You Make the call, whos better longterm Julio Borbon vs Jacoby Ellsbury

by tulolince on Jan 13, 2009 1:21 AM EST Comment 24 comments

Now im sure when people read this theyll call me an idiot for comparing Ellsbury to a double A prospect . I will admit i am a Borbon fan and feel he has been slightly underrated , partly because getting lost in the shuffle due to the jacked system the Rangers have. I was looking for a comp to Borbon longterm, ive heard Johnny Damon before but obviously with his age now i was tryin to look for someone a little younger for the post. If you look at Ellsbury and Borbon at the age of 22 their stats are eerily similiar . Both started in High A and moved to Double A. Both hit over 300, Both hit 7 Hrs and both had 40 plus steals(Borbon 50 plus).

Ellsbury

22 yr between high A and double A

442 ab, .303/384 7 hr 51 rbis 64 runs 41 sb(17 cs) slg .425 ops .810 strikeouts 53

Borbon

22yr old between high A and double A

541 ab, .322/ 363 7 hr, 58 rbis, 86 runs, 53 sb(18 cs) slg 427 ops 790 strikeouts 62

I think you can see why i made the comparison , so the question is, in 5 yrs time who will be the better player Julio Bobon or Jacoby Ellsbury.

Close call to me but i go Borbon in the upset, what about you?

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Interesting comp, but the fact that Borbon was in the Cal/Tex league’s while Ellsbury was in the Car/Eastern league does make Jacoby’s numbers more impressive. That said, the numbers are definitely similar, and I could see Borbon being somewhat of an Ellsbury clone. Of course, there’s a lot of time left to tell on both these guys, really.

by jseiner on Jan 13, 2009 2:30 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

The big difference to me

is how BA dependent Borbon’s OBP is. Ellsbury hasn’t yet shown in the majors that he can sustain a high OBP, so it’s not a closed book, but at least in the minors, he could put up a good OBP without hitting .320 or .330. Borbon hasn’t shown that he can do that at any level. Maybe he’ll hit over .300 and put up a .350+ OBP, but I doubt it.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 13, 2009 8:52 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Signs of Improvement

He put up 400+ OBP in AFL and 422 in Dominican League… trend?

by BuckyB on Jan 13, 2009 10:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, not a trend

Did you read his comment? The point was his OBP is all high AVG component based – and thus fluky. The “sign of improvement” 400+ OBP was floating on an equally unsustainable .337 AVG.

Borbon is too close to a 4th OFer for my tastes. Though Id like to know whether we’re talking fantasy or real life. I can buy the argument in fantasy that theyre kind of close.

Every time an OFer with speed and without great power comes along now we have to hear him compared to Ellsbury. Ellsbury has some pretty rare skills that allow him to surpass the limitations of his skill set. Julio Borbon doesn’t walk as much as Ellsbury. Brett Gardner strikes out a ton more. Neither hits for extra bases like Ellsbury does, though, and that’s the major difference. Ellsbury has barely begun to tap that potential, too. This was always the difference, especially in scouting reports – scouts thought Ellsbury would be a late bloomer w/ regards to power – his swing generates lots of backspin (and consequently power). He just hasnt learned how to use it.

Compared to Ellsbury Borbon and Gardner are slap hitters. Ellsbury is also a more patient hitter. The difference between these guys isnt the Grand Canyon, but its there and its significant. I think Borbon can be a very useful player and Gardner is a nice fit as a 4th OFer, but Ellsbury is clearly a better prospect/player than those guys.

by alskor on Jan 13, 2009 12:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Extra base hits

at the same age Ellsbury had 32 xbh(8 triples) and Borbon had 41 xbh (2 triples) Ellsbury had only 17 doubles while Borbon had 32 , i think you can argue Borbon has the potential to hit for MORE extras base hits then Ellsbury and is just a flat out better with the bat, now if he can learn the strike zone better ………

by tulolince on Jan 13, 2009 3:45 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

No, you cant

Scouting reports are the difference. This is the same argument we heard last year about Gardner v Ellsbury. Numbers do not tell the whole story.

Also, Ellsbury took some big leaps forward in development after the point where Borbon was now. Could Borbon overcome the scouting reports and odds and also make those leaps? It is strictly possible, of course, but somewhat unlikely.

by alskor on Jan 13, 2009 3:52 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

what scouting reports

why mention gardner, he had 0 hr and 18 doubles in 420 at bats in double a , no pop whatsoever and a yr older then Borbon was .
As far as scouting reports i heard the same knock on Ellsbury until he had the big late season push 2 yrs ago, that he might not have enough pop to be a full time player.

by tulolince on Jan 13, 2009 4:01 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

why mention gardner, he had 0 hr and 18 doubles in 420 at bats in double a , no pop whatsoever and a yr older then Borbon was .

Exactly. Yet last year this time there were threads asking what the difference between Gardner and Ellsbury was. Suddenly every OF prospect with speed is the next Ellsbury, even if they are 50-75% of the hitter Ellsbury is.

As far as scouting reports i heard the same knock on Ellsbury until he had the big late season push 2 yrs ago, that he might not have enough pop to be a full time player.

Yes, the question marks were there, just like they STILL are with Borbon. Like I said, “Ellsbury took some big leaps forward in development after the point where Borbon was now.” Maybe Borbon makes those jumps, too, but my money is against it. He doesnt walk nearly as much as Ellsbury or profile as a guy who will hit for as much power as Ellsbury – and Ellsbury doesnt hit for all that much power to begin with… that’s why most people view Borbon, rightly in my opinion, as a marginal starter/4th OFer.

by alskor on Jan 13, 2009 4:16 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

ABs

Saying that Bourbon stole 50+ when Ellsbury “only” stole 40+ is looking at the numbers out of context. Ellsbury was in a tougher league, and he had 100 less ABs. He’s also taken a big step forward since AA, which Bourbon hasn’t (yet).

by rmarx01 on Jan 13, 2009 9:47 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not even close

Borbon MIGHT have a similar profile to Jacoby, but on every level he has not been the hitter Ellsbury was or became since then. His rate numbers look similar/better because he got more PAs last year in weaker leagues. Might they become similar type players? Maybe. But Borbon doesn’t come close to projecting better than Ellsbury long term, he would need to take a legitimate step forward next year to have even the same profile.

by jelder09 on Jan 13, 2009 9:55 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

Doesn't come close?

I agree that he’s behind Ellsbury at this point in time, but to say he’s not even close is not really giving Borbon his due. He certainly needs to improve, but I think that statement is a little too harsh.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jan 13, 2009 10:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

at least somewhat close

by BuckyB on Jan 13, 2009 10:30 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

not close

i agree that it’s not close. having the potential to be Ellsbury and being Ellsbury are 2 very different things. Bourbon’s upside is Ellsbury, meaning that he would need to reach his full potential to be Ellsbury. I’d rather have Ellsbury than a guy who could possibly be Ellsbury.

I’ll say it again – I agree that it’s not close.

by rmarx01 on Jan 13, 2009 12:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Well Ellsbury

Is older than Borbon — that’s basically the only reason Borbon is not Ellsbury right now. That would be the OP’s original point. At this point, their statistical profile is very similar and their ages were basically the same.

I’ll say it again — Borbon is probably not quite to Ellsbury’s level at current time – but it is close.

"He will not coddle them. Nolan Ryan doesn’t coddle." - Jeff Passan

by Dirk Diggler on Jan 13, 2009 2:59 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How can we know what Borbons Upside is

Hes played one full season in the minor leagues? Would you be shocked if he had a huge bump this year , refinig his game, better knowledge of the strike zone, learning how to drive the ball farther etc etc?

by tulolince on Jan 13, 2009 3:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

At every level?

This was Borbons first full yr in the minors

by tulolince on Jan 13, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I think to many people bought into the hype of Ellsbury's incredable

stretch when he was first called up. Last year as a full season he put up a .336 OBP in 554 ab’s.

I think Borbon is the better natural hitter of the but has never been forced to take a walk. Instead he could always pick a pitch to drive and get on base that way. The problem with that is walks are important at the MLB level the maintain the OBP. The good thing about that is though instead of a sub 300 average that Ellsbury will be he might be able to keep hi above .300.

If Borbon can keep his new walk rate he should have a ceiling higher than Ellsbury’s. Borbon has the better hit tool, if he gets acceptable plate discipline to go with it, he would surpass Ellsbury.

by laxtonto on Jan 13, 2009 12:42 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes and no

ellsbury got hurt last year and played through it because they had several key injuries and needed his defense out there so he sucked it up and took his rookie lumps, but he started off the year at an incredible pace before he was slowed due to the injuries, he’s not as good as that postseason, but he’s going to be a lot better than his full-season numbers would suggest

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 13, 2009 10:21 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

Ellsbury was off to an incredible start. His stats for the year should have ended up much better

On June 5th he hurt his wrist making a spectacular diving catch:

Jacoby Ellsbury left Thursday’s game in the fourth inning with a right hand injury sustained making a diving catch.

It looked like it could be a pretty serious injury, so a Coco Crisp suspension would come at an especially bad time. With Crisp having been tossed, the Red Sox put both Chris Carter and Kevin Youkilis into the outfield and moved J.D. Drew to center. If Ellsbury lands on the DL, Brandon Moss will likely be called up.

http://www.rotoworld.com/Content/playerpages/player_previousnews.aspx?sport=MLB&id=4207

Afterwards his swing wasnt the same. I wish I could show you video of this but it was quite obvious. Hopefully someone else who watches the Sox regularly can corroborate. Pitchers started busting him inside to test his wrist and he didnt really get his swing back until the stretch run. Following the wrist injury – and a hastened return due to Coco’s suspension (for fighting James Shields) he started to take slap style cuts at pitches, swung at the first pitch he saw a lot and his numbers took a downturn. I still dont know why they didnt give him a week off at some point to get healthy… but the Rays were always threatening to run away with the division and there was always an injury to Coco or Drew… or Manny decided he wasnt going to play. He didnt look like himself for a long time after the injury.

From beginning of the season to June 4th: .287/.383/.410
From June 5th to end of season: .278/.309/.385

June, 2008: .245/.265/.327
July 2008: .247/.277/.289

He also stopped stealing bases… the guy was clearly not healthy for a month and half-two months there. He was still playing great defense though, so they kept him out there with all the other injuries. He really looked different in a way you could see very easily and immediately. He started swinging at first pitch fastball inside – and guys kept busting him there because his wrist wasnt allowing him to turn on that kind of stuff. He looked like he wasnt using his hips… it almost looked like a Johnny Damon type swing – and although there games are similar you dont want anybody to swing like Damon… he’s a weirdo.

Even still, his season line of .280/.336/.394 isnt that bad for a gold glove caliber CF (+17.5 by UZR) in his rookie season. I dont understand why people seem down on his rookie season… he did damn fine. I dont know how many times I can say this, but not everybody is Evan Longoria. Not everybody comes out of the minors like a rocket/instant All Star. Between 07 and 08 Ellsbury actually looked pretty great for a rookie, all things considered.

by alskor on Jan 13, 2009 10:55 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

i didn’t know about the injury but there is a lot of truth to the last paragraph. not every good prospect is an instant all-star.

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 14, 2009 12:07 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Ellsbury...

in a year many considered a disappointment, Ellsbury was a +3.5 win player according to fangraphs (using weighted runs above average and UZR to come up with the best marginal win calculations currently available on the internet). That slots him as the 53rd most valuable position player in baseball last year. He’s a damn good player, and it’s tough to see Bourbon ever matching that output.

by slamcactus on Jan 14, 2009 3:28 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

I like Borbon, but....

He is not Ellsbury right now. He could be if he continues to improve, but he is not right now. I would rather take Player A that has already proven something in the bigs than Player B who looks a lot like Player A when Player A was Player B’s age but still has only progressed to AA. AA to the bigs is a pretty big jump folks.

by guru4u on Jan 13, 2009 4:19 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

yes

couldn’t have said it better myself (and apparently didn’t)

by rmarx01 on Jan 13, 2009 5:04 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

really?

you might be the only person on this site ever to say they would take someone who has done something over someone who could one day think about considering doing what he has done, you are crazy, projection is clearly more important than production

-sean, i hit a hr in the llws, burroughs-

by IHateMitchMustain on Jan 13, 2009 10:23 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs