if it were some kind of career projection…

“.265/.315/.490 with 25 HRs is nice, but people are getting a little nuts”
“Apparently if I dont have a .265 25HR 1B in my top 20 prospects I must be some sort of monster”

is the hyper-bowl.

is a 3TO player and they all have the same skill set. Naturally they’re going to be right in line with each other.

The other guys you neglected to mention on low swing percentage and SO rate (walk rate for emphasis):

Bobby Abreu – 17.9% (10.7)
Joe Mauer – 9.3 (13.5)
Chone Figgins – 17.7 (12.0)
Curtis Granderson – 20.1 (11.4)
Jason Bay – 23.7 (12.3)
Troy Glaus – 19.1 (13.8)
Jimmy Rollins – 9.9 (9.4)
Mark Teixeira – 16.2 (14.5%)

Your theory holds no water.

Assuming he’s not going to be DHing, then the sum of the value has to take into account his glove as well. A ~.370 ish wOBA is a 3 win player (adjusted for position) and is good enough to make up for some loss with the glove. Unless he’s a -15 run player with the leather, he’ll still be quite valuable.

In the past you have stated things such as:

I recall you saying this consistently:

I have formed the conclusion, based on looking at the guys who have it
that high BABIP has little to do with speed and much to do with line drive rate and the force with which a player hits the ball. (See the Chris Carter thread for more on this.) Fred Lewis has league-average line drive skills and sub-average power. I don’t see any reason why I should believe that his BABIP is any kind of legitimate skill.

Here is another statement you have made regarding BABIP:

You would expect a much better than .296 BABIP from a slugger
David Ortiz is no one’s idea of a speedster and hits into the shift to boot, and his career BABIP is .311. Jack Cust’s career BABIP is .340. Ryan Howard’s is .332.

Most guys who consistently post BABIPs above league average are power hitters, not Ichiro-type speedsters. The current leaderboard goes Bradley, C. Jones, Manny, Berkman, Holliday, Fred Lewis, Kemp, Nady, Pujols, Hawpe. There are a few outliers having fluke seasons (hello, Fred Lewis) but most of those guys are mashers.

I find it odd that Davis (a power hitter) will not hit for a good BABIP in your opinion considering that he has met your criteria. Personally, I am beginning to see your A’s bias

I think you’re backwards. BABIP fluctuates wildly for ground ball hitters. Chone Figgins, for example, has lived and died by groundballs finding holes. Lots of other ground ball hitters have the same problem. They either get hits, or they don’t. You’ll probably find that the speedier guys with high ground ball rates CAN have higher BABIPs then most other people, but they aren’t consistent. Ichiro is one of the more consistent ground ball hitting lefties with his BABIP, but even he fluctuates.

Back when Vidro was in his prime, he was the sort of guy you’re referring to: relatively fast, ground ball hitter, some decent pop in the bat, but when he lost his legs he lost his speed and his pop and everything went south. He still managed to smoke and mirrors his way into a decent average in 2007 with an unsustainable BABIP.

but for what very little its worth, I just want to throw out that davis was as good/better away from arlington.

project him to get worse and project Anderson to get better. Completely ignore the fact that that Davis has much more power potential than Lars and the fact that he has never hit below .277 at any level. Forget the fact that he was athletic enought to play 3B and OF and he is actually an ok 1B/ And only then is Lars a better prospect.

Since when is that the standard for prospects?

Everyone agrees Bill James’s projection is too high for 2009, but for his prime years? That season’s wRAA is 29.2.

using a computer projection to find a wRAA (which is a totally bullshit and made up stat) is absurd

Fine by me.

a) he walked more than davis
b) has more secondary skills
c) thats just Justin, Longoria def. didnt k as much as davis

Throwing out a player’s entire minor league career (1,151 PA) due to “sample size” is prima facie a terrible way to go about analyzing prospects.

As for the historical data, give me the evidence, don’t just tell me that it exists somewhere out in the ether. Give me any evidence that a player with Davis’ statistical profile is doomed to maintain the K-rate he debuted with. This is a very simple request.