Prospect Retro: Kevin Kouzmanoff

by John Sickels on Sep 5, 2008 12:00 PM EDT

The Indians drafted Kevin Kouzmanoff in the sixth round in 2003, from the University of Nevada. His pro debut was decent: .272/.342/.437 for Mahoning Valley in the New York-Penn League. His reputation was as a player with a solid bat, but questions about where he fit defensively. I didn't put him in the 2004 book, but would rate a similar player as a Grade C or maybe C+ prospect nowadays.

Kouzmanoff's 2004 full-season debut was excellent: .330/.394/.526 with 16 homers, 44 walks, and 75 strikeouts in 473 at-bats for Lake County in the Sally League. HIs defense was rated as adequate by scouts, and the offensive production was solid, with a +24 percent OPS. I gave him a Grade B- in the '05 book, and rated him as a sleeper prospect who should be watched closely.

Kouzmanoff got off to a great start in 2005, hitting a robust .339/.401/.591 for Kinston in the Carolina League, +33 percent OPS. However, he hurt his back in June and missed the second half of the season. Again, his defense was rated as "OK" by scouts, but good enough if he continued to hit. I wrote that he'd hit .280+ with some power at higher levels, and gave him another Grade B-.

Injuries were another problem for Kouzmanoff in 2006, as he was limited to 110 games. He was unstoppable when healthy however, hitting .389/449/660 for Double-A Akron and .353/.409/.647 for Triple-A Buffalo. He hit just .214/.279/.411 in 16 games for the Indians, but his minor league numbers were superb. The Indians didn't have room for him and sent him to San Diego for Josh Barfield. I gave him a Grade B due to his age and injury problems in the 2007 book, but said it was a "special" Grade B. I gave him the coveted Josh Willingham Award, annually awarded to the minor league player whose bat I am most comfortable swearing about. He can f**king hit.

Kouzmanoff has been solid though not spectacular the last two seasons for the Padres, hitting .275/.329/.457 in 2007 and .274/.311/.448 so far in 2008. HIs plate discipline has taken a huge step backward this year: just 19 walks against 114 strikeouts in 533 at-bats, compared to 32 walks and 94 strikeouts in 484 at-bats last year. The increased aggressiveness has not helped him, as his power production has remained nearly the same, a slight reduction actually.

For the future, Kouzmanoff is now 27 and it wouldn't surprise me to see him have a career year in 2009, especially if he can get some of that discipline back.

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KOUZ!!!!!!

I have to admit that I like Kouz. He is a good hitter who has the potential to do certain things very well. I expect he will have a career similar to Tim Wallach. He will tease you with his talent but never quite take his game to the next level. Kouz will hit for decent power, average, in spite of his possessing the plate discipline of a fat kid at a pie eatting contest. However, he will still remain a very valuable player who can be a supporting piece on a playoff calibre team.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 5, 2008 12:19 PM EDT 0 recs

The Petco Factor

I’d feel so much better about him if he was anywhere except San Diego. That place really messes with hitters.

by mookstra2 on Sep 5, 2008 2:41 PM EDT 0 recs

To me

He’s always reminded me of Casey Blake – a totally unspectacular player, but one you can build upon as a complimentary piece to a contending team or possibly a starter on a second division team.

by BBFan1 on Sep 5, 2008 4:48 PM EDT 0 recs

John, I would really like to agree with you on KK.

I have watched him too much with Cleveland and San Diego to think an 800+ ops is in his future. He is a very hard worker but he has some holes and it is incredibly charitable to call his defense OK or adequate. His work ethic is terrific and I would love to see a higher ceiling but i think his has been reached.

by sdtribefan on Sep 5, 2008 8:26 PM EDT 0 recs

Charitable to be OK?

5th in fielding percentage among MLB 3B (21 players in list)
13th in Range Factor
14th in Zone Rating

I don’t think anyone would describe him as above-average, but to suggest he isn’t even adequate is beyond critical…

by pffriberg on Sep 5, 2008 11:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Really?

He put an OPS of .824 last year on the road, and this year it’s at .809. His H/R splits are more pronounced this year, but I really do think that it’s very possible if he was traded elsewhere he’d be an .800 OPS guy without too much trouble. Petco really brings his numbers down.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Sep 6, 2008 6:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

I love it how everybody can find a number

to justify the sun rising in the west or that a player who has little range, bad hands and doesn’t throw well is really a good fielder. And if he played somewhere else, the statistics show he would be a great hitter. Do you ever just watch them play and perform your own analysis? It’s not that difficult.

by sdtribefan on Sep 6, 2008 11:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Seriously?

You’re argument is that Kouzmanoff isn’t an 800+ OPS hitter. The numbers show he is everywhere but in Petco, a park which is extremely hard on hitters. Adrian Gonzalez posts an OPS 175 points lower at home this year than on the road, 168 points lower last year. This is the exact opposite of the Coors effect, these guys have numbers suppressed by their home park. I don’t understand how you can try and play this off as anything other than the facts. No one is saying he’s a great hitter, but he’s proven outside of his home park that he can best the threshold you say he can’t pass.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Sep 6, 2008 11:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

Yowch

Nobody else said he was a good fielder. The argument is whether or not he’s passable, and frankly while there isn’t a single defensive metric that I like, the fact that he’s managed to play 2 full seasons there without the team feeling the need to make a move, especially with the presence of younger-and-virtually-equal-at-present-offensively Chase Headley, counts for something in my mind. As far as the bat goes, the numbers DO say that Kevin Kouzmanoff plays in other places, lots of them in fact. And in most of those places, he’s a pretty good hitter, although not the “great” hitter you seem to think that everybody else believes him to be.

Injecting hyperbole into the words of others isn’t really making for a fruitful discussion. It’s almost as if you had something against Kevin Kouzmanoff . . .but then again, I don’t think you’ll find too many people who can fault you there.

by mrkupe on Sep 7, 2008 1:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well said

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 7, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

Hey kupe, the original post described him as OK.

Unless you are parsing words, I am not sure I understand this particular delineation. Miguel Cabrera played 2 full seasons at 3B and could not field a lick. The Headley issue has more to do with what Headley can do and Kouz cannot.

BTW, I really like and admire Kouz. He is a real grinder and will not let anything get by him for lack of effort. But the reality is that he left a lot of his range, which was not that great in the first place, in a terrible fall in the AFL six years ago. He was playing typical Kouz baseball and giving it all he had in a meaningless game.

AS for his hitting, he strikes out about 10 times for every walk whereever he plays. He has major problems with low breaking balls and high heat. Changeups are kind of a mystery to him because of his long swing. But he hits mistakes.

If you ever needed to know how lame your position is, just look that King Billy agreed with you. And quit trying to use words like hyperbole when you do not understand their meaning. Nothing is worse than some poor guy trying to impress people with his vocabulary when he cannot use the word correctly.

by sdtribefan on Sep 8, 2008 7:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

Ummmm

What did I do to offend you? Please keep the insults to yourself and treat community members with respect. It isn’t my fault that you can not understand the concept of the Petco factor.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 8, 2008 11:18 AM EDT up 0 recs

What did you do to offend me?

Your ill-mannered adolescent comments would be a start. There was no insult in my paragraph. Only a factual observation which you took as an insult because I disagreed with kupe’s position. Hey self-proclaimed King, I live here and know Petco far better than you ever will. Petco does not effect walks and strikeouts to any discernable degree. Your attempt to imply otherwise must be one of those insults you accuse me of making. In summary, oh self-righteous King, birds in glass houses………

by sdtribefan on Sep 8, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

LOL

I don’t need to live in San Diego to understand the home/road splits of your players. Go look at Kouz’s road numbers and you will see that Kouz can in fact have a .800 OPS.

Home Numbers
.242 AVG, .414 SLG, .696 OPS

Road Numbers
.281 AVG, .475 SLG, .806 OPS

The numbers show that Kouz’s numbers take a huge hit from playing in a pitcher’s paradise. Also, as Gatling explained when it comes to his K/BB ratio you are just making up numbers. You may think you ‘know Petco’ because you live in San Diego but you are obviously biased towards Kouz (cough……..Barfield sucks…..cough) or you are refusing to look at the evidence of the numbers.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 8, 2008 7:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

LOL!!!!!!

yeah, and if they eliminated LH pitching and played all games during the day, then Kouz could have an 800 OPS as well. Then again, if pigs had wings they could fly. and if you could really understand numbers, ………………..

by sdtribefan on Sep 8, 2008 10:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ummmm

Does he not face LH pitchers on the road? Does he not play day games during the road? Looking at a hitter’s road numbers when he plays in an EXTREME pitcher’s park is a very logical way to predict how he would do in a neutral stadium.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 8, 2008 11:07 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not in the least persuasive!

Can you prove any of your suppositions? Does he face more LHers at home than on the road and play a greater percentage of his games at night? Look it up!! Quit trying to manipulate the facts to suit your arguement. Kouz’s OPS are far more effected by the other two factors than the Petco factor and are more relevant to his actual hitting. The primary difference at Petco are 2B vs. HR for the hitters who have good but not great power. The biggest difference is Padre pitching. Petco has less pitcher benefit than Comerica. Detroit pitching is lame so you don’t read about the Comerica factor. Padre hitting is lame so you have the Petco factor. Can’t believe I am trying to talk logic to an adolescent!!!!

by sdtribefan on Sep 9, 2008 3:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

Exaggeration

“AS for his hitting, he strikes out about 10 times for every walk whereever he plays.”

So if this isn’t an example of hyperbole, that means you literally think Kouz K’s 10 times for every walk? Or you think that Kupe thought you seriously meant it, when you were obviously exaggeration the K/BB rate Kouz has? Hard to say either way I guess, but the facts he doesn’t come close to K’ing 10 times for every walk. On the road, his K/BB rate the last two years is 99/26, less than a 4/1 ratio of walks to strikeouts. At home it’s more pronounced, at 110/26, but it’s still nowhere close to a 10/1 ratio that you claimed. He has regressed this year though, just so you can’t say I’m cherry picking or anything, but even this year’s rate isn’t close to 10/1, at 67/10 at home and 48/10 on the road. It sets at about 5/1, which isn’t good by any means, but it’s still not 10/1.

Kind of like the 800 OPS figure you threw out, the numbers say you’re wrong, but I’m sure you’ll say that the numbers are wrong because you’re eyes tell you otherwise. Until Kouz proves your eyes right, I’ll take the cold hard facts of the stats instead.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Sep 8, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

Well Said!!!!!!!

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 8, 2008 7:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

Nothing is worse than some poor guy trying to deflect attention from his faulty argument by pretending that I can’t use words correctly.

by mrkupe on Sep 9, 2008 6:06 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yes, he has improved his K/BB rate lately and it was never 10 to one as I

said. I apologize for the exageration. But to attribute Kouz’s numbers to the Petco factor ignores all the other reasons for disparity in the numbers. How about his inability to hit LH pitching or his substandard performance at night? You will take the cold hard facts of your choosing and ignore all the others. Could it be because almost all games at Petco are at night because of our weather? Or could there be an influence in the number of LHers he faces because of Petco’s design and his inability to hit them? Or is it a combination of the three factors? Closed minds like the two of you will never know because your mind is made up about the “Petco Facor” being the sole reason. Notice any change from Cleveland? You guys are all about facts to support your theory and ignore anything to the contrary! BTW, for the really ignorant, what the hell does Barfield have to do with anything? Cleveland traded two excess players who were of little value to them for one who has little value. So what? It doesn’t change the fact that Kouz has holes in his swing and does not field well. Really look at all the numbers before relying on the Petco factor as the sole justification for his performance.

by sdtribefan on Sep 8, 2008 10:52 PM EDT 0 recs

Two excess players of little value?

I think Kouz would look pretty good at 3B in Cleveland.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 8, 2008 11:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

I am an indian fan and I would much rather have

Casey Blake, by a huge margin, over Kouz. The tribe felt the same way. Actually, the Pads could use Barfield more than Cleveland needs Kouz. The indians have an organization full of 3B prospects and the only 2B propect the Pads have has completely faltered this year.

by sdtribefan on Sep 9, 2008 3:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

Interesting

I tried looking into the day/night home/road splits, and there is probably a site somewhere that can show those numbers, but I tried to compile them myself, but during a 3 hour IM discussion I made a couple of mistakes for sure, but basically I think the “substandard performance at night” thing is pretty well derived from him putting an OPS just over 600 at night…..at Petco. The number I have is .614, but I ended up with 33 more night time AB’s overall than Yahoo lists, but I’m guessing the number is pretty close. With the same margin for error, I have him at .793 OPS at night on the road, which I’m guessing is a bit low, since his road OPS overall is .806.

If you know of a site where we could see Kouz’s day/night home and road splits, I’d be interested to see it, and see how close I was. I really do think the evidence shows he just can’t hit at Petco, but he can hit everywhere else, at least at a level around the .800 OPS you say he can’t reach.

As for the inability to hit LH pitching this year, I don’t know what to make of it. He crushed them last year to the tune of .356/.376/.596, so I don’t know what the issue is this year.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Sep 9, 2008 3:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

Wow, that's a lot of work! MLB.com to pads home page and check splits

ought to make it much easier as well as prove my case. His home/road splits for RHers are similar. It is the huge decline against both LHers and night games that make the difference. Yes, they are worse at Petco than on the road but that would be saying the Petco effect is limited to LH pitching at night. You got some work to convince me of that!

I really followed Kouz closely in the minors and he had some unusual splits then as well. Nothing would have made me happier than to see this guy overcome huge odds, especially after the fall. But the indians knew that he was not really a MLB 3B defensively and had made the reluctant decision to move him to 1st. They were also concerned about the long term viability of his back. They made the decision that there was more upside in Marte, which has proved incorrect, but they always had Casey Blake, who would be superior to Kouz offensively and defensively. In that they were very correct. I watch Kouz all the time. I wonder what would have happened without the injury. But the truth is, as I said, he has holes in his offense. All season long I have watched LHers throw changeups away and fbs/sliders inside. But you give the guy a mistake and he will hit it.

I apologize for lumping you in with the “king”. You are obviously willing to do the work and I suspect you will be willing to check out the stats that support my position.

by sdtribefan on Sep 9, 2008 4:22 AM EDT up 0 recs

Why didn't I look there before?

Man, I wasted a lot of time. I checked places like fan graphs and first inning thinking they would be the place to have odd info I was looking for. The thing about LHP is just so odd, he crushed them last year and struggling mightily this year. Any difference in the approaches from last year to this year you can see? Either from pitchers or from Kouz?

Here are the splits:

Road at night: .816 OPS Home at night: .621 OPS
Road daytime: .784 OPS Home daytime: .908 OPS
Road vs. LHP: .853 OPS Home vs. LHP: .479 OPS
Road vs. RHP: .784 OPS Home vs. RHP: .779 OPS

Here is what I make of them. The road D/N splits seem fine, it puts him in the .800 OPS range he’s shown he can produce outside of Petco each of the last two years. The road L/R splits make a lot of sense honestly, since he’s a RH batter and most often a RH batter will hit better vs. LHP. It shows at least a very solid split vs. RH pitching, which is usually a concern in some guys, like say Bill Hall.

The daytime numbers, I’m honestly a little skeptical on, because of such a small sample size. I mean his road daytime numbers are somewhat normal, but the home daytime numbers are a bit high, but then he had two games where he collected about 30% of his hits and 60% of his HR, so that makes it kind of flukey I think. The night time numbers I feel a little more confident in, as he has about 200 AB’s worth of data for each home and road. It just really seems to me that it’s not that he can’t hit at night, or that he can’t hit LHP, all the outlying unusual numbers occur at Petco. His road splits, both day/night and L/R seem pretty normal. It’s the 300 OPS point difference at home between L/R and day/night that seems so odd.

Thanks for linking me to the right place to look, but these flukey numbers aren’t enough to change my mind that for whatever reasons- dimensions, weather, matchups, or even being uncomfortable-Kouz just doesn’t hit at Petco like he does outside of there. I really think if you put him in a different park for 81 games, you’d see him post an OPS of 800 or better, because the data seems to support it.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Sep 9, 2008 11:52 AM EDT up 0 recs

Then we can agree to disagree.

You have done the work and come to a different conclusion. Even though he hits RH pitching equally on Road/Home splits, you attribute that to Petco. Sorry, contradiction between supposition of Petco effect and reality. He hits pitchers better at home in daylight. Is the Petco effect suspended in the daytime? I find it interesting that you characterize any number that supports my position as flukey but the data supports your supposition. Can’t have it both ways, lad!!! the numbers are either real or not!!! Can’t pick and choose or you are Kingy and Kupe but with better English. Either that or just watch them play and analyze them like I do. My seats at Petco are field level on the first base side right along the 3B foul line. Real good look at 3B defense. Same for RH batters.

by sdtribefan on Sep 9, 2008 5:27 PM EDT 0 recs

Response

Hi. This is Kevin Kouzmanoff. He has a .751 OPS and posted a .786 OPS last year, in a park that is absolute death to hitters. When not playing in that park, he posted an OPS of .824 in 2007 and has an OPS of .806 this year. He has managed to do this despite your insistence that he definitely can’t come close to such a figure. He does not care that you say that he can’t hit low breaking balls or high fastballs. He doesn’t even care that you try to conceal your obvious disdain for him by complimenting him on his work ethic.

Hi. This is Kevin Kouzmanoff. Contrary to your assertion that his career ended several years ago in the Arizona Fall League, he is actually playing baseball in the major leagues. The Cleveland Indians came to the conclusion that his back would not hold up under the strain of playing third base over the long-term. Kevin Kouzmanoff has proven them correct thus far by not playing in 17 games last year, and only doing moderately better this year. He has definitely not justified the total cost of $790,800 that the San Diego Padres have had to pay him for these two seasons.

Hi. This is Casey Blake. This is the guy that following the 2006 season, the Cleveland Indians decided would be (to borrow your words) “superior to Kouz offensively and defensively.” They traded Casey Blake in 2008 as their season went down the crapper, but for that season and a half, they were definitely right. Well, as long as you’re excluding the first season, in which Kouzmanoff posted a higher OPS than Blake. Ultimately, the Cleveland Indians were proven correct in their belief that Casey Blake was worth over ten times as much as Kevin Kouzmanoff over the 2007 and 2008 seasons.

Hi. This is Josh Barfield. Nobody has any use for this guy at all. Not even the San Diego Padres. There is no use in pretending that the San Diego Padres somehow did the Indians a favor by trading Barfield to them, especially when they “only” got a starting third baseman in return. I tried to pretend. I just really couldn’t. Barfield sucks.

Hi. This is the definition of hyperbole. You are right, you did not exaggerate the claims of others at all, and you definitely didn’t exaggerate your own claims. I believe this, despite your own admission.

Hi. This is sdtribefan. He is an egomaniac who tries to bully other people into agreeing with his opinions, no matter how unfounded and provoked solely by personal bias they might be, and then tries to make peace when somebody makes the mistake of spending time on proving him wrong (all while refusing to admit that he’s lost, of course). And I am done with him. Frankly, I’m ashamed of myself for spending as much time as I did in responding here.

by mrkupe on Sep 9, 2008 10:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

LOL

I just don’t understand why he was asserting that I should check to see how Kouz does on the road during day games, or against LH pitchers, etc. If that is SDtribefan’s point to prove Kouz is bad, shouldn’t SDtribefan being doing the research. By the way Kupe you forgot:

Hi. This is Andy Marte. I struggle to hit .200 in the majors and my work ethic is constantly questioned. I am quite valuable to a team if their goal is to win minor league homerun derbies. Unfortunately, I am now starting for Cleveland and may be forced to next year as well as none of their 3B prospects are ready. If Cleveland would have kept Kouz, perhaps they would have had a good 3B until Hodges is ready to begin contributing in 2010.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 9, 2008 10:29 PM EDT up 0 recs

I already know the answers. Not my job to do your work.

It is difficult to tell who has been sniffing their acne cream more, you or kupey.

by sdtribefan on Sep 10, 2008 2:14 AM EDT up 0 recs

At least we have something in common,

I am ashamed of you as well. And any other person with has graduated 9th grade who starts a sentence with the phrase, “Injecting hyperbole”, to show his command of the English language and demonstrate his superiority in thought. Love to see you diagram that sentence.

I don’t try to bully people. Don’t really care that much about what they think. But I will listen to them and when I misjudge, I admit it freely. I just don’t apologize to you because it is not warranted with your juvenile comments and insisting on your brilliance warranting some kind of adulation. As for response, you started the whole thing. I never post to you unless you deliberately irritate me with your sophomoric jibes.

BTW, your summation is a work of art. It’s hard to tell who has been sniffing their acne cream longer, you or the King.

by sdtribefan on Sep 10, 2008 2:09 AM EDT up 0 recs

Huh

Ok, that’s cool. If you want to take the 70AB’s he has at home during the day and say that proves Petco doesn’t effect him, and then ignore the 202AB’s at night where he can’t hit a lick, well that’s your choice. I’ve said I think his daytime home numbers are pretty odd too, it’s a very small sample size. The guy hit 10 HR at home, 5 of those came in 70AB’s during the day, yet 3 of those 5 came in two games over 11AB’s. He also has been hit by a pitch 4 times in those 70AB’s at home during the day, yet he’s been hit only 12 times all year in 554AB’s. So many things have happened in those 70AB’s that are out of character compared to the overall numbers, that it seems off to me. You’re saying that I’m only looking at the numbers that support my position, but I think you’re doing that. His daytime home AB’s show he can hit at Petco. His home AB’s vs. LHP show he can’t hit LHP. You’re taking the two smallest sample sizes of his splits and saying that those numbers show you’re right. I’m taking the larger samples and saying you’re wrong. I suppose it’s possible I’m all wet here, but I’ll take the larger samples sizes and more data side of the argument.

"So's your mom"-David Sloane

by gatling on Sep 10, 2008 12:28 AM EDT up 0 recs

I think you have made my points well except

I did not say Petco did not effect him. I said Petco was not the sole determining factor in his hitting and that other factors contibuted more. Whether or not you agree is irrelevant to me. You acknowledge the other factors which do not fall in line with your assertion that the Petco effect is the sole determining factor. As I said, your conclusion about sample sizes means nothing to me. I am not a stathead, you are.

by sdtribefan on Sep 10, 2008 2:21 AM EDT 0 recs