Who is the best centerfield prospect in baseball? My sweet 16
Please find a list below of my top 16 centerfield prospects. For the purpose of this exercise I have left out 08' draftees (which you can feel free to opine as to where they should rank on this list) as well as players that look to have graduated to the bigs seemingly to stay.
Also, bear in mind that my rankings are based solely on fantasy value where I use the following categories: OPS, HR, SB, RBI, R
As disappointing as the overall talent was for the corner outfield prospects list this more than makes up for it. Obviously, not everyone will stay at center but this a nice crop of talent nonetheless. If I've left anyone off the list whether by mistake or otherwise I apologize. Please feel free to let me know.
Colby Rasmus - St. Louis (21/22 yrs old) - .251/.346/.396 for AAA memphis - colby had a very disappointing season to say the least especially at the beginning of the year. he also missed quite a bit of time due to injury. having said that, i still believe he's the best of the bunch given his power/speed combo. colby still maintained very good pd with a 49/72 bb/k ratio along w/ 11 homers & 15 of 18 stolen bases. i firmly believe this is a mere bump in the road.
Cameron Maybin - Florida (21 yrs old) - .277/.375/.456 for AA carolina - currently playing in florida w/ the marlins - cameron is having a very solid season as a 21 yr old in AA. cam has posted a respectable 60/124 bb/k ratio with decent power production as evidenced by his 13 long balls. cam also possesses a nice speed aspect to his game with 21 steals in 28 tries. overall, tremendous ceiling!
Andrew McCutchen - Pittsburgh (21 yrs old) - .283/.372/.398 for AAA indianapolis - andrew had a very good year in indy at age 21 while boasting terrific pd as evidenced by a 68/87 bb/k ratio. andrew also had 9 homers on the season to go along with 34 swipes in 53 attempts. as andrew matures i certainly expect his base stealing % as well as his power numbers to improve markedly. looking into my crystal ball i see 20 homers & 40 steals in his future. yet another player with a full bucket of tools.
Dexter Fowler - Colorado (21 yrs old) - .335/.431/.515 for AA tulsa - currently having a cup of coffee in the bigs - dexter really exploded this yr in AA as evidenced by a high batting avg. to go with terrific plate discipline for a 21 yr. old., 65/89 bb/k ratio. dexter slugged 9 homers and at 6'4", 175/lbs there's certainly room for added power. dexter also boasts outstanding speed with 20 steals in 28 attempts. this tool bucket is chock full!
Gregory Halman - Seattle (20 yrs old) - .272/.326/.528 total minors - greg finished the year in AA playing for west tennessee. wow, where the hell did this guy come from. you want power? how about 29 homers. you want speed? how about 31 of 38 bags swiped. you want good plate discipline? well, i'm afraid that's where the love story ends. just 32 walks and a whopping 142 k's. now, the good news is he's very young age relative to league so their's plenty of time to improve but he's got a lot of improving to do. gotta love the tools though!
Daryl Jones - St. Louis (21 yrs old) - .316/.407/.483 total minors - daryl finished the year with AA springfield and had quite a year while bursting onto the prospect scene. daryl boasts quite the power/speed combo as evidenced by his 13 jacks to go along with 24 steals in 30 attempts. he certainly could improve in the pd dept. as evidenced by his 55/97 bb/k ratio but that's a tad nitpicky as most young players need to work on this. daryl is yet another centerfielder who could possibly reach the 20/20 plateau at the major league level.
Desmond Jennings - Tampa Bay (21 yrs old) - .259/.360/.412 for class A+ vero beach - desmond had a hoorible season getting off to a slow start and then getting injured shortly thereafter missing the majority of the season. slow start notwithstanding he still maintained excellent pd as evidenced by his 14/16 bb/k ratio. next year will be an important year for him but with his power/speed combo he too could be good for 20/30+ at the major league level to go along w/ excellent pd. another high ceiling prozi that shouldn't be forgotten.
Jordan Schafer - Atlanta (21-22 yrs old) - .269/.378/.471 for AA mississippi - not a bad year considering he missed time due to a drug suspension. jordan still managed to hit 10 homers and swipe 12 of 17 bases. his 49/88 bb/k ratio is also pretty good. overall, i was very surprised to see how good of a season he actually had all things considered. the future is still bright for mr. schafer.
Fernando Martinez - New York NL (19 yrs old) - .287/.340/.432 for AA binghampton - fernando certainly has his critics but to be holding his own like he has at age 19 in AA is quite the feat. fernando smacked 8 homers, swiped 6 of 8 bags and had an unimpressive 27/73 bb/k ratio but again, he's certainly has time to improve this. again, another high ceiling prospect. there's certainly much to like here as well.
Austin Jackson - New York AL (21 yrs old) - .285/.354/.419 for AA trenton - austin had a very good year in the eastern league. austin hit 9 bombs to go along with 19 steals in 25 attempts. austin projects to be a 20/20 man in the majors as he matures. austin certainly needs to work on improving his pd. as his 56/113 bb/k ratio has pretty much stayed stagnant over the last 2 years. a very exciting player nonetheless. he could hit the big apple sometime in late 2009 or early 2010.
Ben Revere - Minnesota (20 yrs old) - .379/.433/.497 for class A beloit - ben has certainly established that he's one hell of a hitter. he boasts some pretty impressive skills as evidenced by his 31/44 bb/k ratio, 44 steals in 57 attempts. however, at 5'9" 166/lbs he doesn't project to be much of a homerun threat as evidenced by his 1 dinger in 340 at bats. i certainly love the rest of the story though.
Michael Brantley - Milwaukee (21 yrs old) - .319/.395/.398 for AA huntsville - michael had an excellent season with 4 homers, 28 of 36 bases stolen and a whopping 50/27 bb/k ratio. i think the only real question mark here is just how much power he'll ultimately develop as he seems to be a really solid player. you gotta love the plate discipline. he should be terrific at the top of milwaukee's lineup.
Engel Beltre - Texas (18 yrs old) - .283/.308/.403 for class A clinton - engel has been touted as a possible future stud. a diamond in the rough only needing the necessary polish. engel had a solid season jacking 8 bombs to go along with 31 steals in 42 attempts. that's the good, now for the bad, engel drew only 15 walks versus 105 k's. needless to say, like most young players this is an area that needs to improve drastically. the good news is he has time on his side and a boat load of talent.
Cedric Hunter - San Diego (20 yrs old) - .318/.362/.442 for class A+ lake elsinore - cedric had a very good season smacking 11 homers while also swiping 12 of 18 bags which is a pretty big improvement from last year. He also gets very high marks in the pd department with a 42/47 bb/k ratio. i think he's definitely opened some eyes and he's definitely a prospect to watch going into next year.
Jose Tabata - Pittsburgh (20 yrs old) - .277/.345/.388 total minors - jose had an o.k. season overall in AA with 8 homers, 18 of 20 bases stolen and a 36/67 bb/k ratio. i guess i'm a tad disapponted with all of the prospect hype around him but at age 20 he still has plenty of time to blossom. until he proves otherwise though there will always be questions surrounding just how much power he'll develop. next year is huge for him imo.
Che-Hsuan Lin - Boston (19 yrs old) - .249/.342/.359 for class A greenville - mr. lin had a very good season which led to a futures game appearance where he did quite well. not a whole lot of pop with 5 homers on the season but he's definitely shown excellent speed with 33 of 40 bases stolen. mr. linny has also shown very good pd with a 43/62 bb/k ratio.
HM - Angel Morales, Gorkys Hernandez, Peter Bourjos, Corey Brown, Julio Borbon & Tyler Colvin
3 recs |
87 comments
Comments
Mike Stanton
Is it pretty much a foregone conclusion that he can’t stay in CF?
The Dodgers won't win a playoff series until the Cool-a-Coo returns.
by mckeeno on
Sep 18, 2008 2:46 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
range?
you mentioned nothing of range. any idea who the top 5 defensive CF’s are? I’m not talking about arm strength. Just defensive range. (I have see Maybin praised for his range in CF, and I’ve seen Fowler critisized for his mental lapes in defense in CF). so what say you?
Which 5 have the strongest arms?
Go Pirates!!!
by cool hand Charlie on
Sep 18, 2008 2:49 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
best CF arms?
Schafer, who many teams liked more as a LHP when he was drafted, has got to be on that list.
He might also be on the “best range” list.
Ben Revere has elite speed. I don’t know how well he uses it on D, but he certainly could have some of the most range of minor league CFs.
McCutchen seems to have very good range and speed when I saw him.
Fernando Perez is more of a 4th OF than a prospect, but he has super wheels and glove.
Borbon is kind’ve erratic but when I saw him in college he was a burner.
The Marlins John Raynor has above-average CF range and a real good arm
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 3:03 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Revere
From what I understand the only reason he stayed in Low A this year was because of his fielding/arm. I don’t know if it was one more than the other but I read multiple comments about his arm problems. However, I’m not sure if it’s accuracy or if it’s arm strenghth.
Peyton's good but have you ever heard of Jeff George?
by halfchest on
Sep 18, 2008 4:34 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
yeah
it has been known since HS that he can’t throw. If he can hit, and his routes and such are refined enough to take advantage of his super speed, I’d think he wouldn’t have a problem being in CF.
Sizemore, Damon, Pierre, ect.. none of them could throw but they made up for it enough to be good CFs
He has elite speed and has shown it in track, baseball and football so it certainly has the ability to project as a CF but it is certainly possible he needs to work on the fundamentals of CFing though
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 4:41 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Schafer has great range
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Sep 18, 2008 3:11 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Generally thought of the best defensive CF in the minors
Or at least above low-A; don’t really know. Maybe there’s a tremendous defender down there from a recent draft or something.
I also don’t think Schafer in general isn’t being given enough credit for the way he finished the season. IMO, he showed that he’s the XBH machine everyone saw in 2007, he’s possibly less than a year away from the bigs, and he’s regarded very highly defensively.
Oh, and he turned 22 like two weeks ago.
I don’t think Fowler has passed him, and I’d put him up with the Maybin/Rasmus/McCutchen group or maybe just below it.
by mraver on
Sep 19, 2008 8:00 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I haven't seen it personally, but Corey Brown supposedly has an exceptional arm
He’s certainly fast enough to have very good CF range, but I gather his defensive “intangibles” (jumps, reads, routes, etc) are a work in progress.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 18, 2008 3:43 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
He has said in the past this is strictly fantasy related.
Remember: baseball guys... baseball...
by Metty5 on
Sep 18, 2008 4:32 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
thats cool
I use tools like this for strat purposes. It doesnt alter what he posted above. And offensive projections still matter for me as well. I just love hearing about range and arm on these guys in line with their offensive potential as well. but i see what you are saying. thanks
Go Pirates!!!
by cool hand Charlie on
Sep 18, 2008 8:13 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
i think the most impressive years belonged to
ben revere, dexter fowler, and jordan schafer, with admittedly the last name being a bit biased.
revere’s got elite contact hitting skills, and speed. both should translate well up the ladder.
fowler’s got tremendous physical potential and the makings of elite secondary skills. i don’t think his average will hold up, but if he can hit .260, he’s got the plate discipline to make that work. he’s got a ceiling well above that, though.
schafer has 2 ML ready skills already. he crushes RHP to a line of .311/.418/.568, and he also plays an elite CF. being a phillies fan for at least part of my life, i’ve tracked the development of chase utley and even ryan howard, and i can say that it is very possible for a young player to improve his ability to hit against pitching from the same side. seeing jordan schafer’s significantly improved plate discipline, i think he’s likely to improve this area of his game.
daryl jones also deserves a special mention here. i see him having a very productive future.
the rest doesn’t really impress me. halman and michael saunders strike me as CAL/PCL league mirages. so does cedric hunter. i see nothing about michael brantley that leads me to believe that he’s better than michael bourn or brett gardner. tabata, lin, f-mart, and austin jackson don’t really strike me as being appreciably better than gorkys hernandez, who is two steps below jordan schafer in my mind.
everyone but the 4 i mentioned at the top strike me as lottery tickets. they’re great to have, and they can really brighten up your spirits and allow you to dream about the future, but they’re an absolute crapshoot, and any of them could succeed or fail for any number of unknown reasons.
ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't
by variablesdont on
Sep 18, 2008 2:50 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
oh, and i'll add that this is great stuff, as usual
the community really needed these lists.
ANATOMY OF ERA:
Variables Don't; Constants Aren't
by variablesdont on
Sep 18, 2008 3:06 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
thanks!
sorry it took so long.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Sep 18, 2008 3:12 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Cedric Hunter is not a CAL-creation...
Lake Elsinore has a LCF that’s 425 ft from home plate.
As a 19 yr old in the notoriously rough MWL, Hunter hit .282/.344/.375…
And as a freshly drafted 18 yr-old, he was AZL MVP hitting .371/.467/.484
He plays above-average defensive CF… For his minor league career, he has 131 BB vs. 151 SO.
by pffriberg on
Sep 22, 2008 1:04 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Why are
Tabata and Martinez on the CF lists?
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 3:14 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
They've both been playing CF
Jesus Montero was on the catcher list, so guys who have been playing CF in Double-A belong on this list, even if they won’t play center in the majors.
by aap212 on
Sep 18, 2008 3:16 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Great List
There is some tweaking that can be done here (I would move Gorkys up, move Hunter to HM, excise Colvin entirely, and do some re-ordering with the top guys), but this is a very good list overall. Nicely done as usual, Pinstripes.
by aap212 on
Sep 18, 2008 3:19 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
I don;t see
how Colvin could be removed entirely. If we are going 15-20 deep he certainly qualifies. He has been real sketchy but his tools are exciting and just a little more polish to his game could make him an impact MLB OF.
Everything I’ve heard about Bourjos seems exciting. Gotta love hard-nosed speedsters who know how to use their talent.
John Raynor, who I mentioned earlier, absolutely needs to be on this list.
He strikes out a little much, and hes a long armed guy who uses arm extension to put a charge in balls so it makes sense that he would always be somewhat K prone, but despite that hes always been a .300+ hitter… and it isn’t like he is a strikeout machince either.
He won the SAL MVP last year but was understandably ignored prospect-wise since he was a 23-yo college vet playing in a hitters park in low A.
But now he has jumped up to AA and is playing in a pitchers haven and is still raking.
His tools are all average or above. He is a thinner guy but he has some “wiry” strength and can drill balls gap-to-gap. His homer power is probably a little better than it looks stat wise this year since the park he is in kills homers (very tall walls) but he wouldn’t project as more than a 20 homer guy anyway.. maybe 25 if he fills out more. But those 15-20 homers should come with bunches of doubles and triples.
His arm is real good, 60 or 70 on the 20-80 depending on how generous you are. His speed is also probably in that range too and he really knows how to use it. He has always been a prolific, and highly efficient, base stealer.
I think he is a legit MLB CF too. Not a gold glover, but probably an above average CF. He hasn’t been playing much CF this year but that is just due to the presence of Maybin on his team (a big reason Raynor has been overlooked), not because he can’t play CF. He was a college CF and a CF last year and is a good one.
I will admit to some bias here since I’ve got to watch him play since he was in college. He was one of those guys I like to credit myself with a “personal find” on since I had never heard of him before I saw him play. There was a catcher on him team, Hatcher, who was much more highly touted but the second I saw Raynor play you could tell there was pro level talent there.
ok.. brag over.
I know Granderson comps get throw around too easily, since it seems a lot of folks don’t really grasp how good that guy is, but there are some very real similarities here.. to me at least. Granderson though has been putting up 130-135 OPS+s the last couple years… its hard to say that Raynor will hit that well, though that is no fault of Raynor’s.. just a statement on how good Granderson has been.
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 3:37 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Colvin
Guys with star tools shouldn’t struggle in Double-A at 22 in their second exposure to it. I don’t see the polish coming around to make him more than a bench player. His walk rate has gone from tremendously bad to merely mediocre, and he still doesn’t make contact enough for my taste. Plus he probably won’t have the glove to be an everyday CF in the majors.
All of that makes him what, Rickie Weeks without the walks playing a corner? That’s a really exciting bench player, but not someone I want on a top CF prospect list.
by aap212 on
Sep 18, 2008 3:51 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
No love for Michael Saunders?
Remember it’s the Mariners. They play guys like Willie Bloomquist and Wlad in CF, so they definitely will play Saunders in CF.
by LCT on
Sep 18, 2008 3:58 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
I was just as surprised to see that Saunders didn't make this list.
I like homeless people. They are funny. I like cake. It is not funny but really delicious.
by Humongo on
Sep 21, 2008 3:33 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I Likes Me Some Halman
But I can’t see him being ranked that high. Not with the immense holes in his game.
by ThomasG on
Sep 18, 2008 3:58 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
I do not understand the Desmond Jennings thing
At all.
Maybe it’s that he instantly looks like an awesome player when you see him, and I just haven’t seen him. Or something.
He’s an injury-prone player who has failed to ever hit at an impact level, has hit at “organizational filler” level in 2 of 3 seasons, and has 15 home runs in 685 at-bats. He does not hit doubles at a level suggestive of a lot of untapped power.
How is an injury-prone guy with a max ceiling of Carl Crawford (which he looks increasingly unlikely to reach) a top CF prospect?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 18, 2008 4:00 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
how would you define last year
He certainly hit at an “impact level” then.
And then you are kind of making up the idea about the the other two seasons.
His first season was a couple months in the Appy League, not only do S-S numbers mean very little, it isn’t like he hit poorly either. He hit decently, a mid 700s OPS is pretty good for Appy League. Typically most of the guys who put up big numbers in the Appy League are college sluggers.
His “season” this year consisted of, what, a months worth of games?
And, again, it isn’t like he hit poorly in that one month. He has a 770 OPS. That is solid.
And how is a CFing Carl Crawford anything less than a high ceiling?
What are you looking for, Ken Griffey?
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 4:10 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well put, NMS
IF it weren’t for the injury this year, Jennings looked to me like a similar player to Austin Jackson.
by aap212 on
Sep 18, 2008 4:43 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
most of the guys who put up good numbers in appy league
are college sluggers?
Unles they are named Wilmer Flores, in which case a mid 800s ops at 16 means less than Jennings mid 700s at 19?
Appy league stats are meaningless? Unless you are a Rays fan defending Desmond Jennings, but if we are talking Tim Beckham, they mean less?
I am just kidding around nms. I understand the context.
by wobatus on
Sep 18, 2008 5:39 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
maybe you aren't even a rays fan
But you seem to like some Rays and marlins prospects. Fla man, huh? Raynor puts up some decent numbers, i’ll say.
by wobatus on
Sep 18, 2008 5:44 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm actually a Braves fan
but where I live I am close to several Marlins minor teams and a Rays minor team.
I’ve never seen Jennings play, so I’m reluctant to say anything too definite about him. Thats why I limited my response in that last post simply to refuting the inaccuracies in the description of the stats.
Raynor though I have seen play, and consequently I am very high on him. Nice all around ballplayer.
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 5:52 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
he's a little long in the tooth
but hey, Ryan Ludwick is a star now. I will keep an eye on Raynor. And thanks for being a sport. I don’t know much about scouting guys. I see a coupla Staten island yankee games or Cyclone games, but that’s about it.
take care.
by wobatus on
Sep 18, 2008 5:55 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Mmmm... Cyclones games.
Of course you don’t know much about scouting guys if that’s where you see your minor league games. How can anyone scout too closely at a Cyclones game? With the ocean right there and cold Brooklyn Lager that hasn’t even left the borough, it’s pretty hard to not just chill and enjoy baseball without scrutinizing any one guy too hard.
by aap212 on
Sep 18, 2008 5:58 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
truth be told
I am just chilling at those games. Holt looked good when i saw him though. :)
by wobatus on
Sep 18, 2008 6:01 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
thats because Holt is a good looking pitcher
some arms grow on you as you see how they work more, others you can just get a good feeling right off that bat. Holt is definitely the latter. Gotta love easy velo.
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 6:03 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
holt
yeah, you don’t need to know much to tell he is good. My mother took my nephew to a game and told me there’s this really good pitcher from Chapel Hill and I said no mom, he pitched for uncw. She was disappointed (my parents are both from North Carolina, dad from Winston-Salem and my mother from Burlington; dad saw Harvey Haddix pitch minor league ball back in the day).
by wobatus on
Sep 18, 2008 11:26 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Carl Crawford just isn't that good
He’s only a slightly above average hitter for his position. He is a good fielder, but there’s a limit to what you can do in LF. He’s worth about 2 wins above average.
As a ceiling goes, that is not particularly high, certainly not for a prospect who’s been fawned over as much as Jennings has.
I wouldn’t define a mid-800s OPS in A-ball as “impact.” Good yes, impact no.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 18, 2008 6:51 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
ignent
Firstly, I said Carl Crawford as a CF. You are underestimating how much Crawford contributes in every aspect of the game. Hes a above-average hitter for his position, a great fielder for his position and among the best baserunners in the game. How is all that, as a CF, anything less than really good?
As for you comment about “impact hitting”, how much hitting do you think goes on the SAL?
He was 15th in the SAL in OPS among players 350-400 plus PAs and third among players who play a middle of the diamond position (4th if you want to count Josh Reddick as a CF). The two middle diamond players who hit more than him in the SAL were both 22-23 year olds.
Almost all of the guys with 900+ OPSs in the SAL were 21-23 year old college sluggers who were generally 1b/DH/LFs. Guys like Andrew LeFave, Jon Still, Brandon Tripp, Mike McHenry (who at least was a C, although his numbers were way inflated by hitting in Asheville). 24 year old LF Jonel Pacheo was also up there.
The best OPS in the league was from Ryan Royster and though Royster was only 21 he was also a vet of his 4th pro year.
What exactly is a 19 yo CF supposed to hit in the SAL?
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 7:03 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I basically assume that a player will put up the same "net defense" regardless of where on the diamond you put him
Teams aren’t going to do obviously ridiculous things like play Jack Cust at shortstop.
CFers are much, much more important than LFs and the position is much, much more difficult to play. A guy who is a +10 in left field might well be below average in center. I doubt Crawford would be much above average defensively as a center fielder; in any event, it wouldn’t do anything more to help his team win. If it would, it means you aren’t adjusting for position correctly (or a player is some kind of weird outlier; they do exist but they aren’t real common).
Whether you call his 2007 season “impact” is, I suppose, a matter of opinion (and I’ve stated mine). Regardless, the fact remains that he has not progressed past the A level and has already sustained multiple major injuries and shown a severe inability to remain on the field. He’s missed over 50% of his teams’ games the last two years.
If Jennings actually projected out to be Crawford, he would be a very good prospect. As it is he’s more like a guy with a 20% chance to be Crawford, a 20% chance to be Chone Figgins and a 60% chance of being a bench player or a bust. That’s not particularly good, and it’s distinctly worse than a lot of the guys on this list and a lot of guys who are not on this list.
We should institute the “Ryan Sweeney test”: if this player is not one that you would trade Ryan Sweeney to get, he’s not that great. There’s no way on earth I would trade Ryan Sweeney for Desmond Jennings. Tabata, Beltre and Lin (and some of the HMs) fail this test too.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 18, 2008 8:53 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
You wouldn't trade Ryan Sweeney for Desmond Jennings?
That’s fairly crazy.
by aap212 on
Sep 18, 2008 9:25 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I see nothing crazy about it...
Sweeney may only be an average player right now, but what guarantees do you have that Jennings ever reaches the majors? Jennings upside is not so high that he should be considered a top prospect. He is a decent prospect, so why would you trade a decent major leaguer for him? I may not agree with PaulThomas on a lot of things, and I think he is usually too biased towards Oakland players (which he is allowed to be), but I wouldn’t trade Sweeney for any of those players he listed either.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on
Sep 18, 2008 10:56 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Let me put it this way...
If Jennings is healthy in the future and moves up the chain, but doesn’t develop his power or plate discipline at all (and even regresses a little), he’ll be the same player as Sweeney. Sweeney may have tools, but even throughout his minor league career, he has hardly ever shown the performance. He had a nice run in AAA in 2006, but otherwise? I see a whole lot of banjo-hitting. And he doesn’t draw all that many walks. So I see hardly any chance that he’s ever a starter on a good team. Jennings still has a very decent chance to do that, even if he has a chance of not even being a fourth outfielder like Sweeney.
And by the way, lumping Jennings in with the youngest, rawest, most underperforming guys on the list isn’t fair. I wouldn’t trade Jennings for Sweeney, and I also wouldn’t trade him for any of those guys.
I also guarantee you that Billy Beane would trade Sweeney for Jennings straight-up.
by aap212 on
Sep 19, 2008 12:28 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
That's the thing....
IF.
If Jennings is healthy in the future. If he moves up the chain. What are the “ifs” for Sweeney? If he doesn’t improve at all? He is only about 18 months older than Jennings and is a 307/358/402 hitter in the major leagues. Will Jennings be putting up a similar line in the majors when he is Sweeney’s age? And who is to say that Sweeney can’t develop more power? It’s not like we are talking about trading a 37 year old vet with those numbers for Jennings (if we were, I would do that deal). We are talking about a 23 year old kid who is succeeding in his first go around in the majors. Jennings numbers in the minors are not all that much more impressive than what Sweeney did either. 30 points of OBP and 30 of SLG. It’s not like Jennings has a 50 point OBP and 100 point SLG lead.
Sweeney right now, is a solid major leaguer. He may get better, he may get worse. But he has contributed to the major league club. When he was Jennings’ age, he was succeeding in AAA, not sitting on a Hi-A injured reserve list. And there is no reason to believe that Sweeney could not be a starting OF on a winning club. Will he be the star OF? Not likely. But he can be a solid OF, the third best one on the team, for a Division winner. He can easily be a 65-70 RBI hitter batting 7th or 8th on a good team. A LH bat to break up a bunch of righties that often dominate the bottom of line-ups. I see Sweeney as maybe becoming a Terrence Long type of player, with less power but a better BA/OBP. And Terrence Long was a starter on some good Oakland teams in the early 2000s.
Now see what you made me do? I had to defend an Athletic. I feel all dirty now. I’m not even a huge Sweeney fan… in fact I turned down an offer to acquire him this past off season in my DMB League.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on
Sep 19, 2008 2:43 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Easy there
You’re ready to definitely label Sweeney a 307/358/402 hitter in the majors? It’s a nice first full season, but it’s also just a BABiP correction away from being a guy with a sub-350 OBP, a sub-400 SLG, and who doesn’t play centerfield well. You want to compare him to Terrence Long? Go ahead. Terrence Long wasn’t a good player. His OPS+ topped 100 twice, and just barely at that. He was another guy Beane took a worthwhile flier on, but who didn’t pan out well.
It’s not too late for Sweeney to improve a little more, but I have no reason to think he’ll provide enough defensive value, on base skills, or power to be more than a fourth outfielder.
Now Jennings may turn out just the same way or worse, but one big injury that everyone has expressed confidence about does not turn the guy into Rocco Baldelli or Kenny from South Park. Last offseason, Jennings as a top 60 prospect for BA and a top 20 prospect for BP. His season was lost to an injury that should recover fine. He has a lot more projection left in him, and I think the projection ship has sailed on Ryan Sweeney.
Jennings’ upside is something like Carl Crawford with better walk rates and a CF glove. His downside is pretty much the same as Sweeney’s.
by aap212 on
Sep 19, 2008 3:31 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Rankings don't mean crap.
Rankings won’t turn Jennings into a good player or a bad player. The Patriots were the top ranked football team all of last season, it didn’t earn them a championship. Sweeney was a top 100 prospect three years in a row (including #42 and #55) by Baseball America. It doesn’t mean anything.
Jennings downside being Sweeney is a bit optomistic. His downside is that he never even reaches AAA. I am also curious as to why you think there is no more projection left with Sweeney. Does that mean in 18 months, Jennings will not improve any more as a player? His skills will have peaked? As a 21 year old player, Jennings put up a line of 259/360/412 in High A. As a 21 year old, Sweeney put up a line of 296/350/452 in AAA. Seems to me Sweeney has faced much stiffer challenges throughout his career than Jennings has at the same age and put up comparable hitting numbers. Yet, Sweeney has no projection and Jennings does?
And as for Long… he wasn’t a bad player. If you compare him to Crawford (Jennings’ upside) you’ll see that Crawford only has 20 points on Long when it comes to career OPS. So if you take away Crawford’s stolen bases (which Long did well in the minors until injuries got him) you basically have the same player…. since, unlike Crawford, Long was a very good defensive CF. So maybe Jennings more logical comp is Terrence Long. A good defensive CF who was hampered by injuries but could draw a walk, but also struck out a decent amount of times as well.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on
Sep 19, 2008 4:19 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Let's see...
1) Sweeney doesn’t show much projection to me because he’s been at Triple-A or the majors for three years, and his ISOs are still stuck in the neighborhood of 100. That power people have been waiting for hasn’t come, and I see absolutely no reason to believe it will. And again, his walk rates and CF defense don’t make up for that. Jennings was stalled by an injury, but there’s no sign that his development has stalled. IF he plateaus like Sweeney for three years, then he won’t have much projection left either. But for a player with his tools, his scouting reports, and his breakthrough last year, there’s plenty of reason to have hope for further development.
2) Comparing Terrence Long and Carl Crawford because of career OPS isn’t fair. Crawford played his first full season in the majors at 21. Long played his at 24. Long actually had his best year that first year. If you look at Crawford’s numbers even just since turning 22 or 23, his numbers are easily superior to Long’s.
by aap212 on
Sep 19, 2008 11:16 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Comparison
Ryan Sweeney:
Age 21 in AAA: 296/350/452 (Plus 35ab in the majors)
Age 22 in AAA: 270/348/398 (Plus 45ab in the majors)
Age 23 in MLB: 299/362/399
Geovanny Soto:
Age 22 in AAA: 253/357/342 (Plus 1ab in the majors)
Age 23 in AAA: 269/351/383 (Plus 25ab in the majors)
Age 24 in AAA: 353/424/652 (Plus 54ab in the majors)
Now, I don’t think Sweeney is going to start hitting like Geo Soto, but there is precedence for younger players who are playing older players in the high minors to not break out until age 24 or 25. There is still projection left in players until they hit their late 20s usually.
"My mom always taught me it's better to laugh at yourself than to laugh at others. She was so wrong. ;)" -Pedrophile
by Boxkutter on
Sep 19, 2008 2:32 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
True
But the odds get steeper. I’m not saying Sweeney can’t get better, but as time passes and he keeps failing to show power, the odds of him ever doing it get longer. Sean Burroughs is the name that keeps coming to mind with him, and Burroughs had better plate discipline and age/league in the minors than Sweeney.
Jennings may well have the same projection Sweeney had the same age, but Sweeney has already made it to 23 without developing power, so I’d rather bet on going back to the drawing board.
Soto’s a fantastic player, but his sort of development pattern is the exception, not the rule, and is just another data point in the unpredictability of catching prospects.
by aap212 on
Sep 19, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well, yes
A guy with a .699 OPS in AAA at age 22 can become an all-star – one did, obviously – but any chance you’ll take odds on that?
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Sep 19, 2008 6:02 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Jennings is a great defender
According to John and KG at Baseball Prospectus, he rates out as a plus defender in CF. I think that makes him a much better player than Crawford in the end, provided he hits his ceiling.
As far as the Ryan Sweeney test, I probably would pull the trigger if the test involved the A’s farm system and its billion corner OF’s. Otherwise, I’d pass too… an injury prone CF in A ball is a big risk.
by demondeaconsbaseball on
Sep 18, 2008 11:59 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Impact, yes.
1) If you’re going to judge him by his rate stats in A-Ball last year, fine. He got on base at over a .400 clip. That’s most certainly an impact player in centerfield. Plus, he showed improved power, and looked like a guy who could show more power down the line.
2) Jennings has FAR better walk rates than Crawford had in the minors (or has had in the majors).
2) If you look at Crawford’s numbers from 2004-2007 and tell me that wouldn’t be excellent output from a centerfielder, even if you didn’t add in better walk rates, then you need a reality check.
by aap212 on
Sep 18, 2008 7:07 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Appy League numbers
Detailing what I said about Jennings numbers there still being pretty good, despite how little that means, he was in the top 30 in OPS and top 20 OBP – among batting title qualifiers – in his half year there and many of the names above him were, as I said, college sluggers.
Names like Brandon Buckman, Nick Mahin, Danny Valencia, Stefan Gartrell, Nevin Ashley, Mark Shorey, Chris Emanuele, ect plus there were some 21-22 year old Latins above him the OPS and OBP marks
by nms on
Sep 18, 2008 6:02 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Inconsistent
When referring to plate discipline, it seems you are a little inconsistent.
Daryl Jones had a 55/97 BB/K ratio, which works out to .567 bb’s per k. You said he “certainly could improve.”
Jordan Schafer had a 49/88 BB/K ratio, which is .556 bb’s per k. You called this “pretty good.”
I dont’ have strong opinions about these players or anything, but I’m just curious as to how that works out.
the problem is not "too many left handed hitters" but "too many suck handed hitters"-Zonis
by ohad on
Sep 18, 2008 5:29 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
K/BB ratio without noting PA is incomplete
Personally, I think Schafer had a great walk rate, but struck out just a little too much (unless he’s the new Mike Cameron, which would be terrific for the Braves). It’s nice to see Jones’ walk rate go up in Double-A. He turned into a bit of a three true outcomes guy there, but at his age, and the way he was raking, it’s hard not to love what he showed there.
by aap212 on
Sep 18, 2008 5:56 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
that's an easy one ..
if i like the guy then it’s “pretty good”, if i don’t he “certainly could improve” .. :-)
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Sep 18, 2008 11:22 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Any big voodoo daddies on this list?
Someone like say, Don Hahn?
by wobatus on
Sep 18, 2008 5:52 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Brantley
Not sure how he played this year, but Brantley is far from a decent outfielder defensively according to BA (in the 08 handbook) and he played most of his games in LF.
Definately rooting for Halman since he’s got great potential and he’s from my country (Holland).
by JP_Frost on
Sep 18, 2008 9:41 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
aaron hicks
could very well end up better than a lot of those players.
huge upside
by hotshotschamp on
Sep 19, 2008 8:12 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
He's avoided people from this year's draft
But yes, major upside there.
by aap212 on
Sep 20, 2008 1:04 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I'm still miffed the A's took Jemile Weeks over him
That pick made utterly no sense to me.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 20, 2008 3:58 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
hicks
weren’t they only interested in him as a pitcher, thats what i read
anyways even if he sucked pitching there was time for a conversion back
oh well, at lest they kind of made up for it with dixon getting their high upside athlete later on
by Asfan4ever723 on
Sep 20, 2008 3:22 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Good question
I’m always a pro-Stubbs guy just because I think his defense almost alone makes him a major leaguer of some kind, and the bat has some upside left in it.
by aap212 on
Sep 21, 2008 4:45 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
As a Boston fan
I’d just like to say that there’s no way in hell I’d take Lin, Jennings, or Tabata over Morales, Gorkys, or Borbon.
I really think Lin has been a product of the hype machine so far. He’ll get attention this spring, partly because of the hype, partly because of his age/level, but not at all because of his play. I’d excise him completely, and move Borbon up. I am really, really impressed with what he’s accomplished.
by RedSoxFaithful on
Sep 25, 2008 10:27 AM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Still don't understand
How is Borbon going to be a very good player without walks or power? I can agree the Lin hype is a bit much.
by aap212 on
Sep 25, 2008 11:17 AM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
AKA "The Borbon is a god and should be treated as such" Post
Look at Borbon’s 2008 season, and look at Ellsbury’s 2006 season (the one that got him onto the radar as a top prospect). They are nearly identical in every way- both were in their age 22 seasons, split between A+ and AA. Both excelled at each level, and both actually performed better at AA (after leaving the Cal League, at that). Both had question marks about power, and both actually sustained pretty normal BABIPs. The only difference is, as you said, the plate patience. Ellsbury had a BB% of about 7-8% throughout the minors, while Borbon’s BB% this year was 5%. I’m not really willing to write off a 22 year old hitter who still has ample time to learn to take pitches.
If Borbon were playing in Boston or New York, we would be discussing the merits of putting him on a top 16 list in all of baseball, forget center fielders. (This is not to say that he would deserve it, which he wouldn’t. Just that Ellsbury didn’t really deserve all the hype he got, and Borbon is a very similar player.)
by RedSoxFaithful on
Sep 25, 2008 6:18 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
There you go
I never liked Ellsbury that much as a prospect either, even though he had better walk rates and I had heard better reports about his defense.
by aap212 on
Sep 25, 2008 6:23 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Well
That makes sense. I was on the bandwagon on the time (few people around here weren’t), but looking back- what was so impressive? That being said, Borbon should be getting more attention relative to a.) the attention that Ellsbury got, and b.) the attention that other, similar slap hitters such as Lin and Tabata are getting.
I am fighting the fight of a Rangers fan and I don’t know why.
by RedSoxFaithful on
Sep 25, 2008 6:34 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Off-topic
But do you ever wish somebody would say, “As a Cheerios eater, I think that Max Ramirez is the best hitting prospect since Jay Bruce?”
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Sep 25, 2008 12:36 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Absolutely.
That’s how I order in restaurants. “As a long time believer in Jason Kubel, I’ll have the hangar steak.” Or “In these uncertain economic times, how’s the bisque?”
by aap212 on
Sep 25, 2008 1:36 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Totally
I laughed and all, but the “Boston fan” title was more directed towards my confusion with the Lin love.
by RedSoxFaithful on
Sep 25, 2008 6:10 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Since, you know, he’s in Boston’s system and all.
by RedSoxFaithful on
Sep 25, 2008 6:19 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I can play this too!
As a Cole Hamels lover I’ll take him over almost anything except for a nice MLT, a mutton, lettuce and tomato sandwich, where the mutton is nice and lean and the tomato is ripe. They’re so perky, I love that.
I heard Tim Lincecum will win 1 Cy Young & 11 Tim Lincecums. Question is, how many Cole Hamels will he win?
by the pinstripes on
Sep 25, 2008 4:16 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
People still eat mutton?
The more you know…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
by PaulThomas on
Sep 25, 2008 9:25 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I think mutton's just lamb
So a lamb-chop, for example, is mutton. Though I don’t think anybody outside of England would describe it like that
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Sep 26, 2008 2:53 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I just checked
to make certain I wasn’t imagining the meaning of mutton, and apparently mutton is also an archaic word for a prostitute. A mutton-monger is a pimp. I’m not making this up.
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Sep 26, 2008 2:55 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
mutton is sheep
lamb is the baby. Mutton is the older animal, lamb I believe is less than a year old, even younger for Spring lamb.
I once went toa place called the Chatham Sheepherder’s Inn. Nice lamb’s wool rug on the floor. You could go pet the baby lamb’s at their farm operation. Then, at dinner, juicy, bloody baby lamb. Delicious but kinda sick.
Good mutton at Keen’s Chop House in NYC. But it is a little ranker than lamb, the fat having a particularly noxious smell. Hence, pinstripes, yeh, it is best when lean.
Like the old Seinfeld episode where his date makes him mutton. And they go to Old Homestead and he asks how is the chicken prepared: “It’s a whole bird, stuffed with ham, and covered in gorgonzola cheese.” “I’ll just have the salad.”
by wobatus on
Sep 26, 2008 3:47 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
I like the format
I find text descriptions useful for guys I don’t know much about about. Nice work, and a helpful list.
How far out of HM would Drew Stubbs, Aaron Cunningham, and Michael Saunders be in your mind? My gut reaction was to say these guys should be on the list, but then again, I don’t know enough about Lin, Morales, Borbon, and Brantley to make a case for them being over/under Stubbs/Cunningham/Saunders.
I do think that I’d rather have Stubbs et al. over Colvin.
by siddfynch on
Sep 28, 2008 5:18 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
Cunningham is a corner outfielder
And many of us think the other guys at least deserve an HM.
by aap212 on
Sep 28, 2008 8:05 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
aaron hicks
he may be young, but he deserves to be in this mix more than half of the tools busts who have never proven anything yet, except a big contract and a lot of hope
by IHateMitchMustain on
Oct 1, 2008 7:56 AM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
“As disappointing as the overall talent was for the corner outfield prospects list this more than makes up for it. Obviously, not everyone will stay at center but this a nice crop of talent nonetheless. If I’ve left anyone off the list whether by mistake or otherwise I apologize. Please feel free to let me know.”
This list looked good last year, this year the guys are one year older and almost every single one has regressed. I haven’t seen the corner outfield list, but I hope it doesn’t lack production like this can’t, but did, miss list
by IHateMitchMustain on
Oct 1, 2008 8:00 AM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs
fowler halman and jones
were all better this year, the latter 2 would not have been on many lists last year, i’d think.
by wobatus on
Oct 1, 2008 12:14 PM EDT
up
reply
actions
0 recs
Back to Borbon
Great post overall but I do think that Borbon is clearly top 16 among cf prospects. Remember that except for 37 very rusty at bats at the end of 2007 this was his first year in the minors. While power and bases on balls are challenges it is notable that he performed much better in AA in the last two months than in A ball in his first three and that he performed much better (900+ OPS) in his second month at AA ball than at his first. Before we start talking about the limits of his ability lets wait for him to stop improving quite so quickly as he has been so far.
by Dalman on
Oct 1, 2008 10:32 PM EDT
reply
actions
0 recs






