How do you use John's book?
So, we're over halfway through the 2008, and after thumbing through John's book while giving old Mr. Brown a pinch, I was wondering how people utilize the book.
Other than bathroom material, I mostly use it as a big database throughout the season that I turn to when I come across a prospect with an interesting stat line or recent performance and I want a kind of bird's-eye view of him. I think that's what the real strength of the book is, you get John's own impressions, some background on the guy usually, and maybe a sentence or two on their tools or stuff.
I guess what I find least useful, or what I utilize least, are John's guesses as to how this or that guy is going to develop. I guess I find that somewhat interesting, but I never act on it (in my leagues), especially since half the pitcher forecasts are the "we'll have to see how he does at higher levels" variety.
Those of you in keeper leagues: are there any prospects you've jumped on based on John's write-up or recommendation?
I remember going after Tommy Mendoza, Jon Jay and Scott Sizemore based on John's recommendations. Since then I've developed my own means of identifying lower level guys and have relied much less on a single-year's performance, or John's recs (which are what led me to the above guys).
I suppose another part is that I don't usually read the book straight through BEFORE the season. I'll check on some favorite prospects right away, but I usually wait until in season. Because:
1) I like to see what John has to say about someone whose performance or stat line has caught my eye. Since John is usually non-aggressive and pretty risk-averse on really jumping on dark horse prospects, I usually see his commentaries on guys as a nice, middle-voice sort of common sense view of guys: this guy is an athlete, this guy sits in the high 80s, this guy has a long swing, etc. Very rarely do you see John really push a guy very few others are pushing, like Goldstein did with, say, Neftali Feliz, or Baseball America did with Nick Blackburn. I feel John almost never gives me the jump on this or that guy, but he does provide a sober voice to counter other folks' enthusiasms.
2) Also, while on the toilet, during the season, I'll come across a write up by John on a guy that is intriguing (usually concerning some lower-level athletic player) and then I'll go to MILB or wherever and check out their stat line, or look closer at their stat line. This year, I've moved towards Michael Tarsi, the big lefty in the Twins org, off of this method -- he has a superficially poor ERA in the MWL, but his FIP and components suggest a better prospect than first glance provides.
So, I'm saying, I pretty much get 90% of my use and pleasure from John's book DURING the season, and not beforehand. Sometimes I'll also dip into old ones and see if I can find common denominators on sleeper guys who became exciting prospects, or guys that became busts.
These two tendencies of mine have moved me much more in the direction of following scouting reports than following single year stat lines, and it has directed me towards watching certain stats categories for development or regression.
I wonder how many folks are similar, or how many have their own unique way(s) of reading or using John's book.
Who knows, it might even help John get to know his readers better.
1 recs |
17 comments
Comments
& not
with your fiery, cutting wit?
by gogotabata on Aug 9, 2008 9:19 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
ggtb
The beginning of this post was quite disgusting …lol
by casejud on Aug 9, 2008 10:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
nothing like reading a good book
while supersizing a number 2
by gogotabata on Aug 9, 2008 10:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
BTW
After forging on, bravely, through your post I agree with much of your analysis of John’s work though, shamefully, I have never purchased a book ( next year, i promise JS).
I will point out that it could be said he has pushed Jed Lowrie as a prospect farther than most and he’s looking pretty sharp at this point.
by casejud on Aug 9, 2008 10:29 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
bullish prospects
john is quite conservative in his sleeper/bust predictions. however, another guy he’s been higher on than anywhere else is SS Marcus Lemon, TEX. He’s doing pretty damn well for himself in A+ this year
I'll warm up with you anytime
by ufoboy90 on Aug 10, 2008 1:43 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah
Because of him I got Chris Tillman and Henry Alberto Rodriguez and Nick Barnese, all of whom are helping me alot
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Aug 10, 2008 1:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I use the book
to help me remember prospects…
It’s pathetic, I can’t remember much about any besides a few of the Tigers and their higher upside guys.
On that note, any advice for keeping track of all these guys?
by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 10, 2008 1:49 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Watch a clip
different for some but I feel like a guy becomes more real and memorable when i have seen them play even if it is just a swi8ng or two on youtube. Not always easy to do though.
by casejud on Aug 10, 2008 1:53 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
That makes sense
Thanks.
by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 10, 2008 2:40 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good website...
for me is firstinning.com
lots of up to date info, insights, and you can customize your own page to keep track of different prospects – both in the majors, and the minors…very, very useful stuff…you can search for a player by name, then add him to your “player tracker” (own page)...
by almantle on Aug 11, 2008 8:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
dynasty league
i jumped hellickson in my rankings quite a bit because of john’s recommendation this year, and i remember john being one of the first to hone me in on matt garza and kevin slowey, who both have worked out well….i’ve tended to hold onto some of john’s early writings as guys float to new organizations or develop later….one case in point is ryan ludwick, who john always touted as having the power skills if he ever could get the bat above the mendoza line with major league pitching….
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over expecting different results.
by biggentleben on Aug 10, 2008 3:04 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
I guess saying you use the book as reading material while on the toilet
is better than saying you use it as toilet paper.
by thejd44 on Aug 10, 2008 4:59 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Dynasty League as well
I play in a 21 team dynasty league where we have 40 man rosters, along with a salary cap and free agents. To win in our league the more young, cheap $1 contributors that come up through your minors the better your chances.
I have been using John’s book to help me rank and prioritize minor leaguers for 4 years now. Using the book I have been able to snag the following young players over the years in our Minor League Draft portion (mind you, there are some trades I have made to pick up picks and have traded players, but when you scour the lists there are a lot of wins here):
2005 – Conor Jackson, Daric Barton, Kendry Morales, Jason Kubel, Carlos Quentin and Thomas Diamond (reached here because I felt like I needed a pitcher)
2006 – Scott Baker, Andrew McCuthen, Gio Gonzalez, Jason Hirsh, Edison Volquez and Scott Elbert
2007 – Adam Lind, Clayton Kershaw, Sean Rodriguez, Brian Barton and Chuck Lofgran
2008 – Mike Moustakas, Jed Lowrie, Chris Carter (the Oakland A), Hank Conger, James McDonald, Desmond Jennings
Needless to say, after taking over a team that was the worst in the league, I am on the verge of the playoffs finally. Oh, the book is great for snagging prospects during “rebuilding” type trades too.
"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"
by BStal11 on Aug 10, 2008 10:14 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Me, too
I’ll run through the Braves guys when I get the book initially and maybe a few other guys I have in keeper leagues or have seen play or something. But I don’t view it as a book to read cover-to-cover. However, when it comes trade season or someone starts breaking out or whatever, it’s a great reference to have.
by mraver on Aug 10, 2008 10:56 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

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