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Doing it Dewey Style (Top 25)

With the Minor League Baseball season coming to an end, I've decided to put together a list of who I believe are the Top 25 talents currently in the minors.  I've taken A LOT of heat lately for my stance on certain prospects, but I still welcome your feedback.

 

Dewey's Top 25 MiLB Prospects

 

1. Matt Wieters (a complete hitter)

2. David Price (will battle Kazmir to be 'ace' of the Rays)

3. Trevor Cahill (sinker/knuckle curve combo that makes Webb & Mussina proud)

4. Travis Snider (Jays future cleanup hitter)

5. Dexter Fowler (.300, 20 HR, 40 SB is in his future)

6. Matt LaPorta (Pat Burrell with a better average)

7. Colby Rasmus (a young Jim Edmonds)

8. Cameron Maybin (imagine Mike Cameron hitting .300)

9. Derek Holland (somewhere between Scott Kazmir and Jon Lester)

10. Mike Moustakas (will push Alex Gordon to LF)

11. Jason Heyward (demonstrating all 5 tools)

12. Lars Anderson (very similar to Adrian Gonzalez)

13. Logan Morrison (a lock to be a .300+ hitter in the majors with 20+ HR power)

14. Rick Porcello (just needs experience and polish to become frontline starter)

15. Daryl Jones (Granderson with less Ks? I'll take it)

16. Mike Stanton (Adam Dunn with less walks but better avg)

17. Freddie Freeman (Justin Morneau is an accurate comp)

18. Austin Jackson (Yankees next exciting player and 20/20 candidate)

19. Jarrod Parker (has the power arsenal, just needs better command)

20. Andrew McCutchen (toolsy kid will become fan favorite in Pittsburgh)

21. Brett Anderson (Andy Pettitte seems like a reasonable comp)

22. Neftali Feliz (BIG fastball, needs to develop another pitch to be an 'ace')

23. Ben Revere (Ichiro-lite?)

24. Michael Saunders (Grady Sizemore-lite?)

25. Tim Alderson (solid arsenal and great command reminds me of Dan Haren)

5 recs | Comment 148 comments

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Tim Alderson

Interesting that he’s ahead of Bumgarner, considering that Madison is a year younger AND has a great ride going. I like the list though.

by sign posey on Aug 29, 2008 11:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Alderson's more polished

I’m guessing that’s why. But why’s Jarrod Parker so much higher than either of them?

by boonitez on Aug 29, 2008 11:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Parker

I like his stuff (excellent fastball/slider combo) better than Alderson.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 29, 2008 11:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bumgarner

He has an excellent fastball, but I think his other pitches need a lot of work. Obviously he is very young and has lots of time on his side to develop solid secondary offerings. His amazing stats are mainly due to the low A batters being overmatched by his lethal heater. If he can develop another pitch along with the fastball, watch out!

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 29, 2008 11:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bumgarner??

Bumgarner is a poor man’s Ryan Bones…. his stuff is just sick. Nasty slider, filthy sinker.

I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!

by Buzz Bissinger on Aug 29, 2008 11:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Feliz

I just wanted to add that I see Feliz and Bumgarner as very similar types of pitchers (both relying heavily on their fastball). Feliz made the list because he is succeeding at a higher level.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 29, 2008 11:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

re:mike stanton

adam dunn was a .300 hitter in the minors.

take it FWIW.

by variablesdont on Aug 29, 2008 11:35 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good point...

Although Stanton has been pretty solid thus far (currently .292, 1st half .281, 2nd half .304).

I can’t wait to see how he does in the FSL. Hopefully he can trim the Ks and maintain HUGE power.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 29, 2008 11:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

cahill

cahill looks like jesse litsch.. no way he’s the #3 prospect in all baseball

I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!

by Buzz Bissinger on Aug 30, 2008 12:02 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually

I was contemplating putting Cahill at #2. I am slightly concerned in Price’s drop in velocity from college. He used to be mid-high 90s at Vanderbilt, but not sits in the low 90s. Perhaps there are some issues going on with his arm. Up until AAA, he was very effective.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 12:17 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

or he's focusing more on location

pro hitters are harder than college hitters. I think he’s learning the idea that 93 or so placed accurately is more effective than 98 down the pipe. I doubt he has arm problems.

by boonitez on Aug 30, 2008 2:21 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I kinda agree

Joba as a starter has worked more effectively as a starter by throwing 93-94, rather than 97-98.

As for Price’s arm problems, I only mentioned it because he was shutdown in spring training with both elbow and shoulder issues. It didn’t turn out to be serious, but something to make note of.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 2:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response

That is not correct. If anything, Price might actually be throwing a little harder now than he was in college. Check out some of the posts on this very site from when Price appeared in spring training games.

Also, a velocity drop from college to the pros isn’t troubling . . .a lot of pitchers experience that due to the more rigorous pitching schedule. It doesn’t hurt a guy’s chances, especially a guy whose stuff is still clearly plus across the board like David Price.

by mrkupe on Aug 30, 2008 2:50 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Um no

Price is NOT throwing harder now than in college. At Vandy he was consistently in the 95-97 mph range with his fastball, now he works in the 91-93 range. He’s still very effective and the best pitching prospect in the game.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 8:33 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Um no

I never saw Price sitting that high, and I never read anyone who saw him claim that. 95-97 was the upper end of what he could reach, not where he sat. Here is BA’s pre-draft report:

He pitches at 90-91 mph, but the late life, arm-side run and finish of his fastball make it a weapon. He can dial it up to 95, seemingly whenever he needs to.

by aCone419 on Aug 31, 2008 11:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Unfortunately

That BA report is providing false information. You have been misled.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 31, 2008 12:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well

John says he can touch 95 when he needs to (so does BA for that matter). Maybe that’s what Dewey is talking about.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 31, 2008 1:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Nice

Ignore the facts and my point that I’ve saw him pitch for Vandy. Find me one reputable source that has him “sitting” 95-97.

by aCone419 on Aug 31, 2008 1:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well

I am just going based on what RJ Harrison (Rays Scouting Director) said after they selected David Price in last year’s draft. In my previous post, I should have said that Price sat in the 95 range, and could reach back and hit 97 if he needed to. You guys can go based on what John or BA or whoever says, I’m just telling you what the Rays Scouting Director said on TV. Heck, if you think you know more than RJ Harrison, I suggest you apply for a job with a Major League team.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 31, 2008 7:38 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No, I don't think there is a reason for RJ to lie.

I also don’t ever recall him saying that. If you can find a quote attributed to R.J. Harrison, please do post it. The only time I’ve ever heard of Price sitting at 95 and touching 99 was this spring, when he did it against the Yankee’s. Yeah, he did throw that hard, for one inning in spring training, but he doesn’t sit there when he’s starting.

Other than that appearance, every report, whether it’s from BA, BP, JS or first hand observation from people who’ve seen him in Vero or Durham or listening to him on the radio in Montgomery, has him sitting at 93 touching 96 with his 4-seam and often, sitting at 89-91 throwing his 2-seamer that has great movement.

Tools Whore

Sign Bonds!

by Tyler on Aug 31, 2008 9:41 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well

It’s possible he’s exaggerating to make his player look even more phenomenal, which does sound unlikely.

I agree with everything else though- a 93 mph heater on a lefty is phenomenal.

by demondeaconsbaseball on Aug 31, 2008 10:19 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I remember

The hype when David Price touched 100 in one of the spring training games against ML hitters.

by gogotabata on Sep 1, 2008 11:45 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Price's velocity...

I have seen Price pitch in Durham and his velocity is not low 90’s, it was 93-96 on the night I saw him…If you want proof I have a photo of the gun reading on my blog….

http://ncgiants.blogspot.com/

by Sgt. Dingleberry on Sep 2, 2008 10:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Price throws hard

I saw about a dozen games this year in the Florida State League, and Price is the hardest thrower I saw. Second hardest, for a SP anyway, might have been Scott Kazmir on a rehab.

A lot of people get overexited about inflated radar gun reading on guys in the minors. The reality is, the highest average FB velocity in MLB this year for a SP was Ubaldo Jiminez, at 94.9 mph. Tim Lincecum is 5th, at 94.2 mph. Kazmir has averaged about 92mph on the FB for his career.

Anyone who imagines there are very many SP in the minors who “sit” above 94 mph is probably buying into too many infalted gun readings. Reality is, if Price is sitting about 94 mph he migh end up being one of the 10 hardest throwers in the game. And I can say he’s at least sitting 93+.

by acerimusdux on Sep 10, 2008 10:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

FWIW

In his latest playoff start for Durham, Price was throwing 95 MPH consistently, with his lowest reading that I know of being 92 and his highest being 97. How many lefty starters throw that hard that consistenty?

www.raysbb.com

Yes, we really do have fans.

by killa3312 on Sep 11, 2008 12:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Those are definitely a touch high

As acerimusdux said, the fastest avg FB was less than 95, and I find it hard to believe that David Price is the hardest thrower in baseball.

Here are all the lefty starters that throw 90+ and their FB velocities and overall rankings, from FanGraphs:

  1. CC Sabathia – 93.7
  2. Manny Parra – 92.4
  3. Jon Lester – 92.0
  4. Johan Santana – 91.2
  5. John Danks – 91.1
  6. Oliver Perez – 91.1
  7. Joe Saunders – 91.0
  8. Randy Johnson – 91.0
  9. Cliff Lee – 90.6
  10. Cole Hamels – 90.3
  11. Dana Eveland – 90.2

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Sep 11, 2008 7:51 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He doesn't throw that hard every start

but in this game, he was definitely zipping it in at 95 with regularity.

www.raysbb.com

Yes, we really do have fans.

by killa3312 on Sep 11, 2008 9:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow

according to your list, I own 8 players in the top 25 in my 20 team dynasty league…wow

Cahill, Maybin, Holland, Morrison, Jones, Stanton, Saunders, and Alderson

makes me proud whether or not they all pan out

by smk1363 on Aug 30, 2008 12:57 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Smart guys!!!

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 12:14 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Overrating:

Maybin, Heyward, Freeman, Stanton, Saunders, Holland (by a lot for Derek),
Underrating:

Wade Davis, Fernando Martinez, Mat Gamel. Madison Bumgardner, Chris Tillman, Tim Beckham

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 30, 2008 2:03 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My thoughts...

Wade Davis will be a solid starting pitcher that probably fits in the back of a rotation.

Fernando Martinez really hasn’t done much to impress. I’m tired of hearing how young he is for the level.

Matt Gamel is someone I strongly considered, he barely missed the cut.

Madison Bumgarner I have already addressed, he is dominating weak hitters with a great fastball, thats it.

Chris Tillman is a flyball pitcher. In Camden? No thanks.

Tim Beckham was not included because I didn’t want to include recent draftees (not enough games).

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 11:35 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tillman

Camden is a very slight hitter’s park.

If being a flyball pitcher is so disastrous, someone forgot to tell Santana, Peavy, Schilling, Dice-K, Sheets, Cain, Ervin Santana, Hamels, Randy Johnson, among many others.

by dkdc on Aug 30, 2008 12:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow

I hope you aren’t actually comparing Chris Tillman to those great pitchers.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 1:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wow

I hope you aren’t completely ignoring what he just told you about Camden being nearly neutral.

by Lt Melmo on Aug 30, 2008 1:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

To be fair

Heyward and Martinez both have big upsides, They’ve both proven themselves in A ball, and they’re both young.

So how can you love Heyward so much and not even put F-Mart in your Top 25?

I also don’t see all that much of a difference between Feliz and Bumgarner.

by METSMETSMETS on Aug 30, 2008 5:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Feliz

Has succeeded at higher levels than Bumgarner.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 8:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Honestly

I think F-Mart is one of the most overrated prospects in baseball.

I apologize if that stings you.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 8:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

wow

I’m willing to take your top 25 as ‘one guy’s take is as good as another,’ but the lack of analysis in this post blows your credibility out of the water. You’re tired of hearing about Martinez? Huh? What kind of reasoning is that? It certainly doesn’t diminish what both stats and his production say about his future. Tillman is discounted by Camden Yards yet you have 2 guys on the list from much better hitters’ parks (and I don’t see how the type of park matters, anyway — we’re testing to see if they’ll be productive players, not to see if they’ll put up good fantasy stats).

For what it’s worth I agree with you on Bumgarner.

by scooter on Sep 10, 2008 8:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I dont

understand how Derek HOlland is way overrated. The only thing that would make someone say that is simply the fact that he was a 25th Round draft pick, paid 5th round money to sign out of an unknown juco… That means nothing when you look at what he’s done and the kind of stuff he now has… Throws anywhere from a 92 all the way to a 97 MPH fastball with alot of late movement a good slider and developing changeup, His numbers are even more impressive with a .64 ERA in 5 or so starts at AA, he’s always had more than a K per IP ratio and solid BB ratio. I just dont see why you’d call him overrated

by blalock84 on Sep 2, 2008 2:50 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's a thing about this site

Holland isn’t overrated in the rest of the world. It’s just that Dewey thinks Holland is Lefty Jesus.

by aap212 on Sep 2, 2008 3:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL

I like the sound of that. Derek “Lefty Jesus” Holland.

Thanks!

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Sep 2, 2008 6:49 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No

Jesus was a lefty. Derek Holland IS Jesus.

by TCapone30 on Sep 2, 2008 7:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

lol

This whole conversation is greatness.

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 4, 2008 6:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No

Everyone knows Jesus was a righty.

by onholliday on Sep 5, 2008 1:05 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Holland at 9, Bumgarner off the list?

You’re officially obsessed. Say hi to Derek Holland for me when he notices you in the bushes outside his window.

by aap212 on Aug 30, 2008 4:23 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well

It’s no secret that I am very high on Derek Holland.

I believe he has Kazmir type ability, so why wouldn’t I include him in my top 10?

Don’t worry about Bumgarner, he might make the list next year if he can continue his video game numbers at higher levels in the minors.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 11:38 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Reinhardt

Hey Dewey,

How do you project Doug Reinhardt from the Orioles. He’s already showed great acumen with his acquisitions of Conrad and Pratt, but has yet to put up any numbers in the minors. Could he be baseball’s version of Tony Romo? He certainly has the bone structure going for him.

I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!

by Buzz Bissinger on Aug 30, 2008 12:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Good question

He strikes me as a Jesse Palmer type of guy. He might be the next “Bachelor”.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 1:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LaPorta 6?

Lars Anderson is 2.5 years younger and has outhit him. Peak Translation EqA’s from BP: Anderson .324. (comps for this year: Teixiera, Quentin, Manny), LaPorta .294 (Soriano, Cust, Delgado),

Heck, 2007 Jed Lowrie was 3 months younger, was a SS, and outhit him, and was controversial when ranked not nearly as high.

by emvan on Aug 30, 2008 4:28 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

maybe I’m not understanding this fully, if so, please correct me, but LaPorta is almost a year younger than Lowrie and he absolutely crushed Lowrie in every hitting category (well almost). LaPorta OPSed over 1.000 in 07 while Lowrie was at .900. I understand the positional differences, but LaPorta still outhit him by a rather wide margin. Also, those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt since LaPorta only had only 100+ AB’s and it was his first taste of pro ball.

As for Anderson vs LaPorta, you can certainly make a case there, but I wouldn’t say that Anderson has outhit LaPorta since they’re both putting up an identical OPS this year. Factor in the positions (I know LaPorta is horrible in the OF, but he still plays there) and it’s pretty much a wash I think. Based on projection I’d say Anderson is ahead of him, but right now they’re about even.

by JP_Frost on Aug 30, 2008 5:40 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think it is safe to say that emvan is

looking at this through red sox colored glasses. That is his right but picking and choosing what stats to compare, particularly if they are BP, is not the best approach, IMHO. If you have to choose a statistical measure, then I prefer the Sickels/James approach.

by sdtribefan on Sep 4, 2008 6:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Guys to add....

I like a lot of names on this list:

Revere – I see him hitting .310+ in the majors with lightning speed. He was the fastest guy in his draft class and runs a 60 yard dash in 6.2 seconds according to BA.

Austin Jackson – Action Jackson will be a fan favorite in NY for years to come. His future screams 20 HR, 20 SB with a great glove. Once his athleticism catches up with his developing performance…..LOOK OUT!!!!

Other Guys I would put on this list:

Angel Villalona – This kid can flat out mash. The power numbers he put up primarily as a 17 year old are extremely impressive. I see him developing into an Andres Gallarga type slugger.

Pedro Alverez – Best player in the 2008 draft. Who knows what happens to his contract but when he cracks the bigs we are watching a player in the mold of Manny or Aramis Ramirez. He will hit .300 with 30 HR and make it look easy.

Jhoulys Chacin – He has one thing in abbundance…….STUFF. Chacin has been simply awesome and I can’t wait to see his line in AA next season.

Gordon Beckham – The REAL best Beckham in the draft. This guy will fly through the minors and be starting in Chitown in 2010. I see him as someone similar to Longoria but with a better glove.

Jesus Montero – This kid can mash. Not sure where his glove plays but his bat can play wherever it chooses.

Desmond Jennings – Injuries aside this guy is the most skilled athelete in baseball. Loses a notch due to shoulder surgery but I love his tools and plate discipline.

Yonder Alonso – Get ready to move to LF Mr. Votto because Alonso will be playing first in Cincy by 2010. Yonder has the ability to hit .300 with plus power and will make the Reds look great with this pick.

Luke Hughes – Where is all the love for this man from down under? We haven’t seen an Australian import this hot since Paul Hogan circa 1988.

Greg Halman – This kid is a 30/30 man waiting to happen. Needs to work on his secondary skills but what an exciting player. Ron Gant is his future.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 30, 2008 9:27 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

A good case can be made for most of those guys...

However, I have the following concerns…

Halman – I view him as a taller Corey Patterson. A lot of Ks and holes in the swing.

Hughes – I believe he has been moved to 3B, and I just don’t think his bat is good enough for 3B.

Alonso/G.Beckham/Alvarez – I excluded all recent draftees, although Justin Smoak would be ahead.

Villalona/Montero – barely missed the cut. Hugh upsides definitely.

Jennings – has lost A LOT of development time. I wanna see how he rebounds from injury.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 12:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Call me a homer,

but I like Rashun Dixon over Desmond Jennings at this point when it comes to ex-football players.

Dixon has huge raw power potential that Jennings doesn’t have, and he has insane speed too (although it’s not translating into steals yet).

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 30, 2008 1:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Dixon

He is a very intriguing prospect and has the potential to be an exciting ballplayer once he puts it all together. I definitely have my eye on him but would like to see more consistent production.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 8:35 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

He's consistent at hitting triples...

In all seriousness, I don’t really think he’s top 25 or even top 100 material at this point. Too young, too far away. But I don’t really think Jennings is either. I hate injury prone outfielders.

Perhaps that’s just a reaction from having to sit through the past two years’ worth of Travis Buck and Milton Bradley…

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 31, 2008 1:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So I looked up Ben Revere at minorleaguesplits

and used the “luck neutralizer” to account for his ridonkulous BABIP.

Knocking it down to .334, which would still be in the top 5% of MLB, he has an OPS of .767. There is no way he is one of the top 25 prospects in baseball.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 30, 2008 2:02 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I do the same

As a quick and dirty way of minimizing big aberrations, but Revere (like Ichiro) strikes me as someone who, with his speed and hitting approach, you can count on having a pretty ridiculous BABIP.

by gogotabata on Aug 30, 2008 2:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

His speed is off the charts. Some guys just have the ability to have insane BABIP due to their line drive/speed abilities.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 30, 2008 4:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ichiro's career BABIP is .357

Give that to Revere and his OPS is still in like the low .800s.

And considering how unique Ichiro is, I’ll believe someone can match him when I see it happen.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 30, 2008 5:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Revere

He might not reach Ichiro’s level of production, but has the potential to be a game changing type of player by utilizing his speed.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 8:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If he's not as good as Ichiro, he's definitely not "game changing"...

because I don’t think Ichiro is “game changing”. Ichiro is good, but he’s also been probably the most consistently overrated player in baseball for the last 5 years, with the arguable exception of Derek Jeter.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 31, 2008 1:29 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL

Is this even serious? You may not be a fan of Ichiro but how many other guys can change a game with a bat like his, speed like his, a glove like his, or an arm like his?

Look at his averages the past 5 years:

2004 – .372
2005 – .303
2006 – .322
2007 – .351
2008 – .311

People may love on base, but a hit is still more important. The fact remains that you cna’t drive in a man from second with a walk. Add in the fact that he is routinely among the league leaders in steals and has one of the top arms in baseball, stating that he is ‘probably the most consistently overrated player in baseball for the last 5 years, with the arguable exception of Derek Jeter’ is just plain wrong.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 31, 2008 1:46 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also

With an average as high as his he is never a detriment to on base percentage.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 31, 2008 1:51 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Driving in a runner at second

You can’t do it with an infield single either. Power counts.

by yellomellojello on Aug 31, 2008 10:11 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Have you watched Ichiro?

He hits his share of line drives.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 31, 2008 10:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Also,

I never stated power wasn’t important. I am a big fan of a guy like Dunn with his great power and on base skills. However, I cannot accept the logic that Ichiro is one of the most overrated players during the last five seasons. He has a great all around game and can impact a game more then most.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 31, 2008 10:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My reply yesterday got swallowed up by the scheduled downtime

Bottom line, Ichiro’s offense, while good, has never been MVP level. His career EqA is .295. (EqA counts singles more than walks and credits steals, so those are non-issues with regard to it.) Opinions on his defense range from “good CF” to “average RF” with seemingly no agreement.

For the last 4 years, Ichiro’s value to the Mariners has been essentially the same as Mark Ellis’s value to the Athletics. If you would characterize Ichiro as “game changing,” you’d better be prepared to do the same for Mark Ellis.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 31, 2008 7:13 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

LOL

Yes, Ichiro = Mark Ellis

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL!!!!!!

Spoken only like a true A’s fan can.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 31, 2008 7:27 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

BTW

Baseball isn’t played on spread sheets.

"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift

by King Billy Royal on Aug 31, 2008 7:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

You're kidding me

I seriously thought that it was.

Seriously. It’s not just a computer game? You mean it? My whole outlook on life has now changed.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Aug 31, 2008 8:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Paul, what say you and me get out of our mothers' basements and see the world?

Hell, maybe talk to a girl even!

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Aug 31, 2008 11:36 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Feh

The question is how well Eqa evaluates the value of a walk in relation to a hit or an sb. I’d be inclined to ask about Ichiro’s WPA, but I think his position as a leadoff hitter would take away from his performance on such a context dependent stat (it is a great tool for seeing just who got those big hits, tho). I really don’t love WPA/LI, either. Besides, these stats are inherently unfair to a player like Ichiro who derives much of his value from his terrific defense (and his arm does scare off a fair number of baserunners over the course of a season) and from added bases (first to third, second to home, first to home). I am curious if you have access to Bill James Online’s +/- defensive stats, as I’d like to know what those say (I don’t really trust most defensive stats.)

 I do think you’re wrong about Ichiro having NEVER played at an MVP level. His 2004 season was pretty obviously MVP caliber, as was his 2001 (though Jason Giambi probably deserved it). As far as I can see, in those seasons where Ichiro can muster a BA >350, he probably has a shot at MVP. Otherwise, he’s “merely” an All-Star. Further, While I understand that Mark Ellis plays fantastic defense at 2b, I think it’s foolhardy to call him an equal to Ichiro. Game changing, in this context, refers to “big plays”, in all likelihood. XBH, taking the extra base, and dynamite defense (there needs to be a counting stat for this, btw). I really have a hard time believing that Mark “Sub-.250 BA 2/4 seasons, 90 or lower slg-heavy OPS+” Ellis is more of a game changer than Ichiro.

It’s unlikely that Ben Revere will become Ichiro, but it’s quite possible that he’s a very special talent. I’m interested to see what his BABIP will look like as he moves up to better fields and better defenses, as I do believe he’s a dynamic enough offensive talent to keep up the hitting. Personally, I think he could be a very good one.

by GuyinNY on Sep 1, 2008 1:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

EqA evaluates walks correctly relative to hits and SBs

Baseball analysts have been working on linear weights formulas for about the last 90 years, and all of them have come up with essentially the same results. It is as “right” as any stat will ever be.

As for the nitty-gritty of the comparison, from 2005 on Mark Ellis has been about 5 runs above average with the bat, 20 above average with the glove (and on this one, every metric I’ve seen agrees), and 5 above average for playing second base. Ichiro has been about 25 above average with the bat, somewhere between horrible and awesome with the glove (so I’m calling it average) and 5 above average for playing center field. That puts both of them at about +3 wins over average, which is a very good player.

Ichiro’s best seasons with the bat have been about 40 RAA offensively. For comparison, last year A-Rod and Magglio Ordonez were around 50-60 RAA offensively. Giambi’s ridonkulous 2001 was 93 BRAA by Baseball Prospectus’s count.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 1, 2008 4:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks for clearing that up about EqA.

I was wondering how accurate it might have been since I know that they’ve fooled with the secret sauce on VORP. I wasn’t aware of efforts to quantify the game through linear weights 90 years ago; only starting with Pete Palmer in the 70’s. Perhaps you’re thinking of Branch Rickey?

Now, I’m going to have to take umbrage with the offensive statistics you cite. Looking up the statistics since 2005 on fangraphs, I noticed :
1) Ichiro plays ALOT more than Mark Ellis does.
2) Ellis has had NEGATIVE offensive value in 2 of the last 4 seasons.
3) We don’t need to bother with converting BRAA to wins, as REW does that for us. Ellis has been worth .05 wins since the start of the 2005 season with his bat (.23 BRAA, if you add it up). Meanwhile, Ichiro has been worth 7.21 wins adding up his REW (51.4 BRAA, if you add it up). I don’t see where their offense is equal. Ichiro also blows Ellis away in WPA/LI. If I’m misusing these stats, please tell me how.

Defensively, I still think that you’re underrating Ichiro. Does the near-uniform position of scouts and people around baseball that Ichiro is a terrific outfielder sway you at all? I realize that you lean strongly towards objective analysis, but I think it’s futile to totally disregard the opinion of those around the game. Crediting Ichiro as a defensive standout, which most scouts still seem to agree on, would blow this even further open. Even crediting Ellis with a 20 run advantage defensively, Ichiro is still worth roughly 30 more runs, or 3 wins.

Getting back to the original question of whether or not Ichiro is more of a game changer than Mark Ellis, then, well, Ichiro DOES make more contact/get on more frequently/do more on the basepaths. In the popular notion of being a game changer, Ichiro is better at taking the extra base/advancing runners, though Ellis will hit more homers and they are probably defensive equals. Ellis is a fine player, and a terrific defensive 2b, but Ichiro is a likely future Hall of Famer, and there’s no shame in the fact that Ichiro is just plain a better player.

Regarding the MVP debate, Giambi was a hamfisted 1b playing in the steroid era (and in time of extreme offense, it’s easier to come by a monster season, even relative to league). Giambi probably did deserve the MVP over Ichiro that year, but to base an MVP solely off his offensive production is foolhardy. In any event, nobody would argue with Maggs’ or A-Rod’s 2007 seasons as superior to Ichiro’s MVP 2001 season. I don’t think there’d be much argument about his 2004 campaign, either though that’s actually his best season.

by GuyinNY on Sep 2, 2008 2:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fangraphs uses BRAA to mean something different than what Baseball Prospectus does

I don’t fault you for the mistake, because it’s confusing terminology. What fangraphs means by BRAA is “how many runs this hit was worth to his team.” As a result it counts more heavily for hitting with RISP, etc. BPro’s BRAA is linear weights based, and doesn’t give “extra credit” for clutch hitting.

Might have more later.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 2, 2008 4:12 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hrm..

Thanks for clearing that up. To be honest, I’d rather we use FanGraphs BRAA, if we’re using BRAA, because it adjusts for context. Doesn’t it make sense to reward someone for getting the big hit? In any event, we don’t have to stick with BRAA, either of the BP or FanGraph variety.

 BRAA is but one of several stats where Ichiro wins out. Ichiro kills Ellis on WPA and WPA/LI (context neutral), kills him in GPA, OPS+, and is far superior using conventional counting stats. No stat yet has a monopoly on determining player value, but Ichiro wins in most categories.

Most of all, most of Ellis’ value is derived from his 2005 season (an excellent season by any measure, but hardly enough to make up for replacement level offense in 2006 and 2008.) Ichiro plays more often, and is usually playing at a higher level than Ellis offensively. Moving to defense, Ichiro, as I said earlier, Ichiro is praised by most stats and virtually all scouts. Personally, I really only have faith in Dewan’s +/-, and even that is tenuous at best. If someone has access to those stats, I’d be very appreciative. My hunch is that those are very favorable to Ichiro as well.

by GuyinNY on Sep 3, 2008 11:26 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

WPA/LI is not context neutral

It’s leverage-neutral. WPA/LI is essentially Fangraphs BRAA translated into win terms.

In any event, while I agree that Ellis is not nearly as good offensively, the defense issue is really the key question here. And the statement that Ichiro is praised by “most stats” just doesn’t hold water. He’s rated as quite bad by RZR; we don’t have full UZR numbers but he’s not among the best in the category. By contrast, I’m not aware of a single stat that has not ranked Ellis in the top 3 second basemen in the AL for at least the past three years.

I mean, speaking purely on a subjective level, you can quantify the way in which Ellis “changes the game” a lot more easily than Ichiro. If you hit a ball to the right side of the infield and don’t absolutely club it, it will be an out. Certain hitters are going to have really bad games when Ellis is in the field, especially groundball-prone left-handers.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2008 4:04 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Top 10 is definitely ridiculous

But I do think you could make a reasonable argument that he should be in the top 20 or thereabouts

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 2, 2008 4:46 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't particularly trust eyeball ratings of Ichiro's D

Because once people see his arm they tend to ignore the question of whether he gets to balls.

by jdr on Sep 3, 2008 2:54 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Scouts

I’d imagine that most scouts can get past his arm and just pay attention to the number of balls he gets to. This is what they’re trained to do. Ichiro may have a great arm, but he’s not Clemente (who is?) and scouts have seen that sort of thing before. He earns praise for all aspects of his defense.

by GuyinNY on Sep 3, 2008 10:30 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I wouldn't imagine that at all...

One really impressive feature of a player’s game will routinely cause scouts to subjectively ignore other weaknesses that he has.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 3, 2008 3:53 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Wait, what?

“nobody would argue with Maggs’ or A-Rod’s 2007 seasons as superior to Ichiro’s MVP 2001 season.”

Actually, I would argue for A-Rod’s 2007 in a heartbeat. Being an excellent defensive rightfielder and very good baserunner doesn’t nearly make up the difference in offensive contribution. Not nearly.

by aap212 on Sep 3, 2008 9:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Typo

What I meant to say was just what you are saying. A-Rod + Maggs > Ichiro. Same goes for Ichiro’s 2004. Insert “inferior” for “superior”.

However, just thinking about it, Ichiro’s 2004 would be a viable MVP season in the AL this year, as well as in 2006 (maybe).

by GuyinNY on Sep 3, 2008 10:28 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OK good

But I would still take this year’s A-Rod, Sizemore, or Kinsler—aside from some health issues.

by aap212 on Sep 3, 2008 12:48 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ehh...

A-Rod’s missed too much time for my taste, and Kinsler’s got a similar grievance (and a bad glove). I would probably lean in favor of Sizemore, though. He’s just been unbelievable this season, though he does give up 30 points of OBP and 100 points of BA to Ichiro 2004, in addition to something likely on the order of 30 base knocks. Assuming Sizemore keeps it up for the rest of the season, though, I’d probably give him the MVP.

by GuyinNY on Sep 3, 2008 1:09 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mind-bottling falsehoods being peddled above

1) Mark Ellis hasn’t been healthy for for at least a 1/4 of that time.

2) His EQA isn’t even close to Ichiro’s over that period so EVEN if he was on the field for that entire time he still wouldn’t be as valuable offensively as Ichiro. No idea where you get the idea that thease #s are the same.

3) Using another BP stat (WARP3 which actually accounts for defense where they are about even and how much they are actually ya know on the field) Ichiro has been worth on average around 9 wins a year. Ellis has accounted for a little over 6. That’s a pretty big difference.

by clubberlang on Sep 5, 2008 8:28 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Who the fuck said Ellis was equal to Ichiro offensively?

If you’re going to abuse me for “peddling mind-boggling falsehoods,” the least you could do is actually fucking read what I’ve written. “Value to a team” does not mean “value to a team, on offense.” Surprisingly enough, when you insert random words into a sentence, it tends to change its meaning and/or render it gibberish. Usually we blame the person inserting the random words for that.

Also, FRAA sucks.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 6, 2008 12:34 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Okay

Then by exactly what metric are their contributions to their teams just about equal? I thought you were using EQA (apparently you were only using it when you thought it helped your argument). Unfortunately when you write incoherently it tends to force people to try to fill in the blanks.

Also technically WARP uses FRAR, but I’m sure you knew that.

by clubberlang on Sep 6, 2008 4:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Mind-bottling?

BCB's "very own marginally deserving all-star!"

by battlekow on Sep 6, 2008 2:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

My Top 15

1. David Price – Best pitcher in the history of everything
2. Matt Weiters – AJ Pierzinsky future but more power
3. Ryan Bones – Roy Oswalt clone
4. Billy Rowell – Big bad voodoo daddy. Richie Sexson with worse average
5. Angel Villalona – The Tom Brady of baseball, without the looks
6. Josh Vitters – You can’t spell World Series MVP without V for Vitters
7. Juan Duran — The next Babe Ruth?
8. James McDonald — All aboard this phenom
9. Juan Francisco — Power galore.
10. Trevor Cahill – Jesse Litsch part two
11. Jeremy Jeffress — The next Darren Dreifort? I hope so!
12. Jemile Weeks — A little worse than Rickie
13. Matt LaPorta — Overrated but still could be ok
14. Adrian Cardenas — Ronnie Belliard upside.
15. Travis Snider — Could be the next Eric Hinske

I've got a McPheever, and only JoJo Reyes can help me!

by Buzz Bissinger on Aug 30, 2008 10:08 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   1 recs

+1

Ok, I laughed out loud at this one. Top quote “Ronnie Belliard upside”!!! Does that meanthat he has the potential to develop the same size backside?

"God, I'm from Cleveland. When is it going to be our time?"

by BStal11 on Aug 30, 2008 10:40 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i must not read this site enough or something

"If you hit .440 with 20 bombs, you don't have to do s---. You don't have to bring a glove to practice, just hit and leave whenever you want. You can bring a 40 and smoke a cigarette and call me from the parking lot asking me what time the game is, and I'll tell you. You can even say 'F--- you, Steve!' Actually, don't say that, that wouldn't be very nice." -Steve Friend, Head Coach, Chabot College Gladiators Baseball

by flipgatey3 on Aug 30, 2008 11:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Outstanding!

But you are seriously underrating Juan Duran and James McDonald.

by siddfynch on Aug 30, 2008 12:15 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I love it

Absolutely hilarious! Really did make me laugh out loud :D

I love these ones:

1. David Price – Best pitcher in the history of everything
4. Billy Rowell – Big bad voodoo daddy. Richie Sexson with worse average
5. Angel Villalona – The Tom Brady of baseball, without the looks
6. Josh Vitters – You can’t spell World Series MVP without V for Vitters
14. Adrian Cardenas — Ronnie Belliard upside.

LOL!

by Take3 on Aug 30, 2008 2:56 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Great list

but I would probably switch Fowler and Heyward around though.

I am like your Dan Aykroyd and biglow would be Jane, the ignorant slut. -Chad

by thecoolest on Aug 30, 2008 12:53 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ya...

I do think Heyward should perhaps be higher on the list. I am starting to become a big fan of his.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 8:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tommy Hanson

Again where’s Hanson on this list?

by Jay212033 on Aug 30, 2008 5:32 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hanson?

I don’t like extreme flyball pitchers.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 8:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

RE:

Well you don’t like Johan Santana! He’s been awesome this year and he’s better than half the pitchers you have on that list. You should put your personal feelings aside when you make a list of the TOP players.

by Jay212033 on Aug 30, 2008 11:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually

I don’t like Johan Santana. He has horrible mechanics and it’s just a matter of time before he blows out his elbow or shoulder. The Mets are really gonna regret signing him to such a huge deal.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 11:57 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

But...

That doesn’t change the fact that Santana was the best pitcher in baseball for at least four years. Even if you think his arm is going to fall off, if any player on that list could be guaranteed to be the best pitcher in baseball for any four years, he would be top five material, easy.

by aap212 on Aug 31, 2008 4:19 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Late to the party here...

But i can’t let this go…. Johan Santana does not have horrible mechanics, he has very clean, very good mechanics, and the statement “its just a matter of time before he blows out his elbow or shoulder.”

Well lets see, hes thrown over 1500 innings in his career without so much as even missing a start.

Now every pitcher has a pretty good shot at an elbow or shoulder injury, but this will have nothing to do with his mechanics. You want someone whos a ticking timebomb, take carlos zambrano.

Here is a pic of Johan just before release… look at the great elbow alignment and elbow height, glove is loose not stiff, those are great mechanics.

http://nbcsportsmedia.msnbc.com/j/msnbc/Components/ArtAndPhoto-Fronts/SPORTS/080331/g-sp-080331-johan-santana2-vmed-345p.widec.jpg

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Sep 11, 2008 5:08 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Uhh

Chris Tillman not even getting a sniff? BA is probably going to rank him top ten in the game and he didn’t make your top 25…

I think you also snubbed Gamel and Davis big time.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 30, 2008 7:56 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tillman

Tillman is a solid prospect no doubt. However, from what I’ve read, he doesn’t profile as a frontline starter (like the others on the list). Furthermore, he needs a lot of work on his control, and the flyballs worry me.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 8:23 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

No disputing that he needs work

But for the majority of the season he was the youngest player at AA at age 20 and was maintaining an extremely respectable ERA/WHIP. The reason BA and others fawn over this guy is because his ceiling and more so the numbers he has already posted.

Like Matusz, he shouldn’t drop below #2 or #3 at worst, but may not have the stuff to be an ace of a staff.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 30, 2008 8:54 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cabrera

shouldn’t have dropped below a #2 or 3 at worst, how well did that work out?

by bushe on Sep 2, 2008 1:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Uhhhhh

Work in progress. Hey, he is only 28! Cabrera was highly touted because of his raw stuff a lot more than Matusz and Tillman are.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Sep 3, 2008 3:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tillman has as high a ceiling as any pitching prospect (assuming he sorts out his command issues)

Fastball: 91-94 mph, can touch 95
Curveball: 12-6, plus
Changeup: Above-average and has improved dramatically over the past year

Nice frame. Smooth mechanics. Just needs to work on that command. I personally have Tillman in my top 10 prospects.

by N. Frederick Cody on Aug 31, 2008 2:25 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Tillman is incredible

but he flat out walks too many batters to be top 10. Control is not a minor issue it is a very very large one.

by bushe on Sep 2, 2008 1:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Disagree

Walks are troubling, but unless you’re in Jason Neighborgall territory, a 20-year old who strikes out more than ten batters per nine in Double-A with the scouting reports to match is a top prospect.

by aap212 on Sep 2, 2008 3:03 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well

High BBs + High flyball rate = potential disaster.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Sep 2, 2008 6:47 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yep
High BBs + High flyball rate = potential disaster.


We’re learning this form Gio Gonzalez already.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Sep 2, 2008 6:58 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

So I messed that up.

My point is, this has been the problem with Gio so far.

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Sep 2, 2008 6:59 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

And as we all know

The book on Gio Gonzalez is closed.

by mraver on Sep 2, 2008 8:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually

I don’t have a problem agreeing that Tillman could be a #2 or #3 guy.

As you mentioned, his performance in AA at such a young age is noteworthy.

Personally, I just believe that the guys on the list have the potential to be more, that’s all.

Tillman is definitely a fine pitching prospect.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 30, 2008 9:43 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Alright

I see what you’re saying, but you differ from most rankings then. Baseball America and others will rank prospects on likelihood to reach the majors and be a consistent contributor. According to what you just said, you think that some of the guys on the list can be better than him but all the pieces have to fall into place and it is likely that Tillman will be superior than them in the long run although the others may have a higher ceiling.

My best game plan is to sit on the bench and call out specific instructions like 'C'mon Boog,' 'Get ahold of one, Frank,' or 'Let's go, Brooks.' -Earl Weaver

by Baltimo on Aug 30, 2008 10:10 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Funny

I find it funny reading these posts…solely because everyone overrates the prospects they have on their fantasy team and underrate players they missed out on. Some of these posts are really transparent.

by goose102977 on Aug 31, 2008 1:09 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Rankings

You have Derek Holland rated way too high. No way he’s even top 25. Daryl Jones? Your rankings are kind of messed up.

by maneatingbaby on Aug 31, 2008 8:49 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ok

I guess it depends how good you think Scott Kazmir is. I think Holland has that kind of potential, which is why I have probably ranked far higher than what the majority of the community would have done.

As for Daryl Jones, he is another extremely underrated outfield prospect. In my opinion, he is the the leadoff hitter of the future for the Cardinals and will hit .300, draw a good amount of walks, hit 20+ HRs, and steal 30 bases. With that in mind, I think he deserves the ranking I gave him.

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Aug 31, 2008 9:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response

Holland is good, very good even, but I don’t know why Kazmir would work as a comp. I could be obvious and throw out the fact that when Kazmir when Holland’s age, he was already an above-average starter in the major leagues But okay, I’ll play ball a bit. Scouting-wise I think the 20 year old Kazmir just blows away the 21 year old Holland. Kazmir had a 70 slider and an average change that flashed plus, Holland just can’t compare to that.

If it sounds like I’m dissing Holland, I’m definitely not. He’s a very good prospect. But this hype train is just a wee bit out of control.

by mrkupe on Aug 31, 2008 9:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think most people are being pretty reasonable on Holland

I’m actually surprised by how few people have gotten as excited as some people about a guy who came out of nowhere and seems like he might be a terrific prospect.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 3, 2008 11:07 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if he was the next Kazmir

he’d be rater at #2 or #1 on this list, 6 may be to high, but if you look at what Holland brings to the table and the #‘s he’s got, top 25 is not unreasonable, its just kinda hard to believe that he went from total unknown to this in under a year

by blalock84 on Sep 4, 2008 12:47 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If he was the next Kazmir

He’d be in the majors already. Scott Kazmir had put up abut two full years of above-average starting in the majors by the time he was the age Holland is now.

by aap212 on Sep 4, 2008 1:10 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I don't think I was clear

I think Holland is a very good prospect – somewhere between 10 and 20 or so. I was just commenting that considering how fast he rose, it’s surprising how few people have said he is the next Kazmir, or should be in the top 2.

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 4, 2008 10:06 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair enough

But there are two factors here: one is that it’s pretty difficult to make an objective case for him over guys like Price, Bumgarner, Cahill, and even Tillman and Feliz, which makes it difficult for him to crack the top 10-12 on a reasonable person’s list.

The second is that Dewey has been so relentless in his promotion of Holland, reason be damned, that it’s redundant for anyone else to even like the guy.

Somewhere between 10 and 20 does seem right, though.

by aap212 on Sep 4, 2008 10:16 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response

Okay, I’ll bite. What would the difference be between “Derek Holland, No. 10 prospect” and “Derek Holland, No. 19 prospect”? Like, what can I expect out of the No. 10 guy that I wouldn’t get out of the No. 19 guy?

I’m totally confused by the idea that a “reasonable” person can’t have Holland within the top 10 prospects but should have him between 10 and 20. If you want to tell me that Holland is not a top 10 prospect but is in fact a fringe top 50 prospect, then we’ve got something to talk about. Then we’re starting to see some meaningful separation in the projections for the guy.

by mrkupe on Sep 4, 2008 1:24 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Fair point

And of course the risk factor with any of these guys, particularly the pitchers, renders most of the difference in what we can see now among these guys irrelevant. But to me it’s a matter of ordering and methodology. There may not be much of a difference in what it says about a guy to put him 9th or 19th, but unless you’re a scout who’s personally seen all these guys thoroughly, I don’t see what methodology you could use that would put Holland ahead of all but two pitching prospects.

by aap212 on Sep 4, 2008 1:30 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response

“I don’t see what methodology you could use that would put Holland ahead of all but two pitching prospects.”

This year’s numbers are very pretty. So if you’re a fan of power lefties who post good numbers with additional weight given to higher levels of competition, then sure, you like him. But frankly I don’t really see it just yet. Jim Callis over at BA posted a report just the other day that said Holland has a 55 change and a 45-50 breaking ball . . .that’s solid stuff but comping him to guys like Kazmir (who had 2 70 pitches when he was 2 years younger than Holland is now) and Lester (who had three above-average pitches and the potential for 4) is just asking to be disappointed, IMO.

Thinking about all the guys in the minors off the top of my head, I’d say that Holland has a pretty good chance to be one of the top 10-15 pitching prospects by year’s end, for what it’s worth.

by mrkupe on Sep 4, 2008 1:44 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Exactly

My point was that only Dewey was talking about him like the next Scott Kazmir and Felix Hernandez. People are relatively calm about

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 4, 2008 2:20 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Brandon Wood

I am very suprised that not one person has mentioned Brandon Wood. He is still very young. He is 23 and in AAA and is having a very good season. He still meets the at-bat requirements to be considered a rookie (130 is the limit and he is under), though he will likely be over at the end of the season. Am I missing something on him? He still plays an average shortstop and with his bat he has the potential to be something very good. I think he initially got overrated for the ridiculous season he had where he hit something like 50 HRs and then sort of lost his luster when he didn’t do that again. I still think that he can hit about .275 with 25-30 HRs with an average SS. That is very good and I believe worthy of a spot in the top 30, not to mention top 15. Granted he hasn’t performed that great in limited action and is blocked at SS by Izturis and Aybar. If he changes organizations I think he can have a very successful career.

by parnz on Sep 3, 2008 3:59 PM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

+1

www.loftylantern.com

by OldProspects on Sep 3, 2008 4:31 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Response

I’m very skeptical that he can hit .275 in the majors . . .VERY long swing and his plate discipline, while not awful, isn’t quite enough to compensate that much.

Even if he succeeds (and I think he can), somebody is going to have to put up with at least a season and maybe two of rather trying times, I think. Of course, the Angels really don’t seem inclined to move him . . .it seems increasingly obvious that if he busts, they want him to be THEIR bust and not somebody else’s.

by mrkupe on Sep 3, 2008 4:32 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Actually

It seems like they would rather let him rot on the vine than give him the opportunity to succeed or bust.

by aap212 on Sep 3, 2008 5:00 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Being "blocked" by Maicer Izturis and Erick Aybar

…is just so wrong….

Never, Never, NEVER give up

by hero66 on Sep 3, 2008 7:22 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

They hit for a higher batting average

Therefore they must be better hitters. Anyone who thinks otherwise is a Communist.

Your 2008 Athletics: It's Nothing Personal.

by PaulThomas on Sep 4, 2008 1:18 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Defense matters, though

Iztruis and Aybar are both mighty fine defensive SS from what my eye balls have seen.

Can Wood play major league average defense at SS or is he a 3b?

The 40 Trumps All!!!

by thedirkatron on Sep 4, 2008 6:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

It's tough for Wood

because the Angels are in playoff contention and they have one of their better players at 3B in Figgins. I know that Figgins can play other positions like 2B and OF, but the better lineup would be with him at 3B, Kendrick at 2B, and Vlad/Hunter/Juan Rivera/Matthews Jr./Willits in the OF. And just as I write this I see that Wood started at SS and went 0-4 with 2 K’s. There really isn’t a spot on the field where he could play or someone at his position could move to that is underperforming.

by parnz on Sep 4, 2008 7:29 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Derek "Lefty Jesus" Holland

Playoff start tonight: 7.1 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 1BB, 5 K

BELIEVE!!!!!!!

Now raise your goblet of rock. It's a toast to those who rock!

by Dewey Finn on Sep 4, 2008 12:37 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

the kid

had a one hit shutout until the 8th inning homer, he’s a balla… I believe in the dutch, left-handed Jesus!

by blalock84 on Sep 4, 2008 12:49 AM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

bumgarner tonight

8 innings, 10 k’s, 3 hits, 3 men picked off first. Also, prior to the game, the pitching coach talked with andy baggarly about his improved slider and developing changeup. Considering he won the triple crown in the SAL league (lowest ERA in the minors) and had one of the most dominating minor league performances in recent memory, he should probably be top 25. If you take away the first two starts where they tried changing his mechanics, his ERA would be 0.90 right now, just something to think about.

by zeisenbe on Sep 4, 2008 2:59 AM EDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Bumgarner looks great, but

I have fallen in love with too many pitching prospects who have dominated at the A ball level… the real test for a prospect is AA, this has been proven to be the biggest jump in the minors, and is a real test for a prospect, so I will hold my excitement for him until after he reaches AA.

Check out my baseball analysis blog FANalytics

by jbluestone on Sep 11, 2008 5:11 PM EDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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