What do you think of these prospects?

by psugator on Sep 28, 2008 11:02 PM EDT

Would appreciate your opinion on these six prospects. They're currently the bottom six on my 30-man minor league roster.

Wendell Fairley: Huge upside but he appears raw at this point. Should I wait for him to develop? Will he ever develop?

Jonathan Lucroy: Behind Salome. Seems to hit for high average. Had a combined 20+ HR this year between SAL and FSL.

Aaron Laffey: Was dominant the first few months of the season until struggling and then getting sent down, where he continued to struggle.

Carlos Triunfel: Very hyped prospect. According to BA, is only showing one above-average tool, that being arm strength, which doesn't help me much as a fantasy owner. Also has yet to hit for power. Still young. Should I continue to wait?

Travis D'Arnaud: I have Lucroy, Flowers, Skipworth and Salome. Do I really need D'Arnaud, too?

Daniel Murphy: Was voted the best hitter in the Eastern League this year, then was promoted to NYC, where he continued to rake. Not sure how much value he has in a LF platoon. Would seem to have tons of value if he were to move to second. Any truth to Murphy being Mets' 2B of the future? Should I keep him around?

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Daniel Murphy

I read that he is going to start at 2nd base in the Arizona Fall League this winter so there seems to be truth to that rumor and with his AVG. and power at 2nd base he can become a good fantasy player.

by Pelferized on Sep 29, 2008 12:31 AM EDT reply actions

Murphy at second

I’ll preface this by saying I’m a Mets fan. While I haven’t heard anything to this effect, I have a feeling that the Mets are having Murphy work out at first in the hopes that he can play well enough that he wouldn’t be a liability if he were to play there a day or two a week. Even if Murphy and Evans are utilized in a straight platoon in left, I think they’d like to be able to get Murphy’s bat into the lineup on those days when Evans gets to play left.

Considering that Murphy isn’t an excellent third baseman by any means, I’ll be really surprised if he somehow figures out how to play a good second. What little he has played there, he’s been pretty awful.

I don’t really understand the knock on Murphy’s power though. No, he’s not a thirty homer guy, but he did have 13 homers and 26 doubles in 357 Double-A ABs; those are pretty solid power numbers if a guy is capable of hitting .300. Especially when you consider that the Mets get way above average power production from shortstop and center field, the Mets can get away with having a more on-base oriented player in left. It’s certainly not absurd to imagine Murphy putting up an .820 OPS over a whole season, which isn’t the kind of production you complain about, even in left.

by Fanon on Sep 30, 2008 12:18 AM EDT up reply actions

I always pictured him...

putting up a line similar to what Mike Lowell does. 280-300 batting average with close to 20 homers and 35-40 doubles a year. For some reason that’s just the sense I get from him.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Sep 30, 2008 2:14 AM EDT up reply actions

Maybe

I don’t think he’ll produce for quite as much power as Lowell, but that’s a pretty decent comp. I expect Murphy to produce a tick less in the power department and a bit better in batting average and on-base.

by Fanon on Sep 30, 2008 9:29 AM EDT up reply actions

by mets fan...

…do you mean someone who wears mets apparell, yet doesn’t pay attention to anything related to the actual game? Murphy IS playing 2nd in the AFL, that is a fact, look at the roster. I am glad that since you are obviously so observant as to deny this fact since apparently you aren’t coaching the team yourself, that you went on an gave us the reason why he would possibly do this. I’ll let you in on a secret, the Mets don’t have a second baseman and Wright is ok at 3rd I hear.

by IHateMitchMustain on Oct 1, 2008 8:06 AM EDT up reply actions

minaya said

That just because he is playing 2b in AFL doesn’t mean he will be a 2b. He said he may play some first, and he is playing 2b just to make him versatile.

Omar seems to be blowing smoke though. The need is at 2b. Murphy would be wasted at 1b.

by wobatus on Oct 1, 2008 3:51 PM EDT up reply actions

Whoa

I meant to say second, not first.

Considering that he was fringy as a third baseman and was a butcher with the glove at second while in the minors this season, I don’t think he’ll cut it as an everyday second baseman in the majors. Keeping his bat in the lineup a day or two a week and taking the hit on defense might make sense, particularly with a strikeout pitcher on the mound rather than a guy like Pelfrey. In case you didn’t notice, the Mets have Castillo signed for another three years and don’t have a left fielder.

Besides my typo saying that he was being tested at first, I don’t see what your beef is.

by Fanon on Oct 1, 2008 4:00 PM EDT up reply actions

Fairley....

is the only one I don’t know anything about. Laffey has the least upside, but can still be a nice bench SP for you down the line. Someone who has occasional good seasons and a lot of mediocre ones. He is someone you play match-ups with when he is getting two starts in a week.

I like Lucroy (drafted him this past season), Triunfel (I am a Mariner fan) and Murphy (almost drafted him, but I didn’t think he would stick at 3B and I had already gotten Coghlan for 2B). I would definitely hang onto all three. With all the catchers you have, you might try to trade D’Arnaud and see what you can get for him. Maybe improve another position.

Oh, and last I heard, and this is like 9th hand info… Lucroy had moved ahead of Salome on the Brewers future plans. I think they expect Salome to change positions. Lucroy may not have the best defense, but it should be league average by the time he reaches the majors. And all evidence points to the Brewers not being sticklers for solid D lol.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Sep 29, 2008 4:05 AM EDT reply actions

Salome to another position?

What other position can a 5’7" play?

Mike Newman
baseballhandyman.blogspot.com

by Baseball Handyman on Sep 29, 2008 8:55 PM EDT up reply actions

5'7"

Unfortunately, DH would be the only other position he could be useful filling. Thus, he is going to be given even more time than most would receive to stick at catcher.

by ILuvDaBush on Sep 29, 2008 10:26 PM EDT up reply actions

2B

is I think the rumor I heard… which may have just been a speculation from a poster here, or they may have read it elsewhere, I don’t know.

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Sep 30, 2008 2:12 AM EDT up reply actions

Huh?

That’s an awfully square shaped second baseman at 5’7, 200 pounds, even with the Brewers’ preference for bats over gloves.

by Fanon on Sep 30, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions

The next Rafael Belly-lard?

"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile

by Boxkutter on Sep 30, 2008 11:57 PM EDT up reply actions

Murphy

Murphy’s bat would play great at 2B, as he has limited power potential, but his walks are definitely for real if you watch his at bats. I only wonder if he’s a valuable fantasy player. I don’t play fantasy baseball, but he’s not going to be a big counting stat guy. Is that a huge problem?

by aap212 on Sep 29, 2008 1:45 PM EDT reply actions

well.........

i won’t have to make a decision until he reaches 500 ABs so i’m ok for most of next season. by then i should know what kind of player he’ll be.

by psugator on Sep 29, 2008 5:47 PM EDT reply actions

Response

Fairley: He doesn’t have the speed of Jose Reyes or Jerry Owens, he’s not to big or small, so far the only thing he has going is discipline. He looked good in High School, but I don’t see him as being that projectable. a comp for his upside could be Eric Byrnes at best, Reggie Willits w/ a little more pop optimistically, or a complete bust.

Jonathan Lucroy: I can’t think of any comparables, but he’ll probably debut at 24 if he continues to hit like this. Maybe a Josh Wilingham comp is appropriate.

Aaron Laffey: Back end starter probability, with Andy Sonnanstine or Robinson Tejeda potential

Carlos Triunfel: I always liken him to a low average hitter for whatever reason. My prediction has him at .260/.340/.480 on an average year for him, and he’ll probably end at 3rd

Daniel Murphy: I wasn’t too optimistic about him before he was promoted, but a good upside comp above was mike lowell, but I think a Kelly Johnson in 2007comp is a bit more accurate.

by METSMETSMETS on Sep 30, 2008 5:05 PM EDT reply actions

Fairley

I believe Wendell is 20, so he was old for the Rookie League. And he got off to a horrible start, striking out more often than than a computer geek at a model convention.

But Wendell did raise his average 40 points each month, which one could argue isn’t all that tough given that he his something like .216 in his first month on the job. I would say the jury is certainly still out on Wendell, but I wouldn’t give up on him just quite yet.

He may be a late bloomer like the Giants’ Fred Lewis, although I think Wendell might actually have the higher ceiling. And, yes, despite his sweet swing, he has shown very little power and could indeed be quite a bust for the #29 overall pick in 2007.

by sharksrog on Oct 2, 2008 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions