Revisiting Volquez's pitch counts
by alskor on Sep 14, 2008 12:46 AM EDT
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PrintDusty Baker is an idiot. That is all.
Anyone still want to defend this crap? Why, Dusty? Why? Nothing to play for whatsoever. The funny thing is Im sure there are people still willing to defend this usage pattern, but heck, they made up their minds before they even looked at the evidence.
Oh well, maybe we can convince them next year when Volquez gets hurt and we revisit this again. Actually, Im sure they'll point to something else as the reason even then...
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To give a little background
Sorry, the above was a rant, here’s the data that initiated the rant:
Three starts in September. Pitch counts of 117, 119, 121.
Edinson is now 16th in Pitcher Abuse Points among pitchers with 175+ IP. He has twelve outings this year of 110-121 pitches, which is tied for sixth most in baseball.
Oh, and he pitched 34 MLB innings last year… so they made the modest jump to, 175.2 and counting… awesome. 144 minor league innings, though, for a total of 177… but he started last year in A+ ball… where he put up a 7.13 ERA.
Gentleman, if this works it will be a spectacular success, but there can be no doubt it is an extremely risky proposition to treat a young pitcher this way.
Oh, and Lincecum
138 pitches today. These managers need to be shot in the face with a howitzer. 127 pitches on Monday, too.
Makes even less sense than Volquez, if that’s possible. Then again Cincy is 22 games back, while San Fran is only 10… so I guess its time to ride those young arms. Why bother waiting until you have a good team behind them? Go for it all now! Hell, why not start em both on short rest!
The Pitch Count Obsession
Lincecum was throwing well in the 9th if not better than he was throwing earlier in the game, can we please stop looking at pitch counts, as if all numbers are created equal there are countless factors to look at as far as fatigue, stress, delivery, history etc. this is sooooooooooo much more complicated then checking the box score for the pitch count, there are outings where 70 pitches are worse then 110, this is so player and situation specific that it is a complete waste of time trying to use one single number to determine whether a team is using a player properly.
Ya know what might happen if you let your starter throw 120-130 pitches consistently…he just might be able to ya know throw 120-130 pitches consistently for your team and isnt that more worthwhile then the starters that most teams are creating that once they get near 100 everyone acts like every pitch after is likely to lead to their arm exploding into a million pieces. There is nothing worse then trying to take these silly generalizations and apply them to every player, thats precisely how the giants got lincecum in the first place.
+0.99
I agree with most of what you have said.
However, my concern for Lincecum is that he has a max-effort delivery. I realize that he repeats the delivery well and consistently, however, going full throttle at the lengths he does (high pitch counts), there is good reason to be concerned about the stress being put on his arm (and the whole body).
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
I'm not entirely sure...
that I agree with the fact that Lincecum has a Max effort delivery. From everything I read he excels at using his lower body for power and lets his arm go along for the ride. Now I cant know for sure but I would venture to guess that Lincecum puts less strain on his arm than most MLB starters.
Besides he’s a FREAK!
Not that I am happy about watching him go out there and throw 130 pitches but I understand that getting him his first CG was a special occasion so I was ok with it. But if Bochy makes him go out there again and run up the total for no reason then I am going to be a little pissed.
He threw 127 pitches on MONDAY
This wasnt a one time thing – its a stupid pattern of behavior.
It really eats me up to see young stars treated like this. These guys need to be protected and nurtured. Not pushed to their limits, and even if you do fall on the side of pushing them it made no sense in these cases to do so in terms of game and team context. No need whatsoever.
Why protect him?
The thing is, Lincecum has already stated he wants to sign one year deals before testing free agency. Why should the Giants protect his arm when they know they probably won’t resign him? If I was a GM, I would do what Billy Beane does; get maximum value from the pitchers by riding the young arms into the ground before either trading them or letting them walk via free agency. I know it may not be politically correct but go look what the Jays are doing with Burnett’s pitch counts this year or what the Brewer’s are doing with Sabathia. If you don’t think you will be able to keep a guy long term, then you better maximize their value short term.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 14, 2008 10:44 AM EDT up reply actions
2 things
First, what “young arms” have the A’s “ridden into the ground”? Let’s see, there’s Mark Mulder and… um… uh… Mark Mulder! Yeah, OK.
Second, and more apropos, even if the Giants concede that Lincecum is 100% for sure certainly on the way out of town in 2013, that’s still FIVE MORE SEASONS that he’s in San Fran. Burnett and Sabathia are free agents NEXT YEAR. That’s not even remotely comparable.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
It isn't an insult
Look at Zito. Perhaps his workload is one of the reasons that he can only hit the low 80s on the radar gun today. Mulder is another example. Also, do you think that it is possible that Harden’s injury woes are possibly contributed by the 189 innings he tossed as a 22 year old? It is impossible to know but it is a possibility. Another arm the A’s used up and dealt was Corey Lidle. He wasn’t young but it is very impressive that Beane and the A’s were able to get all they could out of Lidle before dealing his washed up arm to the Jays. Personally, I admire the A’s for not going out of the way to protect the arms. You have to maximize your assets and if they are not going to be with you long term, then you better maximize their short term potential.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 14, 2008 2:15 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't say it was an insult, I said it wasn't true...
Zito’s mechanics, or lack thereof, have been the subject of numerous web dissections. He is not physically incapable of getting the ball to 90 MPH anymore— he just isn’t actually doing it. The best one can say for the theory that the A’s “damaged” Zito is that it hasn’t been literally disproven yet, just isn’t very likely.
Rich Harden’s innings went 153-176-194-128-flameout. If anything, that’s a model of how to build a guy’s arm up. It’s not Oakland’s fault that he’s so fragile he injures himself turning off his alarm clock.
Lidle suffered no dropoff in IP at all when he was dealt. He did immediately start sucking, but if you look at his component rates there really wasn’t much of a downgrade at all.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I thought it was 4 more years
I thought since Timmy was called up early enough that he would be a FA in 4 seasons. I could be wrong but it is just something I remember reading.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 14, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Non-experts (including most sports journalists) frequently confuse Super Two status with free agency
Lincecum will be a Super Two after next season, but he will have 4 arbitration seasons before he becomes a free agent.
Rule of thumb: if a guy starts the season with a club, he’ll be a free agent in six years. If he comes up at the end of April, he will be a free agent in 7 years but will have 4 arb years. If he comes up at the end of May, he will be a free agent in 7 years and will only have 3 arb years.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
No way
Just because everyone is different is no reason to throw your hands up and say “oh well! we cant tell for sure because everyone is different!” There is statistical evidence to support that if you use young pitchers the way these two managers did they are MORE LIKELY to get hurt. That’s the reason you dont risk it.
There are those that would you have believe pitchers all used to throw more in the old days… but they dont realize the attrition factor. if you read about old ballplayers many, many of them blew their arms out from pitching too much. In “the Glory of Their Times” probably five guys talk about how they pitched a ton of innings and were never the same. If you let everyone pitch more pitches then yes, the guys who reached the majors would all be able to go longer like the olds days – BUT many more than now would get injured and not make it.
When you push a young guy like Volquez or Lincecum youre rolling the friggin dice and its inexcusable. You may find out that they CAN INDEED throw 130 pitches regularly, but more often youre going to find out they cant and in the meantime youve ruined a young arm.
Its like taking teen drivers
and having them go 100 mph… sure youre going to find out some of them could go 100 mph safely and under control. BUT what about the ones who could only 80 mph safely? Plus, there’s every reason to believe there is more of the latter than the former, just as there is every reason to believe that more guys can safely throw ~100-110 pitches than can throw 120-130. Therefore, its absurd to risk the most valuable asset in baseball, a young strikeout, front line starter, to see if he can throw an extra 10-20 pitches per start.
+1
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 14, 2008 10:41 AM EDT up reply actions
maybe these lower pitch counts lead to more injuries
haven’t you noticed that a lot of the pitchers 30-40 years ago threw over 300 innings. Besides Lincecum is a throwback to Bob Feller and Sandy Koufax.
Asked
and answered.
We can prove a correlation these days between higher pitch counts and injuries in young pitchers. While guys did throw more in the past, there was a trail of young arms that got ruined that never made it to the majors. For every Feller countless Mark Prior or Pedro Martinez types were wrecked before they reached MLB – we just dont remember their names… we only remember those who made it.
Ill even concede that what youre saying MAY be true – but you know what? You start it with younger kids, and make it part of the system. You dont just treat one kid differently once he makes the majors when youve never prepared him for being treated like this. You kept him on lower pitch counts all the way up and now youre going to start using him differently because “Oh, maybe these lower pitch counts lead to more injuries” – that’s sketchy. If the Giants had instituted a new policy of treating ALL their pitchers this way from short season up I could perhaps buy this argument (though still probably not)… but they havent done that. What theyve done is treat one guy, Lincecum in a reckless way and in a pattern of usage inconsistent with the rest of their pitching assets. So you’ll excuse me if I find the reasoning of “maybe these lower pitch counts lead to more injuries” to ring hollow in these cases.
Good point
You raise an excellent point about consistency of pitcher treatment, starting in short season ie around 18yo. This raised the question in my mind—wasn’t Lincecum treated roughly in college? I seem to remember, and am too lazy to look it up, that he would regularly/not uncommonly be used as a reliever on Sun after pitching Fri. Point being, as others have said here many times, I think we should regard Lincecum as an outlier in any discussion of pitcher usage. He may be a freak because he was treated so roughly at such a young age, or he may have been treated so roughly because he was a freak. Knowing what we know about Lincecum’s understanding of his mechanics, his athleticism, his routines, and his physiological recovery/reaction, I don’t think it is a mistake to classify him differently than most ‘regular’ pitchers.
On the flip side, I think we should very much be worried about Volquez. His is a classical case of pitcher abuse.
by snipsnappity on Sep 14, 2008 12:13 PM EDT up reply actions
I’d hate to be a Giants in the off-chance he’s not some kind of unique freak of nature who can sustain 130 pitches a start ad infinitum.
It’d be completely different BTW if the Giants and Reds were chasing a playoff berth; the fact they’re not makes this sort of risk ridiculous.
Exactly
This what prompted me to revisit this discussion. Before, all arguments were tempered by the competitive nature of things, which many used as a reason for this pattern of use… the fact that this pattern of usage continues now for Volquez and in Lincecum’s case accelerates is ridiculous. There is now no counterbalance – not advantage at all – in treating these pitchers this way. All that remains is the risk without any reason for taking it. I wanted to see how those who defended Dusty in May would feel about this under these circumstances.
pitchers 30-40 years ago and beyond
I believe that today, pitchers have a longer wait between innings than they did back in the day, due to longer commercial breaks, which causes their arms to get colder between pitching, which means lower pitch counts than they were once able to acheive. Joe Castiglione once said that, not sure of the science of it.
by chrislikeskane on Sep 15, 2008 3:30 PM EDT up reply actions
Have we learned nothing from Mark Prior?
I remember the “he has the perfect delivery, he can handle the load” comments with Prior.
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