Mat Gamel vs. Logan Morrison

by holybovine on Jan 12, 2009 6:20 PM EST Comment 26 comments

I know: They play different positions.

But let me ask you this: Positional concerns notwithstanding, which one do you think projects to be a better all-around hitter, and why?

I don't have any empirical data to back me up on this, but I think Gamel will be a more complete hitter, with good patience, high average, 25+ HRs, and tons of doubles. In other words, I buy the "poor man's Chase Utley" comparison.

On the other hand, I see Morrison being similar to Overbay, which is a step down from what I mentioned above.

What say you?

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Instead of making assumptions

I will look at it statistically. A good way to do this is compare both of their stints in the Florida State League.

Matt Gamel – 2007 FSL (A+) – Age 22
466 AB, 10.9 BB, 18.4 K, .357 wOBA, .172 isoP, .365 BABIP, 16 LD%, .848 OPS

Logan Morrison – 2008 FSL (A+) – Age 21
486 AB, 10.3 BB, 14.5 K, .383 wOBA, .163 isoP, .377 BABIP, 21 LD%, .895 OPS

Based on this, it appears they both have similar plate discipline, while Morrison has much better contact skills. They both also have similar power, although Morrison has a better line-drive stroke. Based on these statistics, Morrison had the much more productive season.

Also, Morrison was one year younger at the time they were in the FSL. He is also 2-inches taller has a more projectable frame.

Based on all of this, I’d consider Morrison the better bet going forward.

ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com

by sully10x on Jan 12, 2009 6:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

based purely on hitting

easily morrison. morrison looks to hit for better avg, better discipline and even if he doesnt develop the power to hit 30+ hrs, i think he’s a good bet to at least hit 20, which is about what i give gamel.
besides if you look at the stats breakdown provided by sully above, you can see that they both had redicululously high babip, however morrison’s had a lot higher rate of line drives, so his stats less yr was a lot less inflated than gamel’s.

by bk11 on Jan 12, 2009 7:06 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Walks

Uh, according to your own stats Gamel drew more walks Buddy :-) So even if you think Morrison is going to tons better than Gamel he doesn’t have better plate discipline.

Also, I watched Gamel play for a week straight last season and he appears tohave real good pitch recognition skills as well.

No knock on Morrison though, he looks like a hell of a hitter. I like both frankly, especially if gamel becomes a decent 3b which Im in the minority in thinking he WILL

by casejud on Jan 12, 2009 10:14 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Uh

There are two parts to plate discipline and Morrison’s much better K rate more than offsets the slight advantage of Gamel’s walks. Taking both into consideration, Logan had the better plate discipline.

I reject your reality and substitute my own.

by WayneCampbell08 on Jan 13, 2009 12:41 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

disagree

I dont think striking out has anything to do with plate discipline. You are talking hand-eye coordination and the type of swing a person has there. Whatever, its a nothing argument anyways. To just oveerlokk the guy who moved on to AA and GOT BETTER – much better is absurd. I dont care about either of these guys plate disciple. i care that they can HIT. Thats the rare part about both these guys.

by casejud on Jan 13, 2009 1:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

-1

I dont think striking out has anything to do with plate discipline. You are talking hand-eye coordination and the type of swing a person has there

K rate is a very good measure of a player’s ability to judge the strike zone and has strong predictive value of their future plate discipline.

I dont care about either of these guys plate disciple. i care that they can HIT. Thats the rare part about both these guys.

Plate discipline has strong predictive value of a guy’s ability to hit at higher levels.

by alskor on Jan 13, 2009 12:28 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

To a degree

What I mean is that what you are saying is true, but only if the strikouts are EXCESIVE. Otherwise, striking out is an indicator of POWER, thats why so many good hitters strike out a lot.

In this instance I fail to see how Morrison has a better batting eye or pitch recognition skills than Gamel’s

by casejud on Jan 17, 2009 3:23 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gamel's improvement

I think simply comparing their stats in A+ ignores the improvements Gamel has made. His numbers were up almost across the board despite jumping to AA, which should count for something. I’m not saying it definitely makes him a better prospect than Morrison, just that it makes the A+ numbers a little less important.

by EinNH on Jan 12, 2009 10:38 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Morrison

Much higher upside, better age relative to performance, the athleticism to maybe play outfield, while I see Gamel as a lackluster defensive first baseman and don’t like his power potential.

by aap212 on Jan 12, 2009 10:45 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

bizarre

…considering Gamel is playing 3b in AA and Morrison is playing 1b in A+.

by casejud on Jan 13, 2009 1:19 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

For now...

Gamel will not be a 3B in the majors, not for any extended period of time. If I remember correctly, in 2007 Ryan Braun had the worst season ever for a 3B when it came to fielding (I seem to remember reading that somewhere). And secondhand reports have Gamel as an even worse 3B defensively.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Jan 13, 2009 1:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Braun

was “worst” if you go by errors. Most were when he had time and airmailed the throw. I think most people have heard a couple of one line dismissals of Gamel’s defense by Sickels’ counterparts. Are those the secondhand reports you’re talking about?

by Lovejoy on Jan 13, 2009 7:59 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He is terrible defensively.....

Here are the numbers at 3B:

360 games
123 errors
.878 fielding percentage

I know that fielding percentage is not the best way to judge defense, but an .878 FP after 360 games is truly horrendous.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Jan 13, 2009 2:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Gamel

How quickly the rats desert the ship. He has a down second half and now he will never be more than a third teer player. Fantastic

by CoolCat23 on Jan 12, 2009 11:30 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

+1

I think a lot of the down 2nd half had to do with the elbow injury too. The only way he would get a call-up was to play through the injury and hide it from the Brewers. I’d like to see what Gamel would do fully healthy at AAA. I’m guessing he would continue his rapid improvement a la 1st half 2008.

by Chalupa Cabrera on Jan 13, 2009 12:48 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Nah

Id like to see what Gamel could do in the big leagues. He’s the Brewers best 3b they’ve got. I think he’ll tear up Nashville for maybe a month and a half and we’ll see him in the show.

by casejud on Jan 13, 2009 1:31 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

+1

agreed. It was also mentioned that his elbow was affecting his throws from 3B, but I’m not so sure he was a slick fielder/thrower before the injury. Anyways, he would be put in a pretty good offense too if Weeks and Hart can be more effective than they were in 08.

by Chalupa Cabrera on Jan 13, 2009 2:35 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Their pitching staff would revolt.

What the Brewers SHOULD do is trade one of their corner OF/1B for a guy who can actually play 3B and let Gamel try LF or 1B. Because I have yet to read any scouting report that implies he can stick at 3B. His defense at the hot corner has been pretty universally panned, and I don’t see the Brewers repeating their mistake with Braun.

What they really need is to be in the AL. :-/

by mraver on Jan 13, 2009 7:57 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

How big is your universe?

Is it Goldstein and Neyer (who aren’t scouts)?

by Lovejoy on Jan 13, 2009 8:02 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

scouts

we are all scouts. some good. some bad. some with more access. some even get paid. although pro scouts are the cream of the crop of that profession. they are not the only people on the planet capable of evaluating prospects. nor may they always be the best.

by svigen on Jan 13, 2009 8:55 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

sweet stuff

You’ll get creamed on here for saying this but, you’re right :-)

by casejud on Jan 13, 2009 9:26 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

okay

How recently have you seen Gamel?

by Lovejoy on Jan 13, 2009 11:27 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Serious overreaction

Saying that I like Morrison better than Gamel doesn’t mean I think Gamel can’t or won’t be a good major leaguer, and saying I don’t think Gamel will ever be a good defensive player at any position doesn’t mean I think he can’t or won’t be a good major leaguer. But I see more red flags and less upside with Gamel than I do with Morrison. That’s all.

by aap212 on Jan 13, 2009 4:42 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs