Where Did This Guy Come From? Kila Kaaihue
Micah Kilakila Kaaihue was drafted by the Kansas City Royals in the 15th round of the 2002 draft, out of high school in Hawaii. He brought two things to the table: power, and lots of it, and good strike zone judgment. He didn't show the power in rookie ball, hitting just .259/.381/.381, but he did draw a lot of walks. I did not rate short-season players back then, but he would have been a Grade C.
I first saw him play in 2003, when he hit .238/.355/.380 with 11 homers and 67 walks in 395 at-bats for Burlington in the Midwest League. He was slow on the bases, but actually had some mobility around the bag at first. He worked the count very well, but his swing wasn't quite in gear just yet. . .the power and strength were there in raw form, but he was still trying to find the right balance between aggression and patience. I gave him a Grade C in the 2004 book, but noted that he had sleeper potential.
Kaaihue returned to Burlington in 2004 and hit .236/.361/.431, slight improvement with better power production. I gave him another Grade C, noting that while he had repeated the league and had improved only slightly, he was still quite young at age 20.
High Desert in 2005 was a much better hitting environment than Burlington, and Kaaihue responded, hitting .304/.428/.497 with 20 homers, 97 walks, and 97 strikeouts in 493 at-bats. I moved him up to Grade C+, but resisted a higher grade because of the thin air/small parks factor of the Cal League, wanting to see how he would adapt to Double-A.
2006 was a disaster. Kaaihue was bothered by nagging injuries all year, but when he did play he was horrible, hitting .202/.305/.303. He continued to draw lots of walks, but his power seemed to have vanished. I saw him play several times, and he just looked really confused. His swing was extremely mechanical, not smooth at all, and he looked very passive and unsure of himself. I left him out of the 2007 book due to space reasons, but had him rated back as a Grade C, still young enough to rebound but with a lot of work to do.
The Royals sent him back to the Carolina League to begin 2007, trying to regain some confidence. He hit .251/.360/.420 in 60 games for Wilmington, which isn't bad for that park and league. Promoted back to Wichita at mid-season, he hit .246/.359/.447, with 41 walks and 40 strikeouts in 244 at-bats. I saw him play for Wichita, and he seemed to have smoothed out his swing compared to '06. But overall I was thinking that he just wasn't going to hit quite enough at higher levels and would be a Triple-A slugger. I gave him a Grade C in the 2008 book, noting that he still had some sleeper potential but was a long shot.
2008 has been a monster season: .314/.463/.624 in the Texas League, .330/.457/.649 in the Pacific Coast League, 35 homers, 101 walks, and 63 strikeouts in 381 at-bats. Can this possibly be for real? I have not had a chance to see him myself, but everyone I have spoken with who has seen him says that he seems to have figured something out, finding a strong balance between aggression and passivity, and fixing the mechanical flaws in his swing.
Statistically, the BB/K/AB ratio is outstandingly good. The fact that he has continued to smash the ball after being promoted to Triple-A is a marker that this is real. His BB/K/AB mark was 80/41/287 in Double-A, and 21/22/94 in Triple-A. . .the strikeouts are up against better pitching, but even a 1:1 BB/K ratio is just fine.
In short, I think this is real, genuine improvement. If I were the Royals I would call him up in September and let him play as much as possible. I don't think this is a Calvin Pickering type deal, a minor league slugger having a career/fluke type year. Kaaihue is still just 24. I'm not saying he's going to be a star, but I don't see any reason why he can't hit .260 with a high on-base percentage and above average power. And the Royals could use that.
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He's still just...
a 24 year old 1B prospect with good, but not eye-popping numbers. Someone to watch, but nothing to get excited about, IMHO.
by alskor on Aug 28, 2008 1:57 PM EDT 0 recs
Those numbers aren't eye popping to you?
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 28, 2008 2:24 PM EDT
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Not for a first baseman
No.
Especially not when we’re talking Texas League and he’s 24.
Another warning sign for me is his low doubles total. Yes, he’s slugging .600-something, but its ALL home runs. He has only 14 doubles and 35 HRs. That seems very fluky to me, especially when the lion’s share of the homers came in Texas League play.
I dont buy it. I dont really like him.
by alskor on
Aug 28, 2008 2:55 PM EDT
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But he does have 9 HR in 94 AAA at bats
Small sample size, but I think its a data point to show it wasn’t the Texas League that caused the spike in home runs.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Aug 28, 2008 2:57 PM EDT
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More than the Texas League?
Not at all.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
Aug 28, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
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League OPS by year
Texas
2006 .760
2007 .745
2008 .755
PCL
2006 .757
2007 .783
2008 .790
by dkdc on
Aug 28, 2008 6:48 PM EDT
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Shouldn't we be looking at home run rates?
That’s what alskor seems to suggest is flukey.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Aug 28, 2008 6:50 PM EDT
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At Bats per HR (lower rate means more frequent HRs)
Texas
2006 37.3
2007 38.2
2008 39.2
PCL
2006 38.0
2007 34.7
2008 31.4
by dkdc on
Aug 28, 2008 11:47 PM EDT
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Thanks!
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Aug 29, 2008 11:02 AM EDT
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AAA BABIP .364
K rate jumped 10% upon moving to AAA
BB rate dropped 6% when moving to AAA
9 HR , 1 2B in 29 hits in 25 games
Lets see him play 20 more games and see if he balances out some….
Looks like hes on a great power streak right now
by laxtonto on
Aug 28, 2008 5:05 PM EDT
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Maybe he just hits the ball so hard everytime that it goes out of the park? No room for doubles. You want doubles? You’ll see them at Kauffman Stadium with the huge gaps there.
Don't forget to send your broken maples to the US Forest Service.
by 306008 on
Aug 28, 2008 3:40 PM EDT
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You're a moron
if you aren’t impressed by a guy slugging 650 in Triple A, no matter what position he plays.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
Aug 28, 2008 6:29 PM EDT
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Only morons resort to name calling
idiot.
Its all HRs. I guess we’ll see when he flames out though.
by alskor on
Aug 28, 2008 9:28 PM EDT
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Yeah, home runs suck
Doubles are much better. Home run power is meaningless. Gap power for doubles is much more useful.
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 29, 2008 5:04 AM EDT
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Does no one see what Im saying...?
Look, when a guy goes to two leagues that strongly boost HRs and hitting in general and has a breakout season you have to take it with a grain of salt.
When we look at his jump – the AVG is essentially fueled by BABIP and league effects. The OBP is essentially fueled by the artificially high AVG. Which brings us to the SLG
The SLG is the most impressive part of his breakthrough, I think we can all agree. BUT it is made up of strange component factors – 35 HRs, but only 14 2Bs. That’s a big flashing red light that something is fluky here. Unless someone can explain to me why he would only hit more HRs but not more 2Bs. I dont think it can be explained.
So, although the guy has upped his game a good bit, we should be leery that it is all real improvement. Most likely, a good amount of those HRs would be 2Bs if he was playing in a neutral environment. And a good amount would probably be flyballs to the track.
GUYS WHO MAKE A LEGIT BREAKTHROUGH DO NOT SUDDENLY HIT A BUNCH OF HRs WITHOUT ALSO HITTING A BUNCH OF DOUBLES. This stinks to high heaven of a fluke year boosted by league and park effects. There is actually a breakthrough year underneath, Im certain, but IMHO its being overrated.
Even if we want to argue he’s a HR but not a 2Bs hitter – which seems foolish to me, but we could say he’s an aging Frank Thomas type – Then I would still remain skeptical given the leagues and parks he played in this year that his HR hitting skill would translate to MLB.
by alskor on
Aug 29, 2008 1:22 PM EDT
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Thank you
& sorry to get snippy, but I dont enjoy being called a “moron.”
by alskor on
Aug 29, 2008 2:39 PM EDT
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I don't actually see what you're saying
First of all his BABIP is .302. Yes, that’s significantly higher than it was in 2006 or 2007 (though significantly lower than it was in 2005), but not exactly in the mid .400s. If you think that his BABIP is high, then what would his real batting average be? Instead of being a .317 hitter, a .280 hitter? Considering he has an OBP of .460, that might bring his numbers down to mean human levels, but even a .420 OBP guy is damn good. The reason is OBP is so high has little to do with his batting average, and more to do with him walking 101 times in 385 ABs. The main reason his batting average is so strong isn’t because of BABIP, but because he hit 36 homers and only struck out 40 times.
You’re right that his power numbers are unusual, but they’re not exactly unprecedented. Over his career, Ryan Howard has 159 HRs and 86 doubles. Over the last 3 years, he’s had a 135:64 ratio. In the last 3 years, Adam Dunn has had 114 homers and 68 doubles. Oftentimes, for major power hitters an unusually high percentage of their extra base hits are homers.
I can believe that part of his explosion is a function of his league or park, but I don’t believe that it is entirely that. If this was strictly him capitalizing on that, then how come in the Texas league, he is first in homers despite having at least 100 less atbats than all of his competitors? Did they play in a different league or in different parks? In the PCL, he hit 10 homers in 98 ABs. For reference, Chris Davis playing in the same league hit 10 homers too, but it took him 111 at bats. I’m not saying that Kaaihue is a better power hitter than Chris Davis, merely that the looks at the moment to be pretty real.
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Aug 29, 2008 4:47 PM EDT
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I never said all
In fact I went out of my way many times to say we are actually seeing improvement here, but that it is tempered by his ARL, the leagues he played in, the parks he played in, and the nature of the improvement.
You:
I can believe that part of his explosion is a function of his league or park, but I don’t believe that it is entirely that.
Me:
we should be leery that it is all real improvement.
There is actually a breakthrough year underneath, Im certain, but IMHO its being overrated.
My original point, which some found insulting and has been lost, was that If we took all the mitigating factors(age, league, park, etc…) into consideration and then adjusted for translation to the MLB level he’s really not anything special for a first base prospect – although he remains one of the better ones in the minors.
by alskor on
Aug 29, 2008 10:36 PM EDT
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Okaaay...
Your point, as I understood it, was to say that the major part of Kaaihue’s breakthrough was either a fluke or because of mitigating factors. I’m sorry if I exxaggerated that to “all” in my response.
My point was to argue that the main elements of his breakthrough came from walking a sensational amount and hitting for a ton of power. There is little reason to believe that the first is the result of league or park. The second is more questionable, but I think that him hitting for significantly more power than anybody else, even in a strong hitting environment, suggests that his power is for real.
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Aug 31, 2008 9:09 AM EDT
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+1
"When a true genius appears in the world, you may know him by this sign, that the dunces are all in confederacy against him."
-Jonathan Swift
by King Billy Royal on
Aug 28, 2008 7:04 PM EDT
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Any good comps for him?
I mean a guy who had couple of mediocre seasons, then at age 24, in his third go-round at a level, turned it on?
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on Aug 28, 2008 2:04 PM EDT 0 recs
Comp
Maybe it’s because of the walks, but I keep thinking of Kevin Youkilis. That kind of player. Maybe he won’t be as good as Youk, but I keep coming back to him when it comes to Kila.
by rdf8585 on Aug 28, 2008 2:22 PM EDT 0 recs
Youkilis never had that kind of power in the minors
Not saying that Kila’s better than Youkilis, just making a point.
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Aug 28, 2008 2:28 PM EDT
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Hafner?
Great power, great strike zone recogntion, late bloomer.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
Aug 28, 2008 6:31 PM EDT
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How about Cust?
Kila hasn’t been jerked around quite as much, but I seem to remember Cust switching positions a lot, and then getting different organizational philosophies constantly…
You walk too much be more aggressive.
You suck at being aggressive, why don’t you work the count?
etc, etc, but creating some yo-yo type seasons
If it wasn't for disappointments, I wouldn't have any appointments.
by kings33 on
Aug 29, 2008 10:52 AM EDT
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Kevin Mitchell
I’ve seen Kaaihue play several times, and have stated on this site before that he has Kevin Mitchell-type power. Not just that the ball can leave the park in the blink of an eye, but those of you who have played OF to any extent can pretty well judge where a ball will land when observing it from the side or from beyond the wall. In the case of Mitchell and Kaaihue (and obviously many others) the ball just doesn’t land where its trajectory indicates it should, but rather much…much deeper.
by Toad on
Aug 29, 2008 8:19 PM EDT
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That's the best comp I've been able to come up with
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 28, 2008 2:46 PM EDT
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Pena was
a 1st round pick who did really well at younger ages. A story that’s slightly similar, though they’re different players, is to Ryan Howard, who also just a solid 1B prospect until 24 when suddenly he became the best power hitter in the game. He even also broke out at AA though had a nice tryout in AAA that year. As players, obviously Kaaihue strikes out a hell of a lot less than Howard does, but both walk a lot and have a ton of power (albeit Howard has more). If this year is real for Kaaihue, he’s such an unusual player (world-class power without the strikeouts) that I don’t know of anybody who is quite like him, but this is the least terrible one I can think of.
www.loftylantern.com
by OldProspects on
Aug 28, 2008 4:02 PM EDT
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Not a bad comp
Although Howard never struggled as mightily as Kila did in 2006 and didn’t repeat levels like Kila did from 2006-2008.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Aug 28, 2008 5:35 PM EDT
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his brother
Kala Kaaihue, a year younger, shows up as his BPro comp every year-
Kala hit .298 .410 .583 in 89 games in the Carolina League- last year- but COMPLETELY fell apart at AA, hitting .127/.211/ .186 in 133 PAs upon promotion- he started this year terribly, but has hit .297/.439/.507 in 276 at bats from May onwards.
Brothers (Obviously) a year apart, three true outcome 1B types…Kala’s career minor league #s are .270/.389/.501 , Kila’s are: .262/.380/.446
Both completely wiped out their first go around in AA, Kila hit .199/ .303/.300 in 103 games there at age 22.
Kila strikes out quite a bit less…
by jpwf13 on Aug 28, 2008 3:45 PM EDT 0 recs
Comps are in part based on where they are from I think
Which IIRC they did to fix problems with Japanese players. So that’s probably the reason…
by alskor on
Aug 28, 2008 3:50 PM EDT
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well...
That, and the fact that they’re very similar players.
by mraver on
Aug 28, 2008 4:57 PM EDT
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bloodlines!!!
OMG Banny. FWIW I am only crdtng u w/3 runs allwd bc of DDJ OMFG
by devil_fingers on
Aug 28, 2008 6:10 PM EDT
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His new grade
What grade would people give him now?
For me, he’s a solid B.
by rdf8585 on Aug 28, 2008 5:22 PM EDT 0 recs
I don't know if I'd even go that high
I think B- if he finishes the season out well. I understand it’s been a pretty bad year for the Royals, but I don’t think Ka’aihue is really something to get that much excited about. The Royals already have a logjam at 1B (corner spots in general, really), and I don’t see Ka’aihue as much of a step up from the guys they’ve already got.
by mraver on
Aug 29, 2008 12:23 AM EDT
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Who is involved
in this alleged logjam at the corner spots?
by gordonrules on
Aug 29, 2008 12:44 AM EDT
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You can have a logjam without the players being particularly good
Gload is signed for next year already, and the Royals probably won’t just release him.
by thejd44 on
Aug 29, 2008 1:33 AM EDT
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no they won't release him
But Dayton was just on the radio a few days ago and said they “obviously” need more production out of the first base spot. I think most royals fans are cool with G-Load as a backup 1B/LF/RF, late inning defense guy, pinch hitter. Anything more though is pretty embarrassing.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 29, 2008 2:28 AM EDT
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I'd call it a surfeit of mediocrity
The Royals are looking for someone, anyone, to step up. If Kila can hit then the job is his. He should be called up day one the rosters expand.
by nmstar on
Aug 29, 2008 8:30 AM EDT
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Big time log jam
You know…Mark Teahen, uh…Ross Gload.
Yep. Big time.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 29, 2008 12:46 AM EDT
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The Royals do have a logjam at the corner spots
They’ve got guys playing at the corner positions at every minor league level! It is a massive logjam. Of course they aren’t any good. But boy, what a logjam of players!
This is just my opinion. I could easily be wrong.
by NYRoyal on
Aug 29, 2008 5:06 AM EDT
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"I don’t see Ka’aihue as much of a step up from the guys they’ve already got."
Um, do you know who they’ve already got? Ross Gload. My sister would be a step up from the guys they’ve got.
Relive Royals History at royalsretro.blogspot.com
by RoyalsRetro on
Aug 29, 2008 11:03 AM EDT
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Mark Twain said it best
“It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you’re a fool than to open it and remove all doubt”.
The only logjam the Royals have is a collection of crap at 1st base and the corner OF sports.
Founder of the Rowdy Hardy Fan Club
by eazyb81 on
Aug 29, 2008 5:14 PM EDT
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But if that collection of crap is under contract
There is a logjam. Nobody is going to want those players and the Royals aren’t a rich team that can afford to just release them. It’s not a logam of great talent, but a lot of bodies with nowhere to put them.
by thejd44 on
Aug 29, 2008 7:50 PM EDT
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Again--
Gload —> Bench
Teahen —> Non-tender
So you have…
Jose Guillen —> right field
Billy Butler —> designated hitter
Kila Monster —> first base
?? —> left field
Not even all the spots filled.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 29, 2008 8:08 PM EDT
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Teahen still has value
He showed up as a very good defensive OFer last year. Although his skill set isnt sexy, it is one that can help you win. I seriously doubt they would non tender him.
by alskor on
Aug 29, 2008 10:38 PM EDT
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For four million bucks?
Not worth it.
He’s got way more value in the NL anyways with double switches since he can play LF/RF/3B/1B.
Rowdy Hardy Fan Club member.
by doublestix on
Aug 29, 2008 10:41 PM EDT
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Todd Linden
He went ballistic in the PCL at age 25- .321/ .437/ .682 with 30 homers in 340 at bats
went back to being Todd Linden after that
by jpwf13 on Aug 29, 2008 9:45 AM EDT 0 recs
Except Linden struck out considerably more and walked less.
Purveyor of inane douchebaggery and general snarkiness
by RATW on
Aug 29, 2008 5:20 PM EDT
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