BA Carolina League Top 20

by Brett Keith on Sep 24, 2008 5:48 PM EDT Comment 42 comments

1 - Matt Wieters

2 - Jake Arietta

3 - Gorkys Hernandez

4 - Nick Weglarz

5 - Beau Mills

6 - Aaron Poreda

7 - Blake Wood

8 - Brandon Erbe

9 - Hector Rondon

10 - Chris Marrero

11 - Ross Detwiler

12 - Tyler Flowers

13 - Brandon Hicks

14 - Brandon Allen

15 - Carlos Rivero

16 - Brandon Snyder

17 - John Ely

18 - Josh Tomlin

19 - Kanekoa Texeira

20 - Billy Rowell

Now remember, these lists lean more towards performance than other BA lists, and rankings are in context of the league. NOW you can start whining.

0 recs | Comment 42 comments

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Comments

are these real?

if real. then it’s BS Daryl Jones did make it

by Bravesin07 on Sep 24, 2008 6:13 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

What Do You Think BA Stands For?

Brett’s assertations?

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Sep 24, 2008 6:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could you post Eastern League?

Thanks for typing these out.

by dkdc on Sep 24, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

In The FSL Thread

I said I’d do AA tomorrow, then AAA the next day.

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Sep 24, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jones is better than Gorkys

by Bravesin07 on Sep 24, 2008 6:31 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

VT Tigers

just rolled over in his grave.

by slurve on Sep 24, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A thread with Maybin

in it reminded me of him the other week.

1941 .406

by FrozenTed9 on Sep 25, 2008 12:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Daryl Jones Didn't Play In This League

He played in the FSL. That being said, he isn’t on that list either, and it does seem strange. Perhaps this was a mistake in the magazine, and it will be fixed when the list is released online. I’m sure if it wasn’t a mistake, there will be many questions about his absence in the chat.

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Sep 24, 2008 6:40 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How is Rowell on this list...

If this list has anything to do with production…..Rowell sucked this year.

by soccerman0 on Sep 24, 2008 6:48 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

They Don't Completely Ignore Tools/Projection

They just tend to lean more towards performance than normal BA lists.

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Sep 24, 2008 6:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Err

These aren’t scheduled to be out for a while. You get them leaked or something?

by mraver on Sep 24, 2008 9:21 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

I Recieved The Issue...

That has all the lists in it yesterday, decided to post the lists today.

"I hate the people that love me, and they hate me!"

by Brett Keith on Sep 24, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

marrero & flowers

are way too low! this list sucks!

I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?

by the pinstripes on Sep 24, 2008 11:42 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

it is what it is.

i drafted tyler flowers in my DMB league, and while this is disappointing, i’m not too upset about it. a guy with his 6’4" frame, his plate discipline, and with the way he exploded in august, his power is no longer projected. it’s here

i expected a significantly better showing, but i’m also much more disappointed by the fact that jason donald missed out entirely on the eastern league list, despite being a SS that’s got a legitimate chance to pedroia his way to a .300/.400/.500 season.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

wait

what?

you really see Jason freakin’ Donald as a guy with a chance at 300/400/500?
what on earth..?

by nms on Sep 25, 2008 10:35 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i've been around for a while

when i mocked the 2006 draft as the phillies on this site, i had donald on my short list of potential 3rd round selections. at the time, i saw him as someone who didn’t have much bat, didn’t have a great glove, and i didn’t really know why he was all that interesting. i didn’t draft him, but about a week later, the phillies did.

here’s his record as a professional:

personally, i see him more as a .280/.360/.450 player, but it’s not far to go from being that, to .300/.400/.500.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 10:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

Maybe I’ll be wrong, this things are tricky, but I would be SHOCKED if he ever does 300/400/500.

And he can’t play SS. At all.
He still looks like a solid player, maybe Kelly Johnson-ish but with less raw power but as much usuable game power (since Donald seems less passive)

by nms on Sep 25, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you've definitely got the wrong idea about donald

he’s got enough glove to stick at SS. he eats up everything he gets to, and while his range and arm are just on the under side of average, his play is perfectly passable. the only reason he;s not projected as the phillies’ starting SS next year is jimmy rollins. if he was in baltimore or kansas city, he’d have probably been starting by may.

i think what you saw was the futures game, where he botched 2 chances in 1 inning. he’s been much more steady in AA, playing every day, and he was much more steady in the olympics, where he led the tournament in batting average and on base percentage.

i know where you got your opinion, but i’m also pretty certain it’s wrong.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

how many times have you seen him play

his arm does NOT cut it at short. It is painful to watch sometimes.
I’m not basing this on the Futures game, I didn’t see it at all.

A minus arm, average actions and solid range = 2b.

by nms on Sep 25, 2008 12:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

so you see him as a second baseman, okay

what about his bat? how do you think it’ll play in MLB, having seen that he’s gotten better going from low A to AA? don’t most college bats usually lose OPS as they get to AA?

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 12:37 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i think it can play

he isn’t very strong looking but he is athletic and clearly knows how to swing the bat.

I just don’t think he is a 300/400/500 guy.
He ain’t Chase Utley (granted, Chase Utley didn’t look so Chase Utley-ish for awhile)
And that isn’t a slam on him, you don’t have to be an all-star or an MVP candidate to be a useful guy.
I think he can be a solid hitter, which is a nice thing to have at 2b.
As I said earlier, maybe a Kelly Johnson-ish kind of guy, except without Kelly’s raw power but a chance to use the juice he has more effectively than Kelly (who limits his production by being overly passive)

I do wonder how his future is going to unfold over the next year or two here.
He is clearly tradebait since SS and 2b are locked up (i suppose the Phils could try to pull a blockbuster and deal Rollins but that seems farfetched and silly).
Itd be nice if he could play 3b, since that has been a hole for the Phils sicne they ran Rolen out of town.

by nms on Sep 25, 2008 12:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

ryan howard

there’ve been rumors for a while now that howard’s on his way out. with anaheim’s trade for teixeira, the top bidder seems to be off the market, but if howard’s moved. that opens up a spot in the infield for utley to move over, and donald to move up.

and i’m not saying he’ll hit .300/.400/.500 every year, or over the entirety of his career, but he will hit that at least once, and he’ll challenge it a few more.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 1:17 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Not as high on Donald.

You make it seems like an 900 OPS for a middle infielder is common place. There is one SS with one, and he is arguably the best player in the league. The only 2B with over a 900 OPS is Utley. I don’t think I need to say more about his chances of putting up those kind of numbers.

To me, Donald looks slow and stiff. I’m not an expert and although many people talk as if they are, I do not see him sticking at SS at the major league level (as an above average fielder).

At the plate, he has poor line drive rates and a high BABIP which suggests some luck. He isn’t the burner who is bunting and racking up the infield hits on ground balls either.

I’d say he is more of a super utility man than a future all star (which is what you are predicting) on a tier one team.

Maybe 265//340//440 ??

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Sep 25, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

we;re not that far off.

i just happen to think he’s good enough to put up that line right now, and that he will peak much higher.

you don’t have to be a 17 year old dominican playing in the CAR league to have a high ceiling. it is possible for an underachieving college draftee to break out in a big way once he turns pro.

donald’s been on my radar for a while, and i’ve been pretty skeptical of him for most of the time, but when anyone improves going from low A to AA in the manner that donald has, i find reason to get excited.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 3:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Re: not that far off

Yes. Yes we are. Me ballparking that he is going to have around a 780 OPS (or lower) and you ball paring a 900+ is very different.

Reading is a pretty average park hitting wise minus the HR totals (he hit 10 HR at home and 5 on the road).

We aren’t close. To say that around 120- 150 points ops is close is just a case of not reading. Especially considering you think he will be a star (which is what you said with a 900 OPS).

Once again, a 900 OPS in the middle infield is Hanley or Utley, a 740-780 is Nick Punto (721) to Clint Barmes (795) and a few studs in between (who are old and had bad years)

I understand it is important to pat yourself on the back, but when making an argument try to actually make one. Rather than make generalizations about 17 year olds.

He is 23 in AA. He had a good year, but in my opinion doesn’t project to me above average at any facet of the game.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Sep 25, 2008 4:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe i misunderstood.

do you think his peak is a .780 OPS? if that is the case, then yes, we most definitely have a difference in opinion.

i believe he can OPS .750 day 1, starting right now. i believe his potential is well above that. i believe he can play a passable SS, and that the only reason he is projected to move off of it is because he’s blocked by an MVP.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

jeff blauser

just a comp, maybe. Haven’t looked at his stats in a bit. just a hunch.

by wobatus on Sep 26, 2008 1:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

as for that last part, i don't disagree.

he doesn’t have above average contact skills, or plate discipline, or power. he doesn’t have a great arm or range or a projectable body.

but if he can hit .280, draw a walk every once in a while, and hit a load of doubles, that’s a damn productive player at SS. and if those doubles start turning to homeruns, that takes his slugging average from the .420 range to the .480 range.

i think there is plenty of room to be a productive player without having any 1 plus plus tool.

hell, mike fontenot is hitting .280/.375/.500. is that an allstar?

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RE: Fontenot

Not to prove my point or anything… but Fontenot is a platoon player having almost all of his ABs against righties this year. (Also not he only has 230 ABs)

I’m not sure who you would compare him to, however I don’t see anything that makes me think he is a top tier player up the middle. That accounts for both offense and defense. While i think he could do well at second, he seems like a gritty player who could turn a nice DP, I see a small chance of him staying at SS.

I think .280 is high, but reasonable. A walk every once in a while tho doesn’t push him up to .360 OBP its more like .340, and the doubles while nice there is only one player in baseball with over 40 doubles and NOT in double digits for HRs.

In a full time roll, which again I don’t see happening, I think he could hit 12-15 HR with maybe 20-30 doubles. Similar to the year Lastings Milledge had but more towards this years statical version of Edgar Renteria.

I understand in 90+ games he hit 14 HRs at AA. But including park factors, advanced age, and higher levels of competition I don’t see those numbers are being too legitimate.

Also when a player has an XBH rate of 29% I don’t believe him to be someone to consider as a “doubles to HRs” guy. Its not like he is a projectable kid.

I could be convinced otherwise, but I just don’t understand the hype.

Remember: baseball guys... baseball...

by Metty5 on Sep 25, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

This is insane Variables....

You expect Donald to OPS .900 in the majors when he hasnt even done it in the minors? WTF? And on top of that, Donald isnt close to being that good.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Sep 25, 2008 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes, let's put out to pasture anyone with a dissenting opinion.

it doesn’t take great contact skills to hit .300. it doesn’t take great power to slug .500.

this isn’t nearly as far fetched as you people seem to think.

and if it is. if it’s that unlikely for a 23 year old in AA to maintain his skills into his prime, how the fuck is it possible to predict that fernando martinez or jose tabata will become anything more than melky cabrera v.2008

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 8:31 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

“it doesn’t take great contact skills to hit .300. it doesn’t take great power to slug .500.”

Well,

1. That’s retarded

2. Then why hasnt he been able to do it even in the minors? Seriously, Donald is disgustingly overrated.

“and if it is. if it’s that unlikely for a 23 year old in AA to maintain his skills into his prime, how the fuck is it possible to predict that fernando martinez or jose tabata will become anything more than melky cabrera v.2008”

The thing is, you’re drastically overrating Donald’s skills.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Sep 25, 2008 9:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

you might want to warm up to him now

you know, in preparation for the inevitable huston street trade and all.

lets just do an intellectual exercise using jeff sackman’s MLE calculator:

you asked why he hasn’t been able to hit .300/.400/.500 in the minors, i’m gonna go ahead and say because he hasn’t been lucky enough to play in the california league.

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 9:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

Because you can actually calculate how somebody’s going to do in the majors based on their minor league #’s.

And are you saying that Donald could only OPS .900 if he’s playing in a hitter’s park or division.

Seriously, you’re being ridiculous.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Sep 25, 2008 10:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

i'll go one step further, but just one

in the 2008 eastern league, there are two qualified players to have an OPS higher than jason donald.

in the 2007 FSL, donald didn’t qualify because he split the season between levels, but he did hit .300/.384/.491 in damn near 300 ABs, which would have left just 3 players ahead of him on the list.

i’m not calling him an elite hitter, nor am i calling him an elite prospect, but he is a damn good hitter, and he is a damn good prospect.

check the rankings, by the way. mat gamel is on the 2007 FSL list OPSing .850. gaby sanchez is OPSing .803. lou marson – .780, dan murphy – .768, jose tabata, .763

ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't

by variablesdont on Sep 25, 2008 10:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'm sure a .360+ BABIP with a LD% of 15 helped...just a tad.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Sep 25, 2008 10:43 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

You really need to be suspicious of reported line drive rates from minor leagues

Unless you’ve looked at the average rates across the league, they’re useless. The scorers have wildly different rubrics in different leagues.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 26, 2008 1:55 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed, I've seen a few write ups on that

That said, the BABIP is still very high. I’m too lazy to do the math, but his numbers probably wouldn’t look so strong this year if it was in the .330 range.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Sep 26, 2008 2:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs