But for someone to call me incompetent and defend Adam’s article to be the end all be all without doing any of his own(Lovejoy not Adam) research is unfair. Adam certainly creates an interesting discussion, though I would argue that while E/GP isn’t a valid absolute defense metric it shouldn’t be discounted as easily as most would. Errors are important, they do portray defensive value beyond range.

Your missing the point.

You talk about a universe of 7. It doesn’t sound as if the author struggled to find those 7, but it isn’t all that exist. I pointed out one that wasn’t on the list.

Exactly. It isn’t all that exists which is the point its a ridiculously small sample size that has no predictive value. What the author was trying to say is that those players high error totals in the minor leagues didn’t have an affect on their future play as a major leaguer, therefore we shouldn’t be too worried about Andrus.

What I am saying is that those are 7 players who all have a better defensive rating them him in the minor leagues. One thing that isn’t taken into account is the standard deviations between these stats. Is good 6.5 in the minor leagues and bad 2.5? Is good 4.5 and bad 1.5?

What I am showing is that the people Adan selected actually had about the E/G that most established good fielders had. Its important to note the the difference between Andrus (3.5 E/G) and those players Adam lists is significant.

A player with a 4.0 (the lowest Adam presents) would be 6 errors better than Andrus and therefore 3 runs better(see Tom Tango as I said before). As Adam moves on further, he is picking even better minor league defensive players, this being even better error wise than Andrus. Again, I am not talking about range here because there is no minor league play by play data available.

As near as I can tell you then go on to say that the people who were best defensively (according to the highly variable metric that Fangraphs uses) also had higher error totals in the minors. That supports the point that error totals aren’t determinative or precise, something you seem to argue against.

First, I didn’t say the people were the best had high error totals. I just put them all in the perspective of Adam’s article. Clearly the SD is very small for E/G in the minor leagues.

Second, Fangraphs uses play by play data so it isn’t some computer putting every batted ball into a computer. Mitchel Lichtman is actually analyzing each play. I wouldn’t call them variable at all.

All I ever said was that error totals have to be taken in context, aren’t determinative, and vary due to a host of factors outside of the fielding ability of the player. You seem to be bothered by that. I guess you could say that me challenging the logic of those who conclude otherwise about error totals is referring to you as incompetent. I say its calling the conclusion illogical. I also don’t need to "research" because the author was successful in demonstrating his point. In the end your research seems to support his argument as well.

Obviously I have agreed that there are outside factors. I said many times that the reason for the increased E/G has to do with MLB caliber 2nd 3rd baseman. You just took what I said and said it a second time. How do I seem bothered by that?

Remarkably, you are certain that Andrus has been worse than any of those fielders. That’s a pretty wild claim. You also conclude that his error totals will decline. That’s not a certainty. And you throw in a shot at the author, partly because you don’t think guys like Troy Tulowitzki are good defenders.

How is it a wild claim that Andrus has been worse?

Troy Tulowitzki — 30 errors in 121 minor league games, 1 error every 4.0 games.
Khalil Greene — 27 errors in 173 minor league games, 1 error every 6.4 games.
Edgar Renteria — 40 errors in 169 minor league games, 1 error every 4.2 games.
Adam Everett — 75 errors in 443 minor league games, 1 error every 5.9 games.
Erick Aybar — 119 errors in 475 minor league games, 1 error every 4.0 games.
Cristian Guzman — 32 errors in 140 minor league games, 1 error every 4.4 games.
Tony Pena — 103 errors in 462 minor league games, 1 error every 4.5 games.
Elvis Andrus – 95 Errors in 340 minor league games, 1 error in every 3.5.

He has been worse. As I said before and i’ll repeat. Errors are by no means absolute, but they do have a baring on defense.

When did I say that Tulowitzki wasn’t a good defender? I’m pretty sure that those words never came out of my mouth..

URZ/150(Overall Rank) (Bill James) (Past two Years, min 500 Innings in the Field)
Tulowitzki 1.6 (22th) (4) Better Rating Rookie Year from BJ
Greene -7.1 (33rd) (-4)
Renteria -.7 (25th) (-9)
Everett 17.8 (4th) (-1) Highly Rated in Past by BJ
Aybar 10.6 (9th) (7)
Guzman -2.7 (29th) (+15)
Pena 14.1 (6th) (-2)

I would first argue Adam didn’t pick the best fielders he picked ones that he assumed had high error totals. However we we look at the previous chart we see they are on par with what most had in the minors. Secondly, I never said Tulo was a bad defender. But he did have a bad year. (I love the guy traded for him in Fantasy)

My research and Adam’s:

I think that minor league error totals are what they are. Just errors. The issue is that without play by play data we don’t know if it was a lazy throw or a play deep in the hole. So we’ll have to assume that it was a mix between the two for someone as highly rated as Andrus.

What my research certainly shows is that there is a significant difference between playing defense in the minor leagues and the major leagues. We’ve discussed the variables so there is no reason to go further with that.

For Adam’s research I would have (in a perfect world) liked it to include many more players so we could determined what a good or bad E/G ratio was. I also would have tried to through each SS in the league and see how many more (or less) assists and putouts Andrus had to try and conclude a coorlation.