How would you manage the A's farm system over the coming years?

by sagecoll on Aug 7, 2008 12:02 AM EDT Comment 83 comments

I know everyone has an opinion on this board when it comes to prospects so I thought it would be interesting to get your perspective on what seems like the biggest candy store in all of baseball: The A's farm system.

There are numerous options. For example, what to do with your second baseman---Patterson, Weeks, Cardenas?

Do you pull the string on Daric Barton who's been awful and injured this year while you have Doolittle and Carter waiting in the wings?

All of these are interesting questions. I just want to hear your answers.

So I'll do it like this. Here's the A's active lineup and farm system. You take this and give me the A's 2010 lineup.

OF
OF
OF

DH
SP

SP
SP
SP

RP
RP
RP
CL

C   Kurt Suzuki

1B *Daric Barton

2B  Mark Ellis

3B Jack Hannahan

SS  Bobby Crosby

LF  Jack Cust

CF Carlos Gonzalez

RF  Emil Brown

DH  Frank Thomas

Ryan Sweeney

Mike Sweeney

Travis Buck

Donnie Murphy

Rajai Davis

Eric Chavez

Wes Bankston

Rob Bowen

Chris Denorfia

Matt Murton

Gregorio Petit

Brooks Conrad

Eric Patterson

Jeff Fiorentino

Dan Johnson

SP *Dana Eveland

SP  Joe Blanton

SP  Justin Duchscherer

SP  Rich Harden

SP  Sean Gallagher

CL  Huston Street

RP *Alan Embree

RP  Santiago Casilla

RP  Andrew Brown

RP  Keith Foulke

Chad Gaudin

Brad Ziegler

*Dallas Braden

Lenny DiNardo

Joey Devine

Jerry Blevins

Kirk Saarloos

Dan Meyer

Kiko Calero

Fernando Hernandez  



C: Landon Powell, 26, AAA
Anthony Recker, 24, AA
Josh Donaldson, 22, A+
Petey Paramore, 21, A-

1B: Sean Doolittle, 21, AA
Chris Carter, 21, A+

2B: Adrian Cardenas, 20, A+
Jemile Weeks, 21, A- 
Eric Patterson, 25, AAA


3B: Jeff Baisley, 25, AAA
Jesus Guzman, 24, AAA

SS: Cliff Pennington, 24, AAA
Dusty Coleman, 21, N/A
Jason Christian, 21, SS
Nino Leyja, 17, RK


OF: Matt Sulentic, 20, A+
Aaron Cunningham, 22, AA
Corey Brown, 22, A+
Rashun Dixon, 17, RK
Jermaine Mitchell, 23, A+

SP: Trever Cahill, 20, AA
Brett Anderson, 20, AA
Gio Gonzalez, 22, AAA
James Simmons, 21, AA
Vin Mazzaro, 21, AA
Arnold Leon, 20, A+/MEX
Henry Rodriguez, 21, A+
Michel Inoa, 16, N/A
Craig Italiano, 22, A+
Tyson Ross, 21, N/A
Fautino De Los Santos, 22, A+ DL
Josh Outman, 23, AA
Michael Madson, 25, AA
Jamie Richmond, 22, A-
Travis Banwart, 22, A+


RP: Sam Demel
Andrew Carignan, 22, AA
Jared Lansford, 21, AA

1 recs | Comment 83 comments

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Comments

they've ignored the 3b position

in recent drafts, did not draft a player any higher than the 10th rd in the last 4 drafts

theyve aways drafted a middle infielder early with sub par results

crosby/mccurdy/snyder/quintanilla/pennington/sellers/horton etc

the group in 08 looks solid so far w/ weeks/christian/leyja/coleman…maybe they get lucky

future at 3b/SS is a huge need and didnt fulfill it yet through their deals so far

there is a possibility that carter or cardenas could end up at 3b but i wouldnt count on it

for SS i mentioned those 08 picks plus SS at each level Petit/Pennington/Sellers/Horton/Richard etc…i’m not sure any of them profile as everyday mlb SS’s..defensively good, but hitting is an issue

by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 7, 2008 12:24 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

It's not so bad to have a great glove, no hit SS

Especially with some of the ptichers the A’s have. The thing is, you need the rest of the offense to pick up that slack. RIght now, the A’s don’t have that. They might in a year or two though if guys like Sweeney, Gonzalez, etc. develop as expected.

by thejd44 on Aug 7, 2008 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

Cardenas has been promoted to AA, btw

by mrkupe on Aug 7, 2008 12:27 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Donaldson has been moved back to third, where he played in college, and Cardenas is playing at short.

C – Kurt Suzuki

1B – Daric Barton

2B – Jemile Weeks

SS – Adrian Cardenas

3B – Josh Donaldson

OF – Aaron Cunningham
OF – Carlos Gonzalez
OF – Ryan Sweeney

DH – Chris Carter

SP – Brett Anderson
SP – Trevor Cahill
SP – Gio Gonzalez
SP – James Simmons
SP – Vince Mazzaro

RP – Andrew Brown
RP – Ryan Wing
RP – Brad Ziegler
CL – Joey Devine

Very, very good team.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 7, 2008 12:48 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Double Check Those Relievers

RP – Street
RP – Blevins
RP – Street
CL – Ziegler

I think Ryan Wing is a Minor League Free Agent after this season. And, he’s Old – “Baseball Old”

by Colorado Fan on Aug 7, 2008 11:24 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Scary middle infield

I like Weeks and Cardenas, but to project them both in the middle infield might be the worst defensive middle infield since Hanley and Uggla.

by aap212 on Aug 7, 2008 11:39 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Donaldson hasn't been moved to 3d

He’s played one game there for Stockton, 22 at C. He’s a possibility though. I’d be shocked if Cardenas stuck at SS.

The A's colors are green and gold.

by mikeA on Aug 7, 2008 2:09 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Where I think they'll be in 2010...

First, the lineup … barring any more trades and working strictly with players in the organization.

C – Suzuki: .285/13/55
DH – Cust: .235/24/70 – one last go-round, add some pop, split time at DH with Murton.
1B – Doolittle: .265/16/60
2B – Ellis: .250/12/40 – yeah, I think Oakland will keep him around despite the prospects.
SS – Petit: .250/8/30 – great defensively, will learn to hit enough to stick if A’s have any patience.
3B – Cardenas: .260/10/45, 15-20 SB
OF – Sweeney: .290/15/60
OF – Gonzalez: .300/27/90, 15 SB, stays in CF, 1st of a handful of all-star seasons.
OF – Cunningham: .290/12/60, A’s loves him, will complete great defensive OF, becoming Byrnes-type LF.
C – Recker
OF – Murton: need a RH bat in off the bench, can DH & play a decent corner OF 2x/week.
SS – Pennington: hopefully we find something better.
1B – Barton: by ‘10, I hope A’s lose patience if he’s not panning out.

SP – Gonzalez
SP – Anderson
SP – Cahill
SP – Gallagher
SP – Mazzaro
RP/SP – Simmons
RP/SP – Eveland
RP – Ziegler
RP – Blevins
RP – Rodriguez
RP – Carnigan
CL – Devine

Demel could replace Carnigan. Either way, that’s one powerful pen after a solid albeit young rotation. Not a lot of pop throughout the lineup (Doolittle’s power will not have yet translated, but Carter is on the way by ‘10), but excellent and versitile defensively. Weeks, too, won’t be ready yet, hence Petit, who can’t be any worse than Crosby.

The most exciting part of this team might be the guys who I still figure to be on the brink: Carter, Weeks, De Los Santos, Demel, Bailey, Paramore, Brown & Mitchell. Keep in mind, guys like Lejya, Sulentic, Dixon (and the other ‘08 OF), Leon & Ross, and will at least be at Midland by then. Oh yeah, then there’s that Inoa guy. Not too shabby.

http://www.myspace.com/ryanmac10

by RyanFromBonas on Aug 7, 2008 1:06 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

That offense looks pretty shabby

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 10, 2008 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds fun

C: Kurt Suzuki
1B: Daric Barton
2B: Jemille Weeks
SS: FA, trade, or a player not in the system
3B: Adrian Cardenas
LF: Jack Cust (what?)
CF: Carlos Gonzalez
RF: Aaron Cunningham
DH: Chris Carter

SP: Gio Gonzalez
SP: Trevor Cahil
SP: Sean Gallagher
SP James Simmons
SP: Josh Outman (gets bounced in 2011 or 2012 for Inoa or FDLS)
CL: Huston Street (who sticks around)

Relief pitchers are so volatile, I just left em off. Oakland will have a good bullpen, I just don’t know who specifically will be in it (probably Jerry Blevins and H-Rod as a pair of really good setup guys).

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 7, 2008 1:09 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Outman over Anderson?

That’s an… interesting take.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 7, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really, not

I’m betting that someone’s gonna get bitten by the injury bug, and I’m also betting that Outman is going to develop very nicely. My leaving Anderson off was random (aided a little by his finesse pitcher label, but not much).

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 7, 2008 8:06 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

A's Fans Need To Stop Crying.....The Future Looks Bright:

The Line Up:
1.Jemille Weeks 2b
2.Daric Barton 1b
3.Carlos Gonzalez Cf
4.Chris Carter Dh
5.Sean Doolittle Rf
6.Adrian Cardenas 3b
7.Aaron Cunningham Lf
8.Kurt Suzuki C
9.Cliff Pennington Ss

The Bench:
Josh Donaldson C/3b/1b
Eric Patterson 2b/Ss
Ryan Sweeney Of

The Starting Rotation:
1.Trevor Cahil Rhp
2.Brett Anderson Lhp
3.Sean Gallagher Rhp
4.Gio Gonzalez Lhp
5.Vince Mazzaro Rhp.

The Bullpen:
Long:James Simmons Rhp
Setup:Fautino De Los Santos Rhp
Closer:Henry Rodriguez Rhp

What A Team

by JoeyO on Aug 7, 2008 2:13 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Who has power besides Carter?

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 10, 2008 12:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

prospects are nice, but when they become anything in the majors they will just get traded anyways….

by hotshotschamp on Aug 7, 2008 2:17 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Everyone's already giving up

on Buck?

by number_twentyone on Aug 7, 2008 7:39 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

+1

I’m reading all this and i thought the exact same thing. The guy played out of his mind last year in nearly 300 big league AB’s. He’s still hitting well in the minors this year and he was injured early on and played poorly as a result. And he’s just 24. Tough crowd.

Go Pirates!!!

by cool hand Charlie on Aug 7, 2008 12:48 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Response

Travis Buck is just Travis Buck. But all these other guys . . .they could grow up to be anything. They could even grow up to be Travis Buck!

by mrkupe on Aug 7, 2008 1:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Chris Carter

I read on BA I think that Carter while DHing and playing 1B early in the season was struggling with the bat but after a move to 3B his bat has really caught fire. Not sure if one has to do with the other but it is worth keeping track of.

by bunner on Aug 7, 2008 8:37 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

33 Games at 3B

10 Errors – but his bat is on fire over the past 33 games.

by gunkdog on Aug 7, 2008 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Most players hit better when they are not DHing

at least in the majors. Jack Cust has hit much better as a LF this season, for instance.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 7, 2008 4:18 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Isn't that because they frequently DH when they're nursing an injury.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 10, 2008 12:11 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And it's sorta like pinch hitting 4 times in a game

And pinch hitters generally do worse than normal, too.

by thejd44 on Aug 10, 2008 5:01 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I would bet...

Their 3B of the future isn’t in the organization yet. Probably the same for their SS.

by aap212 on Aug 7, 2008 10:35 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

A common exclusion

from all of these rosters (except JoeyO’s) has been Eric Patterson. While he’s a man without an everyday position, a 25-year old with a .900 OPS and good speed in AAA who can play 2B/OF I would imagine to be somewhat valuable. Assuming Mark Ellis isn’t re-signed and Cunningham doesn’t make it to the show until at least 2010, that leaves two position possibilities for Eric to prove he’s not Corey 2.0.

by Grudyfan on Aug 7, 2008 1:23 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Response

I think you said it yourself. He’s got some solid tools but the bat/defense combination does not profile particularly well at any position for the moment.

My guess is that he’s a 250-350 AB/year type of guy who has enough talent to play up into a starting position for somebody, somewhere over a 2-3 year period in his prime.

by mrkupe on Aug 7, 2008 2:25 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Could he supersub like Chone Figgins?

Heck, trot him out to 3B occasionally. He doesn’t have to be a wizard, just close to competent.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 7, 2008 8:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

He really can't "play" 2B/OF

He can stand at the spots with a glove in his hand, but that doesn’t mean he’s capable of doing it at the major league level.

I also don’t think he’ll ever hit at the major league level. I don’t like what I’ve seen from him, and I don’t think he gets more than 1000 major league at bats in his career. I think he’s the definition of a AAAA player. Donnie Murphy is a month older than Patterson, is about a bajillion times better defensively, and right now he’s OPSing .854 in Sacramento. Nobody (except me, apparently) thinks he can even stick as a backup in the majors.

by thejd44 on Aug 7, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Looked good in LF to me.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 7, 2008 4:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Have you watched any Cubs games this year?

He made so many mental mistakes out there in left field. He’s only a fill in defensively. There’s no way he should be playing in the field.

I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad

by thecoolest on Aug 7, 2008 5:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Huston Street

He wont be here after this year.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 7, 2008 1:38 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

SS/3B

Nobody thinks Cardenas/Donaldson can stay there? Why not?

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 7, 2008 1:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Pay attention

Cardenas is a 2B and people aren’t totally confident he can stay there. Donaldson is a catcher and people are worried about his bat this year, even as a catcher. The idea of slotting these guys at SS and 3B is ambitious at best, dopey at worst.

by aap212 on Aug 7, 2008 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

But from all scouting reports I've heard

Cardenas might be able to play third. That wouldn’t surprise me at all.

by thejd44 on Aug 7, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

about donaldson

he was struggling before he was trading to oakland. since the trade, he’s been hitting ridiculously well. i know, small sample size, but the dude is hitting close to .400 with an OPS well over 1.000. i think his early season struggles might have been a fluke, because he was always lauded as a very good hitter.

by guy incognito on Aug 8, 2008 1:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Donaldson at age 22

His full season stats for this year are now .271/.336/.451 up from .217/.276/.349 at the time he was traded.

For his pro career he is at .293/.382/.499

He could hit enough to play 3B or C, though it is not at all certain.

by jakarta on Aug 8, 2008 3:36 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'd let it play out

Cheap way out? Yes.

But you seriously can’t expect all these players to pan out.

Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.

by doublestix on Aug 7, 2008 4:15 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Of course not, but you hope

that for every player who doesn’t pan out, someone else comes out of nowhere and fills the hole… or that you have enough depth that SOMEONE will pan out out of a group of players.

Ex.: The A’s have three good 1B prospects in Barton, Doolittle and Carter. Odds are very good that one or more of them will be busts. However, odds are also good that at least one of them will be a good player.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 7, 2008 4:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, lets try

2010 Athletics

RF Travis Buck
1B Daric Barton
CF Carlos Gonzalez
3B Chris Carter
DH Jack Cust
LF Aaron Cunningham
2B Adrian Cardenas
C1 Kurt Suzuki
SS Gregorio Petit

C2 Anthony Recker
1B Eric Chavez
2B Eric Patterson
OF Ryan Sweeney

SP Brett Anderson
SP Trever Cahill
SP Gio Gonzalez
SP Sean Gallagher
SP James Simmons

RP Joey Devine
RP Andrew Brown
RP Brad Ziegler
RP Andrew Carnigan
RP Sam Demel
RP Dan Meyer
RP Jerry Blevins

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Aug 7, 2008 5:40 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Greg Smith / Dana Eveland

I could both of these guys being a useful lefties out of the bullpen over Meyer and Brown. Though, I wouldn’t mind seeing Smith or Eveland (or both) packaged w/ someone to land a 3B/SS

by Colorado Fan on Aug 8, 2008 3:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Probably, but Zonis's vision makes the most sense to me so far.

I guess Mazzaro could be a reliever over Carignan or Demel, but it’s nitpicking.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 10, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I still don't see Aaron Cunningham being better than Ryan Sweeney

For reasons I’ve explained before.

At this point, I don’t know if Buck will be better than Sweeney either.

And I don’t think Eric Patterson is in the organization in 2010.

by thejd44 on Aug 10, 2008 5:04 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

What about trading some of that pitching depth for a power hitter?

With the exception of Chris Carter and maybe Jack Cust (depending on how long you think he’ll stay with the As), their biggest hole seems to be a serious power hitter. Their best case scenario offensively doesn’t have any serious holes (with some solid options at the usual trouble spots of C and middle infield), but lacks much top-tier hitting. In fact, Carlos Gonzalez and Chris Carter seem like the best hitters they would have. Both of them are good players and good hitters, but you would hope a championship-quality team would be stronger. Why not deal one or two excellent pitching prospects for a hitter? The Rangers seem like a good bet, with Smoak and Max Ramirez possibly available, or maybe the Pirates might deal Pedro Alvarez now that they have Andy Laroche

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 7, 2008 5:57 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Heres mine

2010 Oakland Athletics by the end of the year. Mine is optimisim at its best.

1. J. Weeks 2B
2. R. Sweeney LF
3. C. Carter DH/1B
4. C. Gonzalez RF
5. R. Dixon CF (yes he’s gonna storm the league as a 19 y.o.)
6. S. Doolittle 1B/DH
7. K. Suzuki C
8. A. Cardenas 3B
9. G. Petit SS

SP1. Duke-R
SP2. B. Anderson-L
SP3. S. Gallagher-R
SP4. G. Gonzalez-L
SP5. T. Cahill-R

Backups:
C: L. Powell, J. Donaldson
1B/DH: L. Powell, J. Donaldson
2B: C. Pennington, E. Patterson
SS: C. Pennington
3B: J. Donaldson
OF: A. Cunningham, E. Patterson

RP: B. Ziegler-R/Long
RP: J. Blevins-L
RP: A. Bailey-R/Long
RP: S. Casillia-R
RP: J. Outman-L/Long

C: J. Devine-R

by AthleticsReign on Aug 7, 2008 6:46 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Optimism at its best

would include Fautino De Los Santos and Henry Rodriguez, not to mention a somehow miraculously healed Eric Chavez at 3B and Cardenas somehow developing into an average fielding, good hitting SS.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Aug 8, 2008 1:51 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Don't forget Arnold Leon.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 10, 2008 12:17 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Donaldson played 3rd in college, they’re simply moving him back there. He’s crushing the ball in A+ by the way.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 7, 2008 9:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

He's still at Catcher.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Aug 8, 2008 1:52 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cunningham

Why is nobody high on Cunningham? His upside is Aaron Rowand, .850 OPS guy. He’s very likely to develop 20 homer power as well.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 7, 2008 9:05 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

how the crap

does an ordinary LF have the upside of a good-gloved CFer.

by nms on Aug 8, 2008 6:14 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Wow

it’s an opinion man….take it easy. I think we are talking offensively here. There’s no denying that it looks like Aaron Rowand is the superior defender. I just got on this site 5 minutes ago to take a look at some of the new comments and I have seen quite a bit of negativity towards the A’s organization from you. Did they break your heart or what?? Let people talk, thats what this site is for.

by JPShark on Aug 9, 2008 12:38 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I don't think this was an offensive post. And his question is completely valid.

Although to be fair, Cunningham could probably also be ordinary in RF.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 10, 2008 12:19 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

I am a

Cunningham fan and think he is the future left fielder for the A’s. I think he could end up consistently hitting in the .290-.300 range, and I think you were dead on about the .850 OPS. He’ll be solid defensively in left as well. I haven’t given up on Buck yet, but I am going with Ryan Sweeney in the long run here. His power isn’t there yet, but I think its on the way and he has proven that he will likely hit for a very solid average. He has been around .300 all season and thats while dealing with a bunch of tough injuries (another which may have happened tonight after getting hit in the hand by a pitch). He hits the ball hard, and when he gets elevation he can hit it a long ways. He hit a monster shot today in Toronto. I’m going with a 2010 OF of Cunningham/Sweeney/Gonzalez. Donaldson is absolutely tearing up high A right now and if his bat pans out the way some think it might I could see the A’s trading Suzuki for a position of need around 2010-11. I am with the people saying that their 3B/SS may not be in the organization yet, although Cardenas may end up at 3rd eventually.

by JPShark on Aug 7, 2008 11:09 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

If Buck remembers how to hit

He will be MUCH more valuable than Sweeney. Buck would hit for average, get on base, and have much more power than Sweeney (not hard).

Sweeney is best suited as a 4th Outfielder in my opinion-a role that has seen extensive playing time on the A’s. He can spell all 3 outfield positions with + defense and a good average/on base bat, but no power, making him a good pinch hitter. Combine him with Patterson, and they’d make a hell of a bench.

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Aug 8, 2008 1:54 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Why does everybody forget Sweeney's age and that just about every scout seems to think he can/should develop power?

Most people called Travis Buck a 15 HR guy at best. I haven’t seen anything that suggests Sweeney can’t reach that. Buck is a year older and struggled this year. Sweeney is a competent hitter, even without the power that I have no doubt will come to some extent.

When you factor in defense, I think Buck is, at best, marginally better going forward if he can return to his 2007 form.

And I’d rather have Rajai Davis on the bench than Patterson. At least Davis can play defense.

by thejd44 on Aug 10, 2008 5:08 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fun ...

2B – Jemile Weeks ~ walks it like Ray Durham, talks it like Rickey Henderson
RF – Travis Buck ~ a hickey from Kiniche is like a Hallmark card
SS – Bobby Crosby ~ injuries should keep his contract reltively affordable
CF – Carlos Gonzalez ~ 2010 will be breakout season as premier CF in AL
3B – Chipper Jones ~ just the kind of HOF vet on career downside the A’s love
1B – Daric Barton ~ haven’t heard Ray Fosse so giddy over player since he coined the nickname “Huddy”
LF – Jon Zeringue ~ oh yeah, I went there … Jack Cust 2.0
DH – Greg Dobbs ~ back in the AL just to teach Seattle a lesson for nearly derailing a good big-league career
C – Kurt Suzuki ~ will be turning over the lineup like a madman

SP – Gio Gonzalez ~ Interchangable ace among the New Big 3
SP – Trevor Cahill ~ First of the New Big 3 to win 20
SP – Brett Anderson ~ Will hold Nick Swisher to 1-for-19 on the season
SP – James McDonald ~ Next big SP trade owed to the NL West so will be acquired for Ducsherer
SP – Kirk Saarloos ~ He’s due for one big season, will probably win 14 games in ‘09

CL – Joey Devine
RP – Santiago Casilla
RP – Aguido Gonzalez ~ a steal in the Ryan Sweeney for Brandon Waring trade of Dec. ‘09
RP – Brad Ziegler
RP – Scott Eyre ~ similarities to Alan Embree will land him in Oaktown
RP – James Simmons ~ great swingman will work way into rotation by 2112

by StickRat on Aug 8, 2008 1:23 AM EDT reply actions 0 recs

You are obviously not an A's fan (or your name is Ken Macha)

since you have the A’s for whatever reason retaining Bobby Crosby, AND batting him third! Chipper Jones would still cost too much for the A’s, and why would the A’s go for Dobbs when they’d still have Cust under cost control?

And Kirk Saarloos? WTF?

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Aug 8, 2008 1:57 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Haha! Do you LIKE anything about my A’s team? It was just satire. Although, I do believe Saarloos has a future in Oakland. And other than hitting homeruns, Jack Cust does little to justify being an A’s starter for two more years.

by StickRat on Aug 9, 2008 7:26 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The satire started strong but fizzled with Crosby and completely disappeared with Chipper.

One bright spot—I’ve no idea who Aguido Gonzalez is, but I hope the A’s trade for him…even if he (or she) is fictional.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 10, 2008 12:22 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Gonzalez

He’s a Venezuelan left-hander that came up through the Dominican Summer League last year for the Reds. He has thus far been dominant through Rookie Ball and Low-A, having yet to allow an earned run over 27 1/3 innings this year.

by StickRat on Aug 10, 2008 12:30 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sounds good.

[Crosby] "Guy that has driven in some big runs for the A's over the years" - Vince Cotroneo

by WaddellCanseco on Aug 10, 2008 3:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cust has been the A's best offensive player for two years

That’s a good enough reason.

by thejd44 on Aug 10, 2008 5:09 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Cust is hitting .211 with RISP this season. Not cutting it for a power hitter.

by StickRat on Aug 10, 2008 5:33 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hitting with RISP is not a repeatable skill

Its just random. If we look at the entire package he’s still been very good and likely their best hitter despite that.

Also, that’s what? 20 points off his season average? That’s par for the course for Cust. A .300 hitter batting .250 with RISP would be relatively worse.

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 11:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Then where does the term "clutch hitter" come from?

It isn’t random. It’s the mark of a truly skilled hitter to produce with RISP. Pitchers tend to throw their best pitches in such situations, so it tests a hitter’s ability to work an at bat for a hittable pitch. Good power hitters tend to hit well with RISP, which leads to high RBI totals. I randomly took five hitters off the Top 50 RBI leaders board, and all of them have RISP avg. equal to or greater than their season avg.

name – season avg. ~ RISP avg.

Bengie Molina .277 ~ .297
Brad McCann .305 ~ .311
Aubrey Huff .304 ~ .308
Carlos Beltran .274 ~ .279
Carlos Quentin .286 ~ .324

by StickRat on Aug 10, 2008 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

Clutch hitting isnt a big factor. In fact, it probably falls more along the lines of being able to perform as usual under stressful situations. Which seems to be what youre showing me despite what you said with those numbers above. No one over their career has shown an ability to consistently perform better in clutch situations to any significant degree.

RBI totals are completely unnattached to skill. They correlate to where you bat in the order and how guys around you perform. See Carter, Joe. A so-so player and supposed clutch hitter. He actually performed below average for his position some years with gaudy RBI totals. So an average corner OF would have had even more RBI.

Im not going through this, but this has been hashed out everywhere on the internet a billion times… hitting with RISP is just not some special skill. Its just hitting. The only reason people ever appear to hit for higher AVGs in those situations is because sacrifices dont hurt your average. So Huff that you list above actually bats worse with RISP than regularly.

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Clutch

Since you cited Joe Carter, I think it’d be instructive for you to look at his career totals. Carter was actually a significantly better hitter in “clutch” situations. Perhaps you should bother going through this, as clutch has been found to be a real, repeatable skill by people like Dolphin and James. It’s a minor skill, in the grand scheme of things, as the majority of AB’s will not be in clutch situations, and it’s a hard skill to detect anyway. However, this does not mean clutch is make believe. Rather, it is an important feature of a hitter, as a clutch hitter will do better in a highly pressurized situation than a non-clutch hitter.

Once more, and with effort… deep breath Clutch hitting is a real, repeatable skill.

P.S. Regarding Carter’s “below average” performance : his skill set was actually tailored to high RBI totals more than anything else. Please keep in mind Carter’s time as a CF, as he was a very good defensive OF, unless I’m remembering incorrectly. Without too prolific a strikeout rate, Carter successfully managed to hit for very gaudy power totals for his era (the 80’s/early 90’s) while maintaining a very respectable batting average. Carter’s performance with a runner on 3rd, in any situation, is unassailable, and moreover, it’s distinctly superior to his performance in non-clutch situations.

Getting back to the issue of Carter’s overall performance, I assume you’re using OPS+, which knocks Carter for his low OBP’s. It’s a legitimate complaint, but Carter’s job was to drive in runners. I’ll stop here, since this could quickly turn into the Jim Rice argument regarding the Hall of Fame.

by GuyinNY on Aug 10, 2008 6:29 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Ok, so this statement makes sense to you:

Cust is hitting .211 with RISP this season. Not cutting it for a power hitter.

What does hitting .211 with RISP in a season have to do with being a power hitter? The guy is regularly batting .230. That’s not far off what he does without RISP. Its a ridiculous argument.

None of it changes the fact that Cust has in fact been the A’s best hitter the last two years as the original poster said.

I disagree with you on the clutch issue – but you should note I wasnt denying that clutch exists – deep breath – I was denying that hitting with RISP is a special skill that hitters repeat. They dont.

To wit:
Joe Carter slash stats with RISP by year
1985 .242/.285/.371
1986- .292/.339/.443
1987- .246/.297/.377
1988- .291/.355/.551
1989- .274/.354/.464
1990- .268/.364/.432
1991- .268/.356/.470
1992- .279/.336/.536
1993- .273/.345/.513
1994- .311/.366/.590
1995- .229/.304/.344
1996- .254/.384/.507
1997- .263/.338/.468

There is too much variation here for it to be a repeatable skill. If you look at any hitter you will see the same wide disparity from year to year.

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

The "best guess" estimates of how much clutch skill is worth

is in the neighborhood of, at most, two runs a year.

It’s an insignificant skill, if it exists, and it certainly doesn’t warrant any adjustment to the player’s offensive numbers to account for it. If two players are virtually tied in offensive production, you might use clutch to break the tie. That’s really its only use in baseball analysis.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 11, 2008 6:56 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

How do you come up with such exact answers?

The very nature of “clutch” performance makes it virtually impossible to find, let alone quantify. But you’ve managed to do so to a precise number?

To begin with, it’s difficult to define what is a “clutch” situation – is a tie game in the 9th inning clutch if the team has won the division by 15 games? Is being behind by 5 runs in the 8th inning clutch if the bases are loaded and the batter is up? What is clutch anyway? Is it if the batter thinks the moment is crucial? The announcer? The sabermatrician? The guy at the next bar stool?

Furthermore, all of the statistics people offer to find “clutch” performance face the basic problem that they’re not repeatable. Even if we could come up with certain definable parameters for what constitutes a “clutch” at-bat, we have no idea what is good production for that moment. For example, if a player usually has a .900 OPS, is a .880 OPS in clutch at-bats good or bad? On the one hand, he’s doing worse when it counts than when it doesn’t. On the other hand, these clutch at-bats are probably understood as such by the pitcher as well, so he’d be more likely to face a fresh, elite reliever than a tired starter, a pitcher with a platoon advantage, tougher breaking balls. A parallel situation from the political world might be to note that if a Democratic Presidential candidate wins 75% of the black vote, on first glance that might seem like a decisive victory, but if one notes that Gore and Kerry won almost 90% of the black vote, then 75% begins to seem quite tepid.

No matter how you define clutch performance, though, or how you analyze it, it seems clear to me that a 2 run limit is unlikely. If you believe that clutch performance doesn’t exist, then it’s less than 2 runs. If you believe that clutch performance does exist, though, then even a single 3 run homer to replace a fly-out would amount to more than 2 runs. It’s possible that there are players for which 2 runs is their limit, but if one believes it exists, the ceiling is certainly higher.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 12, 2008 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Yep

Baseball is hashed out on the field, not on the internet. And with all due respect, I have trouble holding a serious conversation with someone who uses “RBI” as the plural of “RBI”.

re: Joe Carter, he was a CF for two seasons in 1989 & 1990, before he was traded to Toronto where Lloyd Moseby was the CF. (Barfield, Moseby, and Carter … oh yeah!) Interesting stat concerning those two seasons for Carter, his batting average was significantly lower than any other seasons in the prime of his career, yet his RBI totals were consistent. His breakdown of regular avg. vs. RISP avg.:

1989 – .243 ~ .274
1990 – .232 ~ .268

by StickRat on Aug 10, 2008 6:57 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

RBI IS the plural of RBI

Sorry.

Runs Batted In. How would you pluralize that?

Can you hear me all the way back there in the 1960’s?

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 7:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

And “culs de sac” is the plural of “cul de sac”. However, “RBIs” is traditional baseball grammar. Ever actually had a conversation about baseball ON a baseball field?

by StickRat on Aug 10, 2008 7:42 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Personal Attacks?

That makes sense. You made a ridiculous statement, but rather than admit you’re wrong you try to discredit me by attacking my credentials and try to make me appear foolish by attacking my grammar.

For the record, yes, I played baseball when I was younger and I am in between games of a softball doubleheader right now. None of which means I cant learn more about baseball and have an open mind. I dont have to defend the sacred faith against any Jamesian infidels on message boards across the internet.

Also, Im pretty sure either RBI or RBIs is acceptable. In fact, Im just as likely to use one as the other. I just take exception to your pointing to it as a reason you “can’t have a serious conversation with [me]”

I dont know who youre trying to impress with this crap but I assure you its not working.

by alskor on Aug 10, 2008 7:51 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well, looking at a 2001 AP Stylebook, not one from the 1960s, it does list RBIs as the only proper pluralization of RBI. (For the record, I’m sure James would take your side in that arguement.) Surely wasn’t an attack. Just a pet peeve. And softball ain’t baseball. Also not an attack. Just a statement … and a true one at that. Sorry to have upset you.

Thanks for the breakdown of Carter year-by-year. All decent RISP averages across the board, with the exception of ‘87. The Indians had a fantastic duo of Brett Butler and Julio Franco atop their order, which evidently generated a lot of runner-on-third opportunities for the heart of the order. Cust had two good months last year, but has otherwise been grossly inconsistent and has underperformed in every category with the exception of HR hitting, because pitchers are exploiting his willingness to chase bad pitches.

And, I confused Joe Carter and George Bell in my above statement about the Blue Jays outfield. Sorry for any confusion that may have caused.

by StickRat on Aug 10, 2008 8:23 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

My go...

2B – Jemile Weeks -> 20+ SB and .340 to .350 OBP
1B – Daric Barton -> .300+ hitter with lots of doubles
LF/DH – Pat Burrell -> Bay Area native
CF – Carlos Gonzalez -> 20+ HR power
1B/DH – Chris Carter 30+ HR power
RF – Travis Buck -> .380 OB
3B – A Cardenas
C – Kurt Suzuki -> .280 hitter with ~12 HR
SS – Gregorio Petit -> Good defense no pop

Bench
OF – Aaron Cunningham
OF – Ryan Sweeney
MI / OF – Eric Patterson
C / IF – Josh Donaldson
MI – Cliff Pennington

SP – Gio Gonzalez -> Zito esque curve lead to lots of ups and downs but effective overall
SP – Trevor Cahill -> Derek Lowe type
SP – Brett Anderson -> expecting good things
SP – Greg Smith -> goes on David Wells type control streaks
SP – Sean Gallagher -> control problems hurt him

CL – Joey Devine
RP – Brad Zeigler
RP – Henry Rodriguez
RP – Santiago Casilla
RP – Josh Outman
RP – Andrew Brown
Swing man – Dana Eveland
Swing man – James Simmons -> Blanton 2.0

RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!

by niallmack on Aug 8, 2008 1:28 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Ryan Sweeney

I wouldnt take Buck over him…at 6’4”/215, he’s muhm more likely to develop much more power than Buck, he blasted one yesterday in Toronto, and he’ll hit for a better average than Buck.

And Niallmack, Cunningham wont be on the bench, they wont sign Burrell (it be stupid anyway), and Cahill/Anderson wont be worse than Gio. Gio has worse command than both of them.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Aug 8, 2008 1:55 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

His swing is not geared towards power, and he has NEVER developed power

despite people constantly projecting him to. Buck has more power now. He hits more Homeruns, more Doubles, more Triples, etc..

facepalm.jpg

by Zonis on Aug 8, 2008 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs

Umm ok Nostradamus

Gio will be in his 2nd full year in the bigs in 2010 while Anderson and Cahill their first full season (I think). Not everybody sets the world on fire in their first season (see Homer Bailey, Phil Hughes even Greg Maddux)

A 4th OF gets a lot of playing time anyways Cunningham won’t be stuck there too much.

As for Sweeney vs Buck power-off the numbers don’t really support your point of view but you very well could be right.

Sweeney -> 1900+ minor league AB’s 34 HR and 130 total XBH for a .405 SLG
Buck -> 660+ minor league AB’s 12 HR and 79 total XBH for a .482 SLG

So in about 1/3 the AB’s Buck has 1/3 the HR but more than half the XBH and an extra 77 points of slugging. Even with this bad year Buck has the MLB SLG edge of .432 to .365.

And baseball-reference has Sweeney at 6’4” 200 and Buck at 6’2 205. Sweeney is 1 year and 3 months younger than Buck so he does have that going for him… which is nice

RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!

by niallmack on Aug 8, 2008 2:37 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs

Oh and also

I think by the time 2010 comes around it’ll be obvious that some of these guesses will be way off in either direction based on who does well in the meantime

RIVER CATS: AAA CHAMPS!

by niallmack on Aug 8, 2008 2:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs