Top 32 prospects
by gogotabata on Aug 30, 2008 8:01 AM EDT
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Print1) Matt Wieters (Mauer w/ power)
2) David Price (tho part of me sees a LH Andy Benes)
3) Dexter Fowler (complete package: for some reason, I see Robin Yount when he shifted to CF, but with more range)
4) Colby Rasmus (not worried, somewhere b/w Jim Edmonds and Steve Finley)
5) Jason Heyward (could be a monster)
6) Neftali Feliz (worst case scenario is Joel Zumaya, best case is something like Lincecum)
7) Rick Porcello (polish and power)
8) Cameron Maybin (power potential, but I don't see a 300 hitter)
9) Pedro Alvarez (if he stays at third, Aramis Ramirez with better plate discipline)
10) Chris Tillman (damn you Bavasi)
11) Chris Carter (that's right--his batting average on balls in play was unlucky to start the year; he should be at around his 290-300 usual ba; he's a 270 hitter in the majors, with huge power)
12) Engel Beltre (all about the upside)
13) Trevor Cahill (a Brandon Webb who doesn't kick it up to Cy Young levels)
14) Mike Moustakas (believe in the tools)
15) Travis Snider (all bat; Brian Giles 2.0?)
16) Matt LaPorta (all bat; Richie Sexson 2.0?)
17) Madison Bumgarner (pass)
18) Gordon Beckham (I'm getting Longoria, Tulowitzki vibes)
19) Tim Alderson (pass)
20) Derek Holland (the kool aid tastes great!)
21) Jesus Montero (only 20% chance of staying at catcher, but still looks like a specimen regardless)
22) Jeremy Hellickson (10% of becoming Oswalt, but still a likely #2)
23) Jordan Walden (ugliest guy on the list, but classic power package)
24) Andrew McCutchen (I just don't think he'll put it all together; I see Corey Patterson with a better eye)
25) Frederick Freeman (more kool aid)
26) Brandon Wood (if Rob Deer played 3rd base)
27) Brett Anderson (classic 2/3 starter, just enough oomph to not have to be crafty)
28) Tim Beckham (tool shed, will likely have a long apprenticeship)
29) Logan Morrison (mix between Youkilis and Overbay? or more power?)
30) Nick Weglarz (the performance isn't quite there, but next year he taps the huge power to go with the great plate discipline)
31) Lars Anderson (overrated due to organization and Lancaster, but still an everyday first baseman)
32) Wilson Ramos (my own mancrush koolaid; ballpark and BABIP have artificially skewered his numbers downward, though those numbers are starting to look pretty decent on their own; strong athlete, I think he's an all-star catcher: 280/350/450 line with GG defense, tho it may be for somewhere else)
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Interesting list....
The opinions on Chris Carter and Nick Weglarz I find most intriguing, next year will be a huge year for both as they make the AA jump.
My question as a Tribe fan (and I’d love people’s thoughts here), on Weglarz is… I have heard about the raw power potential but with the solid BB/K ratio is he a potential .300 hitter too or are people thinking .260?
"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"
my feeling
which is just a feeling, is that he is more of a 280 hitter — according to minor league splits, normalizing his ballpark and his luck produces a .292 hitter. I take that with a grain of salt, but it helps color the current data. His bb/k ratio, like you say, is solid. It was more pronounced last year, but he also showed much more power last year; my guess is that he shows more power next year, but it could come either of two ways: 1) he could build on his plate control from this year and have the power add to it, or 2) the growth in power could come at the expense of his new found plate control. My bet is that he will, like Fowler this year, consolidate his tools next year: he’s developing plate discipline this year, and that skill will stick next year as his natural power is re-asserted.
Response
Weglarz – prediction here is like a .270-.280 hitter with good pop. I think his upside is something like a hybrid of Paul Konerko and Carlos Pena . . .in other words, a pretty nice player, a guy with the potential to play in All Star games.
Haven’t seen any “expert” opinion yet that speaks very well of his chances to stay in the OF. But that bat has the raw potential to play anywhere, so it’s not really a big deal IMO.
Not an expert as you know but
it looks to me like Weglarz can stay in LF unless he gets even bigger. Weglarz is huge but surprisingly mobile for his size. Given that qualification, he is probably “mediocre” at this time with a ceiling of average ML. His only other position is 1B and that is quite crowed in the Indian organization. Not arguing the pick but I think I would have put Mills ahead of Weglarz.
Response
On the other hand . . .he was drafted as a 1B, not an OF, and he doesn’t exactly project to get smaller as he gets older. I think optimistically you can project him to be a fringe OF defensively, but I’m not real confident beyond that.
Then again, as you noted the organization is pretty crowded at 1B, and assuming everything goes well developmentally then Weglarz as a fringe OF probably will look better than LaPorta out there.
The organization may need answers to a lot of things, but projecting two out of Weglarz/Mills/LaPorta to be solid players doesn’t seem like a horrible stretch even given prospect attrition, so figure they have 1B/DH covered and maybe 1B/LF.
Interesting list
Of both upside and performance.
Interesting to see how few 2008 draftees made your list. Talent void, or not enough time to research yet? I know I haven’t caught up myself on these guys, so am wondering what to expect when I do start breaking out the magnifying glass.
BTW, are you still biggest Jordan Walden fan (adult division)?
Did you know that Jordan Walden was the highest rated high school arm in his class!!!
I’m still pretty big on Walden, and he’s seemed to slip a bit under the radar this year. I have to admit I’ve been a little disappointed in his k rate, and I don’t think he has ace upside right now; he reminds me of a Pete Harnisch type, which is a really nice thing to have.
I have a blind spot on recent draftees, as I tend to evaluate by matching year to year statistical trends for players against their scouting reports in order to project on them. Buster Posey should probably be in my top 30, along with Smoak.
If I were to expand to 50, I’d probably include a couple of guys I’m pretty high on, Brett Lawrie and Zach Collier. But I like to aggressively rank guys that I have strong instincts on. I really feel, for instance, that Wilson Ramos will be a top 20 prospect by the end of 09. I would even put someone like the Yanks’ Kelvin De Leon in my top 75.
"Was" is the key word...
He was the highest rated arm until he mysteriously lost 10 MPH off his fastball prior to the draft. He gained it back but it is very alarming.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 30, 2008 4:34 PM EDT up reply actions
Running gag
From last year, this one guy who was SO nuts about Walden would put his fingers in his ears and repeat the bit about Walden coming out over and over again.
Lars Anderson?
Lars Anderson, regular 1st baseman? I don’t think so. He’ll be a .300+ hitter, 35+ Hr hitter and knock in over 110 RBI’s annually.
Hes killing AA at the age of 20, and is a big , athletic kid. What’s not to like?
though
to be fair he’s completely left Austin Jackson off.
I see what he’s saying with Lars… its just really, really hard for me to get impressed by a first base prospect because the offensive threshold for them to even be league average is crazy high. This was one of my criticisms of a certain Royals prospect recently.
not a yankee fan
But was apeshit about Tabata back when he was like 16. I like ’em young.
Lars is putting up the numbers you’d hope a first baseman would in AA, but it’s with a .438 BABIP and 41 strikeouts and 21 walks in 140 or so plate appearances. His Lancaster numbers were closer to the floor of what I was expecting from him there, as opposed to the ceiling. I don’t think he’s a future MVP, or regular All-Star. I think he’ll pop up on a few all-star teams, perhaps, and I think you can definitely win a championship with him as yr first baseman and #5 hitter. But I don’t see a future Howard, Thome, F. Thomas, Ortiz or anything like that. I see, at the best, Adrian Gonzalez’s numbers without the defense and without the home park disadvantage. A very nice player, and he has less of a chance to bottom out than Carter. But I like upside, and I think Carter’s got him beat.
Gordon Beckham doesn't give off Tulowitzki vibes to me
More like Khalil Greene vibes… not that Khalil is a bad player, exactly, but…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
I wonder
If we put Khalil and Tulowitzki in the same ballpark for their careers, how much of a difference we’d see? Tulo is a slightly better player, I think, still.
F-Mart??
Is going to drop that far?? HIs season hasn’t been terrible and considering he was injured I wouldn’t drop him down that far.
Ive never been a fan, personally.
The guy has done crap as a professional player other than some BABIP fueled high AVGs. I like his tools a ton, but Im going to need to see one year where he actually produces to start listing him on these sort of lists.
Ive just seen a lot of guys
who get taken all the way up as legit stud prospects based entirely on ARL. Especially Hispanic/Carribean players who tend to peak early in their development. Then it just turns out we have six years of data of them being a .275 hitter with 7 HRs – and guess what? That’s exactly what they are. They never end up getting any better.
He’s still a damn good prospect, dont get me wrong, but I wouldnt have him in my top 32 either.
Fernando vs Heyward
Personally, I would like to have seen more power out of Fernando at this point but Fernando as a 17 year old hit better than Heyward as an 18 year old in A ball…. and Heyward is your #5. I’m not blind to Heyward’s better speed and defensive skills but it’s hard to get down on Fernando in that light. I mean, the kid’s still 19 and has nearly an .800 OPS in AA. Again, I would like to see the power start developing soon but it’s not like he’s scuffling out there and having his reputation entirely based on a couple at bats in the AFL.
by Lunkwill Fook on Aug 30, 2008 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
I think
Looking at skill set, athleticism, speed, and so forth, I see different sorts of trajectories for the two guys. There’s still the slightest chance that F-Mart becomes 85% of Manny Ramirez, but I see him as that kind of player (not necessarily the dreadlocks and lobotomized sweetness, but the sort of player), but he’s really got to start putting up the numbers. Otherwise, I see Raul Ibanez’s career (without the late start) when I look at F-Mart.
That's "Type A free agent" Raul Ibanez to you
Although when you think about it, Raul actually stands to have the biggest beef with the system over that. Because, I mean, who wants to give up a first round pick for Raul Ibanez? It’s going to make it much harder for him to get a new contract.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Yeah
I don’t think Ibanez is a bad player at all. It just seems like the most likely scenario for F-Mart’s skill set. Of course, Ibanez seems to maximize 110% of his natural talent; if F-Mart does the same, then he’s a much, much better player. I just don’t think he does it.
Actually the point I was trying to make
was not that Ibanez was awesome (he isn’t) but that the Elias rankings are really, really whacked out.
For starters, they don’t even make a pretense of accounting for defense for outfielders. Considering that Ibanez might actually be the single worst outfielder in all of baseball, that’s kind of a big oversight in his case.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Chris Carter
COMPLETELY AGREE
Im not sure why people are missing the boat on this guy, but he has a plus plus tool that is pretty much guaranteed to translate to the MLB level. That’s something you can bank on. With that kind of power his floor is what? MLB regular? Platoon at the worst? His other tools all impress too. This guy is a pretty exciting prospect who is not at all getting the respect he deserves.
defense
i still question where he’ll play. but if the bat is that good, you find a spot for him like a laporta/gamel.
k’s and defense are his biggest weaknesses going into AA next yr. i’ll throw in corey brown who actually too…both need to improve in that area. but the power is nice which A’s really need in the future
by Asfan4ever723 on Aug 30, 2008 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
I am concerned
About the strikeouts as well, but I think he’ll be that kind of slugger.
This year, by my count, he has 151 strikeouts in 580 plate appearances, striking out 26 percent of the time.
Combined A+ and AA, Lars Anderson has 105 strikeouts in 500 plate appearances, striking out 21 percent of the time.
Carter has 39 homers, 31 doubles, 4 triples. Anderson has 18 homers, 32 doubles, 1 triple.
Carter has a .297 BABIP. Anderson has a .384 BABIP.
Carter has put up a 262/360/578 line. Anderson has a combined 315/409/522 line.
Using minor league splits’ luck and ballpark neutralizer, Carter has a 290/385/590 line. Using that same neutralizer, Anderson has a combined 289/387/471 line.
The big question, other than league and park, for me right now ranking them, is how consistent are those BABIPs gonna be. Last year Carter had a 335 BABIP (and 335 and 354 the years before), while Anderson had a 370 BABIP last year.
The ‘luck’ neutralizer shifts Carter’s BABIP this year from 297 to 328, which is in his normal range. That bumps his batting average to .281. Stockton’s park, however, has inflates power slightly but deflates batting average more significantly: neutralizing it (and leaving luck alone) shifts him from 297 to 319.
What I take from this is that luck and home park have doubled-down to suppress Carter’s batting average; he’s not a future batting champion, but he’s not truly a .262 hitter. His track record in 07 (low A) and 06 (rookie ball) suggest the same: .291 and .301 averages, respectively. In 06, he had some awful at bats in A ball, so I’m admittedly cherry picking on that account.
What this info tells me is that Carter has HUGE power, and that his batting average has been unduly tweaked by his home park and his BABIP, the latter of which is an outlier in his track record.
Lars has been a .315 and .294 hitter the last two years, and he gets credit for performing well in AA at the same age as Carter. To my eyes, Anderson is a smidgen better than Carter in terms of strikeouts and batting average, but Carter is leaps and bounds beyond Anderson as a power hitter.
If Anderson’s upside projection is 300 average, 30 homers (which I don’t know if I buy), then Carter’s upside has to be 290 average and 45 homers (which I don’t know if I buy either). I would knock at least 10 points off of both guys’ averages, and 5 to 10 homers off of Anderson.
I think Carter could be a guy who hits between 260-280, could hit 40 homers a year, and draw a bunch of walks and strikeout a lot.
Response
“I think Carter could be a guy who hits between 260-280, could hit 40 homers a year, and draw a bunch of walks and strikeout a lot.”
Carter’s line this year: .262 BA, 39 HR, 73 BB, 152 K
Thanks for the info!
As you can tell in the response you’ve responded to, I haven’t even looked at or thought about his batting average this year.
Hold the snark
I got kind of quick on the trigger. I think you’re saying he’s put up those kind of numbers already? If so, then I say yeah, I think what he’s doing in Hi-A right now could be representative of what he’ll do in his best years in the majors.
If, however, you’re pointing out that he’s hitting .262 in hi-A as evidence that he WON’T hit 260-280 in the majors, then my snark stands, as I think I’ve demonstrated that his batting average this year isn’t representative of that particular skill of his.
I’m really curious to see next year if Lars puts up another 370+ BABIP; if so, he just might be that kind of hitter. If not, and he dips down in even the 330 territory, there might be a lot of disappointed Red Sox fans.
Response
Actually, neither. Truth be told, I was just kind of amused that you went to all of that extensive analysis to generate a hypothesis that exactly mirrors what Carter is doing right now.
We will see. Personally I’m a big skeptic of this guy, despite his huge power. There are clearly reasons why this guy is hitting .262 – the fact that he swings and misses an awful lot is a pretty good start. 152 Ks out of a 21 year old in A ball is a ton even with those power numbers. Brandon Wood was a year younger, struck out less, had a higher BA, and hit for even better power than Carter in the Cal League in 2005. Even there were many skeptics who just didn’t think he’d hit for average and make consistent contact at higher levels, and thus far they’re right.
I suppose so
But I mostly wanted to challenge the conventional wisdom, based on this year’s numbers alone, that Lars is a future 300 hitter while Carter is a future 230 hitter. I’ve been following Carter closely the last three years, and am impressed by his ability to adjust at each level; this is where I would separate him from Dunn. I think Carter has big time natural power, but has to work to bring the rest of his game up to speed. But he always does. He could hit a ceiling, in AA or AAA or the majors, but I think he’s a slow burn, one level per year type of guy. But I’m impressed by his ability to adjust to his third organization in a year, his slow start, his batting average reducing ballpark, his bad luck, and his getting moved all over the diamond.
Carter was never really "in" the D-Backs org
He spent something like 11 days as their contractual property.
I think you’re thinking of Aaron Cunningham, who by the way (for those of you not following his every move eagerly like us A’s fans) is currently OPSing 1.105 in 76 at bats at Sacramento (his total season number is .932)… you could make a pretty good argument for him to make some of these lists too. At what point do you stop looking at “tools” and realize that the guy has never not hit anywhere in his life?
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Nope
Thinking about Chris Carter. And I’m talking about the psychological factor for a young guy; he was their contractual property for like two weeks, but it’s still a factor in a guy’s ability to adjust his expectations and modify his self-orientation.
I think Cunningham is somewhere between 50 and 70; he seems like he’ll have three or four years as a productive regular left-fielder, and I’m sure will have a better career than a handful of these guys I listed. But I don’t know how much further to project him beyond that.
That's the thing about Cunningham
You don’t have to project him. At all. If he plays to what he’s done this season, he’s a true-talent All-Star for most of his career. (I say true-talent because we all know how the real All Star game works, especially in the AL.)
He doesn’t have to progress at all… he just needs to not REgress…
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
If you were ranking strictly on upside, Corey Brown would beat out Carter...
Corey (I use his first name because there are 912879167 players named “Brown” in the A’s system) has virtually unlimited potential— Josh Hamilton with steals? Curtis Granderson with more power? Sizemore with… well, OK, he’s probably not going to be better than Sizemore, but Sizemore is fu**ing incredible…
That said, christ, he’s so far away from that at this point… the Ks are killing him. Carter is certainly the better prospect at this point.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
So you all think Chris Carter is Adam Dunn?
I’m not disagreeing necessarily, but that’s what you’re basically describing, right? Lots of strikeouts, lots of walks, lots of home runs, worthless defensively. Very valuable slugger overall.
He actually has been looking damn good over at 3B
So not a great defender, even if shifted elsewhere, but far better than Dunn.
He's stayed about the same
In my opinion, he’s stayed about the same. Okay performance relative to age and level, nagging injury troubles, lack of a breakout. That keeps him somewhere in the 30s, I think.
Tommy Hanson
He’s definitely a top 25 player!
Lars Anderson and Chris Carter ?? Are you kidding
You guys have to really really do a better job of analyzing prospects. Carter is a guy who will probably be around 75 in the top 100 prospects puts out in 09. Lars Anderson is a to 10 prospect in ALL OF BASEBALL right now. What he is doing as a 20 year old in AA is what all the scouts are talking about. The hell with his numbers in the California league. They were good but not great. Well, his double-A numbers ARE GREAT especially for a 20 year old. Its much much more than numbers with Lars, he has an insane batting eye that will always lead to high walk totals and with his picture perfect swing a very high batting average. He also has awesome opposite field power which will be perfect for Fenway park. He projects as a .320 30-40 HR 120 RBI type of major league hitter with 100 plus walks per year. Chris Carter will be lucky to make the Majors in my opinion. Big holes and they arent going away.
Lars Anderson...
I believe he is overrated slightly. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a good prospect (probably in the teens, but not 10th or better), but I prefer Logan Morrison over Lars. Wherever you put Lars, you have to put Weglarz and Morrison. They are all producing near, if not identical numbers in the same league (with Morrison hitting in the worst park of the bunch). As for Carter, his value is different. How many minor leaguers are close to surefire 35+ hr material. I believe Carter can hit 35+ hrs every year if given enough at bats and finding a home for himself defensively. Regardless, I don’t believe either player rates as a top 10 player, and I do believe Carter should be rated below Anderson; however, I also believe you are either giving homer numbers to Lars or completely overrating him with the .320, 30-40 hr 120 RBI 100+ walks. I see him as a 20-30 homer player, .290+ avg with some years in the .300’s but never above .315 unless he’s got less than 300 at bats or has a outlier career type of year. I think Lars will be a solid player, but he doesn’t scream superstar like your numbers suggest.
"When Justin Upton faces Lincecum, I think Christ might appear in the heavens, and the world will end." -JakeFree
Wow
Welcome to minorleagueball. com, Mrs. Anderson. I heard Lars will also put up a couple of 40-40 seasons and pitch relief.
+1
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
+1
Carter is the most overrated prospect by A’s fans everywhere.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Aug 31, 2008 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
what about javier herrera?
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Nah
Everybody knows he stinks.
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on Sep 2, 2008 8:25 AM EDT up reply actions
just checking ;)
"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball
Yes, that 5% difference in K rate
clearly represents a staggering separation between their respective abilities to defend the plate.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Rookie rankings a bit odd
Matusz/Posey not listed and G. Beckham going that high from just a sampling of A ball? I think that you have to rank rookies more on their college performances than what they are doing right now at the pro level. I don’t know if you did up Beckham from how good he has looked at Kannapolis, but even if you were ranking them on what they’ve done so far, Posey looks good; Wieters has a better bat than Buster but Posey has a glove and can hit for average.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
Recent draftees
Are an admitted blind spot for me. If I were to re-rank them right this second, I’d probably put Posey top 20. I have trouble getting a read on Matusz. I bit on Detwiler this time last year, and that experience has probably got me a little over gun-shy.
Solid list nonetheless
But if you are going to include G. Beckham at all I’d drop him down and put Posey at least near the bottom. Trying to be as unbiased at possible, however, I’d have Matusz low in the top 32 but slightly above Posey. Matusz has four pitches at his disposal, multiple which are plus, and he should move up very quickly after spending a good amount of time in college. The problem with him is that he seems to be a guy that should get to #2 and stay there, 3 worst case scenario, but doesn’t have a very high likelihood of coming out to be an ace. If I were to make a list I might include Posey, but if I were to I’d have Matusz above him and leave G. Beckham off all together.
My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver
I'm willing
To say that that’s probably a more defensible stacking of guys than I have right now. Part of it is watching Beckham on tv and getting a good sense of him. I have the first pick in a draft this offseason where we select from 08 draftees and international signees, and right now I’m alternating b/w G. Beckham and Posey, though part of it is that I have a greater need at catcher. So I should have probably included Posey, he probably just slipped my mind . . .
Lars
I like Morrison and Weglarz, but please tell me what their DOUBLE-A numbers are at the moment ?? They dont have any, which is where the men are seperated from the boys. Mr Anderson has played 40 games now in DOUBLE-A and his numbers are among the best in the Eastern league if he had enough at bats to qualify. Morrison and Weglarz are not on the same level as Anderson until they prove it at DOUBLE-A.
I might be a Lars skeptic
But the strikeouts and BABIP make me feel that he might not keep up those numbers over a full season. That doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s a good prospect. I think he’s one of the 32 best prospects in the game, and I like him a lot more than someone like Gamel, for instance, or Triunfel or Fernando Martinez or Ben Revere or Beau Mills. I even like him more than Carlos Santana, who I like a lot. If Lars puts up similar BA and OBP numbers next year (that is, he shows that he’s not the beneficiary of awfully friendly BABIP rates) and he shows more power, then I’d shoot him way up the rankings, at least top 15. He just hasn’t put up a stat line yet that I haven’t had some sort of reservation about. I’m totally willing to admit I could be blind to his future MVP-ness.
kershaw
In my amateur opinion, either 1 or 2.
131 AB's
is a small sample size, no?
I think saying he moved up and is doing better based on just 131 AB’s is kind of foolish.
What if he moved up and tanked? I’d bet the argument would be, “well, it’s just 131 AB’s.”
Not that small
Almost half as many at bats as he had in Lancaster, which is what the criticism was based on. So I dont see how you could criticize him on the one hand for not raking enough in Lancaster(where his line is very good, but not bugs bunny good – which apparently is a knock against him) and then knock his bugs bunny performance in Portland as SSS.
But then again it seems like lots of people have been looking for a reason to knock Lars. While we can argue about his ceiling, he is the best first base prospect in baseball.
Bugs Bunny
His Bugs Bunny numbers in 131 at bats are exclusively his home park numbers and his numbers against righties.
Home: 359/481/547 (really impressive)
Away: 284/388/522 (pretty darn impressive)
Vs RH: 363/468/604 (jaw dropping)
Vs LH: 225/354/375 (troubling)
So, his performance in AA has been impressive, but I’m not willing to push him up into top 20 territory just yet.
Is he going to maintain a .438 BABIP in AA? How about the spike in his strikeouts? Is he going to have a big platoon split? Or is that platoon split a fluke (he had a reverse split in Lancaster)? Are his home and road numbers going to remain distinctly different ?
He had an 1002 OPS at home in Lancaster, and an 830 OPS on the road.
At minor league splits, when you normalize his ‘luck’ and put his BABIP at a healthy .358, here are his AA numbers: 262/370/480.
I just don’t see the slam dunk stallion aspect yet.
I originally said
I didnt have a problem with where you have him, though I would have him higher,
I think the stud/stallion aspect is where his performance so far meets the scouting. He’s big athletic guy who looks like he’s going to hit for some impressive power. His swing looks like it too.
Not saying that’s right or wrong, but I think that is the reason you typically see him getting ranked higher.
As a Rangers' homer it's nice to see three future Rangers in the top 20
Though I have to say you’re a good bit more bullish on Engel Beltre than I am. I heart the kid’s super toolsiness, but he’s more of a back end of the top hundred guy to me right now. I think he’s due for a big time breakout next year with a full season in the Cal league but until it happens it’s still just promise.
I’d have Andrus, Smoak, Mad Max above him in my rankings. He’s in the second tier with guys like Main and Beavan for me.
Neftali and Dutch are the real deal, though.
Nice list, btw.
Thanks for sharing.
The 40 Trumps All!!!
Lars Anderson
You guys that think Weglarz, Morrison or Carter are on the same level, you may want to give up evaluating prospects. Baseball America will show you the difference soon enough between them as it is not even close …. Anyone at Baseball America will agree Lars Anderson is one of the top prospects in the game right now … Morrison, Weglarz and Carter are top 50 material, maybe top 75. The moron arguing about Anderson’s AA numbers being home heavy is just retarded … Your argument is beyond weak … I think Matt Wieters is the ONLY prospect that is clearly above Anderson at the moment
Is this account a sock puppet of N. Frederick Hoover Livingston Cody Throatwobbler-Mangrove VII?
Not only are both of them making the same irritating arguments (perhaps “assertions” would be a better characterization, since there’s no real interaction going on here) about Lars Anderson, both of them seem to be unable to grasp the concept of the “reply” button.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Price is #2
Rasmus is #4, Porcello is #7, and Cahill is #13. Do you strongly disagree with the placement of one of them? (I think that Rasmus and Porcello are too high, personally, but I’m not very appalled by it). I don’t think I understand what you’re saying
www.loftylantern.com
Response
Well . . .how low would you put Rasmus and Porcello then? Unless you think that both are like well out of the top 50-60 or so prospects, the difference between what you project and what this list projects is basically nil.
Exactly
I was trying to understand what hero66 meant by saying those 4 names – at first I thought maybe he thought they weren’t on the list, when all of them are. Then I had no idea.
Personally, I’d probably put Rasmus closer to the bottom of the top 10, and Porcello in the low 10s, but that’s just an instinctive guess. I don’t strongly disagree with his rankings which is why I didn’t complain about them.
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Sep 1, 2008 11:43 PM EDT up reply actions
Sorry
I was responding to the Upton guy who said the only prospect currently ahead of Anderson is Weiters, which is retarded.
Never, Never, NEVER give up
Is "reply" somehow not large enough for people's eyes to notice it or something?
Crimony.
Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.
Ohhhhh
I’m sorry – I didn’t understand that. My apologies
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on Sep 2, 2008 10:43 AM EDT up reply actions
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