2009 top 5 hitting prospects by age (17-22)

by ProspectTube.com on Jan 12, 2009 10:35 AM EST Comment 49 comments

Since we're in the pre-2009 rankings season, I thought I'd take a different approach and rank my top five minor league hitters by age, from 17-22, excluding any current US high school players (my 08 list is on this site somewhere too for comparison's sake). I used the ages listed at www.baseballcube.com, and yes, my list is weighted heavily towards potential fantasy/roto impact, so defensive wizards need not apply. Thoughts?

(Last level played in 2008 in parenthesis)

Born in 1991

1. Wilmer Flores (A) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/wilmer-flores

2. Eduardo Sosa (Rk)

3. Jefry Marte (Rk) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/jefry-marte

4. Eduardo Soto (Rk)

5. Juan Duran (Rk) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/juan-duran

Flores is the only player in this group that played above rookie ball, and based on scouting reports, sounds like the real deal. Sosa, Marte, and Soto all had impressive DSL showings, combined with solid reports from scouts. Duran is the big bonus baby, but struggled in his professional debut. A lot can happen (or not happen) with 17-year-olds, so this list could make me look like a genius or a fool in 12 months.

Born in 1990

1. Carlos Triunfel (A+) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/carlos-triunfel-mariners

2. Tim Beckham (A) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:1003

3. Angel Villalona (A) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:274

4. Kyle Skipworth (Rk) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/kyle-skipworth

5. Brett Lawrie (NA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/brett-lawrie

For those that want to question Triunfel’s production to date, it’s important to remember that he would’ve been a high school senior last year, and competing against 15-18-year-olds and not 20-23-year-olds. Also, with potential fantasy impact in mind, if he can stick in the middle infield, the bat should be above average. Villalona’s the only other guy in this group with a professional resume, and it’s impressive to say the least. Beckham at SS, Skipworth at C, and Lawrie at C (assuming that’s what the Brewers do), all have the potential be plus hitters at premium fantasy positions.

Born in 1989

1. Jason Heyward (A) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:276

2. Jesus Montero (A) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/jesus-montero-yankees

3. Josh Vitters (A)

4. Eric Hosmer (A) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:58

5. Mike Stanton (A) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/mike-stanton

Lots of power in this group, but tough to overlook the tools and production of Heyward, who could be the #1 prospect in baseball going into the 2010 season. Montero, Vitters and Stanton all had impressive years in 09, while the scouting reports on Hosmer’s bat are solid across the board. I’m more than comfortable with the talent level in this five-some, and each could turn into middle of the lineup offenses forces.

Born in 1988

1. Travis Snider (MLB) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:52

2. Fernando Martinez (AA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:603

3. Mike Moustakas (A) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:544

4. Jose Tabata (AA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:682

5. Elvis Andrus (AA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:726

In my mind, this was the easiest age group to find the #1 guy. Snider has what everyone is looking for in a potential fantasy superstar, tools and the production, and when you add in the age vs. league factor, you can see why it didn’t take much effort from me to write his name in the #1 slot. While FMart hasn’t matched Snider’s production yet, it’s tough to find much fault in his 08 season, especially when you consider his age vs. competition. I think 09 is FMart’s year to put it all together. As for the rest of the group, Mous and Tabata really turned it on during the 2nd half of the year (still amazed that Tabata is in this age group), while Andrus held his own in AA and should at least be a good source of stolen bases out of the SS position.

Born 1987

1. Lars Anderson (AA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:492

2. Pedro Alvarez (NA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:48

3. Logan Morrison (A+)

4. Cameron Maybin (MLB) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/cameron-maybin

5. Greg Halman (AA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/greg-halman

I imagine this group will elicit the most feedback. You have a guy with no professional experience (Alvarez), a guy with major league service time (Maybin), and a guy rising quicker than a Lindsey Lohan bar tab (Halman). Lars is a middle of the order 300/400/500 guy during his peak years, and Morrison could be the same. Alvarez is mostly projection right now but scouts love the tools. Halman is the Dutch version of Maybin, both possess the speed and power that fantasy owners dream of, yet both have potential bust written all over them.

Born 1986

1. Matt Wieters (AA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/matt-wieters-orioles

2. Colby Rasmus (AAA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/colby-rasmus

3. Dexter Fowler (MLB) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/dexter-fowler

4. Carlos Santana (AA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/carlos-santana

5. Gordon Beckham (AA) - http://www.prospecttube.com/video/2136949:Video:867

All five of these guys could see major league playing time at some point in 2009, and while there wasn’t a shortage of talent born in 1986, I went with two guys who may be somewhat controversial in Santana and Beckham based on the lack of talent at their respective positions (C and SS/2B). Wieters enters the Hall of Fame in 2034. Rasmus forgets 2008 ever happened. Fowler loves the Colorado air. Santana and Beckham prove that their 08 statistics shouldn’t be overlooked.

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Comments

born in 91

i have to imagine you just forgot about inoa – i think a lot of people still think of him as 16, even though he’s 17 and a quarter already

Marte played in the NYP last year (not the DSL) and put up a real strong line…..i think he’d be getting a lot more hype if flores wasn’t in his organization

my top 5 would be:

1) Michael Inoa
2) Wilmer Flores
3) Jefry Marte
4) Julio Teheran
5) Jonathan Galvez

by Wheelhouse on Jan 12, 2009 10:54 AM EST reply actions 0 recs

wow, i'm an idiot

just read the title now – and didn’t even look at the other age groups before posting

i’d still rank marte and galvez over soto and sosa, who i honestly don’t know much about

by Wheelhouse on Jan 12, 2009 10:56 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hitters list, not pitchers, but yes...

I love what Marte did last year (thought it was DSL). Inoa would certainly be at or near the top of the 91 group, along with Martin Perez if I did a pitchers list.

Sosa is the Yankees prospect and Sota is the Angels prospect, both with fantastic DSL numbers and strong scouting reports. Sota is an under the radar type but could be a huge breakout guy as an 18 year old next year.

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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 12, 2009 1:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually it

was GCL wasn’t it? Not NYP or DSL lol.

by Meddler on Jan 12, 2009 10:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Justin Smoak?

Born in December 1986….I think as a pure hitting prospect he is better than Beckham, Fowler, and Rasmus….solely based on hitting. My opinion of course.

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by goose102977 on Jan 12, 2009 12:05 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Smoak was #6 on my list...

Huge fan. But using roto/fantasy as a factor, I put Beckham over him because of his future position (SS/2B). I love me some Smoak though.

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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 12, 2009 1:43 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

1991

What can you tell me about los dos Eduardos?

The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.

by mckeeno on Jan 12, 2009 2:03 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Dos Eduardos...

E Sosa, Yankees, OF, 5’11 155 lbs, signed for 525k

315/405/472
4 HR
34 BB
54 K
30 SB

E Sota, Angels, 2B, 6’0 165 lbs

323/394/472
4 HR
24 BB
51 K
19 SB

As for scouting reports, both are glowing, which is what you’d expect from 17 year olds with limited pro experience. Sosa’s more of a speed guy, with a decent K:BB rate for such a young player.

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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 12, 2009 4:08 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

What reports are you referring to

on Sota? I haven’t found anything substantive on him.

by Brett Perryman on Jan 12, 2009 11:34 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Beltre

Usually these are done in seasonal age in which Engel Beltre would be in with the ‘90s and I would argue he belongs in the top 5 of that group . Given that he is actually born in ’very late 89 he probably doesn’t quite rank with the generally more polished hitters on that list.

by Dalman on Jan 12, 2009 2:09 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

There's no difference

Every player on that particular list played last season as an 18 year old, just like Beltre. Montero and Stanton are both actually younger than Beltre, Hosmer is a week older, while both Heyward and Vitters are between 2-3 months older.

by nixa37 on Jan 12, 2009 3:39 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Unique

and interesting. A lot of confidence in F-Mart, yet not much in Maybin….

by METSMETSMETS on Jan 12, 2009 3:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I do...

Still really like Fmart, and can’t believe how many people jumped off his ship already. He most likely would’ve just finished his freshman year of college instead of playing AA in a pitchers league. His ISOP improved from .106 to .145 while both his K and BB rate remained stable at 7% and 19% (a slight improvement from 07). He also decreased his GB% from 07 to 08, and hopefully that lends itself to even more pop in 09.

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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 12, 2009 4:18 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

With your rankings aimed towards roto

What categories will Martinez really stand out in?

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by sully10x on Jan 12, 2009 5:29 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Middle of the order producer

While his power hasn’t shown up in the stat line yet, I think he’s a future middle of the order bat. Lots of projection, but the 287/340/432 line as a 19-year-old really impressed me. Obviously it’s tough to project out specific categories without knowing what the surrounding lineup looks like, but with the Mets financial resources, I’m guessing he’ll be in the middle of a strong lineup.

Anyone know how their new park is supposed to play?

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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 12, 2009 8:18 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Extreme pitchers

http://www.amazinavenue.com/2009/1/7/711009/citi-field-where-homeruns

by demondeaconsbaseball on Jan 12, 2009 8:41 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

F Mart

If he could actually stay healthy for a full season, I would believe in him too. But right now, he looks like the hitter version of Rich Harden.

by guru4u on Jan 13, 2009 4:36 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Okay

Yes, F-Mart has been injury prone, but that’s taking it a bit far. The kid has only been in professional baseball for three years, and really hasn’t had any business in full season leagues yet by ARL (there’s a reason younger players have their PT limited) . He had one major injury (hamate bone) which doesn’t seem to be an issue anymore, and one fairly typical leg injury (hamstring). If it continues on the same pattern for the next 5 years, fine, he’s injury prone, but sample size caveats apply to injury histories too, especially for players in leagues way about their heads. When you struggle you press, when you press you do things your body isn’t used to, and when you do things your body isn’t used to the risk of injury increases. Its way too early to call him the pitching version of Rich Harden though.

by Meddler on Jan 13, 2009 4:46 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

*hitting version of Rich Harden

by Meddler on Jan 13, 2009 4:47 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

He hasnt performed well enough for that comp

Rich Harden dominates when he’s healthy. FMart has 22 career HRs…

by alskor on Jan 13, 2009 11:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Jay Bruce? 1987?

Yadi is my hero

by Big Phil on Jan 12, 2009 5:46 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Read the title

Founder of the Johnny Giavotella fan club.

by doublestix on Jan 12, 2009 6:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

love this article

This was a great article i loved reading it. I cant believe there hasnt been more discussion!

by mark kl on Jan 12, 2009 6:27 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Fowler

Reading a lot of great things about Fowler (e.g. from John),,, but isn’t he blocked by Carlos Gonzalez now? CG being an even bigger, more advanced prospect.

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Jan 12, 2009 6:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Not really

I think, in the end, Gonzalez profiles as more of a LF, while Fowler is a true, 5-tool, pure CF.

by RedSoxFaithful on Jan 12, 2009 10:07 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmm... on Carlos Gonzalez

Thanks for the insight.

Gonzalez was the centerpiece of that trade last season so I assumed he would be the guy.

Well hopefully they both get some playing time in the spring/early summer

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Jan 13, 2009 12:57 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

re: gonzalez

Pretty sure he profiles as a RF. My understanding was he has quite the strong arm and a potential corner OF bat.

by joltinjoe on Jan 13, 2009 4:05 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Having gotten a chance

to watch Gonzalez play quite a bit last season while he was in Oakland I was pretty impressed with his CF play. It was said coming into the season that he may not cut it in CF, and would more likely become a RF’r but he looked damn good in CF. He’s got speed, got good reads on balls and has a cannon for an arm. Will he maintain that level of play?? We will see, but don’t be suprised if Gonzalez ends up finding a home in CF.

On the offensive side the ball jumps off of his bat and although it didn’t produce many homeruns last season, he started off his major league career with a nice streak of hard hit doubles. The thing that might hold him back from being a “star” is his lack of plate discipline. He doesn’t walk much and can be a bit of a free swinger, but that may be something that he improves with time. I’m no scout by any means, but if I had to bet after seeing him play both in Sacramento and in Oakland i’d say he ends up a .285/.335/.460 type player. If he sticks in CF that’s a pretty solid player. Either way Colorado fans should be excited about having him in the organization at this point. Getting Holliday was nice, but it hurt to lose a guy like Gonzalez. He’s got tons of potential.

by JPShark on Jan 14, 2009 11:43 AM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Right

Gonzalez can play. So can Fowler from what i am reading.

So unless Spilborghs gets hooked from his job in LF, Hawpe is not going anywhere, which means Gonzalez and Fowler will be battling from that CF job.

It would be a bummer to see one of these player’s growth stunted by lack of PT

by DodgersBacktoBrooklyn2011 on Jan 14, 2009 2:03 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeicok Calderon born in late late 91

Could be a potential 40 HR hitter.

by Bravesin07 on Jan 12, 2009 7:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

hello

Who is this Calderon guy? Position, team and scouting report?

by mark kl on Jan 12, 2009 8:00 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Yankee signee

Thanks Braves, wasn’t too familiar with him.

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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 12, 2009 8:07 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I'd rank Rashun Dixon at least 4th on the 17-year-olds list

Incredibly raw, but he looks like he has the upside of a 30 HR/30 steal guy, and he produced at a higher level than the Dominicans. Rated the best athlete in the A’s system (as a 17-year-old!) by BA.

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by PaulThomas on Jan 12, 2009 10:53 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

by ProspectTube.com on Jan 13, 2009 4:31 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Best hitters vs. best position players

I din’t intend to comment on Conger as a prospect, only on his hitting skills.

However, it is way too early to write Conger off as a catcher. Yes, he had a torn labrum last year and (as a rsult) was largely limited to DH. Mike Napoli had the same injury in 2003 (and likely more severe, since his required surgical repair) and he seems to be doing ok.

by oater on Jan 13, 2009 8:37 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Rashun Dixon? 1990

He had 18 combined triple and homers in just 45 games in just his first professional season in rookie ball. Has a very impressive power/speed combo, he just needs to work on plate discipline a bit, which is normal for a 18 year old who only recently started focusing primarily on baseball

"I think people in this state like BOTH teams," proclaims Nick Aliotti, the Ducks' defensive coordinator. "Except for our hard-core fans, I don't think most Duck fans would have been terribly upset to see Oregon State going to the Rose Bowl."

Another reason he needs to go.

by diehardoaklandfan22 on Jan 13, 2009 4:50 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

I was hoping that

Angel Morales would crack the list at 1989 (19 years old)

but he didn’t, probably didn’t come close.

shoot

by SteveHoffmanSlowey on Jan 13, 2009 5:17 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Morales: could be a huge sleeper in 09

One of the more impressive showings for an 18-year-old last year, but that 1989 group is a tough one to crack. I’d like to see what he does in Beloit this year, which probably sounds hypocritical since Hosmer’s only played three games in professional baseball and I had no problem ranking him 4th. Oh well :)

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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 13, 2009 5:50 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs

Brett Wallace - 1986

I’d put him at #3. His bat will be special. Defense at a corner slot should be adequate.

Fowler is still somewhat “projection-based” in terms of power.

I never rate (except Weiters) Catchers that high as they have a higher % flame out risk

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by Wilbur Wood on Jan 13, 2009 6:39 PM EST reply actions 0 recs

Good choice for a replacement

Although I think Santana has a chance to be a special bat at the C position, and his defense is good enough to stick (and permanently move Vmart). Wallace should be a middle of the order bat, although reports on his defense (and stomach) are all over the place, from adequate to get the 1st base mitt ready. I haven’t seen him personally, so I can’t add much other than what I’ve read.

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by ProspectTube.com on Jan 13, 2009 8:15 PM EST up reply actions 0 recs