Braves Farm System Ranking?
by yondaime4 on Sep 1, 2008 3:43 PM EDT
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PrintHi guys, I haven't posted here in a while but I just wanted to get a feeler out on the Braves system from the rest of the community. I follow the minors pretty closely, but for the most part the only team whose depth I have any real idea on is the Braves. Outside that I just know the top couple of guys in most of the other systems.
That said I just wanted to do this post to see where you guys think the Braves system ranks in comparison with other teams out there. Personally I feel like we are probably a top 10 team like last year (according to BA at least), but I could just be fantasizing on the potential of some of the guys. Are we top 10? Top 5?
Here are some quick thoughts on a couple guys and their possible top 100 rankings:
Jason Heyward - consensus most places is he is a top 10 guy, maybe top 5 for some people.
Tommy Hanson - Most people see him as a middle of the rotation guy (at least before the season they did) but he added velocity and command of his pitches and dominated (mostly) at two levels. Top 25 prospect doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility?
Jordan Schafer - Obviously the suspension hurt him, but he destroyed the baseball in August and his defense remained stellar for the whole season and his XBH tendencies remained intact. Some might say he is still 25-50. I think he'll end up falling past 50 somewhere till he proves he can do it for more than a month.
Julio Teheran - Injuries plagued him for most of the season but scouts still say he has one of the best arms in the low minors in the past few seasons. Not much to go on so far, but is very young and talented. Possible top 100 guys based solely on projectability.
Freddie Freeman - this dude exploded onto the scene this year as an 18 year old in the Sally League. He benefited hitting behind Heyward for most of the season, but he flashed more power and decent plate discipline than the young OF. He'll be ranked all over the place, but he has to make the 100 I think.
Tyler Flowers - I love this guy. Most people think he won't stay at catcher. I don't think it is because he can't catch (he can from the reports I have read) but simply because he has McCann in front of him. Maybe he'll be trade bait, but either way putting up a .289/.429/.490 line while hitting half his games in a pitchers park and playing a difficult position has to speak for something. He also has a 98/100 BB/K ratio on the season.
Gorkys Hernandez - We picked him up from Detroit in the offseason and he hit well early on but was never quite the same after pulling a hammy and sitting for most of a month. Lots of tools and has Furcal like ability (maybe with a little less speed). I dunno if he is still top 100 material or not.
Other guys - Cole Rohrbough, LHP; Kris Medlen, RHP; Jeff Locke, LHP; Brandon Hicks, SS; Travis Jones, 2B; Jake Thompson, RHP; Kala Kaaihue, 1B; Eric Campbell, 3B
I didn't mean to make this so long, but I just feel like we have a few good prosepcts and I get excited easily. What do you guys think about our system? Top Tier?
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Very good
A lot of high ceiling prospects to go with great depth gets you in the top 5 IMO. The guy that gets severely underrated is Hanson. He has proven he is one of the best pitching prospects in the game but has not gotten that pub.
The talent though is really with the hitters. I dont know many systems that can match Heyward, Freeman, Schafer, Flowers, Hernandez. And then there are guys beyond them with a lot of upside but question marks(Campbell, C Johnson, Hicks) who could leap frog into the upper echelon of prospects.
They could use a couple more pitching prospects beyond Hanson, Rorhbaugh, Locke, Melen, etc but that would be nitpicking. Has anyone noticed Craig Kimbrel? Power relief prospect who is dominating hitters. Throws high nineties with a nasty slider. Might be the ebst relief prospect in all the minors soon enough.
Underrated
Hanson has dominated at AA with a K-rate of over 10 per 9 and scouting reports indicate his stuff has improved to back it up with a fastball that sits 93-95, plus curve, above avg change and he’s flashing a killer slider. He’s definitely a top 25 prospect.
I also think freeman has been overshadowed this year by heyward and rightly so but he’ll get his due with the top 100’s roll out and he is planted firmly in the middle.
I realize this is slightly off topic, but why are people calling Heyward a top 10, possibly top 5 guy and yet nearly no one is saying the same things about Mike Stanton? Stanton is playing in the same league and leads him by a wide margin in slg% and OPS.
Is it the K’s? Stanton does walk more than Heyward, so at least he has shown he isn’t just hacking at everything. Dude has 39 HR’s now, is 6’5’’, 3 months younger than Heyward and is athletic enough to be playing CF and could be playing WR for Southern Cal right now.
I gotta think this is one of the best statistical seasons an 18 year old has ever put up in the minors, no? I missed the suggestion thread but I’d love to see a prospect smack down between the two…
4 BBs today for Stanton...
It’s too bad cuz they probably weren’t giving him anything to hit. I was really hoping for the 40th HR.
Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!
33% K-rate
I mean, that’ll throw up a red flag for anyone.
Also makes you wonder how many of his walks are IBB vs. real ones. If he cuts down on the Ks and shows he can hit good breaking stuff, you could be looking at a top 10 guy with his kind of power, but at this point, he’s not at Heyward’s level.
Don't forget the...
“unintentional” walks.
Definitely a guy to keep your eye on, but Heyward is a much more polished hitter. I don’t think he’s top 5 worthy though.
Comparison
Mike Stanton 463 AB 25 2B 39 HR 58 BB 151 K .294/.383/.613
Brian Dopirak 541 AB 38 2B 39 HR 48 BB 123 K .307/.363/.593
Be afraid, be very afraid.
I reject your reality and substitute my own.
by WayneCampbell08 on Sep 4, 2008 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Mike Stanton, 18 years old
Brian Dopirak 20. Not saying the parallels aren’t of concern, but I wouldn’t give up quite so fast
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Sep 7, 2008 11:14 AM EDT up reply actions
because they dont rank prospects on stats
Heyward has had a great year himself. He’s considered the better physical talent. Not mashing the ball out of the ballpark, but then he is 6’5 220 an thats the least of anyone’s concerns. Does it matter that Stanton is hitting for more power now, when everyone expects Heyward to catch up in that area as he matures. The much fewer strikeouts matter quite a bit.
When you project them down the road, and its tough because these guys are so young, Heyward projects to hit for power, avg, get on base, play above average defense, with above average base running. Stanton is a very good prospect though.
What makes you say that Heyward is considered the better physical talent? Stanton is the same size, has played almost half his games in CF, and was offered a scholarship to the premier college football program in the country to play WR.
Sure, Heyward may catch up to Stanton as far as the numbers go, but why rank him ahead of him right now? Merely because he was drafted in the 1st round and Stanton wasn’t?
Why can’t Stanton also project to all those things you mentioned down the road, when he is already doing it and (as I backed up in the first part of my post) he IMO is more athletic than Heyward?
The K’s are a concern, but it’s not like they are effecting any of his other numbers right now.
by The_Godfather on Sep 1, 2008 6:37 PM EDT up reply actions
USC baseball
Dude had a scholarship for baseball at USC not football.
by JFP on Sep 1, 2008 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
http://www.thefreelibrary.com/USC+FOOTBALL+NOTEBOOK:+STANTON+COULD+BE+ADDED.(Sports)-a0167464755
"There is a possibility USC could add another player to its roster next week.
Mike Stanton, a standout football and baseball player at Notre Dame High in Sherman Oaks, must decide by Wednesday if he will sign with Florida Marlins, who selected him in the second round of the baseball amateur draft.
If he does not sign with the Marlins, Stanton will attend USC on financial aid, which means he could play football and baseball under NCAA rules.
Although baseball is his primary sport, the football staff would like to convince him to play both sports this year and recruited him as a wide receiver-outside linebacker last season. "
I worded it wrong, I should have said USC recruited him to play WR for their football team.
by The_Godfather on Sep 1, 2008 7:54 PM EDT up reply actions
Opinion
It is your opinion that Stanton is more athletic than Heyward, but I don’t think that is the consensus opinion, which seems to be that Heyward projects better.
Heyward also has a MUCH better control of the strike zone. Much, much better. Regardless, numbers in low A aren’t as important as scouting, which seems to favor Heyward at least slightly.
But Stanton
has much much more power than Heyward, at least at this point.
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Sep 2, 2008 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
being 3 months younger is meaningless btw
years of developmental time matter, not months.
Tough call
The Braves system is tough to rate. You’ve had a couple of breakout performances (Flowers, Freeman, Hanson) along with some disappointing ones (basically all of AAA and some of the Rome/Mississippi pitchers) to go with some enigmatic ones (Schafer, G. Hernandez, D. Hernandez). Not having a first round pick means they didn’t get an especially high pick in the 2008 draft, and that hurts them a bit.
I think they’ll stick around in the top 10, but towards the bottom half, not the top.
Heyward is top ten, Schafer and Hanson are top forty, Flowers, Gorkys, and Freeman are top 100. The depth is pretty ridiculous though. The sheer number of #3/4 starters in that farm system is crazy and they have legitimate prospects at every position on the diamond and plenty of depth up the middle (Flowers, Hicks, Lillibridge, T. Jones, Schafer, Gorkys). Top ten is certain, something like 5-7 seems about right.
well...
The biggest flaw is the lack of starters with #1 upside. I guess they’ve got Teheran, but outside of him, I don’t think anyone has #1-type upside. I mean, I guess that’s also true of a lot of systems, and it’s not exactly a damning flaw. But I think its the difference between Atlanta’s system and that of, say, Texas, Oakland, and SF.
Sure, but how many pitchers in the minors project as legitimate aces? The Braves have one, very few teams have even that many, and no one really has two except maybe the A’s and Rangers.
Teheran, Inoa, Feliz, Bumgarner, Price, Porcello, Aumont, Parker, Jeffress, Chacin, maybe Cahill.
I can't help but notice
that on your list, only 2 of them are over 21. So either we’re in the midst of an extraordinary development of teenager super-talents, or a lot of those younger prospects will fizzle
www.loftylantern.com
Depends what you mean by "legitimate ace"
I infer from your comment that to you, it does not mean “average #1 starter,” which is somewhere around a 3.5 ERA or thereabouts.
I’d surely characterize more than that number of pitchers as having the capability to reach that level of performance.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I don't have an opinion on whether you're right
but aren’t both of you agreeing? He’s saying they’re 5-7, and you said they’re not as good as 3 other teams.
www.loftylantern.com
System rankings
I’d rank the top handful of systems like so:
1) Texas
2) Oakland
3) Tampa
4) Boston
5) San Fransisco
6) Atlanta
I could definitely be persuaded that the top three aren’t ordered correctly or that 4 and 5 should be swapped, but I’m pretty comfortable with the Braves at six.
Unless TB graduates Price or both of Hellickson/Davis I have to think they are still #1 with the addition of their draft class.
I sort of feel like the Braves should get the nod on depth alone over the Giants but I am a Braves fan so maybe biased. Sure Bumgardner blew up but Teheran has to be close on scouting reports/stuff alone and the Giants don’t have a whole lot after that to fall in love with in my opinion. In no particular rank:
Bumgardner > Teheran (slight edge but how far off is it really?)
Any OF you want < Heyward (this isn’t really arguable)
Posey > Flowers (I’m still not buying the Posey Kool-Aid but he has better D so gets the nod)
Big V = Freeman (it’s very arguable that Freeman will be ranked higher next year)
Alderson = Hanson (could be argued either way)
Even if you want to just match top 5’s against each other, I think the Braves is better. I’m not sure who would round out the Giants top 5 after those 4 but it really goes in favor of the Braves after that in my opinion with those 4 being pretty even.
Rankings
You know, sometimes I just don’t get rankings. At the beginning of the season, people talked of San Francisco along with Houston as one of the worst farm systems in baseball. And now, despite a lot of mediocre minor league numbers, they’re suddenly #5? I just don’t buy it.
Fans are fickle.
by Lunkwill Fook on Sep 2, 2008 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
There's a reason for that
Their two first round picks from last year have had great years, one of whom is now one of the very elite pitching prospects in baseball. They also had a very good draft, in which they shelled out for arguably one of the top two or three talents in the draft. They also made a big splash in the international market, and have had breakout seasons from players like Sandoval.
In other words, everything has broken right. They really show what smart moves, commitment of resources, and a little luck can do in a very short time. And to be fair, their system may have been bottom ten and in poor shape, but not at the Astros level.
Yeah, I guess I'm picking at nits
My view was more in the 7-9 range, which I guess is close enough.
No the argument is the same for all pitching prospects in the low minors. At every level, the talent gap gets smaller. It’s that way from HS to College, College to the pros and the same for each level of pro ball as you work up. Sure he has been absolutely dominant in A ball at 18 where all you need is a great FB but you can’t necessarily look at that line and say he will dominate AA or AAA or MLB. He will have similar success in high A more than likely but once he gets past that the real test begins. Until that point, saying there is a “huge differential” between he and a guy who is 16 months younger and has been said to have one of the best arms (stuff) that has been through the low minors in recent years is a pretty big exaggeration in my opinion.
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