Which OF has a better career?

by smk1363 on Aug 8, 2008 2:10 PM EDT

Carlos Gonzalez or Cameron Maybin?

I had this discussion with a friend recently:
Who will have a better MLB career?

Carlos Gonzalez or Cameron Maybin

Obviously Maybin has more upside, but he's struggled most of the season with a ton of K's and a complete lack of plate discipline. Gonzalez has less power and less speed, but is already "holding his own" so to speak at the MLB level.

Maybin (21 years old) in 333 AA AB's: .273, 13 HR, 42 RBI, 49/104 BB/K, 18 SB, .830 OPS

Gonzalez (22 years old) in 219 MLB AB's: .274, 3 HR, 19 RBI, 12/52 BB/K, 3 SB, .723 OPS

Poll

Which one?

1 recs | Comment 51 comments

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Comments

gonzalez

people tend to forget how great his tools are. his upside is near that of maybins, and despite how raw he is he’s still much further along then maybin. last year he was tearing up AA at this time.

I'll warm up with you anytime

by ufoboy90 on Aug 8, 2008 3:10 PM EDT 0 recs

please

can I get some explanations from some of you guys who have already voted

by smk1363 on Aug 8, 2008 3:41 PM EDT 0 recs

Gonzalez

He’s got great tools and a lot of power potential. While Maybin probably has better plate discipline and definitely has better speed, I think that Gonzalez is already doing much better and will continue to outpace Maybin in both the power department and defensively.

I also like the A’s for producing hitters better than the Marlins.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 8, 2008 4:44 PM EDT 0 recs

why on earth

do you like the As for producing better hitters?

It seems the only justification of that is the silly idea that the As are some all-knowing baseball geniuses.

The Marlins turned Hanley from a disappointment to a could-be MVP, turned Uggla from a Rule 5 castoff to an All-Star slugger, saw Miguel Cabrera become the best young hitter in the game under their watch, restarted Jorge Cantu’s career, and squeezed solid production out of OFs like Hermida, Willingham and Ross.

The As meanwhile have seen a bunch of guys just stagnate or lose it all together for various reasons (Buck, Hanahan, Chavez, Crosby, Johnson, Barton)

by nms on Aug 8, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up 1 recs

I think the A's have done a better job managing their farm system in the past

Hanley was an underachieving minor league player who put it together in the majors, yes, but I’ve heard a lot of reports that say that he was bored playing in the minors. Uggla wasn’t the product of the Marlins farm club, but a result of their Major league club, much like Cantu. They also produced 3 decent OF’s.

The A’s had their star 3B go down to injury (Chavez), a couple prospects that didn’t achieve immediately (Barton, Buck), a couple mediocre players (Crosby, HAnnahan and Johnson), and you’re willing to write them off after they develop stars like Jason Giambi, pre-injury Eric Chavez, Miguel Tejada and Nick Swisher? Hell, don’t the A’s deserve credit for Jack Cust if the Marlins deserve credit for Jorge Cantu?

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 8, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

that was

years ago. Yes producing a star DH, a star SS and a good 3b and a good OF are nice but going back to Giambi/Tejada is a LONG way. Giambi debuted in 1995! Naming four good hitters in 13 years isn’t really all that super (Ellis probably deserves to be included in the list of consistent position players the A’s have developed).
If you’re going off standards like that then the Marlins also get credit for Lowell, Derrek Lee and Castillo. Mike Jacobs kind sucks but he isn’t too much different from Cust so you could even give the Marlin’s some credit there.

And I don’t see why Hanley and Uggla’s breakouts coming at the MLB level are marks against the Marlins. Both DRAMATICALLY increased their bats, despite living in a pitcher’s park, when they hit the bigs. That is a ringing endorsement, to me, of an ORGANIZATION’S ability to produce hitting. Developing hitters doesn’t just happen at the minor league level. Hell, we’re talking about Carlos Gonzalez’s development, and he is at the MLB level and spent little time in the A’s farm.. so I don’t know why the amount of time Cantu/Uggla spent in the Marlin’s minors matters.

And sure, give the A’s credit for Cust. That doesn’t mean they are an organization whose strengths come from developing hitter. Their approach has ALWAYS been pitching and defense.
Even on offense the best thing they have done hasn’t been developing long-term offensive contributors but rather finding cast-offs who can give you a good year or two at the plate

by nms on Aug 8, 2008 5:35 PM EDT up 0 recs

You know

It could just be me being a sucker for Moneyball, but I just feel more comfortable with Oakland’s system as a whole. I think a lot of the A’s problem could be drafting (hell, the offensive players in the 2002 Moneyball draft were garbage outside of Teahen and Swisher), but my gut just says go with Oakland on this one.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 9, 2008 12:49 AM EDT up 0 recs

Teahen goes in the garbage catagory.

Ugh.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 9, 2008 4:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

It seems to me

That since Beane took control, the A’s have really struggled to develop hitters. I have to think that there is something fundamentally wrong with how they evaluate hitters, at least amateur hitters. On the other hand, under Alderson they produced a number of hitters, but no pitching whatsoever. If I have to pick just hitting or just pitching, I’d rather they produce pitching, but I really wish they could do both.

by ozzman99 on Aug 9, 2008 11:43 AM EDT up 0 recs

World Series

I think 1997 and 2003 are proof that the Marlins have a better system for developing talent.

by rutgersjpm on Aug 9, 2008 11:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

Bought

The Marlins brought in a ton of veterans and bought that 1997 World Series. I can’t argue with 2003, on the other hand, and since much of the same personnel is still in place and it was more recent, it renders the first point largely moot.

Frankly, I’d rather trust my prospects to the Dodgers system over any other.

by GuyinNY on Aug 9, 2008 12:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

so steal Logan away from the Dodgers

and stick him with the A’s. Then you get good Pitching AND good hitting.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Aug 9, 2008 9:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think the Dodgers do both.

Billingsley, Loney, Martin, Kemp, Broxton, Kershaw…

by GuyinNY on Aug 10, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

And White's probably in possession of the best eye for talent in the game.

Who else is as good an evaluator? Perhaps Stick Michael?

by GuyinNY on Aug 10, 2008 1:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

Stick Michael?

What year is this? 1995?

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 2:16 PM EDT up 0 recs

Last I checked, he's still a superscout for the Yankees.

I didn’t mean to refer only to farm directors. I meant talent evaluators on the whole.

by GuyinNY on Aug 10, 2008 6:31 PM EDT up 0 recs

Barton

Don’t you think it is fairly early to be writing off a rookie?

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 8, 2008 6:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

once again!

I’m not writing anyone off!
I’m just saying that the A’s aren’t really looking like gurus of hitter development right now and Barton’s initial struggles certainly don’t make one think that the A’s hitter development is superior.

I’m not saying he can’t be an MLB hitter.

by nms on Aug 8, 2008 6:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

Gonzalez

Potential 5-tooler, and is learning a lot at the major league level. Plate discipline and pitch selection has improved over the past few weeks, excellent defensively, and he’s hitting lots of doubles, most of which will turn into homers in a year or two. I’m worried about Maybin’s strikeouts.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 8, 2008 5:17 PM EDT 0 recs

Is there such a thing as a potential 5-tooler? I mean either you have the tools or you don’t right?

Where the relative merits of Joe Paterson and Daniel Otero are hashed out over knife fights and tea.

by RougeGorrila on Aug 8, 2008 6:25 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think he more meant....

that Gonzalez has shown all 5 tools, but he needs to bring them to the MLB level to be considered a true 5 skill player.

by Zabat on Aug 10, 2008 1:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

Yes

There is such a thing as a “potential five tool player.”

Since two of the five tools are “hitting for power’’ and ’’hitting for average’’ you could certainly show the ability to do so in the minors and yet while youre a young player only show the potential to do so in the majors for a while.

I see what youre saying, though. Its sort of implied that a young unproven player we call a five tool player is really just a “potential” five tool player.

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 1:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

Nms

You’re ready to call Barton and Buck busts already?

Overall though, I agree with you. Though they did develop the likes of Tejada, Giambi, and Chavez (before the injuries), they’re much better at developing pitchers rather than hitters.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 8, 2008 5:19 PM EDT 0 recs

No

I’m not.

I’m just saying that they aren’t really doing a good job in making OAK look like wizards of offensive development. I said that the A’s guys I listed had either stagnated or lost it all together. Barton and Buck are clearly stagnating, that doesn’t mean they can’t get their act together.

Florida hitters generally haven’t struggled like the A’s are seeing right now. Interestingly the most A’s-style approach guy on the Marlins, Hermida, is the most inconsistent hitter they have and his inconsistency mostly comes from his poor, passive approach at the plate

by nms on Aug 8, 2008 5:24 PM EDT up 0 recs

maybin

a lot of you are selling this kid low.

by god allah star on Aug 8, 2008 7:57 PM EDT 0 recs

maybin: "a complete lack of plate discipline"

Lets be clear, his plate discipline is a point in his favor.
He’s walked a lot this year, and every year.
.368: No one should be disappointed with that OBP
.333: Gonzalez struggled with this in AA last year

Go Jays

by providence bruins on Aug 8, 2008 8:32 PM EDT 0 recs

Protection

I think the high strike out rate has a lot to do with him being oft placed in the heart of the order. Maybin’s not a 4 or 5 hitter. In my opinion he works best in the 2 spot. Does anyone know of a website where I can validate this?

by rutgersjpm on Aug 9, 2008 12:06 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybin

He’s still one of the top ‘specs in baseball. I don’t get a lot of the hate for him.

by bucklin12 on Aug 9, 2008 9:43 AM EDT 0 recs

Gonzalez

his ability to play cf, before this season was questioned…but his play has been very impressive

by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 9, 2008 12:44 PM EDT 0 recs

Maybin

Will be a much better defensive OF than Gonzalez. I know range factor and other defensive metrics look favorably upon Gonzalez in center, but having watched him a fair amount I’ve been very disapointed in his jumps, and ability to run balls down in center. I don’t know if anyone remembers Jed Lowrie’s triple over his head in Boston last week, but being an Orioles fan I get the privalege of watching Adam Jones, and he catches that ball.

by Birdfan01 on Aug 9, 2008 1:35 PM EDT 0 recs

Gonzalez

has been beyond solid for the A’s in center this year. No offense, but you obviously have not watched Gonzalez enough to make a fair judgemen. Yes, he misplayed a tough ball in Boston, but I seem to remember Coco misplaying a similar play in that same series. Coco is IMO one of the best CFr’s in the game, but even he makes mistakes. These guys are human and are bound to misplay a ball every now and then. I have the priviledge of watching Gonzalez play on nearly a daily basis, and trust me, he catches the ball. Ask any person who has watched Gonzalez play regularly this year and they will tell you the metrics match the play. He’s been that good.

by JPShark on Aug 9, 2008 1:42 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybin

Carlos Gonzalez as a 21 year old in AA – .286 BA .330 OBP .476 Slg% .806 OPS

Cam Maybin as a 21 year old in AA – .273 BA .367 OPB .466 Slg% .833 OPS

Maybin is also a much better defender in AA, Gonzalez is solid, but will never come close to the range Maybin has, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Gonzalez at a corner spot in a couple years.

Maybin is also a threat to steal 30+ bases in the bigs, Gonzalez will never do that.

by The_Godfather on Aug 9, 2008 4:31 PM EDT 0 recs

Maybin much better than Gonzalez

Don’t understand the comparison. Gonzalez is good player in his own right is not on Maybin’s level.

Cameron Maybin’s comps to Mike Cameron is a clear misunderstanding of his skills and those that doubt his 7 tool skills are either fantasy owners that did not obtain him when they had the opportunity or just plain bitter baseball fans.

by bryeic on Aug 9, 2008 10:47 PM EDT 0 recs

Care to give us any real reason?

"With 16-year-old Dominican righty Michel Inoa in tow, Gio Gonzalez improving at Triple-A and lefty Brett Anderson carving up Double-Abatters along with Simmons and Trevor Cahill, Oakland’s pitching depthis officially the envy of baseball." - BaseballAmerica.com

by Syphon on Aug 9, 2008 11:13 PM EDT up 0 recs

There are many reasons

With no disrespect to Carlos Gonzalez, whom will be an above-average player in the MLB and possible multiple all-star caliber player, Maybin is a once-in-a-decade franchise-type player.

Maybin is a rare combination of size and speed that will highlight a draft class for the ages.

1. Age – Maybin is 2 years younger
2. Size – Maybin is 3 inches taller (maybe more)
3. Speed – Maybin has greater sprinting and game speed
4. Power – Maybin has greater raw power
5. Charisma – Maybin will draw more fans into the seats ala Evan Longoria

This debate will be settled in a few years when Maybin is a top 5 OF and Gonzalez is a top 20 OF.

by bryeic on Aug 10, 2008 2:33 AM EDT up 0 recs

Charisma?

Really??

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 2:45 AM EDT up 0 recs

Corrections:

Year and a Half younger. Two inches taller (not sure what that has to do with much). Charisma? Are you serious? Listen I love both players, but I dont think anyone right now can say either will be a lot better than the other. Hence the close poll.

by Syphon on Aug 10, 2008 3:09 AM EDT up 0 recs

How about a comparisson based on how well they play baseball?

Got anything there?

by mraver on Aug 10, 2008 11:51 AM EDT up 0 recs

Here you go

These numbers are when both played AA at 21 years old, Maybin this year, and Gonzalez last:

Maybin: 340 ABs- .274/.368/.465 13 HR 18/24 SB
Gonzalez: 458 ABs- .286/.330/.476 16 HR 9/14 SB

If you look at the numbers it is clear that Maybin has more power, more speed, and a more patient eye at the plate. Gonzalez had a higher AVG and more doubles, but keep in mind that Maybin’s numbers may be artificially low due to a terrible start to the year. When you add in the fact that Maybin is a good defensive centerfielder, and Gonzalez will most likely move to right there is no question- Maybin is a better prospect.

by Birdfan01 on Aug 10, 2008 12:50 PM EDT 0 recs

Hmmm?

From these numbers it’s clear that Maybin as more power? The numbers you bring show that Gonzalez had a slightly higher slugging percentage than Maybin. If you prefer isolated power, then Maybin has a 1 point lead. If you’re judging strictly by home runs, than Gonzalez has 3 more than Maybin, though if you judge by the rate of HRs per at bats, you’re right that Maybin hit 1 homer every 26.2 ABs, while Gonzalez hit one every 28.6 ABs – not exactly the most significant of differences. It’s possible that Maybin has considerably more power than Gonzalez, but these numbers don’t make anything clear.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 10, 2008 2:00 PM EDT up 0 recs

Right

I even buy that Maybin will likely have more power, which is why I initially didnt respond. BUT its certainly not “clear” from what was posted above.

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 2:17 PM EDT up 0 recs

Response

clearly you are forgetting to incorporate Maybin’s “Charisma Factor” into your evaluation

by mrkupe on Aug 10, 2008 2:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

If you could bottle them...

...which do you think would sell more: Cam Maybin’s “Charisma” or Jim Rice’s “Fear?”

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 2:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

Ok

Let’s say Maybin and Gonzalez have comprable power, the fact remains that Maybin gets on base more, is faster, and plays a better center. So even if Maybin doesn’t develop more power he is already the better prospect, but the thing is that Maybin is going to grow into more power. With his speed and power Maybin could be a 30/30 guy. As The_Godfather said: “Gonzalez will never do that”

by Birdfan01 on Aug 10, 2008 3:43 PM EDT up 0 recs

For onc he will never steal 30 bases

because he plays for the A’s not because he cant do it. Gonzalez could hit 30HRs just as easily as Maybin.

by Syphon on Aug 10, 2008 4:57 PM EDT up 0 recs

Gonzalez could steal 30 bases if.....

He attempted 60 steals

by Birdfan01 on Aug 10, 2008 9:41 PM EDT up 0 recs

Actually

I think Im not alone in saying Gonzalez has a lot of potential to increase his power…

As was pointed out above he outslugged Maybin at AA…

So… yeah…

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 5:46 PM EDT up 0 recs

He didn't outslug him

The stats from that particular year showed them having remarkably similar production. But the question isn’t who was better at age 21 in AA, but who will be a better baseball player. And about that, I have no idea.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 11, 2008 2:12 AM EDT up 0 recs

Sure, I'll buy Maybin's the better prospect

But not from the numbers you cited as you explained them.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 10, 2008 6:08 PM EDT up 0 recs

Context?

What are the park factors?

In my mind, Maybin’s a better bet due to his casting as a CF. I don’t like his contact issues, but I think he’s vastly underrated in these circles. I don’t understand why…

by GuyinNY on Aug 10, 2008 6:33 PM EDT up 0 recs

Maybin

and I don’t see it being all that close. I agree with the sentiment above that many of you are really selling Maybin short on his tools and potential…....and his charisma. ;)

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Aug 11, 2008 11:23 AM EDT 0 recs