Smoak or Alvarez
by JayWise on Jan 14, 2009 12:40 AM EST
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PrintI'm sure that this has popped up in some other fanpost. I'm in a keeper league right now, with 6 minor league (4 year contracts), and 5 major league contracts (3 2 year, 2 3 year). On the minor league side I have Evan Longoria at third (drafted two years ago), Jay Bruce, Cameron Maybin, Jason Heyward, and Mike Moustakas...no one under contract who plays first. The league has extra spots beyond the standard starting 8, including 2 for DH.
I have the first overall pick in the minor league draft this year, and based on who is already under contract I'd like to pick either Smoak or Alvarez. The factors that I'm looking at include speed of rise to the major league level (I'll likely peak next year), actual numbers, etc. The offensive categories include BA, OBP, R, RBI, HR, SB, and TB.
Any suggestions on who I should pick?
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Alvarez
Could stick at 3rd, making him more valuable, and has a slightly better bat. Smoak has Texas’ friendly ballpark working in his favor, but they also have no need to rush him with a present 3-man logjam of Davis, Ramirez, and Blalock at 1B/DH. Alvarez will be pushed aggressively and should respond well. I like Smoak, but go with the consensus best college hitter from that draft year.
there is no three person logjam
Davis is at first and that’s it. Max Ram is going to play in AAA and Blalock is gonna DH. It really isn’t that difficult. Smoak will be in Arlington by 2010 if that helps any.
The bloggerformelyknownasBigBaddBubbaJ
So it's not an issue
That the Pirates seem to screw up everything that they touch? Or that they might want to delay his debut to save money or stack their farm system some more? What about the fact that I currently have Longoria?
Alvarez is already on the 40 man roster
I think that they’ll move him to the majors as soon as he’s ready since he’s already got an MLB contract. Considering their other MiLB “impact” prospects are already at AA or higher right now, it wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense to keep him stashed in the minors for too long just to keep his service clock from running, as they’ve already got him in a favorable deal for the next 6 seasons (assuming they exercise the team options for the final 2 years).
They would be smart to take it slow and get the most hey can out of Alvarez which means 6 good to great seasons and a trade before he leaves. Ideally if he becomes what most think he can, the Pirates will be able to sign him long term by then but I doubt Boras lets that happen and his previous dispute with the contract negotiations after the draft sort of reinforce that. To get those 6 good to great seasons, I’d take the slow approach because Longoria/Braun types of breakouts don’t happen all to often.
Alvarez...
will be ready quicker and has more offensive upside. He will be up pretty quickly and will probably hit good from the start. Don’t worry about the Pirates screwing him up, because they have improved their minor league coaching by a lot and have a good major league htting coach too. Also, having Longoria and Alvarez is actually a good thing. You could put Alvarez at the CI position, or trade Longoria when Alvarez is ready and get something reall good in return because Alvarez and Longoria project almost the same offensively with Alvarez having a little more power and he will probably hit for a slightly higher average.
Smoak, just to try to talk both sides of the issue
Just becasue of Alvarez’s alarming K% in college and his broken Hamate bone and question about if he sticks at 3B. Follow that with a huge decline in his XBH% after he recovered from the injury and there are legit enough concerns to pick Smoak.
Either are great picks. If you expect Alvarez to bounce back from the wrist injury fully and do you not worry about his K% or that he may switch positions he is the better hitter of the 2.
Smoak because
You have Longoria. I do think Alvarez is the better prospect, but I think Smoak fits your team better. Sometimes it’s not always best to take the “best player available” – and I think this is one of those cases.
Disagree...
ALWAYS take the best player available! Never look at position…but in your case, Alverez was one of the best players and does play first…win/win. Besides, if he gets moved to third and you have 2 stud 3B’s…not a bad “problem” to have. Trade one to meet your positional needs.
"Yesterday Is History, Tomorrow Is A Mystery, Today Is A Gift...That's Why We Call It The Present." Master Oogway (Kung Foo Panda)
by Kenner's Corner on Jan 14, 2009 11:18 AM EST up reply actions
why don't you just ask your brother who he wants...
-or look at them as Tex vs Pitt and take the teammates, that way you never second guess yourself.
Alvarez is the bigger talent but playing for Texas is an equalizer; consider how many players benefited last year from playing in that lineup
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Smoak!
Alvarez may be the more talented of the two, however, with Texas’ home park being extremely hitter friendly AND the fact that the Rangers have a better supporting cast (lineup of Hamilton, Young, Davis, Cruz, Blalock etc) than the Pirates, Smoak IMO will put up better fantasy numbers than Alvarez. In the end, that’s what matters most, no?
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Not really
If you are going primarily on home park, what happens is Smoak is traded to a less hitter friendly stadium? I would always go with the better hitting talent and in this case it is Pedro.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Jan 14, 2009 11:56 PM EST up reply actions
Well
I think Texas has a better complimentary lineup as well. With Hamilton and Davis being lefties, there is a good possibility that Smoak (switch-hitter) will be sandwiched between the two. I am just speculating, but that’s a pretty good position to be in if it happens. Regardless, he will be in a run producing spot of the lineup (3-4-5). In contrast, Alvarez (damn good slugger) will be surrounded by Freddy Sanchez, Doumit, or the Laroche Bros. I do agree that Alvarez is a more talented hitter than Smoak, but not by that much in my opinion. Factor in the Texas lineup, and the positive effect of hitting in Texas (extreme hitters park – Coors of the AL) vs Pittsburgh (poor lineup, more pitchers park than hitters), it is not unreasonable to beleive that Smoak can produce better fantasy numbers than Alvarez.
Sure Smoak could be traded at anytime to a less appealing situation, but Alvarez could also fall down the stairs, break his collarbone or damage his shoulder. These are just ‘what ifs’ in my opinion. Good news is that both will probably move fast and we can enjoy watching them soon in the majors.
Bottom line, Alvarez is slightly more talented, Smoak is in a considerably better situation to produce.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
Line-up protection
is a myth. Good hitters hit, no matter where they are and who is around them and it’s basically been proven to death.
Again, it doesn't really matter
Look at some of the line-ups Bonds, Pujols and Miggy have been in. Berkman and Holliday perform in crap line-ups. Look at how well Manny did in the Dodgers line-up. The line-up has little effect on even those 2 cats – again, it’s been proven to be a negligible concept. Take the best talent available – Alvarez.
Fantasy wise
It might be more of a time frame issue.
Smoak is reportedly going to start the season in AA, so yo u are looking at early 2010 as a possible time line if everything goes right. Hosmer is going to A ball. When Smoak is graduating Hosmer if he follow the normal time line should be in High A or maybe AA.
Is it worth waiting the extra 1 1/2 to 2 years on Hosmer? It depends on the composition of your team and what your goals are. If 1B is a need you go with Smoak. If you are stacked and can wait the general consensus is to go with Hosmer and wait.
My personal belief though is to to take the more polished guy regardless and when he is ready trade him or the incumbent player. By trading the MLB ready or MLB proven guy you could just as easily get Hosmer and then some back. Add to it who knows if in 2 years time their is another elite 1B bat come through. They aer the most common of the power bat types becasue of the general athletic requirements.
This is...
good advice. There’s also value in the opportunity cost you get by not tying down a minor league roster spot.
KLaw take
Chet (LA): Pedro Alvarez or Justin Smoak?
SportsNation Keith Law: (1:52 PM ET ) Smoak. I’ve been saying that for a year and a half and I’m not reversing it until Alvarez demonstrates that I was wrong.
Klaw
doesn’t have a “scouting background” so he should be dismissed completely. At least that’s what I’ve been told.
"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan
by Dirk Diggler on Jan 16, 2009 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
Things we haven't mentioned yet
Alvarez is a Boras client
I’m not sure who typically does the recruiting but with clients like Teixeira and Weiters you might take that as a recommendation/testimonial?!?!??
(If you dislike Boras or think he’s losing his “touch” then your choice is easy)
Smoak is a switch hitter
I award bonus points for this ability so I get to mention Teixeira and Weiters again LOL.
If either Alvarez or Smoak had gone to Georgia Tech I would be yelling at you to take that one and complete the trifecta.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Opportunity
Alvarez has the obvious opportunity and looks certain to play a lot this year but with Bradley gone some DH time is sure to open up in Texas, regardless of the plan to have Blalock DH full time. With only Travis Metcalf at 3B you know the Rangers would love it if Blalock or Davis could shift back over there. Young has apparently relented and announced he will move to 3B (I wonder if Jeter was paying attention) but in any case, there’s a lot of questions about how the CI/DH sorts out. IMO Smoak is up by July.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
Adding fuel to the discussion
" Pedro Alvarez-3B- Pirates Jan. 17 – 9:28 am et
The Pittsburgh Post Gazette reports that the Pirates’ “management is dissatisfied with the conditioning of” first-round pick Pedro Alvarez.
Alvarez is expected to begin his pro career at high Single-A, but that may change if weight gain and knee soreness remain issues. The newspaper notes that the Pirates were told Alvarez was working out during their Scott Boras-fueled three-month contract negotiations, but “team officials confirmed this week that he has not been in peak shape since signing the contract.” In other words, so far at least he’s been an all-around headache for the Pirates.
Source: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
I have the first pick in my upcoming prospect draft….this has me pretty concerned. How does this color your opinion on the debate?
Pittsburgh and Boras
Poor Pittsburgh fans. It makes you admire guys like McLouth that rise to the top for them. When they can’t even attract a Baldelli to play for them, and all their other prospects are probably two years away, it looks more and more likely that that Alvarez doesn’t impact till 2011.
Enter Boras and it gets a whole lot more discouraging for Pedro – maybe he sulks and puts himself in bad shape – maybe management points to increasingly negative links to Boras. Either way, Boras will continue to be a significant factor where Alvarez is concerned; he’s in Steeler Country, where his contract means the bar is being set higher than for Wieters and Teixeira.
"I didn't really say everything I said."-Yogi ism
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