Travis Snider or Colby Rasmus (for fantasy purposes)
by soxkid on Jan 15, 2009 12:42 AM EST
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PrintInteresting question for debate. Please write some feedback instead of JUST voting.
I'm strictly talking about offensive numbers here.
I have the #3 overall pick in my dynasty MiLB draft, and it's known that Price/Wieters will go 1 & 2, so I'm left with a tough choice.
I've narrowed it down to Snider & Rasmus because I feel like both could help my team in 2009, and that's somewhat important to me, seeing how I think I can compete this year. Would it make more sense to grab one of them, or go for a guy like Alvarez who probably won't help me at all this year?
It's a 20 team $$ dynasty league and the categories & my current roster are as follows:
(R, HR, RBI, BB, SB, AVG, Doubles+Triples)
(W, ERA, WHIP, K, QS, HLD, Saves)
C. Mike Napoli
1B. Pablo Sandoval (C, 3B)
2B. Alexi Casilla
3B. Mark DeRosa (2B, OF)
SS. Rafael Furcal
OF. Matt Holliday, Nick Markakis, Manny Ramirez
UT. Jim Thome
BN. Mike Fontenot, Travis Buck, Michael Bourn
SP. Roy Oswalt, Rich Harden, Derek Lowe, Dustin McGowan, Jonathan Sanchez, Todd Wellemeyer, Tim Redding
RP. Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, Hong-Chih Kuo, Ramon Ramirez, Ryan Franklin, Santiago Casilla
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Snider
Rasmus is considerably overrated.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Forgot Snider and Rasmus
Trade that pick for a 1B or a SP… or both. Pablo Sandoval??? That’s brutal, even for a 20 team league. Is it 20 team NL only?
You definitely need a better 1B option to compete. You could probably use one more solid starting pitcher, too. Oswalt and Lowe are good but you cant count on Harden to stay healthy and the other guys arent good options. Wellemeyer and Redding are non factors, Mcgowan is hurt. Sanchez is talented but not something you can count on – especially as your #3/4.
how is wellemeyer a non-factor?
I’m sorry but in a 20 team league a guy with this line:
13 W, 3.71 ERA, 134 K’s, and a 1.25 WHIP is pretty damn solid as a 5th SP.
I agree that Redding is garbage.
Also I disagree with your assessment on Sandoval…I think he’ll be very solid this year.
Wellemeyer is nothing special. He was lucky last year and will be hard pressed to repeat that. His FIP was 4.51. He walks a bit too many and strikes out a bit too few. He’s eminently replaceable on most fantasy rosters and is just a little bit better than filler on a 20 team mixed. You dont base your roster around players like that is my point. A Wellemeyer or Redding could be easily replaced through the auction or draft. Their production could be nearly replaced with a little waiver wire luck.
Sandoval is nice if he’s your catcher and he produces. I dont think he’s going to produce that well, personally. He doesnt have the plate discipline to succeed at the MLB level and he is nowhere close to a plus fantasy option, even in a 20 team mixed. As a starting fantasy 1B he is not a good idea at all. Even if you are of the opinion Sandoval will be a good MLB player eventually, the chances of him being a plus fantasy producer from 1B next year are slim. There are many, many less risky/more productive guys who qualify at 1B.
I agree
on Redding, but Wellemeyer as of right now, deserves to be owned in ANY 20 team league out there. He’s solid enough, even if we see a decline in ERA to the low 4.00’s.
And yes, I certainly plan on overlooking the waiver wire for some additional help, but as of right now…no name sticks out.
But either way
If youre serious about competing this year you should trade the pic for instant help.
If youre not serious about competing you really should look to unload some of your older players (Thome, Lowe, ManRam).
Travis Snider may very well help you this year, but its sort of a half ass solution. If youre looking for help this year you can do better trading the pick. If help this year isnt the primary concern you probably should go someone like Alvarez IF you think he’s better than Snider(I dont think that’s a given). If you decide youre not in Go For It Now mode you really shouldnt let the ability to help you this year affect your decision… you have to just take the best player available.
Snider
Better AVG, better HR, maybe a loss in SB, but your MI should be able to compensate for that, especially if Snider is set to replace Thome or Ramirez.
I'd say the question of which will be better in ACTUALITY is a much more interesting one
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Alvarez
Normally I would go with Rasmus, as Snider’s K rate worries me quite a bit. But that being said, looking at your roster you do not need ANY help in the OF. Your OF is stacked… and the only way Rasmus/Snider plays in 2009 is if someone gets injured.
So all that being said, based on team needs I would go with Alvarez. He is likely to stick at 3B for a few years before sliding across the diamond, and 3B is a need area for your team, with DeRosa having more value at 2B than 3B, and Casilla not offering much other than SBs.
Alvarez is the direction I would take.
Rasmus
I see the Cards dealing Ankiel (FA after this year) at the deadline to a contender, so I think Rasmus will be up then if he doesn’t bomb in AAA.
I don't think either one of you understood my point
The guy has Holliday, Markakis and Manny in the OF, and Thome at DH. Do you really expect one of Snider/Rasmus to play over any of those guys??? Those are some extremely lofty expectations…..
Manny & Thome
Manny will most likely get a 2 year deal and play thru 2010 and then retire.
Thome’s contract is up after this year, and I’m not sure if he’ll retire then or not.
Is Alvarez’s upside THAT much greater than Snider/Rasmus? Both of the latter should be that much closer to their prime in 2011 when I’ll need one of them and I’m just not sure I want to gamble on a guy who hasn’t seen a single professional pitch yet.
Good point
Manny will likely play beyond 2 years, but Thome will likely retire. Then again, if he hits another 39 HRs he might play on a couple more 1 year deals.
To me, you can really, really use the help at 3B. I usually advocate best available player, but the difference between Rasmus/Snider/Alvarez is small enough that I go with the need position.
Just my 2 cents is all….
don't bother
drafting fantasy leagues based on where you think your positional gaps will be in 2 years. Unless trading is banned in the league or extremely sparse, It’s very easy to free up roster spots for the best player available.
Rasmus has been completely thrown in the garbage by many prospect rankers. He started off horribly – no question. But was mashing in June before he hurt his knee.
Alvarez
I don’t think his upside is that much better than Snider or Rasmus, but if he can give you corner OF stats at 3B, you are in good shape. Outfielders are a dime a dozen and you don’t have an immediate need. You can grab another young one later in the draft or next year. But the chance to grab an elite 3B when you obviously need one is too great to pass on.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
interesting
I mean yeah I’ve thought about Alvarez for sure, I just don’t know if I can pull the trigger on someone who hasn’t played a pro game yet over 2 guys in AAA/MLB who also have very high ceilings.
Ohhhh, look at the shiny new tow!!!!
I find it interesting that people are projecting Snider to have a better batting average given that he strikes out over 30% of his at bats. So that’s an interesting BABIP you’re expecting Snider to have.
While obviously Snider has way way more power than Rasmus since Snider had 23 homers and a .480 OPS as a 20 year old largely in AA) any power advantage he does have over Rasmus (hey, remember all those decades ago when Rasmus has 29 homers and a .550 OPS as a 20 year old in AA), will be more than made up for with the fact that Rasmus will likely have 20 more steals than Snider.
So basically, Rasmus will likely have a better average (since he’ll walk way more often and strike out way less) will have way more stolen bases, and likely around the same amount of homers.
Maybe it’s because Rasmus is so bad against lefties that he’ll just be a platoon player? Rasmus career vs. lefties – .275/.371/.455 for an .826 OPS. Snider career vs. lefties .289/.341/.488 for an .829 OPS.
How the hell is anyone answering Snider?
Rasmus
makes me nervous because of all the ?‘s. It sucks having the 3rd pick in this draft because the 2 “sure things” will be gone and I’ll be left with guys with ?‘s or guys who most likely won’t help me till late 2010 at the earliest (Heyward, Alvarez).
I’m not sure I like how the Cards have dealt with him over the past few years (LaRussa mainly), and that kind of freaks me out and could put a halt on his development to ultimately be a stud.
I’m a big Rasmus fan, love the power/speed/plate discipline combo, but Snider seems to be just a straight up masher to me who will go 35+ HR in his prime, although Colby could very well do the same.
I am with ya Galt
Snider’s K rate is extremely worrysome. Maybe he’ll cut down the Ks and turn out just fine… or maybe his BA will only be around .270 (still a very high BABIP assuming the K rate stays constant) instead of the .300 most are expecting.
Simple math here folks: Let’s assume Snider keeps the K rate at 30%. If his BABIP is .500, that puts him at a .350 Avg. Drop it to .400, and the Avg drops to .280. Still an extremely high BABIP (well above league average), but at least that is somewhat attainable. So the bottom line here is that I am not very bullish on Snider’s BA unless he really cuts down the K rate.
"Let's assume Snider keeps the K rate at 30%"
That’s the problem right there. Snider started the ’08 with a 33% K-rate at A+, LOWERED it to 27% at AA, then LOWERED it to 22.9% at AAA, then saw it bounce back up to 29% in the majors.
We just saw a kid improve his approach as he ran through nearly the entire minor leagues in one year. That’s the most important thing to keep in mind with Snider. There is a virtual nil chance that he stops improving his approach in the majors at 21.
I wouldn’t expect Snider to hit .300 in his first full season, but I wouldn’t rule it out either. Those who harp on his high K-rates need to keep in mind that he has been pushed at every stop, and succeeded as a hitter. Nobody really knows what will happen when Snider has time to adjust to the big leagues, but I’m pretty sure his skills aren’t suddenly going to stagnate; not when he’s adjusted so well at each level so far in his career.
Your math is also misleading...
because it assumes every ball Snider makes contact with will fall IN PLAY, and not on the other side of an outfield wall.
If Snider hits 15 HR in 500 AB next year with a 25% K rate, a .330 BABIP will give him a .268 batting average. I’d say that’s a pretty reasonable floor for a guy who’s a line drive machine.
Bump a few things up, say to 20 HR, 20% K rate, .340 BABIP, and you’ve got a .298 hitter. I wouldn’t plan on that by any means, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility.
Most likely it will take Snider a good couple of years before he becomes a ~.300 hitter with power. One thing I’ve learned though: don’t set limits on guys who can hit in the majors at 20.
-1
Why do people continue to act like 2008 wasnt an important data point for Rasmus?
You do bring up some good points about Snider, but I wish people would stop acting like 2008 didnt happen/doesnt matter for Ramus.
Not that it doesn't matter
but I definitely think the opposite is true – that some are over-emphasizing it, especially given what we know on how the Cards messed with his approach / he got back on track / got hurt. If he would have stayed healthy the entire year, we’d all be treating his year much as we are Moustakas’ season. People are much too focused on his April/May.
Go wtih Rasmus
Kid has more potential than Snider, and would be the second coming of Grady Sizemore.
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