Giant Leap?
by camwoody on Aug 4, 2008 4:00 PM EDT
23 comments
It wasn’t long ago that calling the Giants’ farm system barren and devoid of Major League talent was as accepted as… well something that is widely accepted. Everybody in the system was seemingly old for their respective levels and the Giants tendency to punt draft picks for old past-their-prime players was only adding to the ineptitude of the organization. That, seemingly, has changed.
Enter the off season of 2008-2009 and we will see a Giants farm system with a new influx of talent at a number of positions and some once forgotten prospects that have crept their way back into prospect hounds’ collective consciousness. I give you a smattering of the best the Giants have to offer.
C- Buster Posey (Unsigned)- If he signs he has the chance to be the Giants’ top prospect without even playing an inning of professional ball. He is polished behind the plate and should pick up game calling rather quickly. His bat, which some people are not sure will provide much power, is maybe the best I have seen in college baseball. His swing is short and compact, he doesn’t strike out all that much and it is terribly difficult to argue with his career line at FSU. 398/.493/.626, 33 hr, 127w/101k.
C/ 1b- Pablo Sandoval (AA)- Once he looked like another Giants prospect who couldn’t walk and struck out too much but no things have changed a bit. After tearing up the Cal League, a hitter’s paradise, he moved to the Eastern League and to Dodd stadium, the place where hitting prospects go to die. Well, in his short time there the portly switch hitter has killed AA pitching and resurrected his prospect status. He now figures to have a shot at backing up Molina in 2009 if not this September.
1b- Angel Villalona (A)- I won’t bore you rehashing all the talk of his enormous potential but I will say that a kid who is nearly 3 years below the average age for his league and who is holding his own while flashing crazy power is nothing to sneeze at.
1b- Travis Ishikawa (AAA)- The Giants once had high hopes for the smooth fielding left masher but after a number of injuries and a million strikeouts his chance seemed all but gone. This year, however, he has been healthy and cut down on his strikeout while hitting the cover off of the ball in Connecticut and Fresno. Is he for real? I am not sure but if he is it is like finding a $20 in the pocket of some old jeans.
OF- Nate Shierholtz (AAA)- Much has been made of his inability to lay off bad pitches but he has hit well in Fresno and has been doing well against international competition for Team USA. The Giants don’ exactly have a dearth of outfielders but if Nate can hit for similar average and power in the bigs he may make Winn expendable.
SP- Madison Bumgarner (A)- Young for his league. Mowing down SAL hitters. May be promoted to San Jose before the season is out. One of the best pitching prospects in the game.
SP- Tm Alderson (A+)- See Bumgarner.
Others of mention: Connor Gillespie (unsigned), Brandon Crawford (unsigned), Eddie Martinez Esteve(AA), Henry Sosa (A), Raphael Rodriguez(instructional league soon), Wendell Fairley (AZL).
I know many of you non-Giants fans probably feel differently about these players. I would love to hear why I am wrong. So where do these players put the Giants in the grand scheme of farm systems?
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maybe middle of the pack
if they get those top 4 picks from 2008 signed, then the system would be much better off than it is now.
Other comments:
I’m not sure Eddie Martinez Esteve is still a prospect. He’s had injuries that held down his progress, but he in AA for the 3rd time and still isn’t producing much in the way of power (I know, Dodd sucks, but only 5 homers this year? Pablo has more than that since his promotion.)
The system still doesn’t have much player depth above A ball (especially on the infield), which is a big problem for a big league team that might have the least productive infield in all of baseball.
Nick Noonan has a decent chance of becoming a good major league player.
Also, I like what the Giants have been able to produce in the bullpen: Wilson, Hinshaw, Romo, Matos are all young guys who are likely to contribute for a good while at the major league level. Sadler is another guy who will contribute if he puts it all together. Merkin Valdez is another power arm who would contribute if he was able to stay healthy.
Overall, it seems that in the past couple/few seasons the Giants Brass has made more of an effort to draft/sign higher ceiling players, especially in the most recent draft and Rodriguez signing. That’s a good sign for Giants fans, but there’s still a lot of work to be done and money to be spent to make it a top 10 system that can produce (planer AND pitching) assets at the major league level on a more regular basis
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 4, 2008 4:39 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Yeah I forgot Noonan
I still think that the upside of all of these players places the Giants a little higher than middle of the pack. There are not many teams that can say they have two potential teenage studs at SP and two studs at catcher.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on Aug 4, 2008 4:47 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Reputation nicked?
I have lost a little confidence in Nick Noonan based on his very poor K/BB ratio this season. His swing looks good to me, but I think the ratio of power to strikeouts to walks is an important evaluative tool—and not one that works in Nick’s favor.
by sharksrog on Aug 9, 2008 3:24 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
“player” not “planer”
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 5, 2008 7:05 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Middle of the pack?
I realize you prefaced your middle-of-the-pack comment by saying you weren’t including the four top 2008 draftees, only one of whom is signed (and none of whom were signed when you made your post). But middle of the pack?
If you’re talking depth-wise, I would agree with you. But I evaluate a system based on its likelihood of developing superstars and stars, with some consideration given to the depth players. I think having two exciting young pitchers in Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson - a potential superstar and a potential star - alone makes the Giants farm system decent. Throw in the two Dominican signees, pitcher Henry Sosa, Pablo Sandoval, Wendell Fairley and Nick Noonan, and the Giants probably were a bit above middle-of-the-pack even before their 2008 draft. If they merely sign Buster Posey in addition to the recent signing of Conor Gillaspie, I think they get pretty close to top five.
by sharksrog on Aug 9, 2008 3:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, don't everybody give a reason for your vote all at once.
Fuck I should have saved myself the trouble and just posted the goddamned poll.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on Aug 4, 2008 6:04 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
post it at MCC
Proud adopted parent of future big league slugger Thomas Neal
by nostocksjustbonds on Aug 4, 2008 6:10 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I would but I think we have talked about it quite a bit over there (don't you think?). Thanks for the suggestion though.
I am Cameron Wood and this is my son and business partner CW Culberson.
by camwoody on Aug 4, 2008 6:13 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Response
Assuming everybody gets signed . . .it’s not a bad system, but not one of the very best ones either. A lot of their talent is very young and in some cases very raw, so the bust potential with this group is very high. Given the number of high drafts picks the Giants have had over the last couple of years they would’ve been hard-pressed NOT to make the system interesting again.
Off the top of my head, it probably rates somewhere between 6 and 8. They’ve got some other guys who might get to add something to a major league team someday . . .all the finesse pitchers in the low minors (Snyder, English, Tanner, somebody else I can’t remember). Nick Noonan offers a somewhat intriguing bat if he can refine his approach. Charlie Culberson has been a little overmatched this year but is a potential utility guy.
by mrkupe on Aug 4, 2008 6:30 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Culberson
Subtract his dismal start in April, he is hitting .274.
by StickRat on Aug 4, 2008 9:44 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Really?
That seems like some pretty faint praise; subtract a month’s worth of terrible at bats and he is decent?
Culberson was a reach on draft day, and the word was the Giants took him (and Jackson Williams) due to money constraints; they had more top picks than their budget could really allow for. I don’t expect much out of him, to be honest. Here was what BA said before the draft:
Charlie doesn’t have the range to stick at shortstop, and though he posted huge power numbers this season, doesn’t project to hit for power as a professional. His pitch recognition and plate discipline could improve. He’s a below-average runner. He has a plus arm and fringe-average bat speed, however, and given all the intangibles, could become an attractive pick in the third or fourth round.
by aCone419 on Aug 5, 2008 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn’t praising Culberson. The comment by kupe said Culberson has been overmatched this year, and I think that isn’t particularly accurate. There are a lot of knocks on him, but I think a lot of that is getting overblown because of his miserable April.
by StickRat on Aug 5, 2008 7:22 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Response
I said he’s been a “little” overmatched this year, not that he doesn’t have any business being in the Sally League. And considering that even when you throw out his beyond awful April his line comes to a whopping .274/.324/.362 . . .well, frankly I don’t think I’m totally off base here.
by mrkupe on Aug 5, 2008 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s has first full pro season as a 19-year old who is playing below his ability. That isn’t the same as being overmatched. Look at his speed numbers from last year: 18 SB in 19 attempts, with five triples. I’m going with the Alex Gonzalez comp. Really slender kid who sacrificed speed for power, and took a couple pro years to make the adjustment.
by StickRat on Aug 5, 2008 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Pucetas
I thank Kevin Pucetas is the other finesse guy you were thinking of. Kevin raised his record to 9-0 with a 2.50 ERA with seven shutout innings this week. There was something I read about Kevin with regard to movement or ground ball tendency that intrigued me, although he is threatening to advance from prospect age to suspect age.
by sharksrog on Aug 9, 2008 3:27 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
Culberson
Subtract his dismal start in April, he is hitting .274.
by StickRat on Aug 4, 2008 9:44 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Son of Culber
I was glad when a month or so into the season Charlie Culberson’s hits finally exceeded his errors. ;)
by sharksrog on Aug 9, 2008 3:28 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
If we could give split grades for pitching and hitting...
the Giants would be near the top for pitching and near the bottom for hitting.
There are up to a half-dozen power bullpen arms that have already made a contribution on the big league level. There is the potential to have a totally home-grown starting rotation of Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Alderson, and Bumgarner (if Zito were to somehow “disappear”). I doubt any other pitching staff in the majors is comprised of as many of its own products.
On the other end of the spectrum, of course, is the hitting prospects. But it is encouraging that the new focus of the front office appears to be drafting high upside hitters early in the draft, as they did this year. The signing of Villalona and the recent signing of Rafael Rodriguez show that the Giants are seeking out top international hitting prospects as well.
As their hitting prospects move up the ladder it is possible the Giants system will rate among the top 10 in the game overall within a couple of years.
by baseballjunkie on Aug 5, 2008 3:41 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Hitting
The Giants’ ranking for hitting prospects could take a significant step upward if they are able to sign their top four draftees.
The breakout season from Pablo Sandoval and the drafting of Buster Posey (who should be signing about Thursday) helped out an extremely weak catching spot. The possible move back to third base by Angel Villalona and the signing of Conor Gillaspie greatly improves the hot corner.
But the Giants still don’t have much as shortstop unless Manny Burriss learns to hit right-handed pitching. Signing Brandon Crawford of UCLA could help. Brandon would like first- or second-round money, since that is how he views himself, but he grew up a Giants fan, so I would bet he too will sign.
While outfield was actually the strong spot when the Giants were struggling to put together prospects at the other non-pitching positions, I am a bit worried about it now. Wendell Fairley looks to be a long way off, Rafael Rodriguez is almost an unknown - if encouraging - commodity, and while Nate Schierholtz likely should be playing in the majors now, he’s not a difference maker.
I like taking the best prospect available in the draft. But if next year with the Giants very likely drafting in the top five again that player were to be a shortstop or outfielder, it wouldn’t break my heart.
by sharksrog on Aug 9, 2008 3:35 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
Response
Do you really think Villalona is going to move back to third? He’s already one very big kid and while the hands are good I’m very skeptical he’ll have the range.
Crawford is a tough call. You bring up good points but as something of a disappointment this year, he might stand to benefit from going back for one more year and trying to put things together. He likely wouldn’t get huge money next year but he’d have a lot of appeal in the first couple of rounds as a senior sign with projectable versatility if he improved at all.
Fairley seems to be doing pretty well in rookie ball all things considered, and I think the evidence of progress has to make Giant fans happy. And to address your post about Noonan from above . . .he’s not doing great, but I don’t find much to complain about either. He’s a 19 year old middle infielder who’s hitting for a good average and some reasonably promising power numbers. I could see his bat playing somewhere. With the young guys I can let the plate discipline wait a bit, I want to see them hit.
by mrkupe on Aug 13, 2008 4:07 PM EDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't think they're in the top 10
They’ve got some great pitching talent, but it’s a ways out. Posey is a stud, and Villalona is a strong prospect, as well. I’m just not sure I see more than like 4 Top 100 guys, none of whom I think I would put in the top 10 or 20, and they don’t really have the depth of some other teams. It’s a very good system with some quality top-end talent and some decent depth. Definitely top half of the majors, but definitely not top 5 and probably not top 10.
by mraver on Aug 10, 2008 4:52 PM EDT reply actions 0 recs
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