Discussion Question

by John Sickels on Aug 6, 2008 9:55 AM EDT

Today is a travel day for me. I will resume the Top 20 Reviews tomorrow with the Tigers.

In the meantime, here is a discussion question for you.

Who is a better prospect, Freddie Freeman of the Braves or Logan Morrison of the Marlins? Discuss and support your position with facts and logic rather than invective please.

Poll

Freeman or Morrison?

0 recs | Comment 47 comments

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Comments

Freeman

I think he might be puttng up better numbers than Travis Snider did at the same age in Low A. Although I beleive Snider played in the MWL (tougher hitters league I think).

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 6, 2008 10:09 AM EDT 0 recs

Stats

2007 Snider: .313/.377/.525, 72 R, 35 2Bs, 16 HR, 93 RBI, 49 BB, 129 K (457 ABs)

2008 Freeman: .315/.376/.540, 59 R, 29 2Bs, 18 HR, 83 RBI, 40 BB, 68 K (422 ABs)

Very similar.

Just to be clear, I am not stating that Freeman is a better hitting prospect than Snider. Clearly what Snider has done in AA is very impressive. I am merely making a comparisons of their seasons in Low A at the same age.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 6, 2008 10:15 AM EDT 0 recs

Similar

...but Freeman has about half as many Ks. Geez, Snider strikes out a lot.

by aCone419 on Aug 6, 2008 11:34 AM EDT up 0 recs

Snider

Very similar numbers, but MWL is a much tougher hitters league than the Sally, so I’d say Snider’s performance was much more impressive.

by deezle on Aug 6, 2008 12:02 PM EDT up 0 recs

edit:

didn’t notice the disparity in Ks until I posted.

by deezle on Aug 6, 2008 12:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Freeman

I really see this as no question. I watched him a bit in spring training and was amazed by him. He’s got such a sweet swing (a tad long but that can be fixed) and the ball just jumps off his bat, plus he’s very impressive in the field. He’s two years younger than Morrison and has shown better plate discipline than Morrison had at the same level (and he was a year younger).

What really seals it for me though is their body types. Morrison is pretty near physically mature but Freeman has a ton of room to fill out and physically mature. That adds up to a lot more power in the future.

by was385 on Aug 6, 2008 10:25 AM EDT 0 recs

No question?

I don’t think you can say no question. What happens when Freeman doesn’t put up a .960 OPS in the much more hitter friendly Carolina League? Not to mention, have you compared Freeman and Morrison’s splits?

Freeman:
vs LHP: .237/.311/.452/.762 9/19 BB:K 5 HR
vs RHP: .337/.394/.565/.960 31/49 BB:K 13 HR

Morrison:
vs LHP: .359/.429/.515/.943 11/20 BB:K 4 HR
vs RHP: .354/.414/.554/.968 32/41 BB:K 9 HR

Morrison obviously has a much more well rounded approach, while he is 2 years older, the difference between the SALLY and FSL is a pretty big difference. We’ve seen countless sluggers move to the FSL and get swallowed up. Even though he doesn’t have the projection, Morrison’s splits are very reassuring, while Freeman’s are terrifying. I have to go with Morrison. He’s putting up better numbers, in an extreme pitchers league against much better pitchers.

by bucklin12 on Aug 6, 2008 11:10 AM EDT up 0 recs

terrifying?

His strikeout rate is not nearly bad enough against left-handers to be terrifying. The question is who is the better prospect right now, not what if one of them doesn’t perform at a higher level. As of right now, there is no question in my mind that Freeman is the better player.

by was385 on Aug 6, 2008 11:40 AM EDT up 0 recs

Strikeout rate

I never mentioned, or intended to imply anything about the strikeout rate. That’s fine, and SO rate is a hugely overrated stat to begin with.

I’m mainly pointing to the 100 point difference in every percentile category. There’s nothing impressive about a .762 against lefties in the SALLY. Maybe terrifying is a strong word, but that’s semantics. L/R splits are significant in the growth of a young prospect, and I’m not saying at all that Freeman won’t get there, but “as of right now,” he’s not. However, Morrison is there.

by bucklin12 on Aug 6, 2008 11:48 AM EDT up 0 recs

SO Rate

If Freeman had a hugely different K-rate against lefties than righties, that would be a sign that he is truly overmatched against them. Since it is not that huge of a difference, I consider it something that should be closed in time.

by was385 on Aug 6, 2008 1:59 PM EDT up 0 recs

No question because...

You think it’s no question because you watched one of them in spring training? Ugh. You sound like people who defend Derek Jeter’s defense by saying, “I watch him every day.”

by aap212 on Aug 6, 2008 2:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

oh sorry

for actually having some first-hand knowledge of one of the players. I should have just used stats and stats alone to completely make my opinion, because that is much better. I used stats to back up my point of view as well as my own experience. Give me a break.

by was385 on Aug 6, 2008 2:54 PM EDT up 0 recs

Welcome to the minor leagues

What people see actually matters here just as much as stats. Embrace both sides of the baseball universe: statistics and scouting.

Oh, and check your sample size on the “can’t hit lefties” argument… it looks like you’re using around 100 PA here, which means Freeman could be getting unlucky.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 7, 2008 1:20 AM EDT up 0 recs

Carolina League

1) First time I’ve ever seen the Carolina League referred to a hitter friendly place. Especially Myrtle Beach, where Freeman will theoretically be playing.

2) A .763 OPS against LHP from an 18 year old Lefty is hardly terrifying. Its actually mildly encouraging, though you’d like to see the gap close.

3) Morrison’s statistical advantage is completely wrapped up in his BA. I don’t think he is really a .350 hitter, so I am mildly concerned about the decline in power.

Both kids are good, but as a Braves fan, I’ll take Freeman. I think he has the higher ceiling.

by aCone419 on Aug 6, 2008 11:50 AM EDT up 0 recs

Actually

Upon looking it up, Jupiter is astounding harsh on homer numbers, so throw out that concern about the power decline. I’d still take Freeman as a Braves guy, but it is really a toss up.

by aCone419 on Aug 6, 2008 11:58 AM EDT up 0 recs

Right about Jupiter

Morrison has actually increased his slugging pct. His doubles are at 34 through 401 while I believe he had 22 in 450 ab’s last year. He has about 9 fewer hr’s than he did last hear in about 50 fewer ab’s and he has 3 over the last week and a half. He has improved his walk right, cut his K rate and had a huge jump in average. I don’t think these 2 are as far apart as many want to make them.

by slickwdb on Aug 7, 2008 7:26 AM EDT up 0 recs

Jupiter,

I was about to say the same thing. Morrison’s doubles will eventually become HR’s. I believe Morrison is the better prospect now, and much of this discussion hinges upon Freeman’s continued development in A+, AA, etc…

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Aug 7, 2008 5:15 PM EDT up 0 recs

Freeman

Of course Freeman is an amazing prospect, and .763 against lefties isn’t bad at all when relative to league average. But a 100 point gap across the board is very disconcerting, and it’s something he’ll have to work on a lot. Morrison’s splits are very encouraging, while Freeman’s are not. That’s all I’m saying. Just wanted that to be out there, as the assumption is that “there’s not even a question,” as to who’s the better prospect. I think in the end, this is a toss up, but there are some interesting stats out there.

by bucklin12 on Aug 6, 2008 12:01 PM EDT up 0 recs

Agree

I agree that “there’s not even a question” is a silly thing to say. Both players look quite nice.

I just want to say that the splits issue is more of a point in Morrison’s favor than a demerit for Freeman. For the latter it isn’t really a concern at this stage of his development, but more of something to keep an eye on for the future.

by aCone419 on Aug 6, 2008 12:05 PM EDT up 0 recs

No question...

...that i think there is no question for you to say there is no question that he was silly for saying there was no question that Freeman is a better prospect.

Do you know how HUGE the 2 years of difference in these 2 players ages is/are? Its like WAY more telling historically than a very minor splits issue.

It can be argued that Morrison isn’t in Freeman’s LEAGUE because one is 18 and the other 20.

by casejud on Aug 7, 2008 2:29 AM EDT up 0 recs

Uh, what?

That first sentence doesn’t really make any sense, but I think you are saying that I am crazy for not agreeing that “there is no question.” Which is silly, considering polling is hovering around 50/50 on these guys. There obviously is no consensus here, and thus there is some question.

Morrison is two years older, true, but he is a league higher, thus making only a one year difference on the age track. Additionally, he is having a better season.

As for the splits, I don’t know why you mention them, since I was trying to dismiss them myself. I prefer Freeman myself, so your invective is puzzling to me.

by aCone419 on Aug 7, 2008 9:54 AM EDT up 0 recs

Uh, if nobody...

...says you are crazy but you come up with that yourself then maybe you are worried that you are crazy.

EDon’t take everything so personally. I can respond to the general argument being made not just yours.

Even if 75 percent of people thought Morrison was a better prospect on here that wouldn’t make it so.

the growth potential of a guy who was in the Sal last year (Morrison) and turned 20 while Freeman was there and turns 19 is kinda being glossed over. Its HUGE. Especially when the younger guy has more power and K’s less.

Freeman loks like a better prospect to me, no question. Only one half of the 50/50 can be right sometimes Pal.

by casejud on Aug 7, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Not the point

Whether Freeman is the better prospect, and whether Freeman is the better prospect “without question” are two separate issues. The mere fact that people are coming down on both sides of the fence in fair equal numbers makes it a question. That half of them will end up being wrong is immaterial.

I wasn’t taking it personally; I was perplexed.

by aCone419 on Aug 7, 2008 2:51 PM EDT up 0 recs

Sorry

The whole thing wasnt adressed to you so dont take the “reply to poster” thing so literally. i also didnt say there was no question for others…there obviously is. I think what Freeman is doing is extremely rare. Guys who have been one of the best hitters in the SAL at age 18 are almost non-existent and literally ALL who were even decent hitters at age 18-19 have had major league careers.

Though I admit that Morrison’s season at age 20 in FSL is pretty darned close in uniqueness…moreso than I thought originally. Maybe its closer than I think but I’d take Freeman and wouldn’t look back if i had to pick…no question or, maybe not MUCH question.

by casejud on Aug 7, 2008 6:36 PM EDT up 0 recs

The LHP lines are misleading

The entire disparity is BA.

Yes, I know BABIP is something that hitters have control over, and I’m sure it’s not all just Freeman being hit-unlucky. But a 1:2 BB:K rate is encouraging. He’s making contact, and he’s still hitting for power (witness the .215 ISOP, a bit better than Morrison’s FWIW).

I haven’t seen either play nor read any scouting reports, but just based on same-level or same-age years, Freeman seems to have a clear performance advantage. He’s got further to go, but he’s definitely off to a strong start.

That said, this is a breakout year for Morrison, and it’d be pretty hard to post a better line than he has this year. He doesn’t appear to have any holes in his game (although I guess you could say it’d be nice to see a few more of his hits go for extra bases), and if I was a Marlins fan, I’d be pretty excited.

Based on the numbers alone, I think I go with Morrison. But they’re both very good prospects.

by mraver on Aug 6, 2008 7:03 PM EDT up 0 recs

Also, we're talking about 93 ABs

Freeman’s .762 OPS against lefties was over less than 100 ABs. It might be a concern, but not too serious of one.

One other minor point is that both have been heating up recently: Since the All-Star break Freeman’s OPS went up from .824 to 1.033. Morrison’s went up from .881 to 1.061. If they keep up anything approaching this pace, then their stats could look even better by the end of the year

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 7, 2008 6:09 PM EDT up 0 recs

I love them both

ProjectProspect.com - Sullivan10x@yahoo.com

by sully10x on Aug 6, 2008 11:59 AM EDT 0 recs

morrison

I like them both too. Morrison’s numbers at same age not as good but he has really stepped up this year. it is all just a question of him doing what he is doing in a tough pitcher’s/higher level league. Next year could completely change my opinion. Some of it is the splits, some of it the doubles power in Florida. But they both would be nice to have. Freeman is still available in my fantasy league. I already have morrison, so maybe I will have them both.

A lot iof guys still available in my league. Brett Anderson. Freeman. Alderson. Bumgarner. Chacin. Salome and Sandoval. Javy marte. Hellickson. neftali Soto. Ben Revere. I actually like david Huff, too. I know, a soft-tosser, but nice k rate in triple A.

OK, going far afield here. I picked up Morrison last week and may go for Freeman next.

by wobatus on Aug 6, 2008 1:34 PM EDT up 0 recs

I'd take Bumgarner over either one

He’s putting up some crazy-good numbers, and the Giants are nothing if not good at developing young pitching.

by mraver on Aug 6, 2008 7:04 PM EDT up 0 recs

Foppert, Ainsworth, Williams, should I keep going?

They do an average job, Oakland does the best job in my opinion…

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Aug 7, 2008 5:18 PM EDT up 0 recs

Love

The G’s gertting credit for “defeloping” Tim Lincecum as well. With that 62 Innings in the minors. Look, I’ll give em credit but mostly for DRAFTING him. What genious that took eh? Never question the genious of the scouts…lol

by casejud on Aug 7, 2008 6:38 PM EDT up 0 recs

Whiskey Tango Foxtrot?

Who wins in a fight between two young, under-publicized first basemen? A highly touted pitcher! Take that!

by aap212 on Aug 6, 2008 7:10 PM EDT 0 recs

Heh

Five bucks to the first person who manages to turn this into a discussion about a Yankee prospect versus a Red Sox prospect.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 7, 2008 1:21 AM EDT up 0 recs

Jed Lowrie

looks like a HELL of a big leaguer and his defense is NOT A PROBLEM!

Many, many fools declared that it would be and that includes Kevin Goldstein. Before you guys get all excited and start coming to KG’s defense because of his “accomplishments” and “professionalism” or whatever. I still think he’s kinda a fool as wel as the scouts he supposedly spoke to that said Jed Lowrie couldn’t play a decent big league SS.

i said he’d be kinda like Carlos Guillen. We’ll see if he’s that but so far, so good.

by casejud on Aug 7, 2008 2:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

Well...

1) KG said his defense MIGHT be a problem. A rational person talking about prospects has to talk a lot about maybes.

2) If you had worked in a Yankee prospect, demondeaconsbaseball would have given you five bucks.

by aap212 on Aug 7, 2008 10:32 AM EDT up 0 recs

More than a maybe

KG was adamant that Lowrie was not a SS at the MLB and would have to move to 2nd or 3rd. I believe the exact quote was:

he’s just not a big league shortstop, he’s a second baseman

by aCone419 on Aug 7, 2008 11:35 AM EDT up 0 recs

Thank you

That was more accurate and for KG…inacurrate.

by casejud on Aug 7, 2008 12:40 PM EDT up 0 recs

+1

For the pro-Lowrie comments. And thanks for not mentioning a Yankee….

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 7, 2008 1:47 PM EDT up 0 recs

NP

Keep your five bucks DDBB :-) Many, many Lowrie dumbassses on here yes. Nobody EVER appologizes for being stupid either.

by casejud on Aug 7, 2008 6:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

Hmm

Freddie Freeman = Adrian Gonzalez

Logan Morrison = Justin Morneau

Done & done. Both great.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 7, 2008 9:19 AM EDT 0 recs

Nah

Freddie Freeman = Adrian Balboa

Logan Morrison = Justin Timberlake

Done & done. Both Ridonkulous

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 7, 2008 12:39 PM EDT up 0 recs

I think you might be overrating them a bit...

I can see a bit more of Derek Lee in Morrison (good avg, great percentages, solid power). I think Freeman is more Morneau (40 hr potential), but he won’t hit for as high in terms of average (Morneau’s .330+ performance was a fluke in my opinion).

"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree

by JT12340 on Aug 7, 2008 5:22 PM EDT up 0 recs

age

Age is overrated as a factor when you are not comparing apples to apples especially.

Morrison is hitting in a much tougher environment. That counts for a lot with me. I f he were 23, or repeating a league, that is one thing. he ain’t. he is young for his league.

Look, for example, at Chase Utley. He had merely a decent, some might say mediocre year, as a 22 year old in FSL, coming out of UCLA. Going solely by age, Freeman is far better than Utley. Ryan Howard put up ok numbers in the SALLY at 22. BAd comp, i know, but do we think Freeman will be lights out compared to Howard?

Yes, age matters. It matters a lot. But if anyone thinks Freeman is so much better just because he is 2 years younger and putting up nice numbers in the SALLY (not quite as good i’d say), then they are overweighting the age factor.

by wobatus on Aug 7, 2008 11:41 AM EDT 0 recs

The crucial thing with Utley and Howard

is that they dramatically improved from that point. I think there’s a reasonable argument that Morrison and Freeman are significantly better than Utley and Howard were as 20 and 18 year olds. There is, however, almost no chance that they will improve anywhere close to as much as Utley and Howard did since then

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Aug 7, 2008 6:12 PM EDT up 0 recs

Rome

Rome is not a good hitters park, all the braves parks are good pitchers parks. Even if the league favors hitters more than the FSL but that doesnt mean Freeman is playing in favorable conditions. Freeman has a home OPS of .873 and a road OPS of .943. Pretty much the whole difference in OPS is from his slugging percentage which jumps .061 on the road. Heyward’s slugging jumps .115 on the road.

The one thing I really like about Freeman is that he has continually got better as the season went along. Post all star break his stats look a lot like Morrison’s. Freeman wont put up the same kind of stats at Myrtle Beach as it is one of the worst hitters parks anywhere, but he is 2 years younger than Morrison. If he spent 2 years at High A and went through the level at the same age I think he would put up monster stats. Both really should have been promoted around the all star game to see what they can do at the next level.

by cajunrevenge on Aug 7, 2008 12:16 PM EDT 0 recs

age

and morrison improved dramatically from Sally to Fla. St league. That’s the point. he is young enough that the dramatic improvement could be real. There’s just noway someone can say Freeman is a dead lock better than Morrison because he is 18 in SALLY with good numbers. Freeman is very impressive and may be better bet. I don’t think it is written in stone.

Here’s an off the cuff comp for Morrison: Olerud.

by wobatus on Aug 8, 2008 1:31 PM EDT 0 recs