For Your Consideration: Jonathan Ortiz

by RedSoxFaithful on Sep 25, 2008 9:26 PM EDT Comment 6 comments

I have been following Yankee minor leaguer Jonathan Ortiz for some time now, and have seen literally no other opinions or coverage of him. I have not (and do not) know what to make of the guy, so I'll give a little information about him here and see what you all can add.

Jonathan Ortiz is old for his level. He's 22, in low A ball, and the Yankees have (somewhat inexplicably) been slow in moving him up. He signed out of the Dominican in 2003, and was used as both a SP and a RP (with ridiculous success) in three seasons with the Yankees' DSL team (2004-2006). Ortiz made his stateside debut in 2007, and since then, has gotten as high as A+ Tampa, working exclusively as a reliever.

So, since at this point, people might be saying, "So what?", I think that it's time to note his stats. Though I don't have data for the Yankees' 2004 and 2005 DSL seasons, all of Ortiz's other seasons are noted below.

We have here a reliever with Lincecum-esque K-rates, Alderson-esque control, and Webb-esque HR tendencies. On top of that, his BABIP was actually high this year, at .344. On top of that, he has a history of starting (7 GS in 2006), though it's extremely unlikely he returns to it. Given the market that Ortiz's organization is in, media outlets everywhere should be praising this guy as the best future closer prospect this side of Tony Sipp. They aren't; why?

Jonathan Ortiz is not a top prospect, or anything close to it. I am not advocating for him to be treated as such. But, I'd love to know exactly what it is the Yankees have here. The stats scream stud, the lack of attention paid to him does not. Are there any followers of the kid out there who can shine some light on the situation?

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The dude is good for A-ball because his stuff isn’t that good from what I hear. I can’t tell you precisely because I’m not exactly sure. However he is Rule 5 eligible FWIW. If I can get a better read on his stuff and if he can rise meteorically through the system, then yes he can be a decent prospect. But there’s a reason that he stayed at A ball all year and wasn’t promoted to Charleston when arguably not as deserving relievers were.

--Pablo Zevallos of yankeesfuture.wordpress.com

by Pablo Zevallos on Sep 25, 2008 11:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

sounds to me ...

like organizational filler … if he were better he would’ve been promoted already. there are lots of 22-year-olds who dominate low-A. i’d like to see what he does at higher levels. but the yankees won’t allow that to happen because, obviously, he doesn’t deserve to be any higher up. and understand that if he had any value whatsoever you would’ve read about him by now.

by psugator on Sep 26, 2008 7:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well

He spent the year at Charleston, so there’s that. Plus, he reached A+ Tampa in ‘07. I don’t really think there IS a reason he stayed down in SAL this year- the Yankees missed an opportunity to challenge him, and the only way they’re going to get anything out of him anyway is to see what he can handle at an already-advanced age.

by RedSoxFaithful on Sep 28, 2008 5:04 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the high BABIP is in no way a good thing here

especially when you consider his own organization hasn’t treated him as anything more than filler. The high BABIP is just further support to the idea that he is nothing more than an old-for-league junk-throwing A-Ball reliever.

Of course, with no scouting reports all of this talk is useless

by nms on Sep 28, 2008 5:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Really?

I mean, if the entire concept of BABIP is that it reverts to a certain amount, how can putting up good stats with a high one (in other words, just another obstacle preventing a player from doing so) be a bad thing? I don’t think the BABIP’s support for anything negative here.

Also, while he is old-for-league, he’s not quite as old as we all are making him out to be… Many players out of college around that age are sent to similar leagues, right?

That being said, yeah, we don’t know much about him.

by RedSoxFaithful on Sep 28, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

the entire concept

of BABIP reverting to a certain range deals with established major league pitchers, and even then they do have SOME control over BABIP (hence you have your Glendon Ruschs and stuff)

As a result there is a survivor effect here. Only pitchers who can control their BABIP enough to hold it in a certain range can survive and become big league pitchers so a minor league pitcher with a high BABIP is just as likely to be a guy without the stuff to pitch in the majors as he is to be merely “unlucky”.

That last sentence is, obviously, a generalization. Other information can make ones opinion shift more to either side so in this case the fact that he is an oldish, minor leaguer reliever whose own organization doesn’t seem to treat him as anything more than filler makes it seem alot more likely that he is a guy without the stuff to succeed

by nms on Sep 28, 2008 6:03 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs