Jim Callis Ranks Flores Above Martinez
by Duece on Sep 4, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
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PrintJosh (NC): Mets #1 Prospect-Fernando Martinez or Wilmer Flores?
Jim Callis: Wilmer Flores.
Can't agree here. Wilmer has put up some gaudy numbers but I can't jump off the F-Mart bandwagon yet. I still believe Fernando will be a solid big league player, borderline star at times, while the jury is still out on Wilmer. I really, really, can't believe someone such as Jim Callis would make this kind of statement. Usually, they don't put much stock into the rookie ball stats.. And I mean, it's not like Fernando struggled as a 19 year old in AA..
Obviously, with Fernando, he needs to stay healthy. He only got what? 350 AB this year, so the Mets are putting him in Winter Ball to get that closer to 500 in a season.. IMO, I'd say F winter ball and get him on an OD workout program and fill out his body quick.
Would anyone here rank a 17 year old doing it in Rookie ball above F-Mart?
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Wow
I have to say this suprises me quite a bit. I wonder if it says more about Wilmer, or less about Felix.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 4, 2008 6:57 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah
It probably doesn’t affect him much either.
My bad....
I meant F Mart.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 5, 2008 9:46 AM EDT up reply actions
Can someone that young be your top prospect?
I mean, maybe in extenuating circumstances, like if you put Flores in the Astros system before the draft, he’d have to be number one. Or Villalona for the Giants before last year’s draft. But in general, should it be possible to consider a just-17-year old a team’s best prospect?
Sure
If a guy is that good, I guess he is that good. As you stated, Angel deserved it prior to this year. However, I am not sure if I would rank Wilmer ahead of Felix.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 4, 2008 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Villalona
He was the Giants top prospect at 17 coming into this season (well after the draft) in BA’s rankings. They like upside. I like upside too.
And the Mets’ have an awful system so that makes it easier. This probably says a good bit about Callis’ opinion of Fernando, though.
Flores
Watching him tonight, he looks completely over matched. He’s swung at every fastball thrown at him, and though he laid off a couple of good sliders, looks like he has a hard time extending his arms for the outside pitch.
BTW, the Mets system isn’t awful. It just goes under the radar, and I like it that way.
Saw the game on tv
and when Wilmer was up he just did not look as if he had any sort of pitch recognition. Saw him chasing pitches constantly as well as behind on the fastball. Its my first game watching him, and Ive been wanting to see him play badly, but now I have to temper my expectations. The kid is 17 and needs plenty of time.
according to who? you?
or the many others like you who don’t know any of the names so you just assume they’re bad. deuce is right, the system goes right under the radar and dopes just keep on bashing it even as it continues to produce.
last year’s “abhorrent” crop of youngsters has given us very solid contributors like joe smith, nick evans, dan murphy and argenis reyes with guys like carlos gomez and kevin mulvey having promising years for minnesota and milledge quietly having a pretty promising year for washington considering hes been banged up. oh yeah and hows mike pelfrey looking to you about now?
currently our “awful” system has a number of prospects having success at higher levels like jon niese, eddie kunz, mike carp, bobby parnell and oh yeah fernando martinez who are all almost ready to contribute. even further down you’ve got very interesting guys like wilmer flores, brad holt and scott moviel and this is all without talking about almost anyone from this years draft where there are a few very intriguing players, obviously davis and havens, but then guys like kirk nieuwenhuis. now i know you don’t know anyone that i just spoke about so its probably hard to follow all that but again, in that case just say you don’t know or even better, don’t post at all.
by Rob Castellano on Sep 5, 2008 8:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Nice
Well, at first I was just being smarmy, but you’ve actually convinced me that I was right.
Seriously, is that the best rebuttal you can come up with to my abhorrence coming into the season? You listed FOUR guys who weren’t even Mets’ prospects anymore. The fact that Pelfrey, Milledge, Gomez, Mulvey, Guerra, et al. had moved on or up is a root cause of the horribleness of the Mets’ system coming into this season, not some kind of mitigating factor.
I know who all those guys you listed are, btw. I’m sorry that I don’t think as highly as you do about the Bobby Parnells of the world.
whatever
i was addressing the system /last year/ which is what you said: “It was abhorrent LAST YEAR”. and i proved you wrong in that there were plenty of prospects worth noting which many commentators, like yourself but also including john and others, did not deem worthy of consideration yet are helping the mets win as we speak. NO, they are not all stud prospects but is a stud the only thing thats valuable? and YES, a number of them are out of the organization today which hurts the system presently, but you said last year and you were wrong.
as far as this year (or even last year) i’m not saying its a top 5 system, i’m not even saying its a top 15 system. i honestly don’t know where i would rank it because i don’t follow any other teams system closely enough. all i know is that it is in no way a system where a minor league baseball “expert” should have trouble finding 20 interesting guys (like john so inaccurately stated when doing the mets top 20 while leavings guys like murphy, parnell or evans to the bottom or even off the list completely") and its funny how many people just parrot what they hear and pile on the mets system without knowing the first thing about it beyond fernando, especially as the system continues to churn out at the very least solid major league players, often with the chance to be a lot more.
as far as parnell, i agree with you. his ability to be a dominant starter in the majors is overstated, hes never truly dominated at any higher level however i DO think he can be a good ML reliever as soon as next year. i also believe in his ability to develop into a good ML starter but not for 2-3 years at least, and again thats just me.
by Rob Castellano on Sep 5, 2008 11:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Last season
I was referring to seasons in prospecting terms, which is basically the major league off-season, but I understand that was unclear. As we are about to start seeing this year’s prospect rankings, “last year” referred to last year’s rankings and the time period thereabouts. The abhorrent period was after the Santana trade.
I'd think
That it’s more of a statement about FMart than Flores…
F-Mart
The problem with Fernando Martinez is that he always looks like his next year could be the one in which he stays healthy, breaks through, and removes doubt about his prospect status. But he also always looks like he may never do any of those things. So what do we do? Same as before. Wait til next year and hope he shows us more.
well
put it this way (how it was put on metsblog):
fernando can take 3-4 more years to develop before breaking into the majors and only then will he be reaching the same age(s) as dan murphy and nick evans today, as they break into the majors.
i know hes hasn’t blown us away yet but hes putting up very solid #‘s at AA, imagine what would happen if he sat there for 3 more years? murphy’s big ’08 in binghamton would most likely pale in comparison and murphy is transitioning well into the majors so far so what would that mean for fernando? WAY too early to jump ship like i am sensing is starting to happen.
by Rob Castellano on Sep 5, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm not jumping ship
I’m just not assuming the ship in question is Paul Allen’s yacht either.
count them up
people seem to think the mets system is barren and has been for years. lets take a look at the players who have broken into the majors out of our system over the last 2-3 years and evaluate it then:
CURRENTLY WITH METS
pelfrey (rookie in ’07) – was definitely rushed up in ’06 but has put it all together in ’08 and looks like top of the rotation starter as soon as next year
murphy (rookie in ’08) – VERY good knowledge of the strike zone for a rookie, at the very least a solid major league average LF, RF, 3B, 1B, 2B with the potential for a lot more
evans (rookie in ‘08) – like murphy looks at least league average and can play all over the diamond but with a worse eye at the plate, potential isn’t as high as murphys
joe smith (rookie in ’07) – like pelfrey was probably rushed, presently looks like a solid, cost-controlled member of the bullpen with the ability to dominate at times and at age 23 has potential to be more
OUT OF ORGANIZATION
milledge (rookie in ‘07) – sporadic ab’s killed his #’s in ’07, injuries hurt him this year but even doubters must admit hes nearly a lock to be AT LEAST a 20-20 candidate as soon as next year while putting up approx. a .270ba
gomez (rookie in ’07) – definitely should have been and should still be in the minors. playing a month w/ broken hand killed his line in ’07, but hes showing the raw ability to be another carl crawford, IF the twins can work with him on plate discipline. already has a top notch glove in center, maybe gold glove in a couple of years.
jesus flores (rookie in ‘07) – nats started him in the majors right out of our system and while he was obviously rushed, he kept his head above water long enough to last and now looks like soon he’ll be a top offensive catcher while about average in all defensive aspects.
brian bannister (rookie in ’07) – ROY candidate in ’07, a little worse than league average in ’08, probably lies somewhere in between. at least a good 4-5 in the majors.
heath bell (rookie in ‘05 due to days on roster, not appearances) – didn’t actually pitch 50+ innings until ’07 with SD and dominated. a top 5 setup man.
jeff keppinger (rookie in ’07) – first looked like a ML pinch hitter, then a super sub, now a league average SS and at times looks like he may become even more.
ABOUT READY TO HELP
niese – dominated AA, handled AAA at 21. with some more time at AAA could help very soon.
carp – one could argue that he was more deserving of the call than evans or murphy, has made huge strides with his plate discipline. can help as soon as spring ’09.
parnell – handled AA, above his head in AAA. the problem is secondary pitches and walks. thrown into a reliever role, relying more on his 96+ fastball, and i believe he is at least solid by next season, maybe even this sept.
kunz – looked dominant from ’07 draft until his debut, underlying split problems means he will not be the future closer without working on the changeup. at the least can be effective righty specialist by spring ’09.
not the caliber of players as wright and reyes from 2-3 years before, but plenty of players that will help a major league roster at all different levels. a couple of star level players (pelfrey, possibly gomez and/or milledge), with a number of good, average and role players mixed in. regardless, the mets system has been churning out good young players for years now, despite what experts and bloggers alike would have you think. now keeping many of them in the organization has been somewhat of a problem but thats another issue entirely.
*i mentioned argenis reyes in an earlier post but forgot that we only acquired him this offseason
thank you
people really underrate this system. There is also a ton of talent in the lower levels.
We aren’t arguing their system has been horrible for 5 years. We are arguing it isn’t good now. Listing players who used to be in it or have graduated doesn’t help your side of the arguement that the system is still good now. 2/3 of that post has nothing to do with this thread topic at all. Should Callis and BA really rank systems based on every single player that has been in their system the last 3-4 years?
I think part of the problem is
New York. These guys get so much hype that people get sick and tired of hearing about them, almost to the point where they become underrated. Almost.
Pay no mind
There’s nothing you can do.
by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 5, 2008 1:05 PM EDT up reply actions
My list
My quick take:
1. Fernando Martinez
2. Wilmer Flores
3. Daniel Murphy
4. Jon Niese
6. Nick Evans
5. Brad Holt
8. Mike Carp
7. Bobby Parnell
9. Reese Havens
10. Scott Moviel
11. Eddie Kunz
12. Jefry Marte
13. Dillon Gee
14. Josh Thole
15. Brant Rustich
16. Ezequiel Carrera
17. Maikel Cleto
18. Michael Antonini
19. Greg Veloz
20. Francisco Pena
HM: Ike Davis, Jenrry Mejia, Nathan Vineyard, Ruben Tejada,Tobi Stoner, Zach Lutz, Alonzo Harris, John Holdzkom, Elvin Ramriez, Juan Lagares
Response
Ike Davis not in the top 20 prospects?
Either everybody was lying about this guy in June or you know something we don’t. In this system he is an easy top 10 guy. The .256/.328/.327 line in short-season ball means next to nothing.
Niese belons above Murphy
I like Murphy, but let’s not overdo it because of a short time in the majors.
Rustich also belongs higher. Almost a k per inning and only one home run in 50 innings. He’s old for the level, but still very nice.
Rustich
He blew out his shoulder though, didn’t he?
by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 5, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions
didn't realize that
Apparently there was someting just last week about a stress fracture.
No idea how severe that is yet.
I don't remember
All I know was that he needed surgery.
by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 5, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
Davis
His swing is a bit of a project. His college approach isn’t going to translate to wood.
I'm pretty into Holt
and expect him to be at the top of the list – perhaps halfway through next year? also, anyone have thoughts on Kirk Nieuwenhuis? I’m also surprised Dylan Owen isnt getting more mentions. I think he could very well be in the mets top 10.
Nieuwenhuis...
I’ve seen him in person twice and on T.V. a few times and he seems pretty good. One comp I’ve heard that I really like is a Mark Kotsay twice. I’m not sure if his arm is strong enough for center field though, but at the plate he has a good approach and is pretty quick on the base paths. Has some decent pop could be a 15-20 guy.
Owen isn’t even close to the top 10 maybe not even the top 20. He has been getting by on command and is missing less bats every time he goes up a level. I like his slider so he could be a good bullpen guy.
Holt, Owen, Niewenhuis
Holt, I think it depends on how his secondary stuff progresses. I’ve seen some positive comments on it being better than expected at Brooklyn, but I’ve also seen a couple of people recently say they still see him as a reliever (I think it was Callis recently). He sustains the +FB deep into games, so the only reason he’d be a reliever is they obviously still aren’t sold on the rest of the repertoire.
Owen’s stuff isn’t as good as his numbers. When I’ve seen him, he was maybe sitting 88 mph; I think the slider is the only average or better MLB pitch. He often gets lumped in with Gee, but Gee sits around 91 mph touching 93-94, with a deep repertiore. Gee is pretty much able to throw 2 different FB, 2 different breaking balls, and 2 different CU with potential. Gee’s slider is maybe average for break/movement, but can play above average because he changes speeds well on it.
Niewenhuis I haven’t seen yet; I’ll see most of these guys at St. Lucie. But, I liked the pick at #100 in this years draft. I liked that he was MVP of a wood bat summer league (Alaska), and the tools sound promising, with a plus OF arm, some speed, and apparently some power projection there, though not a lot in game right now. Nice overall package.
Flores
Keep in mind he was 16 years old until a month ago, and tearing up the Appy league. He’ll be in A ball next year (and could probably handle A+) at 17.
Still, I do think some tend to over rate those guys sometimes at lower levels based on ceiling/upside. I would keep Fernando at #1 for now. But it does look like Flores could be special. If he looks slightly over matched (depite hitting .313) after his promotion to A ball, keep in mind he’s facing top college prospcets who are about 5 years older.
I still want to see where he is next year though before tabbing him as that elite; for now I’ll take the guy who is three years older but handling AA.
Flores
I think the most impressive thing about Flores is the power at such a young age. His discipline is crap so the average to me isn’t that important (unless he shows us that he’s a Soriano type free swinger that can keep up the average which is unlikely). But hitting for the power he does at such a young age…. wonders how much projectibility is in that young frame of his.
by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 5, 2008 2:11 PM EDT up reply actions
Defense?
Anyone know much about what his defense is like? Does he have the range/arm/glove to stick at SS or will he have to move off of it? I haven’t really heard anything about his defense other than what BA wrote in their Handbook this past season. They said “his futue devensive home is uncertain” which doesn’t say a whole lot. It’s probably to early to tell until he fills out some but was just curious.
At that age
I think the average is more important than discipline.
How many 16-17 year olds are going to have good discipline?
You can’t really judge much from walk rates for a guy that young playing above his level. That’s something that can improve dramatically with experience. Let him settle in at a level and it should improve.
Response
This time 2 years ago, Fernando Martinez was “special”. Just saying.
I’ll be impressed if Flores can handle the Sally League, and that’s with consideration given to the positive scouting reports. Going from short-season to full-season ball is a big jump in competition level for a player, and while the good short-season numbers are pleasing, long is the list of guys (of any age) who made noise in short-season ball and then proceeded to do zilch in full-season leagues.
Of course, Flores being so young, I imagine there will be plenty of people who will consider him to be a top prospect for the next 2-3 years as long as he’s capable of jogging to first base and removing his batting gloves after an at-bat.
Mets System
I am not a Mets fan, Red Sox fan here, but while this system certainly isn’t one of the best in baseball, it isn’t one of the worst. I think that the reason people put the system down is because they don’t have that one guy that is considered to be a top 25 or 15 prospect in the game. People glance over the system and say, well there isn’t that one guy who has the chance to be extremely good (not saying there isn’t the jury is still out on Martinez and Flores could be in the Appy League 3 years from now and still be allright, just pointing it out) like say the Diamondbacks or the Rockies (with Jarrod Parker, Scherzer, and Fowler). It seems that the current system has a lot of guys that could be solid, but not a lot of guys that you really project to be pereniall All-Stars. If your not a Mets fan, then there is no prospect that you can really get excited about (if you’re a Mets fan just look at if from the perspective of someone not a Mets fan). There are a lot of guys that as people have said “can contribute” but not a lot of guys that are impact guys (and when I say impact, I am talking about guys that can be All-Stars or close to All-Stars). Joe Smith may be able to make an impact, but I don’t know many people that would consider him to be an “impact guy.” I don’t know if you follow my drift. Glancing over the Mets system right now I see a lot of low level guys right now and maybe 4-5 high level guys in the top 20 or so.
Obviously if you follow the system you will know more about your system than anyone else will and you may overhype (don’t know if that is the right word, think more highly may be a better phrase) some of your guys. I know for a fact that I do it sometimes with the Red Sox system. That’s just the fact of being a fan, you will almost always think more highly of guys in your system than others will.
Anyways this is how I would rank the Mets system currently (feel free to call me out because there may be someone that I missed since I don’t follow the system).
1. Fernando Martinez, OF – jury is still out on him, if power develops he could be something special, if he doesn’t I don’t really see much there for a corner OFer. Of course, he is 20 right now and showed more power this year. In my opinion, he should be in the minors for about 2 more years as he is still really young and could benefit from extra time in the minors.
2. Wilmer Flores, SS
3. Dan Murphy, 3B/2B – likely won’t be on any lists as he needs just 48 at-bats to terminate rookie status. If he can play an average second base then he may be one of the better second base bats in the NL, if he is a third basemen (which he won’t be in NY) I don’t see enough in terms of power to stick to 3b.
4. Jon Niese, LHP
5. Brad Holt, RHP – someone that is rising in prospect circles, if I remember Jim Callis or a scout said something along the lines that clubs could regret passing over him.
6. Mike Carp, 1B
7. Nick Evans, 1B
8. Reese Havens, SS – this is someone that I was hoping would slip to the Red Sox at 30 but got snatched up by the Mets. Lackluster so far in Brooklyn so far. I believe he can be a Jed Lowrie type, maybe a little better power.
9. Ike Davis, 1B – still plenty of time for him
10. Bobby Parnell, RHP – as people have said, never dominated but has been good, back of the rotation starter or possibly reliever
11. Eddie Kunz, RHP
12. Greg Veloz, 2B
13. Brant Rustich, RHP
14. Scott Moviel, RHP – really like this kid because of his size (6’8")
15. Nate Vineyard, LHP – I don’t know the seriousness of his injury, but someone that could shoot up to the top if he’s healthy and pitching well.
This could be a total different discussion next year if guys progress, but currently I would put the Mets system in the low 20s just because they don’t have that one guy that I talked about earlier. They have a lot of guys that could be big leaguers or are close to doing so.
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