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My Top 25 Prospects going into 2009

1. Matt Weiters-Switch hitting catcher with power. What is not to like here?

2. David Price-Ace in the making.

3. Jason Heyward-Anyone who's reasonable ceiling is Vladimir Guerrero deserves a Top 3 spot.

4. Mike Moustakas-Yes, he moved from SS, but at the same time, the bat really came alive. The best HS drafted since Justin Upton.

5. Rick Porcello-Best HS pitcher since Josh Beckett. That is including a lot of guys. Has nearly unlimited ceiling.

6. Cameron Maybin-The only question at this point is whether he will be a .285-20 guy with 30 SB, or a .285-35 guy with the same speed. Picture Hanley Ramirez in CF.

7. Trevor Cahill-Great mix of stuff, command, and poise. Safe bet at this point as well.

8. Josh Vitters-Bounced back from a rough start, and he has one of the nicest righty swings around.

9. Colby Rasmus-CF with power, although he did take a big step back this year. His ceiling is still Grady Sizemore though.

10. Lars Anderson-One dimensional player at this point, but can't ignore the power.

11. Michael Stanton-If anyone is similar to Maybin on this list, it's him.

12. Matt LaPorta-I'm not huge on him, as he will be a DH, but the bat is legit.

13. Austin Jackson-Again, similar to Maybin and Stanton, with less power.

14. Chris Tillman-Complete pitcher with great stuff.

15. Kyle Skipworth-He moves around on my lists, but it's hard to keep someone with that much power at catcher out of the Top 15.

16. Pedro Alvarez-Every year has a sweet swinging college 3B: Gordon/Braun in 05, Longo in 06, LaPorta (Drafted as a 3B) in 07. Alvarez is very similar to all those guys at this point.

17. Jhoulys Chacin-Great pitcher just coming into his own. I would rate him higher, but would like to see if he keeps it up.

18. Derek Holland-Basically the same story as Chacin here. He could jump up my list next year.

19. Fernando Martinez-I'm not huge on him, but the tools are there without a doubt. Is he risky? Yes, but it could pay off.

20. Madison Bumgarner-Can't ignore the year he had, although I doubt he keeps it up at higher levels.

21. Brian Matusz-Not unlike David Price, he could have a huge year next year.

22. Brett Wallace-If Alvarez is Gordon, Wallace is Braun. A beast of a hitter.

23. Martin Perez-The Johan comparison is enough to put him towards the end of this list.

24. Justin Smoak-I love his power. Lars Anderson, part II.

25. Eric Hosmer-Picture Casey Kotchman with a little more power. Similar to Billy Butler as well. Great overall hitter.

2 recs  |  Comment 136 comments

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No McCutchen or Fowler?

‘Cutch is a tools guy coming off a very respectable AAA season, and he’s only 21 years old. I don’t care how low you might be on the guy, he at least belongs with the top 25 prospects in baseball.

My man-crush on Fowler might be shining through some here, but I’m sure I’m not the only one who would say that, besides a couple of names near the top of this list, Fowler has as much promise as any position player in the minors right now.

Would like to hear what made you decide to leave those guys off.

by jseiner on Sep 22, 2008 6:58 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If you notice on my list

It is mostly power guys. I am a sucker for power, because if a player doesn’t show any in the minors, there is a very low chance he shows it in the bigs.

It’s nothing against Fowler or Cutch, who I like, but I just worry if they will hit more than 10-15 HR a year.

Both are in the Top 30 however.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 7:12 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed to an extent

I get what you’re saying, but I’m with Bravesin below me. Guys like ’Cutch and Fowler, guys with good plate discipline, tend to develop power with age. Hanley Ramirez is a good example.

Neither guy is going to be slugging 40+ bombs a year, but ’Cutch’s hands are absolutely fast enough that he could hit 25-30 in his best years, and Fowler could top out around 20. Not too mention, Fowler’s defense is about as good as it gets in center, if I’m not mistaken.

by jseiner on Sep 22, 2008 7:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah i noticed the power fixation

Neither of the top 2 SS prospects are listed? Escobar and Andrus?

by laxtonto on Sep 23, 2008 1:43 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

wrong

Hanley Ramirez didn’t show a lot of pop in the minors and he’s hit over 30 this year.

by Bravesin07 on Sep 22, 2008 7:20 PM EDT reply actions   1 recs

Plus

Hanley didn’t strike out anywhere near as much as Maybin. That average is likely to fall considerably unless he can substantially improve his K rate. Can anyone tell me the last prospect to have such a high K rate in the minors and who managed to cut that down a lot in the majors? My guess is that Hanley is not a good comp given that there are relevant differences. My guess is that he’s a lot closer to being Mike Cameron (with a bit more speed) than Hanley Ramirez.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farnsworth: Start the ship, Leela. Let's just steal the damn radar dish and get back to our own time.
Fry: But- But won't that change history?
Farnsworth: Oh, a lesson in not changing history from Mr. I'm-My-Own-Grandpa! Let's get the hell out of here already! Screw history!

Farnsworth: You mustn't interfere with the past! Don't do anything that affects anything. Unless it turns out you were supposed to do it. In which case, for the love of God don't not do it!
Fry: Got it.
Farnsworth: If for example you were to kill your grandfather, you'd cease to exist.
Fry: (gasps) But existing is basically all I do.

by parrot11 on Sep 23, 2008 12:03 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

re

i find it strange that i keep seeing the mike cameron comp with maybin. look at their numbers in the minors and where they were at the same ages. the only thing they have in common is they are black CFers. cameron never showed to ability to hit for the average that maybin did but maybin hasn’t shown the same plate discipline that cameron has. Cameron is a .250 hitter, but has a ob% of 100 over his BA.

Maybin will hit for a much higher average than cameron, but his ob% will probably be only 40 over his BA

by ScottAZ on Sep 23, 2008 10:52 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybin's OBP

“Maybin will hit for a much higher average than cameron, but his ob% will probably be only 40 over his BA”

I have no clue where you are coming up with this. Everywhere Maybin has played in the minors he has an ob% of 100 over his BA(as you put it).

year-level-location-games-ab’s-avergae-obp-slugging
2006 A-W Michigan 101 games, 385 ab’s, .304/.387/.457
2007 A-Lakeland
83 games, 296 ab’s, .304/.393/.486
2007 R-Tigers- 2 games, 7 ab’s, .571/.667/.571
2007 AA-Erie- 6 games, 20 ab’s .400/.538/1.050
2008 AA-Carolina- 108 390 .277/.375/.456

So even this year in Carolina, he has posted an on base% of .100 over his batting average. So what would lead you to believe he will only be able to post an obp of .40 over his batting average? One thing he has consistantly shown is that he can take a walk.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Sep 23, 2008 11:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

+1

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 23, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think

that Hanley is the exception, NOT the rule. So many more guys hit for power in the minors, and none in the bigs. Guys that didn’t hit for power in the minors have an even worse chance. Like I said, while I would love to have those guys on my team, they just aren’t impact players in my eyes.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 7:30 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

-1

Nate McLouth, Grady Sizemore, Kevin Youkilis, Carlos Beltran (kinda sorta), Tori Hunter, Dustin Pedroia, Jermaine Dye, Mike Cameron…

I’m sure there are more I’m missing, but Hanley is absolutely not the exception.

by jseiner on Sep 22, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I can find so many guys that the opposite is true for, at least so far

Just in the last couple of years: Gordon, Delmon, Butler, Schierholtz, Carlos Gomez (not a lot of power in the minors, but some), Ryan Sweeney, Reid Brignac, Brandon Wood, Casey Kotchman, Dallas McPherson, Aaron Cunnningham, etc. etc. etc.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not sure how that's related

You’re almost making my point for me here, as you’re basically saying that power is pretty much unpredictable.

You’re point is that guys who hit for power in the minors sometimes just can’t translate that. The guys you listed resemble Weiters, LaPorta, Rasmus etc. more than Fowler or McCutchen, so how can it be fair to dismiss the latter because they haven’t developed power yet.

You seem to be saying that power is just unpredictable with the names you listed, but that has almost nothing to do with my assertion that tools guys with good batting eyes often develop power once they’re about 25, and have very strong, well-rounded primes.

Not to mention, a good number of the guys you listed are still pretty young, and haven’t even hit their primes yet, so I’m not sure they’d be great examples for the point you’re making anyway. I get what you’re going for.

by jseiner on Sep 22, 2008 8:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The guys I was listing

Were guys that hit for power in the minors. Those types generally tend to be pure hitting infielders, not toolsy OF like Cutch and Fowler. While power is unpredictable, I just don’t see Cutch or Fowler hitting 20+ HR in the bigs, when they haven’t hit more than 17 and 8 respectively, in the minors.

I agree with your statement that those guys might develop power later on. Gordon, Delmon, and Sweeney all should become good players in the future.

I am going back to the 2005 BA Top 100 list, because most of those guys are either already in the bigs, or have dropped out of prospect status by now.

Here are the guys I found that I would compare to the two you listed. Basically they are toolsy, athletic OF.

Delmon Young: Career high 26 HR.
Lastings Milledge: Career high 28 HR.
Felix Pie: Career high 15 HR.
Ryan Sweeney: Career high 13 HR.

All of those guys hit more HR at their best than Fowler, two of them more than McCutchen. All three have not hit 20 yet in the majors. Will they? Delmon probably will, but the other three, doubtful.

Hopefully you get what I’m trying to say here, I have a feeling it is pretty confusing.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 8:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Milledge

Two things:

First, Milledge’s career high for homers is 15, set in 2004.

Secondly, he most likely will hit 20 homers, sooner rather than later. Last seasons numbers, prorated over an entire season would have been very close to 20 bombs, and that was as a 22 year old. If he can get and stay healthy he’ll likely be an annual 20 homer guy.

Moreover, your overall point is kind of bogus. There are tons of toolsy outfielders who move along faster than their power does

by Fanon on Sep 23, 2008 2:04 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Your not arguing against my point at all

First of all, Young and Milledge weren’t nearly as polished as Fowler or McCutchen at similar ages, especially Fowler, and both Fowler and McCutchen are far superior talent wise than either Pie or Sweeney.

Regardless, none of those guys have played a full MLB season yet. You can’t tell me a kid is never going to hit for power then he’s only 23 and has 100 some odd MLB AB’s.

I’m saying that by the time they’re 25 or 26, there is a good chance that McCutchen and Fowler will both be putting up pretty decent power numbers.

And the only point you were making with that first group of guys was that guys who hit for power in the minors (i.e. almost every hitter on your list) often bust out and fail to hit for that same power in the majors.

by jseiner on Sep 23, 2008 10:20 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I couldn't disagree with you anymore.......

Okay yes Alex Gordon hasn’t hit 30 bombs like we thought he would instantly at the same time he has the same number of hr’s this year 15 as he did last year in about 70 less ab’s Dallas Mcpherson has gotten limited oppurtunities at best and has slugged .460. Ryan Sweeney has never been a prodigious power hitter even in the minors and Nate Schierholtz only has played in 52 games spanning 2 seasons back in 2 years and if they don’t hit for more power u win

by caincecum on Sep 22, 2008 10:35 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't get me wrong

I am a big Gordon guy. He’s on my fantasy team, and to be honest he is probably my favorite player, but come on now, you can’t really think he hasn’t been a disappointment so far?

My point was that all those guys’ power dropped off in the bigs, as it does with nearly every prospect. I don’t really think that can be disputed.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well you're right

that because pitching is significantly better in the majors than in the minors, a lot of hitters see their power numbers decline if they don’t improve; but their batting averages and walk totals drop as well while their strikeouts go up, unless they improve. Why do you think that power numbers drop more than the other statistics?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 23, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Aaron Cunningham has been in the bigs for three weeks

Reid Brignac has played four games.

Isn’t it just a touch early to be claiming that they can’t hit for power in MLB?

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 23, 2008 2:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Why?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 23, 2008 9:39 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Because it's a ludicrously small sample?

I can’t believe you’re seriously asking this question. Maybe I’m misunderstanding.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 23, 2008 8:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh I'm sorry -

I was being sarcastic. That really doesn’t always work so well on computers

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 23, 2008 10:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Tillman over Brett Anderson?

I like Tillman but Anderson is as polished as they come.

Logan Morrison may be a better hitter than all those big boppers and he will develop more power in AA next year

by astroke on Sep 22, 2008 7:32 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

While I do like Anderson...

Tillman just has better pure stuff. While Anderson is a solid pitcher, he doesn’t have the #2 potential that Tillman has. I go off projection more than polish at this point.

I’m not too high on Morrison yet, but I think I will probably like him more later on. He’s like Freddie Freeman, in that they pretty much jumped onto the scene this year. I am taking a “wait and see” approach with both of them.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 7:37 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Matt Dominguez

Since you love the power hitters what about Matt Dominguez. over Kyle Skipworth who I see as a bust so far, only potential. I will take Lucroy over him at this stage (As catchers go) or Carlos Santana.

by astroke on Sep 23, 2008 5:34 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No Snider?

I know he’s been called up to the majors, but he will still be rookie eligible next season, hence still a prospect.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farnsworth: Start the ship, Leela. Let's just steal the damn radar dish and get back to our own time.
Fry: But- But won't that change history?
Farnsworth: Oh, a lesson in not changing history from Mr. I'm-My-Own-Grandpa! Let's get the hell out of here already! Screw history!

Farnsworth: You mustn't interfere with the past! Don't do anything that affects anything. Unless it turns out you were supposed to do it. In which case, for the love of God don't not do it!
Fry: Got it.
Farnsworth: If for example you were to kill your grandfather, you'd cease to exist.
Fry: (gasps) But existing is basically all I do.

by parrot11 on Sep 22, 2008 7:44 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I am assuming he gets the number of ABs required to make him no longer a rookie

However, if he still is eligible, he would rank number 7, after Maybin.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 8:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So you are saying you think he will average at least 13 AB per game until the season ends

by bigboy1234 on Sep 22, 2008 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No

I obviously misread the numbers.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 9:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

You never know, those Jays are notorious for their massive blowouts (note: A Jays fan would understand the joke).

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Farnsworth: Start the ship, Leela. Let's just steal the damn radar dish and get back to our own time.
Fry: But- But won't that change history?
Farnsworth: Oh, a lesson in not changing history from Mr. I'm-My-Own-Grandpa! Let's get the hell out of here already! Screw history!

Farnsworth: You mustn't interfere with the past! Don't do anything that affects anything. Unless it turns out you were supposed to do it. In which case, for the love of God don't not do it!
Fry: Got it.
Farnsworth: If for example you were to kill your grandfather, you'd cease to exist.
Fry: (gasps) But existing is basically all I do.

by parrot11 on Sep 22, 2008 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh..

Moustakas is too high, Vitters is WAY to high and Martin Perez isnt top 25 material at this point. Baseball America said today in a chat that the Johan Santana comp came from nothing other than the fact the Perez looks physically and visually like Johan Santana, not performance wise. He’s good but very young still, not top 25.

Skipworth probably wont be there either, Buster Posey will rank much higher than him and should be in the top 25. Throw Tim Beckham and arguably Wilmer Flores possibly in the top 25 mix.

I do however completely agree with Rick Porcello being ranked as high as you do. Just like you said, best HS pitcher since Josh Beckett with a huge ceiling. Ive seen Porcello in person and he is without question the real deal. Some people were down on the fact that he was pegged as a fireballer but turned out to be a sinkerballer and somehow thought less of him as a prospect. Porcello has ace written all over him, he will be just fine.

by Kazmir2657 on Sep 22, 2008 8:15 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Personally...

I am very high on both Moustakas and Vitters. Have their performances merited a ranking this high? Probably not. But like I said, I’m all about projection, and those guys have it.

I was actually the one that asked the Perez question today, and while I got out of it what you did, I think there was more too it. He didn’t outright deny the comparison, just said it was a little much at this point. I do really like his ceiling.

I’m huge on Skipworth. He is the best HS catcher since Mauer, and his power is so much better than Mauer’s. While he won’t ever hit .350, he should hit 30-40 HR consistently.

I am not big on either Beckham or Flores yet.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 8:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Interesting..

I like Skipworth a lot as well, but saying that he should hit 30-40 homeruns consistantly is a little off. Your basically saying that he should be Mike Piazza, i see Skipworth as hitting for power but certainly not in the 30-40 range. I would take Posey over him in a heartbeat though, hes proven to dominate at a higher level of competition and shown to be a very very good defensive catcher.

As for Vitters and Moustakas i like them as well, Moustakas more than Vitters in my opinon. But to say that your all about projection and then say that you not big on Beckham or Flores. That doesn’t exactly make sense, those two are some of the most projectable guys in all the minors. If you were all about projection than those should be guys you would love?

by Kazmir2657 on Sep 22, 2008 8:38 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I phrased that badly

I did not mean 30-40 for his entire career, but I think he should hit 30-40 for a few years in his prime, sure. People underestimate Skippy defensively, and there is no question that he will stay at catcher. Read what I wrote before about Posey for my more in-depth opinion.

I guess the difference between me liking Vitters and Moustakas so much, and leaving off Flores and Beckham, is I am sucker for power guys, like I said, and I am a sucker for pure hitters. I wouldn’t really consider either Beckham or Flores “pure hitters”, or big power guys.

Not really too much logic to back that up though, sorry.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 8:43 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

even that's a pretty unfair assumption

He’s played like 20 games in the minors, and he didn’t show much of anything there. He’s also only 18. It’d probably be better to wait a bit before projecting that much power out of him; he hasn’t done anything yet to back that opinion up. Maybe he has the potential to, but it’s unfair to assume he’ll fulfill it without having seen him do anything yet.

by boonitez on Sep 23, 2008 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

Also, in the case of Wilmer Flores, he DOES project as both a power guy and a pure hitter. Is the problem just with middle infielders or something?

by Fanon on Sep 23, 2008 2:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

How many catchers hit 35+ homers more than once in their careers?

I think you’re overstating here still, plus given the attrition rates for catcher prospects, I don’t think you can have one listed here just a few games out of high school.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 9:59 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Can you explain why you're so high on Skipworth?

I understand that he is a very good prospect, and certainly you can’t take too much from an 18 year old’s rookie league performance, but it seems awfully difficult to project anything from any 18 year old, let alone a 30-40 HR peak (especially for a catcher), especially one whose admittedly brief playing time in rookie ball didn’t exactly set the world aflame. Even if he will be a terrific hitter, isn’t it early to be quite so high on him? Are there really only 14 prospects you think are stronger than Skipworth?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 23, 2008 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well

It starts with his swing. It is so sweet, and so powerful looking. From what I have read, heard, and seen, 30+ seems very reasonable. That said, if he doesn’t stick at Catcher, his value drops immensely, probably out of the Top 25 altogether. But, as long as he is a Catcher, he remains an elite prospect in my eyes.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 23, 2008 11:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

And you're not concerned

that (granted in only 151 ABs) that rookie ball pitchers made him look silly?

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 24, 2008 11:12 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As a Giants fan

I am obligated to bitch about the lack of Giants prospects on your list. No Posey or Alderson? I think Posey’s way better than Skipworth. He projects to be better than him at maybe everything besides power and his tiny sample size of minors experience this year were also better. How is Skipworth better? And also, no Tim Beckham?

by boonitez on Sep 22, 2008 8:22 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I am also a Giant's fan...

But while I think they have one of the top 3 systems in the minors, no one really stands out to me. I have Alderson, Villalona and Posey all in my Top 35 or so, and here are my explanations as to why they are not higher.

Alderson: I like him, but he didn’t really do anything to push himself into the Top 25 at this point. He could very easily be next year’s Trevor Cahill, but he just doesn’t have one devastating pitch that nearly all the other pitchers on this list have.

Villalona: I am not too high on him to be honest. I really think he will be a bust, and that is more a gut feeling than anything. While I love the power potential, I think he is too big, too slow, too bad defensively. I hate to say it, but we could be looking at a Kyle Blanks (with more power obviously) type player here.

Posey: He does everything well, but nothing stands out. .280-.300 hitter? Yes. 15-22 HR a year? Probably. 12-18 SB a year? Most likely. Looks like Russ Martin numbers, and let’s be honest, Martin does not get the love that Top 25 prospects should get. If his power changes to project him to hit 25-30, I will change my mind on him completely.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 8:33 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

The Blanks comment confuses me

So you say that you skew towards prospects with power, and then go on to diss Villalona with a “Blanks with more power” comparison.

I’d think that Blanks with more power (say, a .600 slg then?) would be an elite prospect by your criteria.

by jibs on Sep 22, 2008 10:44 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No, not really

I am not a Blanks guy by any means, and I do not think he will be a long-term MLB player. I can’t really state it more simply than that.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 10:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

how is it that Villalona is bad defensively?

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Sep 23, 2008 1:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh

people just say that because he’s not… good… you know… defensively.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 1:29 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

oh…is it like…you and your friends…in a synthetic circle, typing ‘+1’ to to each trite announcement made by your bunch?

More seriously: you get a mixed review on his defensive ability from scouts. Strong arm, but a bit errant. but he does move well, and has good hands.. Having seen him myself, I certainly wouldn’t say he is bad; in fact, he may end up being good defensively (though I certainly wouldn’t call him that now).

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Sep 23, 2008 4:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not even a question of being bad defensively

I’ve never heard or seen good things about the guy defensively, but more to the point, he’s going to be way too big to play anywhere but first, much like Jesus Montero.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 9:56 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Not so fast

there is chatter from the giants about moving him back to 3B………no one knows how this is going to end up just yet

by Wheelhouse on Sep 23, 2008 10:10 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I didn't say it isn't worth a try

But the kid could really be David Ortiz’s size before it’s all said and done.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh yeah

that always happens. Guys move BACK to 3B.

Im not saying its impossible but it would be a good move to take a second mortgage out to lay money against it. Its extremely rare.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

So a catcher that projects to have 20 homers a year

in the majors almost as a likelihood shouldn’t crack the top 25? Then what’s Skipworth on the list for? Can you really expect much more than that from him than Posey? But yeah, that’s really my only major complaint. AnVil still hasn’t really set himself out as a major prospect. He’s given very hopeful numbers for his age, but he still has yet to really break out. Until then, I wouldn’t expect him anywhere close to a top 25. And Alderson was really good this year, but I agree there’s plenty of better prospects. I’d expect him to be at least really close to top 25, though. And another thing, Fernando Martinez? Really? He’s kind of in the same boat as Villalona; young with plenty of potential, but still hasn’t really broken out yet. I don’t think he warrants a top 25 ranking yet.

by boonitez on Sep 23, 2008 1:38 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I sort of agree...

basically you convinced me that Skipworth probably shouldnt be on this list, either… In all seriousness, Im not a Posey fan… I think he is terribly overrated.

Also, “AnVil” is a really cool nickname.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 1:46 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like how you think that a player that you have most likley not seen in an MiLB game is over or underrated in any way.

You don’t know. All you have to go on is his college numbers and his numbers from the Cape. Those numbers say he is good. Gut feelings are worth nothing.

I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.

by camwoody on Sep 23, 2008 2:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Of course, Im not just going on a gut feeling...

I just dont see Posey as that great a talent. I dont think he’s that good at any one thing. He had one good year in college. Was this a real jump? We shall see. His tools dont really impress me, either. I thought whoever drafted him was going to be disappointed before the draft and Im sticking by my initial analysis. Lets revisit this in a year when we have more data to go on.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 2:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

First off...

I don’t remember pawning off gut feelings as analysis. Secondly let’s be accurate here. Posey did not have one good year in college.

2006- .346avg 58r 85h 14 2b 3 3b 4hr 48rbi .467slg. 38bb 45k .433obp
2007- .382 66 94 21 2 3 65 .520 32 27 .453

While these are not earth shattering numbers they might certainly fall under the good category.
Now, as for the “good” year you were talking about well, here it is:

2008 .463avg. 89r 119h 21 2b 4 3b 26hr 93 rbi .879slg 57bb 29k .566obp

That is not a good year. That is a historic year. Teixeira, who was widely considered to be one of the best hitting prospects to come out of college in a long time, had similar numbers. He had nearly ten more homeruns but a lower avg. and a lower ops. Oh, and Posey is a catcher.

I am sorry but I just don’t see any real information other than gut instinct that points to him not being a great baseball player. Now I am not saying that he will be good in the majors. I leave that to the scouts, a group of which I am not a part of and which I am pretty sure you are not a part of either. Here is what they say:

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/draft/news/2008/266273.html
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/events/draft_report/y2008/index.jsp?mc=posey
http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18727&draftyear=2008#

I just don’t see any evidence to support your gut feeling.

I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.

by camwoody on Sep 23, 2008 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I never said he wouldnt be "good" in the majors

I said he was “terribly overrated” and I stand by that – and frankly, I think all the catchers in this first round were overrated. I think Posey has a very good shot to be a league average catcher with some up years and down years. I think a lot of people, particularly on this sight, have much higher aspirations for him and I dont believe those are realistic.

Youre also strongly overstating Posey’s college performance. His 2008 season is no way as historical as youre making it seem. Even if it was, the previous college performance is reason to give any reasonable, non-biased person pause.

Youre taking an optimistic view of every piece of evidence. Im not saying that’s not a valid way to look at things but you have to understand that its no less valid than mine.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 3:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I have to say, too

that you seem to be taking personal offense and acting like I said “Posey will be a bust” when that is not at all what I ever said or am saying now.

1st round catchers just dont work out all that often, and because Posey was arguably the best offensive and defensive catcher in college people are expecting a superstar… that’s not going to happen. He’s a very good defender, but I just dont think we can expect him to be that much of a hitter. Joe Mauer lite-lite.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 3:25 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You still have not supported any of your argument with anything but gut feeling.

Do you realize though that when you say things like, “terribly overrated” or “people are expecting a superstar… that’s not going to happen” or " I just don’t think we can expect him to be that much of a hitter", and don’t support them with evidence you sound silly. If you were a scout or at the very least could cite scouts that have said this then I may respect you opinion. You can’t or refuse to use evidence so you are going with a purely gut feeling which goes against a consensus that is built on statistics and scouting.

As for first round catchers not working out: I counted 17 total since 2000 (not counting this year). Seven are either in the bigs or top prospects. Matt Wieters, Jeff Clement, JP Arencibia, Hank Conger, Jarred Saltalamachia, Joe Mauer, and Jeff Mathis. That is 41% which I don’t think is any lower than any other position player selected in the 1st round. So I don’t know what decade you are looking at.

As for Posey’s 2008 year: Okay maybe it was not historic but since 2002 only one ACC player has had a higher single season AVG. (Khalil Green) and no one has had a higher OPS. It is also important to remember that this is not a dud conference. Since 2002 the ACC has produced the aforementioned Khalil Green, Stephen Drew, Ricky Weeks, Chris Iannetta, Mark Reynolds, Ryan Braun, Matt Wieters, Ryan Zimmerman, Yonder Alonso, Jemile Weeks, Allan Dykstra etc.

As for his 2006 and 2007 seasons being the real Posey and his 2008 being an outlier: Posey was 19th in the ACC in AVG. in 2006, 4th in 2007, and 1st in 2008. Look up the numbers. He was not terrible until 2008. In fact he was good and continued to get better.

Again everything above is purely factual. No gut instincts. No clairvoyance. Facts.

As for his tools I will defer to the scouts, all of whom seem to be pretty impressed. Find me some that think he won’t hit.

I am not taking any offense personal or otherwise btw.

I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.

by camwoody on Sep 23, 2008 5:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

No one is arguing the facts

Youre drawing conclusions from these facts that I disagree with – and your conclusions are nothing but your “gut instincts” – you just refuse to admit it.

Youre drawing conclusions and making assumptions that IMHO do not follow the facts.

I still disagree that his lesser two college seasons were anything great. He hit for little power in those years – that’s what immediately strikes you when you look at it. That is troublesome to me and reflects poorly on his ability to hit in the majors as well as draws doubt on whether his final college season was a real leap forward or an outlier – Im sure its a little of both and Im quite sure neither of us knows how much of each portion it is.

You see those first two years and say Posey “was good and continued to get better.” This is not the only way to view this data and until you admit that there’s really no point discussing this. You keep on pointing to the same facts – again, no one is questioning the facts, but two reasonable people can look at the same facts and draw different conclusions. There’s no reason to look at the facts and look at the conclusions I drew and say “well, that can only be gut instinct!” “The only informed/correct opinion is mine-no one could possibly look at this data and draw a different conclusion!”

Only time will tell which of us is right. There is no “correct” interpretation of this and you really need to stop acting like there is, because it does border on insulting when you dismiss any contrarian point of view as “gut instinct” simply because it isnt the conclusion you would reach.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

You are saying that I am going with gut instincts because I said his 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons were good?

What in those seasons seems alarming to you? You said lack of power but I assume that you understand that power does not only include hrs. I also assume that you are smarter than falling into the “power = good player, no power = bad player” way of thinking.

Here lets look at it this way.
2006- .900 OPS
2007- .973 OPS

Granted you can’t look at only one stat and assume a player’s worth but do those look like bad years to you?

Okay, I am not trying to say that Buster Posey is going to be the best player in the league or that you are stupid. You just say he is overrated and you won’t cite any information that proves this besides saying that his 2008 is an outlier. Neither of us know for sure but I can cite examples that help my case and you cannot.

I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.

by camwoody on Sep 23, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Gee

It kind of looks like I cited examples, like the ones you discuss in your post.

Youre just throwing them out because they dont fit your model. So because they dont support your conclusion they dont matter. This is the same crap you keep pulling.

Lets look at his SLG instead of his OPS since that would prove power more than OPS, as opposed to your cherry picking.

06: .467
07: .520
08: .870

OUTLIER

Why did you cite OPS instead of SLG anyway? Was it because you didnt find the answer you wanted when you looked? Unbelievable…

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 6:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude chill out a bit.

I cited OPS because it paints a better picture of a player’s overall value than SLG does. It was not meant to prove my power idea. Yeah Posey never hit for exceptional power until his junior year. Okay. Does that mean he was not a good player?

Also, I reread your post because I thought that maybe I had skipped over some factual evidence that you had presented. The only bit I found was:

 “He hit for little power in those years – that’s what immediately strikes you when you look at it. That is troublesome to me and reflects poorly on his ability to hit in the majors as well as draws doubt on whether his final college season was a real leap forward or an outlier – Im sure its a little of both and Im quite sure neither of us knows how much of each portion it is.”

So you supported you thesis that Posey is terribly overrated with his lack of power numbers his first two seasons. Excuse me if I am not blown away by your argument. How is it that lack of HR power equates to an inability to hit in the bigs? Enlighten me.

I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.

by camwoody on Sep 23, 2008 6:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Here I stumbled upon these hitting averages for the top 12 conferences in College Baseball.

   AVG OBP SLG
  .295 .377 .426

Compare those with Posey’s 2006 and 2007 numbers. He was far and away better than the average. Most would look at Posey’s numbers from before his “outlier” 2008 year and say “hey this guy looks like a good player in a tough conference. Oh he is a catcher? Even better.”

I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.

by camwoody on Sep 23, 2008 7:20 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Oh

and agree totally on FMart. I am so sick of hearing about this guy. Wake me up when he actually does something impressive please.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 1:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fernando

I’m honestly getting a little impatient with Martinez (come on, where’s that 30+ homerun power people keep talking about) but it kind of annoys me when people start getting fashionably down on Fernando yet rave about Austin Jackson when Fernando hit as well as Austin did at AA. Sure, Austin has a bit more speed and probably will stick in CF…. but at the same time, Fernando is two years YOUNGER than Austin Jackson.

Summary: it’s not that I don’t disagree that Fernando is feel a little disappointing. It’s that amateur scouting is so inconsistent.

by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 23, 2008 10:16 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

He's still a very good prospect

dont get me wrong… but the argument for him is based mostly on performance to ARL and scouting – not on actual performance. B/c of that he just cant make most top prospect lists…

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 3:21 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

But see....

That’s my point. His numbers are as good as Jackson’s in the same. So, it’s NOT just ARL and scouting.

by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 23, 2008 3:56 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I would say

that Jackson clearly falls in the same category as FMart… he’s also mostly scouting and ARL.I think youre right that they are very similar, and I might even take FMart first.

If Jackson is a CFer he definitely deserves a good boost over FMart for that – BUT I dont think its clear at this point where either guy ends up.

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Jackson

jackson is a true CF, he wont be moving anytime soon

by skiinginNJ on Sep 24, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Feliz

Was close, but I’m not sold on his secondary stuff yet. Next year is big for him.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Perez and Holland

both above Feliz is silly right now. Perez might get close to the top 100, but nowhere near top 25 yet.

In essentials, unity. In non-essentials, liberty. In all things, love.

by t ball on Sep 23, 2008 12:08 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I think Perez might even make the top 100

but you’re right that he has no business being this high

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 23, 2008 12:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Just curious

When did you see him pitch. Not trying to be sarcastic just wondering if it was earlier or later in the season.

by groundingout on Sep 23, 2008 12:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Feliz will be 20/21 next year. It may be big in that he could get real close to the major leagues or reach them, but generally when someone says “next year will be big for him” it’s because the player has a lot to lose. Feliz won’t as long as he stays healthy and doesn’t regress. His secondary stuff also came along quite a ways, fwiw.

by Brett Perryman on Sep 25, 2008 8:52 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Lars
Lars Anderson-One dimensional player at this point, but can’t ignore the power.

Im confused… how is Lars “one dimensional?” He hits for average and walks a ton. His power potential is massive, although he hasnt quite tapped it all yet… he’s a decent defender…

What’s the “one dimension?”

by alskor on Sep 22, 2008 10:48 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

I don't see him hitting for that high of an average at the big league level

So power is his only “one dimension” at this point. From reports that I heard, and games that I have watched, his defense is below average, and he may turn into a DH.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 11:01 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

???
I don’t see him hitting for that high of an average at the big league level

What makes you think this? If anything, Id say we could be relatively certain that he would hit for AVG in the majors given his contact skills and plate discipline. You could make a better case that he might not hit for significant power at the MLB level… the basis for that is the scouting reports… he really hasnt hit a tremendous amount of HRs so far in his MiLB career.

From reports that I heard, and games that I have watched, his defense is below average

Can you link anything on this? B/c this is the opposite of everything Ive ever heard.

He’s not supposed to be a spectacular fielder or anything, but nowhere have I heard anyone question whether he can stay at 1B…

by alskor on Sep 23, 2008 12:23 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

In your comments about Alvarez, you say LaPorta was drafted as a 3B. Which brings up the question, do you know what you are talking about?

Then your comment by Wallace, shouldn’t you have Wallace ahead of Alvarez then if you think Alvarez=Gordon and Wallace=Braun, seeing how Braun is way better than Gordon.

by bigboy1234 on Sep 22, 2008 10:53 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Actually...

LaPorta was drafted without a true postion. There were talks of him playing 3B, 1B, OF, and even Catcher. I used 3B to prove my point that there are always pure-hitting college prospects, generally at 3B. I do know what I am talking about, and that seems like nitpicking to call me out on that.

As with Wallace vs. Alvarez, I think you would have a very hard time finding people who would choose Wallace over Alvarez, as you would have after the 2005 Draft. I was referring to the fact that Gordon was drafted higher than Braun, as Alvarez was over Gordon.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 11:04 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

There were never any talks about him playing 3B. He had never played 3B at Florida and still hasn’t played 3B as a professional.

And I would agree with you, everyone would choose Alvarez over Wallace, but based on your comps I would think you like like Wallace a lot more.

by bigboy1234 on Sep 22, 2008 11:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes there were

talks of him playing 3B. After the Brewers drafted him, they moved Braun to the OF, and the most logical thinking was that LaPorta was to play 3B. Obviously, that didn’t happen, but it was rumored for sure.

Like I said, I was talking Alvarez=Gordon and Wallace=Braun as far as directly after the 05 Draft, not 3 years later when it is clear that Braun is putting up far superior numbers. I am not comparing Wallace to Braun as a player, though that isn’t too far off.

I wouldn’t be too surprised if Gordon, Braun, Alvarez, and Wallace all end up as elite 3B in the show in 3-7 years.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 22, 2008 11:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

LaPorta was playing LF for the Brewers in the minors while Braun played 3B for the Brewers. They moved Braun off 3B because he had a historic bad defensive season there not because of LaPorta. There was never any chance at all of LaPorta playing 3B. Can you link me to one reputable source that says either LaPorta can play 3B or the Brewers thought of putting him there?

by bigboy1234 on Sep 22, 2008 11:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

maybe you're thinking of beau mills

Accidentally not thedude925 anymore. I do hate this new name.

by wildthang on Sep 23, 2008 4:00 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That sounds right

A lot of people have laughed at the idea/sight of LaPorta playing the outfield from day one. I’ve never heard anyone even begin to claim that he could play third. Mills was drafted as a 3B with the understanding that he was being drafted for his bat and wasn’t a very strong glove.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 9:44 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

DerekHollandBall.com

Sickels should just change the site name already. It’s getting ridiculous.

Most of the list is ridiculous. Porcello’s strikeout rate is way, way too low to have him ranked fifth.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 1:49 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

God, I hope so

Of course, he is only 18 (or is he 19 now?) and will probably add more velocity. But I think the big question is how his secondary stuff develops. If he turns his slider into a strikeout pitch and continues drawing GB’s, he’s going to be better than Verlander.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 23, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Come on...

How many Minor League lefties can touch 97? He is better than McGee was last year, and most people had him in their top 10-15. Like other people have told you, Porcello is legit, and you will take that back next year.

What else is ridiculous?

by InclineInvestments on Sep 23, 2008 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

OK

Maybe you should read my point about high school draft picks who went on to succeed. If he’s got a good 97 mph fastball, he should be able to strike out 19 and 20-year olds with more regularity.

What else is ridiculous? How about putting Perez in there based on a second-hand Santana comp. You can’t use the old “I’ve seen him so I know” defense with one guy, and then go with hyperbolic hearsay to put a 17-year old with no track record in your top 25. I’ve also yet to hear a good rationale from people who have Holland ahead of Bumgarner. Everyone’s just too scared of having that guy Dewey yell at them some more. But I don’t type in DerekHollandBall.com when I come to this site.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 4:42 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well...

I was actually talking about Holland’s fastball, not Porcello’s, but I’ll talk about Porcello here too. Like I said, if you have seen him pitch, you would know that he is for real. Like Soccerman said, his pitches were limited this year. He will be the best pitching prospect in all of baseball one year from now.

I’ll take another lefty (talking about Perez now) that has a Plus fastball, as well as a second Plus pitch that is called the best Curve in the Ranger’s system. His changeup should also become a third Plus pitch.

As far as Holland goes, he has three pitches that should become Plus sooner than later. His fastball is one of the best in the minors, and he has a projectable build. I have no idea who Dewey is.

Holland vs. Bumgarner….Bumgarner has one pitch. One. While it’s a great pitch, unless he can develop at least one more, he is going to get lit up at higher levels. That’s all there is to it. No one can deny the year he had, but it will not repeat unless he finds some other pitches to work with.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 23, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Wait...

So Porcello gets the benefit of the doubt for pitches we don’t actually get to see, while Bumgarner gets punished for racking up huge strikeout totals and really low walk and home run rates, because he primarily works off one pitch. And he’s almost three years younger than Holland.

Also, why is it not at least a small red flag that Porcello isn’t allowed to use his breaking pitch?

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not really sure what to say to that

Other than you will see next year with Porcello. That’s really all there is to it.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 23, 2008 6:26 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Big difference

You’re really comparing apples to oranges here. Bumgarner’s knock is lack of secondary stuff. Not because they won’t let him throw it, because it just isn’t there.

Pocello has a short leash leash, not a lack of stuff. It’s an organzational way of doing things, not a cause to raise a red flag. Scouts are still quite confident he’ll be fine, if not infuggincredible as he moves through the minors. They’re not as willng to give Bumgarner that nod.

by slurve on Sep 23, 2008 6:30 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Well then

I gave my two cents on these guys. I still like Porcello, and I hope you’re right about him, because great pitchers are fun to watch. But for now, I’ll take the guy who profiles like successful 1st round picks out of high school before him.

Anyway, I failed to notice before that your original posting made no mention of actually being interested in other people’s thoughts, and it’s clear that you aren’t, so I’m not going to bother anymore. If you had ever read this site before yesterday, you would understand why the Holland stuff gets to be a bit much. Some people on this site think more highly of him than his own mom probably does.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 6:54 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's all good

I am always willing to hear people’s thoughts. I don’t take anything said here personally, and it’s all just good discussion to me.

I had no idea about the Holland thing, but I think with his ceiling, he deserves to be Top 20.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 23, 2008 7:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

May I impose?

Perhaps someone has already mentioned this, but I feel Buster Posey belongs on this list. I actually rate him ahead of Madison Bumgarner, and I could see Mad Bum being named the top southpaw prospect never to have played in the major leagues.

I am a Rick Porcello fan, so I’m interested in Soccer Man’s thoughts on him — as well as AAP’s. Rick’s strikeout rate WAS low — but is it true that he wasn’t using his best pitch, the curve?

by sharksrog on Sep 23, 2008 5:38 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yep

As far as I know, the Tigers had him focus on his slider. It would be wonderful if it turned into a plus pitch, and it apparently has the potential.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 23, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

They constricted his uses of pitches, but they will be turning him lose next yea.....

…or so I hear.

Look at his pitches: http://rotoexperts.com/content/view/294/108/

He probably has the best arsenal of any pitcher left in the minors.

by soccerman0 on Sep 23, 2008 3:00 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I've seen that

And it’s impressive. I really hope that slider develops well…

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 23, 2008 11:45 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Thoughts on Porcello

First of all, I’m not completely dismissing him as a prospect. I just think that people who continue to rank him among the very elite prospects in the game despite his performance so far are leaning too hard on his pedigree. When he came out of high school, he was compared to guys like Josh Beckett. But if you look at the last ten drafts or so, and identify high school pitchers picked in the first round who went on to be front of the rotation starters, they all had much higher strikeout rates in the low minors. Guys like Sabathia, Beckett, Greinke, Wainwright, Hamels, Bonderman, Kazmir, Hamels, Cain, all topped 8 k/9 in A-ball, and many of them were in double digits. The same is true of ones who have arrived to the majors as top prospects like Billingsley, Hughes, and Kershaw. If Porcello is going to be talked about like he’s the next in that line, I’d like to see him have the sort of strikeout rate that all of them had at the same age. Bumgarner has that. Porcello doesn’t. The jury is still out, but I don’t think he can be ranked so high right now.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Legitimate concerns

For me, the fact that he can’t use his curve kind of outweighs some of the K concerns, and I’m in love with his GB rate. He’s top 25 material, but probably not top 10 if you want results.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 23, 2008 12:59 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed

The GB rate and pedigree put him somewhere in the rankings. But I’ll put it this way: If Porcello were putting up Bumgarner’s numbers, people would be putting him first or second on their prospect lists.

by aap212 on Sep 23, 2008 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yes

But if Porcello were putting up Bumgarner’s numbers, he would probably have not only an excellent fastball and control but also very strong secondary stuff. Even speaking as somebody who is a big backer of Bumgarner, that means he would be significantly further along.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 24, 2008 11:17 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'd nix Austin and Perez

And probably a few more on the list, but those 2 standout. Smoak, Alvarez, Hosmer, matusz haven’t done much yet in pro ball, but if you are going to include them, I imagine I’d prefer Posey. But everyone will have their own lists.

I wish more of the prospects on my fantasy team made the list, I guess. I got 3. Hosmer, Chacin and Holland. Also have Angel Salome, Logan Morrison, Wilmer Flores, Michael Taylor and Aaron Cunnigham, Neftali Feliz, Tommy Hanson and Tim Alderson.

by wobatus on Sep 23, 2008 11:16 AM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Some list...

This should be re-named to “Your favorite 25 prospects” because there is very little analysis to support any of these rankings.

“So power is his only "one dimension" at this point. From reports that I heard, and games that I have watched, his defense is below average, and he may turn into a DH.”

Where’d you hear that? Lars is about as far from GG defense as he is Ryan Braun defense.

by Kenan and Kel on Sep 23, 2008 12:49 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Not really...

I have lots of analysis to support my rankings. Did I list it all out? No way, that would have taken forever and made for way too long of a post.

I have heard that from more than one source. Your last sentence makes absolutely no sense, and sounds like something Tim McCarver might say.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 23, 2008 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Ummm...

Not to disagree with your broader point, but what exactly does this mean? “Lars is about as far from GG defense as he is Ryan Braun defense.” From the context, it sounds like you’re saying he’s a relatively good defensive player, but I’m really not sure

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 24, 2008 11:15 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

As far as Porcello goes...

If you guys have seen him throw, you would know that he must be a Top 5 prospect. That’s all I can really say about it at this point, but he will be DOMINATING soon enough.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 23, 2008 4:29 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

But he's not now

Look, I understand your arguments about ceiling, and it’s definitely something we have to consider with a player so young. But the numbers simply aren’t there this season. That means that most of us can’t, in good conscience, put him in the top 5 or even the top 10 (especially if you’re obsessed with the numbers like I am).

by demondeaconsbaseball on Sep 23, 2008 11:47 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

numbers

ERA of 2.66
WHIP of 1.19
65% GB rate
2.48 GO/AO rate
6.3% BB/PA rate
.244 AVG against

so when you say “the numbers simply aren’t there this season” you really mean one number – K’s……..i think that’s a pretty close minded method of evaluating prospects………his numbers as a whole look GREAT in 2008, especially considering most kids his age/experience would spend the year at Low A…………and i think his numbers will look even better when his “ridiculously important” K rate improves next year if he gets his best pitch back

by Wheelhouse on Sep 24, 2008 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

K rate

Again, look at the list I posted here earlier. I’m open to opposition, but my basic premise is that high school pitchers taken in the first round who go on to succeed in the majors have very high k rates in the low minors. Going back ten years, I can’t find one who didn’t. I limited it to first round picks, both to try to incorporate pedigree in some way and to make it a manageable sample size. And again, the way people are talking about Porcello, they have to be comparing him to the Sabathia/Beckett/Hamels/Kazmir caliber of pitcher.

by aap212 on Sep 24, 2008 11:57 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

question

how many of those guys weren’t allowed to use their best pitch in their first pro season AND started a level above where there peers started?

to say a guy won’t be good because he didn’t strike out a lot of guys in his first pro season and to ignore all other information is a bit silly to me……..i’d rather evaluate a player based on all information, not just one number

by Wheelhouse on Sep 24, 2008 12:57 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude

I’m talking about keeping him out of the top five, not dismissing him as a prospect entirely. And the fact is, we don’t have all the information him, because we haven’t seen his breaking pitch in his first full year. That’s a reason to be tentative.

by aap212 on Sep 24, 2008 1:15 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's because

Ks correlate the best to success

by alskor on Sep 24, 2008 11:48 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Fair enough

But like you said, I am all about ceiling and projection. I just don’t put all that much stock into minor league stats to be honest.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 23, 2008 11:56 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

If you disagree with someone and have no articulable reason why, it is generally better to leave the thread hanging than to post repeatedly saying “I disagree but have no reason why.”

The latter is both infuriating and a waste of people’s time. There’s no argument with “I just think so.” It’s a nonlogical position.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 24, 2008 1:13 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

camwoody, didn’t you know consistency doesn’t apply in the internet!

Adoptive Parent of Francisco Peguero. He can throw, he can run, he can hit(fastballs), and he's Dominican. What else do you need to know?

by haverecords on Sep 24, 2008 2:45 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

If...

Villalona was given an order to do something like Joey Votto was a few years ago – not swinging at the first pitch – you may have a legitimate arguement here. That wasn’t the case, where for Porcello that is very much the case. Taking away his curveball is akin to saying “don’t swing at the best pitches to hit” to a batter. Villalona has that high ceiling still, but given the circumstances between him and Porcello, he doesn’t look like near as safe of a bet to get to it.

I’m willing to bet 99% of the people so down on Porcello a.) don’t know he was not allowed to throw one of his best pitches and/or b.) have never actually seen him pitch.

by slurve on Sep 24, 2008 11:07 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The argument is not whether Porcello deserves his spot the argument is whether it is hypocritical to say you value ceiling and projection and then say Villalona doesn't belong on that list.

Put Porcello on that list. I don’t care. However, if you are going to defend your ranking him ahead of more accomplished players (statistically) by saying that he has an unlimited ceiling or he has tremendous upside then you can’t in the same breath marginalize Villalona because his stats don’t look good enough. Villalona’s ceiling is .300 40hr. If it is just pure preference fine, make it your 25 favorite prospects but don’t hide behind the high upside/ ceiling rational.

As for Porcello, he may not be able to use his curveball but I would counter that with the fact that he has played organized baseball for probably 10 years while Villalona has played it for probably 2-3. Hitting bp and taking grounders at a Dominican baseball academy is a lot different than playing little league and high school ball. Not that it makes Villalona a better prospect than Porcello, just saying.

I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.

by camwoody on Sep 24, 2008 7:27 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eh...

still aint buying it. The arguement from my perspective is the chances that both propsects have of realizing thier ceiling. Porcello has a sky is the limit ceiling as does Villalona. The difference between the 2 is that Porcello’s chances of reaching his ceiling is greater. If anything, that last paragraph of yours hurts the arguement for Villalona. His late start into baseball hurts his chances of actually developing his full potential. Not to say he can’t reach it, just that it doesn’t do him any favors, where as for someone like Porcello, baseball has become second nature at this point – he just needs to continue to develop.

by slurve on Sep 24, 2008 11:03 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

?

I don’t see a rational reason in there for thinking Porcello has a higher probability of reaching his ceiling. I think his ceiling may be a bit higher, actually, but any pitcher has a lower probability most of the time, let alone one with suspicious k rates.

by aap212 on Sep 24, 2008 11:19 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

The K rates

alrealdy went over that…

by slurve on Sep 25, 2008 1:11 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Sort of

Not to the degree that you can call a 19-year old pitcher with weak k rates the guy much more likely to reach his potential. This “second nature” stuff doesn’t sound like a point of any substance. If you’re going to argue that Porcello’s years and years of baseball have an effect on him, wouldn’t it be that he’s much closer to a finished product than most players his age, that he’s already done more of his developing? With Villalona, his lack of baseball experience only makes it more impressive that he’s shown real in-game power playing full season ball while the age of a high school senior.

by aap212 on Sep 25, 2008 4:14 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's called scouting

the ONLY thing working against Porcello is his k-rate – which I’m fine with passing off due to how he was handled – there’s a reason it was what it was. I was also fine giving Joey Votto a pass due to how he was handled a few years back and that looks like it has worked out just fine. Camwoody was trying to say that the number of years / level of competion to this point and that somehow Villalona having less experience was somehow a sign that favored him. Just the opposite IMO.

Porcello is much closer to a finished product than others his age – and it’s not even close with very, very few exceptions – he’s certainly closer to being a finished product than Villalona is at this point – largely due to having more experience. There are more signs that Porcello will come closer to reaching his potential at this point than Villalona. I love Villalona, but he’s a real wildcard at this point. Scouts and BA will agree as you will see when prospect lists start coming out this spring – the latest Project Prospect has Porcello at #6 and Villalona isn’t even am honorable mention. I expect to see Porcello in the top 5-10 on BA’s list, while I expect to see Villalona closer to 30, possibly lower.

by slurve on Sep 25, 2008 7:47 AM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Dude...

You want to get into this argument about which prospect is better. I don’t care. Porcello is better. He is the best pitching prospect since the invention of pitching prospects. He can strike a batter out with one pitch. Again, I don’t care. I am saying that if the rational for this prospect list is going to be upside, ceiling, power, and projectability Villalona deserves a spot.

Have Porcello and his future 27k/9 ceiling at number one. Just don’t short change Villalona when he meets all the supposed criteria to be on this list.

I mean look:
“It is mostly power guys. I am a sucker for power, because if a player doesn’t show any in the minors, there is a very low chance he shows it in the bigs.”
 “I am all about ceiling and projection. I just don’t put all that much stock into minor league stats to be honest”
Both quotes from Inclineinvestments

Slurve- I know you did not make the list but do these two quotes sound like a particular player to you?

I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.

by camwoody on Sep 25, 2008 12:08 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

Point taken

I guess I got a little carried away thinking people were saying he deserves to be ranked as highly, not just plain making the list.

by slurve on Sep 25, 2008 5:09 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

catchers

the position itself in the minors is a dicey proposition….so many guys are drafted there and move away because their teams want to preserve their knees, or they’re not quick enough defensively to play the position at a major league level, or a whole sort of reasons….so often, much like shortstops, the best prospects at the position are either overrated as the next coming of johnny bench or underrated because it’s assumed their value will decrease when they move off the position….

i’m not saying either side is right….but it takes a lot of review on a catching prospect for me to bite, so i probably fall more on the underrating sort, but once i buy into a guy, it’s hard for me to give up that he’ll be solid….one example on both sides for me would include J.R. Towles on the bad side (i think i had him on every one of my fantasy teams this year…not that he’s a lost cause already, but nowhere near where he was a few months ago) and two that have proven me right have been jesus flores and taylor teagarden so far….i would say, though, that outside of wieters, you’re not exactly looking at can’t miss guys YET….i hadn’t bought into any of the above guys until they did something in full-season ball….i’ll be waiting to see how guys like posey and skipworth respond…..

Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.

by biggentleben on Sep 24, 2008 12:52 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

incline

didn’t you say that you liked Heyward over Wieters on fcb?

by Vitters4Life on Sep 24, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

incline

didnt you say you liked heyward over wieters on fcb?

by Vitters4Life on Sep 24, 2008 1:35 PM EDT reply actions   0 recs

Yup

But changed my mind after talking to some people. I still think it’s close.

by InclineInvestments on Sep 24, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up reply actions   0 recs

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