I have never seen a pitcher in my life that is as polished as Lincecum at his sophmore year. He is so capable of throwing 150 pitches, because he was always allowed 145 in college. Pitch count is overrated in Lincecum’s case. Bruce Bochy was correct to pitch him the distance last night.

This is stupidity. 138 pitches in a 7-0 rout? What’s the point? Just to get an extra shutout on his resume? I hope they at least give him on extra days rest before his next start.

maybe throwing a lot of pitches can strengthen the arm in order to throw over 225 innings a year. We didn’t really hear much about TJ or Labrums until after 1998 with Kerry Wood. These pitchers are babied too much these days and I wonder what the old timers think about this.

It was a 7 nothing lead indeed, but, so what? I don’t think that Bochy was only pitching him 9 because of injury chances. In fact, it had much more to do with Timmy’s heavy workload that he had already established in college. I mentioned he threw 145, but I meant to say 160. He threw 160 pitches in clollege without a problem. Tim Lincecum also has mentioned that he really enjoys pitching 9 innings. So I am glad that Boch did just that

But it’s certainly ballsy on Bochy’s part. He doesn’t really stand to gain anything by doing it. San Francisco is obviously just playing out the string, they had a comfortable lead. I can’t find his pitch count by inning, but he averaged 15 pitches per inning last night. 7 innings would have put him at roughly 108. The scoreless 8th and 9th innings lowered his ERA from 2.46 to 2.43.

It just doesn’t seem worth it for all of the negative attention those 30 extra pitches will get. Right or wrong, if Lincecum gets injured in the next year, Bochy will bear the brunt of the blame, and possibly lose his job.

Before I begin, let me state I understand that this is just one example, is a small sample size, and should not be considered absolute proof of the pitch count vs. injury conundrum.

In 2000, Rany Jazayerli and Keith Woolner had an article on Baseball Prospectus about “Pitcher Abuse Points” for that season. If you want to know the formula for Pitcher Abuse Points, you can go to the BP website and look at the glossary, and subscribers can still read the original article here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=622

Part of the article includes a section on pitchers under 25 with the highest PAP scores. Here’s that list (sorry about the formatting):

Name Team Age PAP

Livan Hernandez Florida 25 344
Randy Wolf Philadelphia 23 233
Sidney Ponson Baltimore 23 191
Kelvim Escobar Toronto 24 190
Jeff Suppan Kansas City 25 187
Kris Benson Pittsburgh 25 168
Ryan Dempster Florida 23 146
Matt Clement San Diego 25 107
Chris Carpenter Toronto 25 101
Octavio Dotel Houston 24 98

Each of those players on the list have had successful major league careers and were on MLB/MiLB rosters in 2008. With the exception of Livan , Ponson and Suppan, every other player on this list has suffered catastrophic arm/elbow/shoulder injuries that required major surgery and/or significant lost playing time.

Riding the shit out of Lincecum won’t guarantee injury, but as you can see there can be a strong correlation with “pitcher abuse” of young guys and further injuries down the road.

Lincecum is a different animal when it comes to this kind of stuff. Not because he’s some wunderkind immune to earthly physics but because of the way he throws. I wish I could find the links that Will Carroll of BP used in an article earlier this summer. Perhaps someone more enterprising can dig them out. Those links demonstrated a step by step history of how he pitches and why he pitches the way he does. Carroll called it the best thing he had ever read on pitching mechanics. In a nutshell he uses his entire body to throw, heavy emphasis on lower half, more so than a typical delivery. He practically propels his torso fwd off the rubber (usually push offs there are a no teach, kids just do it naturally). So despite his slight build there is actually less force on his arm/shoulder than most. If there is a young pitcher playing now that could get away with elevated pitch counts Lincecum is most likely it. He sort of reminds of me of early Pedro, esp.physically but that comp does a disservice to them both. Like Pedro I’m not sure he has a fair one.

 The overall count isn’t as important as pitching “tired”, that is the biggest abuse a mgr. can burden his hurler with. And this is where Prior screwed up w/ Baker, sometimes you have to admit you’re “done”. He wouldn’t. I’m not familiar w/ abuse points, does anyone know if that is listed in there? I’d like to see something that charts how many pitches were thrown after a “bad” inning, how many 3-1, 2-0 counts overall, things like that. Also think about how the game is going – is it cool out or hot as hell? Is he laboring, falling behind most every batter or is he ahead most of the time? How many pitches were thrown the last 3 innings compared to the first three innings or the middle three?

And someone referenced max effort, again this a bit of a misnomer, esp. re: Lincecum. All MLB pitchers are max effort. Josh Beckett looks like he’s flipping darts at a board 10 ft away but if you don’t think he is huffing & puffing on those pitches you’re not watching close enough. Smooth repeatable mechanics & big bodies i.e. a thick middle makes their efforts look less so but no one consistently throws strikes over 90 MPH effortlessly; the best obviously just make it seem that way.

Those pitch counts for Lincecum seem really unneccessary. Hard to believe the potential negatives don’t far outweigh the potential positives. Given that, the 120+ counts just seem foolish.

I remember watching Baseball Tonight back in, what, 91? 92? The story was Steve Avery and how his wonderful mechanics would keep him healthy and strong for his entire career. We all know how that ended.

The reason I mention this is looking at the comments by the Lincecum fanatics posting in this thread. Look, Lincecum is a great talent, deserves the Cy Young this year, and probably will win many more in the future. But there’s a huge difference between being extremely talented and being invicible. He’s young and young pitchers get hurt if they get used to much. It’s that simple.

I happen to think that Tim Lincecum can handle high pitch counts and even throw a little relief on the days he normally throws between starts — but what if I am wrong? There is really no reason to risk slaying the goose that lays the golden eggs IMO.

I do think that now that Tim has pitched his first complete game and shutout, the Giants will be rather prudent regarding his pitch count. In his first start after reaching a career high 132 pitches, I believe Tim threw only 92 pitches. That said, in the other three of his last four starts, he has AVERAGED 132 pitches.

If Tim wins his next start, he likely won’t be given an extra day’s rest as the regular rotation would dictate. Instead, he would likely start a week from tomorrow (Tuesday), putting him in position to pitch against the Dodgers in the final game of the season should he also win on Tuesday and amazingly actually have a shot at 20 wins with a team that is below .400 in games in which he hasn’t pitched or hasn’t had a decision this year.

Steve Carlton in 1972 is considered with his 27-10 record for a Phillies team that won only 59 games over the season to be the best pitcher compared to his team’s record. Steve’s .730 winning percentage that season was .461 higher than the Phillies’ winning percentage when he didn’t pitch or didn’t receive the decision. After his shutout win Saturday night, Tim’s winning percentage was .459 higher than the Giants’ winning percentage without him involved in the decision.

Steve won the Cy Young Award, of course, and Tim should now do so as well.

a SI article of all things. Here it is : http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/07/01/lincecum0707/1.html

After re-reading this I obviously did a piss poor job above of trying to explain what he does. It seems weird being called “old school” but I guess in some ways I am. Pushing 50 now, been coaching HS kids for last decade of it (got my 1st pro this past draft), played for less than that but I never was a pitcher. That might explain some things. I don’t tell my kids to push off they just do, but not always correctly (is what I should have said). Anyway Bob I have always enjoyed and learned some things from your posts, was hoping you would stop by on this and comment more if you like.

The link goes into detail on his extreme athleticism, longer than “normal” stride, but he does a few things differently than most or at least any that I have watched; one being his “ankle kick”, this is what I meant by saying he propels himself fwd. At the time of ball release his right foot is more than a ft in front of the rubber – who else does that? Just a bad description by me. I’ve watched Zach Greinke (among others) drag his back foot before release to change speed w/ their FBs but never seen anyone launch themselves off the rubber like that. I’ve always been a slow & deliberate guy on this stuff, I know plenty who advise “hurry up” but the younger players I work with have enough trouble without me rushing them. Older or bigger kids can speed up. Again perhaps I am missing something here but I have to slow’em down (and use video) to isolate certain problems.

Something else: As for the “step-over” move near the end of his stride, Lincecum explains, “That’s from my hips. I’m getting everything toward the target, and my hips want to go. My hips can’t just go and open up. I’m trying to create torque. That’s when everything kind of explodes. My body comes, and [my arm] is just kind of along for the ride.” What does he mean by step-over?

Regarding his long stride: “That just came naturally,” Tim says. “My dad always told me to sit down on my back leg as long as I could and push off as much as I could. I’m trying to get as much out of my body as possible. I’ve got to use my ankles, my legs, my hips, my back. . . . That’s why I’m so contorted and it looks like I’m giving it full effort when it’s not exactly full effort.”

I would worry that once he is older and less athletic just a slight change in his movements could spell big trouble. Also included in this article is a fascinating sidebar on Prior & his poor mechanics. Geez, I’ve been using that towel drill forever when i should have been putting a dollar on the ground …

Tim has pitched phenomenally against virtually all hitters this season except — hitters leading off innings. I wonder if he SHOULD throw more warm up pitches?

Anyone catch that 2 rbi single by Tulo they ruled an error on Aurilla tonight? Such garbage. Lincecum ended up getting smacked around some more but still. Talk about your hometown ruling for the Cy Young award. All 6 should be earned. Assuming this runner he left on is stranded.

Should have been 6 ER, oh well. If Webb wins his next start, and Lincecum loses his last one, I think Webb wins it.

Looks like they did overturn the ‘error’ on Aurilla.