Delmon Young is hitting .462 when ahead in the count.

by Justin & Joe on Sep 27, 2008 7:31 PM EDT Comment 24 comments

That's absurd. Just imagine if he develops some patience at the plate...

He's like a volcano on the verge of blasting lava into the sky and covering several states in an inch of ash.

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Well

I suppose the cynical response to this is to say that everyone has a phenomenally better average when they’re ahead in the count, but that feeds into exactly what you’re saying. The more he’s ahead in the count, the higher the average he hits for and the better pitches he sees.

It’s not much of a revelation, but you’re right.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 27, 2008 11:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That's nothing

On 3-0 counts, Jeff Francoeur has a 2000 OPS. Of course, it’s only 18 plate appearances, and five of them were intentional walks.

by aap212 on Sep 28, 2008 3:53 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

To the first two responses

I think you two are being a bit silly. Of course everyone knows that hitters hit better ahead in the count.. I think the point here is that Delmon hits extraordinarily well in that situation even compared to others.
I’m fairly certain that .462 when ahead in the count is far above the norm. And that does have meaning.

And that Francouer thing is a just a silly non sequiter.. i mean really, wtf?

by nms on Sep 28, 2008 2:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I think the point is

First, its most likely a small sample size we’re dealing with because of Young’s horrible discipline. Second, I’d like to see the numbers as far as good hitters when ahead in the count. I’m fine with acknowledging that Delmon has a lot of potential and could compare with the best players in baseball if he gets more discipline, but the implication here is that he’s better than literally everyone else in the game… which I don’t like.

If Young is hitting .050 or .100 points higher in situations when he’s ahead, that’s a legit point. But with nothing to compare his numbers to, we can’t make an appropriate call.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 28, 2008 4:15 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Exactly

Delmon Young isn’t ahead in the count so infrequently because of bad luck. It’s because he has no plate discipline. In fact here’s another question:

Is it possible that Young hits so well ahead in the count, because most of the time, a pitcher has to suck to fall behind him in the count?

by aap212 on Sep 28, 2008 8:03 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs

93 AB

That’s how many ABs Delmon Young had when he was ahead of the count (if I did my math right). That’s not a big sample size. I wouldn’t get too excited by it. (Kevin Mass or Shane Spencer, anyone?)

by sabernar on Sep 28, 2008 6:54 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

23

That’s how old Delmon turned two weeks ago. He’s increased his walk rate and slightly decreased his K rate.

Since Gardenhire stopped playing him every damn day he’s hit 310/346/450/796 with all 10 of his homers and 22 of his 28 doubles coming during this time (May 30th to present).

While that isn’t particularly eye popping it does bode well for the future and overall his hitting line is better than last year giving him a 100 OPS+ vs. and 2007 91 OPS +. If he can work hard in the off season he can get better and at least develop into an above average player in the league.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Sep 29, 2008 2:03 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I am guessing there are quite a few teams that would want a 23 year old with the array of skills that Delmon Young has. Last I checked most players steadily improve skills (especially someone with the tools that Young has) up until the age of 27/28.

By my count, at current production levels (averaging approximately 175 hits per season), that would put him at around 1300 hits by the end of his age 27 season.

Does anyone expect his power and plate discipline to stay stagnant over the next 5 years? I would think not, to me, in a worst case scenario you have a threat to hit .300 (.288, .292 the past two years with current plate discipline) with 20 HR’s and 20 SB’s every year. With his ceiling and tools things could go a lot higher.

Go look for comps for him and they are hard to find. Not many guys were up in the majors putting in this much time at this young on an age. In fact (and by no means am I saying he will become Roberto Clemente), but take a look at Clemente’s (one of the few players to have a couple full seasons in the majors at this age) numbers. They are shockingly similar.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/c/clemero01.shtml

"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"

by BStal11 on Sep 29, 2008 5:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

I see why some people are optimistic, but he also looks an awful lot like a Jose Guillen or Jeff Francoeur type to me. He did great in the minors and was called up young, but he hasn’t developed his skills in the majors at all, his plate discipline is lousy, and his pedigree vastly outstrips his performance. Plus, he’s looking a little pudgy. I’m not optimistic at all.

by aap212 on Sep 29, 2008 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My point is...

I’d rather have Young than essentially any 23 year old prospect out there over the next 5 years.

"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"

by BStal11 on Sep 29, 2008 5:50 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then I whole-heartedly disagree

Young had a 115 ISO this year. The primary thing that had excited people about him is his power. He’s a poor defensive corner outfielder with bad plate discipline and no power in the majors. After two years and change in the majors, I’d like to see some kind of performance or a return to the minors.

“Any 23 year old prospect” is kind of a weird criterion since a lot of top prospects have lost their prospect status (and played better) by Young’s age, like Longoria and Upton. Matt LaPorta’s one 23-year old I’d much rather have right now. Adam Jones is another. And there are plenty of guys who turn 23 next year, like Wieters, who have more positional value and would be disappointed to hit like Young has.

Delmon Young is a poor man’s Matt Kemp right now.

by aap212 on Sep 29, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Jones

What kind of power has he shown in the majors? What kind of plate discipline has he shown? He had 9 homers and 23 BB. Also, he hit for a lower average then Young, and had a lower OBP and SLG.

Rather having Laporta is ridiculous considering how far behind he is from a development standpoint, and the fact that he is destined to DH. Also, he was terrible after arriving in Cleveland and has not shown that he can be a great hitter in the majors (although I think he has a bright future).

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2008 6:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adam Jones is an absurdly good defensive player. The only player better defensively that him in CF may be Carlos Gomez, whose just a freak.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Sep 29, 2008 11:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Also

If Delmon Young is a poor man’s Matt Kemp than Adam Jones is a poor man’s Delmon Young.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2008 6:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

No

Adam Jones is a good defensive centerfielder, while hitting a tick worse than Young, who is a poor defensive leftfielder. That makes a big difference. I’d rather have Kemp than either.

But if you want other guys born in 1985, I’d take Asdrubal Cabrera over Young (look at his second half this year if you’re willing to look at Young’s pitch count splits). I’d also take Lastings Milledge, who’s put up comparable stats and better defensive value, despite being hit unlucky. I’d obviously take Joba, would definitely take John Danks, probably take Brandon Wood or Felix Pie, and would think real hard about trading Young straight up for Ian Stewart, Salty, or Carlos Gomez.

The hope is that Young ends up like Albert Belle (on the field) and busts out in his mid-twenties, but Belle didn’t start pro ball until he was 20, and he certainly didn’t rack up 1400 PA with only 26 homers in the majors.

by aap212 on Sep 29, 2008 7:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Look at his first half stats too....

If you would take Wood, Pie, Stewart, Salty, Gomez and ASDRUBAL for Young then I really don’t know what you are looking at. Only one of those guys has been remotely near as good as Young and the majors.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Adrubal

Is an excellent middle infielder with on base skills. I’m willing to take that over the gamble that two full years of Young not hitting for power or drawing walks is an illusion. I’d rather have the guys who play up the middle than Young if I think it’s close. Anyway, I’m bored of believer vs. non-believer arguments about Young. I still think there’s a chance he’ll be very good, but I would bet against it, and I’m not going to go in circles over the same arguments. I’m punching out.

by aap212 on Sep 29, 2008 7:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I WIN!!!!!

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Sep 29, 2008 8:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Garret Anderson

It took Garret Anderson some time to learn to hit for power, and the patience was never really there. At the same time, he’s always hit for fairly high average, and showed pretty steady skill development, eventually becoming a true middle of the order threat. I think this is what we should ultimately expect from Delmon.

by Fanon on Sep 29, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Lowered expectations

I think more than anything people think badly of Delmon because of his one time #1 prospect status. I don’t necessarily see him developing to the potential he once had but I still thinks its silly to think he’s a hack and will never cut it as a major league hitter. He already is by some definitions with having a OPS + of 100 this year. That’s an improvement over the 91 he hit last year. If I remember right 100 is average right? So if he’s average than by definition he’s better than half the people out there right? Maybe my logic is flawed I don’t know but to have a guy who just turned 23 being middle of the pack, I’m alright with that.

Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?

by halfchest on Sep 29, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oversimplifying

Your logic is solid, but you have to consider positional scarcity. OPS+ doesn’t adjust for position, and left field is a corner outfield spot. For a left fielder to be producing at league average offensively is pretty unimpressive, considering that within that average are a bunch of light hitting center fielders, middle infielders, and catchers. Delmon isn’t godawful, but he’s definitely below average offensively when you consider his position.

by Fanon on Sep 29, 2008 11:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs