which is just a feeling, is that he is more of a 280 hitter — according to minor league splits, normalizing his ballpark and his luck produces a .292 hitter. I take that with a grain of salt, but it helps color the current data. His bb/k ratio, like you say, is solid. It was more pronounced last year, but he also showed much more power last year; my guess is that he shows more power next year, but it could come either of two ways: 1) he could build on his plate control from this year and have the power add to it, or 2) the growth in power could come at the expense of his new found plate control. My bet is that he will, like Fowler this year, consolidate his tools next year: he’s developing plate discipline this year, and that skill will stick next year as his natural power is re-asserted.

Weglarz – prediction here is like a .270-.280 hitter with good pop. I think his upside is something like a hybrid of Paul Konerko and Carlos Pena . . .in other words, a pretty nice player, a guy with the potential to play in All Star games.

Haven’t seen any “expert” opinion yet that speaks very well of his chances to stay in the OF. But that bat has the raw potential to play anywhere, so it’s not really a big deal IMO.

I’m still pretty big on Walden, and he’s seemed to slip a bit under the radar this year. I have to admit I’ve been a little disappointed in his k rate, and I don’t think he has ace upside right now; he reminds me of a Pete Harnisch type, which is a really nice thing to have.

I have a blind spot on recent draftees, as I tend to evaluate by matching year to year statistical trends for players against their scouting reports in order to project on them. Buster Posey should probably be in my top 30, along with Smoak.

If I were to expand to 50, I’d probably include a couple of guys I’m pretty high on, Brett Lawrie and Zach Collier. But I like to aggressively rank guys that I have strong instincts on. I really feel, for instance, that Wilson Ramos will be a top 20 prospect by the end of 09. I would even put someone like the Yanks’ Kelvin De Leon in my top 75.

is by a guy named “gogotabata…”

If we put Khalil and Tulowitzki in the same ballpark for their careers, how much of a difference we’d see? Tulo is a slightly better player, I think, still.

The guy has done crap as a professional player other than some BABIP fueled high AVGs. I like his tools a ton, but Im going to need to see one year where he actually produces to start listing him on these sort of lists.

Personally, I would like to have seen more power out of Fernando at this point but Fernando as a 17 year old hit better than Heyward as an 18 year old in A ball…. and Heyward is your #5. I’m not blind to Heyward’s better speed and defensive skills but it’s hard to get down on Fernando in that light. I mean, the kid’s still 19 and has nearly an .800 OPS in AA. Again, I would like to see the power start developing soon but it’s not like he’s scuffling out there and having his reputation entirely based on a couple at bats in the AFL.

i still question where he’ll play. but if the bat is that good, you find a spot for him like a laporta/gamel.
k’s and defense are his biggest weaknesses going into AA next yr. i’ll throw in corey brown who actually too…both need to improve in that area. but the power is nice which A’s really need in the future

So not a great defender, even if shifted elsewhere, but far better than Dunn.

In my opinion, he’s stayed about the same. Okay performance relative to age and level, nagging injury troubles, lack of a breakout. That keeps him somewhere in the 30s, I think.

I believe he is overrated slightly. Don’t get me wrong, I think he’s a good prospect (probably in the teens, but not 10th or better), but I prefer Logan Morrison over Lars. Wherever you put Lars, you have to put Weglarz and Morrison. They are all producing near, if not identical numbers in the same league (with Morrison hitting in the worst park of the bunch). As for Carter, his value is different. How many minor leaguers are close to surefire 35+ hr material. I believe Carter can hit 35+ hrs every year if given enough at bats and finding a home for himself defensively. Regardless, I don’t believe either player rates as a top 10 player, and I do believe Carter should be rated below Anderson; however, I also believe you are either giving homer numbers to Lars or completely overrating him with the .320, 30-40 hr 120 RBI 100+ walks. I see him as a 20-30 homer player, .290+ avg with some years in the .300’s but never above .315 unless he’s got less than 300 at bats or has a outlier career type of year. I think Lars will be a solid player, but he doesn’t scream superstar like your numbers suggest.

Welcome to minorleagueball. com, Mrs. Anderson. I heard Lars will also put up a couple of 40-40 seasons and pitch relief.

clearly represents a staggering separation between their respective abilities to defend the plate.

Are an admitted blind spot for me. If I were to re-rank them right this second, I’d probably put Posey top 20. I have trouble getting a read on Matusz. I bit on Detwiler this time last year, and that experience has probably got me a little over gun-shy.

But the strikeouts and BABIP make me feel that he might not keep up those numbers over a full season. That doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s a good prospect. I think he’s one of the 32 best prospects in the game, and I like him a lot more than someone like Gamel, for instance, or Triunfel or Fernando Martinez or Ben Revere or Beau Mills. I even like him more than Carlos Santana, who I like a lot. If Lars puts up similar BA and OBP numbers next year (that is, he shows that he’s not the beneficiary of awfully friendly BABIP rates) and he shows more power, then I’d shoot him way up the rankings, at least top 15. He just hasn’t put up a stat line yet that I haven’t had some sort of reservation about. I’m totally willing to admit I could be blind to his future MVP-ness.

In my amateur opinion, either 1 or 2.

I don’t deny that Lars Anderson is an interesting prospect, but your argument seems a little simplistic to me. He and Weglarz are the same age and spent the large majority of this year at the same level. Other people can discuss the differing park and league effects – I’m relatively uninterested, though I’m sure they have a point. Looking at their stats, Anderson showed slightly better power than Weglarz – his ISOP was .196 while Weglarz’s was .164. Though both have excellent eyes, Weglarz showed a better one; Anderson struck out a little more (K/PA of 18.2% while Weglarz had a 17.4), and walked significantly less (Anderson walked 13.1 % of his PA, while Weglarz walked 16.1).

The reason Anderson’s OPS was so much higher than Weglarz’s was because of batting average; Anderson had an excellent .317 BA while Weglarz had a more mediocre .276. In this case, Anderson’s higher batting average is almost entirely a function of a significantly higher BABIP. In A+, Anderson had an incredibly high BABIP of .367 while Weglarz’s was a more reasonable .325. If you discount BABIP, then their OPS would be very similar.

This isn’t to say that Anderson won’t become a significantly better hitter than Weglarz, but at the moment, they seem to be roughly comparable players.