Denard Span's power potential.

I really never thought he’d hit 10 or more in a season. Who knew… I believe he’s pushing his power potential right now. I believe he tops out at about 8-10 annually, but Span could push 15-18 in a career year.

Kenny Lofton hit 6 homers in 4 minor league seasons, then he topped out at 15, and hit 14 twice. I can see Span hitting 15 in a few years.

Lofton wasn’t meant as a comp. I was thinking maybe Randy Winn, although maybe his ceiling is higher given how well he’s played. Winn had some decent seasons though.

I think that Span should be the Twins CF going forward. He was a former 1st round pick, and his defensive range, while not in Gomez’ class, is plenty good to play CF in the majors. Right now, he’s an above average fielder, and should get better as he gets experience. He’s also much more fundamentally sound with his routes, throws and fielding as opposed to Gomez, who is prone to bobbles, slipping down and airmailing throws to show off his gun of an arm.
Let’s also recall that Span had LASIK surgery this offseason, and all his rates (bb rate, k rate and line drive rate) have spiked this year vs. what he has done in the minors. When you consider that all those things improved as he moved from AAA to the majors, you have to believe that this is no fluke, and that his new visual acuity is the primary cause of his offensive gains. He’s a plus player right now offensively and defensively, and has a shot to have a Lofton without the steals type of impact on the Twins. That’s not all bad.

He’s for real.
JAS

I think a lot of Twins fans are eating crow in regards to Mr. Span this year, including myself. I think many of us were thinking a AAAA or 4th outfielder at best. I have to believe that Span is for real. He ended last year really well in AAA as well as how he’s done so far this year so it’s more than just one season of improved performance. I really wish he could have done this a year ago though so the Twins wouldn’t have picked up Gomez. If the Twins had went for one of the Red Sox packages centered around Lester/Lowrie they’d be even deeper in good starting pitching and have their Middle Infield problems basically solved.

I don’t think Span will hit more than 10 a year on average but who knows, he is young and maybe his new found power is legit and he can become a 15-20 HR guy.

Poor man’s Granderson and/or somewhere close to what the Tigers’ centerfielder is doing.

I think a poor man’s Joe Mauer is a better comp for his hitting skills. He’ll hit for a bit less average and he doesn’t have the power potential that Mauer maybe, kinda , sorta supposedly has. In the coming years, I think Span’ll begin to walk more than he strikes out though not to the extent that Mauer’s doing it.

Mauer and Span just look similar in the box. They work counts, let the ball get deep on them, and don’t try to do too much with it. This thread was started by someone being surprised by Span’s two homer game, but having watched the game, I think the second homer was an accident. He had runners on second and third with nobody out. It looked to me like he was just trying to pull the ball in the air to move the runners up and it went over the fence. He’s got some pop and can yank one out if it’s the right pitch, but looking at HitTracker, all of his homers have been to right field and none of them went over 400 feet, so expecting more than 10 HRs annually seems a bit optimistic.

I think the increase in power this year versus former is a result of his increased selectivity. He’s swinging at better pitches, hitting them squarer and they’re going farther.

It’s tough to judge the future performance of any prospect, but Span is especially tough because we can’t trust his track record. I think he’s proven that he’s not just on a hot streak. He’s made some adjustments (mostly, I think, in pitch selectivity) that have rendered his pre-2008 stats pretty irrelevant. As for his predicted line? 300/380/430